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#266918 - 01/29/14 03:59 PM Re: Sheltering from a low-yield nuclear explosion [Re: Brangdon]
JerryFountain Offline
Addict

Registered: 12/06/07
Posts: 418
Loc: St. Petersburg, Florida
AFLM,

You said "A low yield 1 Kt explosion would typically kill around 20,000-30,000 (blast and fall out) people in a high density population centre with many suffering severe burns."

I would expect this to be an exeptionally large number and I cannot be support it with the data you have presented. Even using the numbers from Japan, which are way too high for an American city, it would be hard to justify 20 to 30,000 deaths. Using the major damage radius of .5 miles for a 10 kt blast we find .79 square miles of major damage. For the 1 kt blast a radius of about .2 miles is .13 square miles of damage. Expect 4 times the area, so this is on the high end of Hiroshima (a 16 kt blast) using the 10kt number and way too high for Nagasaki (a 21 kt blast).

These are also for air blasts over tightly packed areas of poorly constructed (for protection from air blast) structures. Many (some estimates suggest 50%) of the deaths in these areas were from fire (see the effects of the firebombing on the Japanese cities. The nearest survivor was in a concrete building only 560 feet away (total about 2000 feet from 16 kt). For a ground blast in a major US or UK city like New York the effects would be far less.

Fallout deaths would depend largely on the sheltering, rescue and evacuation efforts taken after the blast. The fallout deaths in Japan were largly caused by a total lack of understanding of the problem by the residents and the government.

Respectfully,

Jerry

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#266924 - 01/29/14 04:41 PM Re: Sheltering from a low-yield nuclear explosion [Re: Brangdon]
adam2 Offline
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Registered: 05/23/08
Posts: 474
Loc: Somerset UK
A nuclear weapon used by terrorists is almost certainly going to be either a ground burst, or very close to the ground.

It seems unlikely that terrorist groups will have the technology to make an effective rocket or missile that is both reliable and able to escape modern air defences.

A relatively crude home made weapon is unlikely to be light enough for hand delivery, so that suggests delivery by car or truck.
A less likely tactic would be detonation near the top of a large building, perhaps under the guise of delivering something heavy via a freight elevator.

There would be virtualy no hope for those very close to the blast, but as others post, survival at relatively modest distances is possible.

The distance at which survival would be likely would depend greatly on local factors. Presuming a regular grid layout of streets, then if the blast can be directly viewed, within say a mile, then the risk is likely to be severe.
On the other hand, a blast only a few hundred feet away might be survivable if several substantial buildings intervened snd thereby sheltered one.
The heat flash can kill, but an intervening building (even if it shortly afterwards burns down) has considerable sheltering effect.
The prompt radiation can kill, but an intervening substantial building gives a lot of protection (even if is is subsequently destroyed by the blast)

Fall out takes some minutes to some hours to become dangerous.

My action would be to run away from the blast if out in the open, and to shelter in place if already indoors.

Even the not very fit should be able to move a mile in 15 minutes, and a mile is a usefull distance when considering the relatively local effects of a small nuclear weapon.

If you realise what has happened before everyone else, you might be able to get a taxi or a bus, before everyone else has the same idea.

Unless you EDC a Geiger counter, a small nuclear explosion might initialy resemble a very large conventional explosion, such as might be caused by a large truck bomb.
If in the open, getting someplace else should be the first prioity.

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#267237 - 02/09/14 10:24 AM Re: Sheltering from a low-yield nuclear explosion [Re: Brangdon]
quick_joey_small Offline
Addict

Registered: 01/13/09
Posts: 571
Loc: UK
There was an episode on this in 'Surviving Disaster'.
The link to the series doesn't work from the UK.
So here's the wikipedia entry:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surviving_Disaster_(TV_series)

qjs

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#267334 - 02/13/14 04:48 AM Re: Sheltering from a low-yield nuclear explosion [Re: Brangdon]
Arney Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 09/15/05
Posts: 2485
Loc: California
Originally Posted By: Brangdon
...after about half an hour it can be worth moving out to seek a building that provides better shelter, if you know of one...

I thought this was the most interesting point to me. Instead of avoiding fallout at all costs, exposing yourself to it could be worth it if you can get to safer shelter in a reasonable time to ride out the rest of the fallout event.

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#276194 - 08/13/15 11:45 AM Re: Sheltering from a low-yield nuclear explosion [Re: Arney]
adam2 Offline
Addict

Registered: 05/23/08
Posts: 474
Loc: Somerset UK
A very large explosion has occurred in China.
There is NO SUGGESTION WHATSOEVER that this is a nuclear explosion, it is believed to be an accident involving dangerous goods.

The scale of destruction has however been compared to that expected from a low yield nuke.

A study of these pictures certainly suggests little hope for those very close to the blast, but a reasonable chance of survival a mile away.

Chinese disaster, pictures

I must again stress that this is a conventional explosion, but of a size arguably comparable to a low yield nuclear weapon as might be used by terrorists.
Interesting though tragic viewing.

