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#259968 - 04/26/13 07:36 PM Tourists swim 14 hours after boat sinks
Michael2 Offline
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Registered: 10/07/04
Posts: 83
Haven't seen this mentioned yet:

Tourists swim 14 hours after boat sinks

I'm curious what others think, since it seems that the people that didn't follow what I thought were the general rules (stay together, stay with boat) ended up surviving better.

This may simply be an example of the fact that chance plays a role in survival just as judgement does. You can do everything wrong and end up OK, and you can do everything right and not survive.

Were the survivors just lucky in this case? Or is there an argument that they made the right decision to swim for it?



Edited by Michael2 (04/26/13 07:37 PM)

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#259971 - 04/26/13 08:20 PM Re: Tourists swim 14 hours after boat sinks [Re: Michael2]
Russ Offline
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Registered: 06/02/06
Posts: 5357
Loc: SOCAL
I have a sense that these two were much stronger swimmers than the article mentions. Generally staying near where the mayday call would have SAR looking is the thing to do, but so is having survival gear and being dressed for the environment. Since there was no boat or liferaft to stay in, if you are in the water you may as well go for it.

There's a reason PLB's are waterproof.
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#259975 - 04/26/13 10:57 PM Re: Tourists swim 14 hours after boat sinks [Re: Russ]
hikermor Offline
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They apparently had no signaling gear either with them or attached to the floatation. That would have made a huge difference. Everyone was very lucky, all around.

They were very fortunate to be in warm water. Their life expectancy off the coast here in southern California would have been about an hour,unless they would hve been wearing wetsuits; their are cases of wetsuited survivors lasting for more than 24 hours.
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#260026 - 04/28/13 08:15 PM Re: Tourists swim 14 hours after boat sinks [Re: Russ]
Brangdon Offline
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Registered: 12/12/04
Posts: 1204
Loc: Nottingham, UK
Originally Posted By: Russ
so is having survival gear and being dressed for the environment.
They were wearing lifejackets by the time they were in the water. She was wearing a swimming costume and a sun-dress, which sounds appropriate to me. They abandoned most of their clothes to swim better.

It sounds like they got to land after 14 hours, and the crew got rescued after 23. It also seems like they could see land when the conditions were right. If I could see land, I'd find it hard to resist the temptation to swim for it. It's hard to spot people in water; they mention a helicopter missing both them and the crew.
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#260027 - 04/28/13 09:22 PM Re: Tourists swim 14 hours after boat sinks [Re: Michael2]
AKSAR Offline
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Registered: 08/31/11
Posts: 1233
Loc: Alaska
In my opinion they were extremely lucky. The usual advice to stay together and stay with the boat is appropriate in almost all cases (exception noted below).

The article indicates captain had managed to send a Mayday with coordinates. It is very difficult for rescuers to spot people in the water from the air or from another boat, but a group of four people is always easier to spot than one or even two people. Also, even if the boat sinks there will usually be some amount of floating debris that also aids spotting by rescuers. Perhaps had they all stayed together they might have all been spotted sooner?

As noted by hikermor, cold water is also an issue. With a life jacket, by remaining still and huddling in a group you increase your survival time. When swimming, you usually cool quicker. Even though your muscles put out heat from the exercise, you are constantly flushing cold water over your body. The net effect is that in most cases you cool quicker.

Note that "Soon after, they also lost sight of land amid the rain." They could as easily have ended up swimming away from land rather than towards it. Also, even a slight amount of current could have carried them further from their destination.

All in all they were extemely lucky, in my opinion. About the only situation where swimming for land might be the best choice is when there is little or no possibility of rescue. If you are out by yourself, in a seldom traveled area, and left no word with anyone about your plans so no rescue will be launched, then it might make sense to swim for it. Otherwise, staying with the boat is the best plan.

