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#237210 - 12/11/11 04:42 AM Re: Best response to always get out of town? [Re: dweste]
LesSnyder Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 07/11/10
Posts: 1680
Loc: New Port Richey, Fla
the 04/05 hurricane season down here added "run from the water, hide from the wind" and "hunker down" to public domain usage...feel free to use them... at least we get a couple of days warning

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#237217 - 12/11/11 07:34 AM Re: Best response to always get out of town? [Re: hikermor]
Mark_R Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 05/29/10
Posts: 863
Loc: Southern California
Originally Posted By: hikermor
Interestingly enough, southern California has experienced wildfires which demand excavation. These have occurred with no significant disruption or turmoil. Typically the refuge centers are not fully utilized. This may have something to do with a fairly robust infrastructure and generally competent emergency services.


It had less to do with the refugee shelters and more to do with being able to sleep on friends couches. Despite what was being broadcast on the television, half a million people did not end up at the Q or Del Mar. Everybody I know that evacuated ended up at family or friends houses. Also, traffic was a problem in the hours following the evacuation orders. Not a bad the the recent power outage, but compatible to peak rush hour.

On a side note, there was the normal panic buying of gasoline and bottled water. I think that no matter what the emergency, do not expect to be able to obtain those once the public becomes aware of the problem.

IMHO, unless evacuation is required, it's best to stay put and wait it out. At the very least, you'll miss the worst of the traffic while using your stored supplies.
_________________________
Hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

The object in life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane

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#237229 - 12/11/11 08:25 PM Re: Best response to always get out of town? [Re: Dagny]
Eugene Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 12/26/02
Posts: 2995
Originally Posted By: Dagny
Excellent response, Susan.

Unless I happen to be up at 3:00 or 4:00 a.m. when the crisis occurs and can get the car packed and moving within minutes, "bugging out" by vehicle would be a slow slog. During which time even a full tank may run out before we reached the Beltway.

Everyday traffic here has become a nightmare for several hours of the day.

9/11/01 provided some hint of a crisis evacuation (many people gave up on cars and mass transportation and walked several miles to get home) but in that case most residents of DC stayed in DC, it was the Virginia and Maryland commuters evacuating. Add DC's population to that mix (and no or few gas stations in much of the city) and it gets exponentially more difficult.

One encouraging aspect of the 9/11 evacuation in DC is that it was remarkably civil. Everyone I know who experienced it in cars and on foot, spoke of widespread camaraderie and consideration that day. Without exception, I watched a river of vehicles in my neighborhood obeying traffic lights and stop signs in a lawful manner that you do not see on a normal day.

About 30% of DC adults don't have vehicles. A higher percentage than New Orleans when Hurricane Katrina hit.

What are those people going to do?

I keep my fuel tank topped off but the more thought I've given to evacuation these past few years, it seems like a very poor strategy in most conceivable situations. And futile in others.



I wonder if it differs depending where you are in the city. My wife worked downtown and on 9/11 stop lights might as well have been non existent. Then there were a couple small parking lots where you hand the attendant your $ and keys and they park your car, those attendants must have left already because people had to break into the key shack then move cars that were blocking theirs. I saw one guy back a car up on to the sidewalk then get out and just leave it running with the door opened and they get in his car and drive away.

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#237235 - 12/11/11 11:02 PM Re: Best response to always get out of town? [Re: dweste]
JBMat Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 03/03/09
Posts: 745
Loc: NC
If it was some wide-spread disaster, I might try to get to the in-laws who live in the middle of no-place but have a farm and a ranch.

Failing that, bug-in-place seems to be the best option. Not in a flood zone. Neighbors are all retired/current/former military, I know two are as good a shot as I am, if not a little better. Water is not an issue. Food storage is ok. Support grp is close by. I can walk to the closest shelter.

I think I'm staying put.

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#237243 - 12/12/11 01:22 AM Re: Best response to always get out of town? [Re: dweste]
ironraven Offline
Cranky Geek
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/08/05
Posts: 4642
Loc: Vermont
No, your best bet is to stay where you are unless it involves short term evacuation. ESPECIALLY in a TEOTAWKI environment.
_________________________
-IronRaven

When a man dare not speak without malice for fear of giving insult, that is when truth starts to die. Truth is the truest freedom.

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#237246 - 12/12/11 02:07 AM Re: Best response to always get out of town? [Re: dweste]
Eugene Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 12/26/02
Posts: 2995
Depends on where you are. Before I moved staying put would be pointless, I was surrounded by people expecting handouts who were fine with taking what I had even during normal times.

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#237247 - 12/12/11 02:08 AM Re: Best response to always get out of town? [Re: dweste]
ki4buc Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 11/10/03
Posts: 710
Loc: Augusta, GA
From an Emergency Management perspective, staying put is the best option. Not because of some government conspiracy to control people, but just due to the sheer logistics of moving people. Each vehicle needs gasoline and each vehicle occupies lane space. Of course, with planned evacuations people like to fill up their camper, the 25 foot trailer, and their other two cars taking up space. I cannot blame them, but if you were hoping to get out quickly and this was "life or death", you'd probably be disappointed.

The only reason you would want to evacuate is if you or your shelter are physically in danger, or will be in danger within the amount of time it takes to evacuate.

I'd say double or triple any estimates you have for things. Your drive that normally takes 1 hour, assume it will take 4 - 6.

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#237257 - 12/12/11 12:33 PM Re: Best response to always get out of town? [Re: dweste]
Eugene Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 12/26/02
Posts: 2995
Thats one of the reasons I have tools such as CB, scanner, GPS, maps, and go out and explore the back roads, I don't want to have to be stuck in traffic because I did have to leave the house. I've been stuck in traffic before, for example PA will shut down a highway lane during rush hour to repaint the lines so you'll spend hours stop and go. I've learned to listen on the CB for traffic slow downs and get off and take side roads to bypass them.

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#237318 - 12/13/11 04:56 AM Re: Best response to always get out of town? [Re: dweste]
dweste Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 02/16/08
Posts: 2463
Loc: Central California
So, perhaps looking at the downside can additionally illuminate the question.

If you immediately bug-out when a disaster of unclear proportions / unknown or unknowable variables looms, is it fair to assume you will generaly increase chances of survival and can return if and when said disaster ends or is determined to be something suitable for bugging-in?

If such a disaster threatens to be quickly lethal to those who bug-in and you do not immediately bug-out, are your chances for survival better or worse than those who immediately hit the road?


Edited by dweste (12/13/11 05:05 AM)

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#237346 - 12/13/11 08:41 PM Re: Best response to always get out of town? [Re: dweste]
Richlacal Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 02/11/10
Posts: 778
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
I would think for the unprepared,chances for survival would be pending on luck alone,Anyone here would quickly point out that luck is not enough!

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