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#276195 - 08/13/15 01:58 PM Re: Sheltering from a low-yield nuclear explosion [Re: Brangdon]
chaosmagnet Offline
Sheriff
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 12/03/09
Posts: 3819
Loc: USA
My thoughts and prayers with the people of Tianjin.

This seems like it could be a case study of what happens when emergency responders and healthcare facilities are completely saturated. Let's hope that there's a way for us to get some lessons learned out of this.

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#276218 - 08/15/15 07:13 AM Re: Sheltering from a low-yield nuclear explosion [Re: adam2]
JeffMc Offline
Member

Registered: 05/10/15
Posts: 129
Loc: Northwest Florida
Early indications suggest improper firefighting techniques may have been a major causative or contributing factor, specifically, application of water to fight fire in the presence of calcium carbide, which reacts with water to produce acetylene, the explosion of which may have then triggered a secondary, larger, detonation of nearby ammonium nitrate.

Spraying water around unidentified-chemical storage areas is often a Very Bad Thing. When these disasters occur, sometimes the chemicals were stored, handled or (un)labeled illegally or improperly, regulation or enforcement was inadequate or absent, or firefighter/first responder training, leadership, SOPs, or fire pre-planning and risk assessment were inferior, or, more commonly, there was some combination of these factors at work.

Ports and harbors are unique points for both concentration and risk exposure of vast quantities of hazardous materials, including toxic, highly flammable and explosive material with multiple potential combinations and reactions. Ports and harbors are also often adjacent to population centers.

See, e.g., the Texas City explosion that was America's deadliest industrial accident; the Phoenix City explosion; the West Loch explosion; and the Halifax explosion in 1917 that killed 2000 people.

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#276219 - 08/15/15 07:38 AM Re: Sheltering from a low-yield nuclear explosion [Re: adam2]
JeffMc Offline
Member

Registered: 05/10/15
Posts: 129
Loc: Northwest Florida
Originally Posted By: adam2
... A relatively crude home made weapon is unlikely to be light enough for hand delivery, so that suggests delivery by car or truck. ... Unless you EDC a Geiger counter, a small nuclear explosion might initialy resemble a very large conventional explosion, ...


My fear for the delivery of an actual terrorist nuclear device would be in a standard shipping container aboard a cargo vessel, perhaps combined with a takeover of the cargo vessel itself in order to force it in as close as possible to, e.g., the civilian population ashore, a large cruise ship with many thousands aboard, or vulnerable fuel or chemical tanks, etc. It is extremely hard to stop a large cargo vessel and neither the military nor the USCG are likely to have the means immediately at hand to do so.

A far simpler but probably far more likely "dirty bomb"used to spread radioactive debris with a conventional explosion could be easily employed as you suggest, and many other means, as well.

Basic radiation detectors are becoming more affordable, easier to use, and more widespread. They are increasingly common in places like ERs and on fire apparatus. One time use detectors are very cheap, a simple continuous keychain-sized radiation detector like the "NukAlert" is available for under 150 bucks, and more sensitive sophisticated monitors are under 1,000 dollars.

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#276225 - 08/15/15 09:49 AM Re: Sheltering from a low-yield nuclear explosion [Re: Brangdon]
Tom_L Offline
Addict

Registered: 03/19/07
Posts: 690
It's true that radiation detectors are much more easily available to the general public than ever before. Apart from conventional Geiger counters there are solid-state alternatives that rely on photodiodes or CCD cameras. You could even get an app that transforms your smartphone into an improvised radiation detector. Not nearly as sensitive as a Geiger-Müller tube but sufficient for dangerous levels of Gamma radiation at least.

Also, it is easy to make your own Geiger counter if you have some basic electronics skills. I've played a lot with ex-Eastern Bloc Geiger tubes that are all over eBay. You can get one for $20 and they work very well. If anyone needs good schematics I'd be happy to help.

The only tricky part is the high-voltage power supply. This one is really good:
http://www.techlib.com/science/geiger.html

As far as power consumption (under 1mA if you know what you're doing) it is actually far superior to most commercial devices. A single 9V block battery or a couple of AA(A) cells will last a long time. The circuit can be calibrated to give a pretty accurate reading.

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#276228 - 08/15/15 05:16 PM Re: Sheltering from a low-yield nuclear explosion [Re: Brangdon]
JeffMc Offline
Member

Registered: 05/10/15
Posts: 129
Loc: Northwest Florida
If you are interested in this topic and happen to be involved in the medical part of disaster response, I highly recommend taking the Advanced Radiology Life Support Course. It's usually quite expensive as a freestanding course, but sometimes you can catch one offered as a conference pre-course at much lower cost, and the training is focused and excellent.

Also, if you are any sort of medical, LEO, Fire/rescue or other emergency responder, you are probably eligible to attend the National Center for Domestic Preparedness. They offer several different radiological/CBRNE related courses, and all expenses are always free of charge, including housing and meals. https://cdp.dhs.gov/

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