There will always be a few lucky exceptions, but almost always you have better odds staying with the boat.
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#260028 - 04/28/13 10:09 PM Re: Tourists swim 14 hours after boat sinks [Re: Michael2]
Russ Offline
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Registered: 06/02/06
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Per http://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/St-Lucia/seatemp, the water temp off St Lucia was about 77 deg F. as I read the chart. What's the survival stats say about survival times in 77 deg water?
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#260031 - 04/28/13 11:04 PM Re: Tourists swim 14 hours after boat sinks [Re: Russ]
hikermor Offline
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Registered: 08/26/06
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The best I can come up with is a small scale graphic on page 11 of [/u]The Survival Book[u], authored by Paul Nesbitt, Alonzo Pond, and William Allen, 1959. The chart reflects February conditions, and indicates that the victims were in Area F, where the survival period is indefinite and excessive fatigue is the more likely cause of death. Per their map, if you fall overboard, best do it in the tropics, not on the west coast.
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#260032 - 04/28/13 11:48 PM Re: Tourists swim 14 hours after boat sinks [Re: Russ]
AKSAR Offline
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Registered: 08/31/11
Posts: 1233
Loc: Alaska
Originally Posted By: Russ
Per http://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/St-Lucia/seatemp, the water temp off St Lucia was about 77 deg F. as I read the chart. What's the survival stats say about survival times in 77 deg water?
If memory serves, Dr. Giesbrecht defines cold water as anything below about 20 C (68 F). Survival time (with floatation) varies a lot, depending on body mass, gender, water temperature, etc. See the graph at http://www.coldwaterbootcamp.com/pages/1_10_60v2.html

In the case under discussion, water temperature clearly wasn't a major issue. The mere fact that they survived in the water for 14 hours demonstrates that. However, most places outside the tropics don't have water that warm. For the general case, water temperature is often (or usually?) a significant issue. Water that may be warm enough for a short swim could be lethal with long exposure.
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#260034 - 04/29/13 02:21 AM Re: Tourists swim 14 hours after boat sinks [Re: Russ]
rafowell Offline
Enthusiast

Registered: 11/29/09
Posts: 258
Loc: Southern California
Originally Posted By: Russ
Per http://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/St-Lucia/seatemp, the water temp off St Lucia was about 77 deg F. as I read the chart. What's the survival stats say about survival times in 77 deg water?

Essentially, at 77 deg F, hypothermia is not going to be an issue.

77 deg F is 25 deg C, and this chart shows 30 hrs to indefinite for that temperature, even naked: Survival Time in Hours in Cold Water

For colder water, body fat and clothing are big factors - see:
PREDICTED WATER IMMERSION SURVIVAL TIMES FOR ANTI- EXPOSURE ENSEMBLES

This seems to be a good site on the topic: Cold Water Survival


Edited by rafowell (04/29/13 02:46 AM)
Edit Reason: Added link
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#260036 - 04/29/13 02:56 AM Re: Tourists swim 14 hours after boat sinks [Re: Michael2]
bacpacjac Offline
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Registered: 05/05/07
Posts: 3601
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Interesting site. Thanks, rafowell!
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#260037 - 04/29/13 03:10 AM Re: Tourists swim 14 hours after boat sinks [Re: Michael2]
Leigh_Ratcliffe Offline
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Registered: 03/31/06
Posts: 1355
Loc: United Kingdom.
Every one seems to be missing the basic point here which is that the boat was not properly equipped.
No life raft, no distress beacon, no bail out bag.
The BBC reported that the boat took around 5 min to sink. In a bail out situation 5 mins is practically forever.


That story also tells you that there is either no air sea rescue on St Lucia (which I doubt as it is a British colony) or that no one heard the distress call.


Edited by Leigh_Ratcliffe (04/29/13 03:24 AM)
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#260038 - 04/29/13 04:03 AM Re: Tourists swim 14 hours after boat sinks [Re: Leigh_Ratcliffe]
AKSAR Offline
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Registered: 08/31/11
Posts: 1233
Loc: Alaska
Originally Posted By: Leigh_Ratcliffe
That story also tells you that there is either no air sea rescue on St Lucia (which I doubt as it is a British colony) or that no one heard the distress call.

Apparently the distress call was indeed heard and a rescue was launched. From St. Lucia police detail rescue after boat sinking:
Quote:
When authorities received the captain's distress call, they dispatched a boat immediately, but it took 30 minutes to reach their location, Leonce said.

Police also dispatched a helicopter and a small plane, and about nine private boat owners helped in the search, which was called off Sunday night and resumed early Monday, he said.

"Visibility was very poor on Sunday," he said. "The weather conditions were not the best. It was raining intermittently, with sometimes very heavy showers."


From the two articles it appears that the boat sank sometime in the late afternoon, in poor weather. As is usually the case, it took time to start the search. The search was suspended at dark and resumed the next day.

No one disputes that they would have been better off had they had gear such as a plb, flares, a strobe or flashlight, etc. However, the question in the original post was whether they made the right decision to swim for it rather than stay together where the boat sank. To repeat what I said upthread, people in the water are very hard to spot, but group of four people is much easier to spot than a group of two. Swimming for shore worked out for them in this case, but in my opinion they were very lucky they made it.

In most situations of this nature the best odds are to stay with the boat.



