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#276939 - 10/05/15 08:01 PM 1,000 year flood
TeacherRO Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 03/11/05
Posts: 2574
following the flooding in South Carolina. Seventeen and some inches of rain...finally over. Will add a link


Edited by TeacherRO (10/05/15 10:35 PM)

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#276940 - 10/05/15 08:14 PM Re: 1,000 year flood [Re: TeacherRO]
Bingley Offline
Veteran

Registered: 02/27/08
Posts: 1576
Horrible to behold...

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#277049 - 10/13/15 08:42 PM Re: 1,000 year flood [Re: TeacherRO]
brandtb Offline
Addict

Registered: 11/26/04
Posts: 505
Loc: S.E. Pennsylvania
like the 'Hundred-Year Floods' that happen every 20 years, this 'Thousand-Year Flood' will happen again in about 30 years.
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Univ of Saigon 68

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#277051 - 10/13/15 08:56 PM Re: 1,000 year flood [Re: TeacherRO]
Tjin Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 04/08/02
Posts: 1821
Not sure how those numbers are made up.

What I have been taught is that a 1 in 100 year incident, only applies for the chance at any given time, under the same base circumstances. It does not translate to 'happens once in a 100 years'. (not sure if that was clear, but find I even hard to explain in my native language)
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#277079 - 10/15/15 11:01 AM Re: 1,000 year flood [Re: TeacherRO]
adam2 Offline
Addict

Registered: 05/23/08
Posts: 477
Loc: Somerset UK
A one hundred year flood is not to be expected on a 100 year cycle. It SHOULD mean that in any year there is a one in a hundred chance of such a flood happening.

In practice such floods do sometimes occur more frequently than might be expected, perhaps because of local changes to terrain, changes in land use, or perhaps because the initial observations happened to be made during a long run of unusually benign weather.

Likewise a one thousand year flood SHOULD mean a one in a thousand chance each year, NOT a thousand year rota.
Such events also sometimes seem to occur more often than might be expected, for reasons already given.
Also in most locations there are no accurate records going back that far, so a lot of estimating is involved.

A basic understanding of statistics also explains a lot ! Take a large country like the USA and make a list of the thousand largest towns.
On average, a "once in a thousand year" flood might be expected once in a thousand years AT ANY SPECIFIC LOCATION, or about once a year somewhere.

And remember that some estimates of flood risk may be a simple lie in order to ramp up real estate prices.
"above the thousand year flood line" might a simple advertising claim, especialy if made by someone selling new homes.

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#277140 - 10/19/15 10:28 PM Re: 1,000 year flood [Re: TeacherRO]
ki4buc Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 11/10/03
Posts: 710
Loc: Augusta, GA
Just backing up what adam2 said.

It's a statistical estimate of risk. It serves many purposes including setting insurance rates and prioritizing mitigation. If 99% of the time your flood height is below 25 feet, no "need" to build it 30 feet (though most would to give an engineering "fudge" factor or 20%).

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#277149 - 10/20/15 07:53 PM Re: 1,000 year flood [Re: TeacherRO]
TeacherRO Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 03/11/05
Posts: 2574
...the problem is that this likelihood is changing. My grand parents saw an event once in their lifetimes; I'll see it three time and my kids, well, that's hard to know

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