Edited by AKSAR (04/29/13 04:56 AM)
Edit Reason: added comments at bottom
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#260041 - 04/29/13 07:01 AM Re: Tourists swim 14 hours after boat sinks [Re: AKSAR]
Herman30 Offline
Addict

Registered: 08/08/06
Posts: 495
Loc: Finland
Originally Posted By: AKSAR

Apparently the distress call was indeed heard and a rescue was launched. From St. Lucia police detail rescue after boat sinking:
[quote]When authorities received the captain's distress call, they dispatched a boat immediately, but it took 30 minutes to reach their location, Leonce said.

So if the swimmers would have stayed at the site of the sinking they would have been rescued after half an hour. That is how I understand it.

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#260051 - 04/29/13 12:01 PM Re: Tourists swim 14 hours after boat sinks [Re: Herman30]
Russ Offline
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Registered: 06/02/06
Posts: 5357
Loc: SOCAL
Didn't the article say they stayed near the SAR datum/sinking location an hour before swimming for St Lucia?
Remind me to bring my own bail-out kit if I ever go sport fishing in the Caribbean.
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Better is the Enemy of Good Enough.
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#260063 - 04/29/13 04:50 PM Re: Tourists swim 14 hours after boat sinks [Re: Herman30]
AKSAR Offline
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Registered: 08/31/11
Posts: 1233
Loc: Alaska
Originally Posted By: Herman30
Quote:
When authorities received the captain's distress call, they dispatched a boat immediately, but it took 30 minutes to reach their location, Leonce said.

So if the swimmers would have stayed at the site of the sinking they would have been rescued after half an hour. That is how I understand it.

Originally Posted By: Russ
Didn't the article say they stayed near the SAR datum/sinking location an hour before swimming for St Lucia?

I wouldn't take any of the time lines quoted too literally. For the swimmers who "stayed near the SAR datum/sinking location an hour", this would be accurate only if they checked their watch and kept good notes. It is entirely possible that for those under stress it seemed like an hour, but it could easily have been much less. Likewise for the rescue, you are assuming that the authorities heard the Mayday call directly from the captain (not relayed via other boaters), and that there was no time lag to find an available boat and dispatch it to the location. We also shouldn't assume that a hurried Mayday location was entirely accurate, or that it didn't get garbled in transmission.

There is often a good deal of confusion in these situations.
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#260065 - 04/29/13 05:31 PM Re: Tourists swim 14 hours after boat sinks [Re: AKSAR]
Russ Offline
Geezer

Registered: 06/02/06
Posts: 5357
Loc: SOCAL
Originally Posted By: AKSAR
... There is often a good deal of confusion in these situations. ...
Too true.
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Better is the Enemy of Good Enough.
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#260071 - 04/29/13 08:36 PM Re: Tourists swim 14 hours after boat sinks [Re: AKSAR]
hikermor Offline
Geezer in Chief
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Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 7705
Loc: southern Cal
What were the currents doing while this situation developed? Tides can affect their location, along with the factors already mentioned, if you get my drift....
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#260312 - 05/05/13 11:49 AM Re: Tourists swim 14 hours after boat sinks [Re: AKSAR]
Brangdon Offline
Veteran

Registered: 12/12/04
Posts: 1204
Loc: Nottingham, UK
Originally Posted By: AKSAR
group of four people is much easier to spot than a group of two.
They did try to keep as a group of four. The captain and first mate agreed with the tourists to swim for shore, and they were still together, after swimming a while, when they saw the plane and helicopter (which didn't see them). Swimming may have caused them to separate quicker, or it may not.

Here's some rank speculation: it sounds like the tourists were better swimmers. They say they swam faster attempting to reach the search team, and that when they failed to reach it is also when they lost sight of the crew; so perhaps the crew couldn't keep up with that burst of speed. The tourists may have thought if they got themselves rescued, they could tell the search team where the other two were. (It's possible that the crew are refusing interviews because they don't interpret being abandoned as kindly.)

I agree separating was a mistake, although I see that as a different choice to deciding to leave the boat and swim for shore. For me that partly depends on how much of the boat was still above water, which I can't figure out from reports.

Originally Posted By: Herman30
So if the swimmers would have stayed at the site of the sinking they would have been rescued after half an hour. That is how I understand it.
When they saw the plane and helicopter, that search team was between the swimmers and land. Perhaps even though they tried to stay in the same location, they'd drifted further from land. Either that or the search team was looking in the wrong location, which seems unlikely. Either way, the four of them were swimming towards the search team, not away from it. (I think it unlikely that there was an earlier search team, closer to the boat, which the tourists didn't notice.)

(There's slightly more information in a later interview on WRKR.
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