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#240444 - 02/02/12 04:47 PM Re: Playing the odds - interesting but not factual [Re: bacpacjac]
hikermor Offline
Geezer in Chief
Geezer

Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 7705
Loc: southern Cal
I always tuck a few bandaids in my wallet. It is amazing how often they come in handy - someone has an owwie, you whip out the bandaid, problem solved and life goes on. I also EDC (or try to) a bandanna in my back pocket - multipurpose and extremely versatile. If you need pressure right now, you get the bandanna right now. The hospital can readily deal with contamination issues, just as long as you get there alive and breathing. There is other stuff in the FAK, which varies in size, depending upon the situation. Lots of sterile dressings in there.

Jac, you need bandaids? I thought real mothers just kissed and made it well......


Edited by hikermor (02/02/12 11:47 PM)
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#240447 - 02/02/12 06:59 PM Re: Playing the odds - interesting but not factual [Re: TeacherRO]
TeacherRO Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 03/11/05
Posts: 2574
But...one incident is sad, but not mathematically important. Getting attacked by a wild animal is extremely unlikely. Somewhere north of 100,000 to one.

Preppers can plan and prepare for cool, sexy incidents...or the boring ones. I know its boring to pack a sweater rather than a 12' Rambo knife...but I do it anyway.

Zombies, sharks, aliens, roving bands of disgruntled bagel chefs....No.

Car breakdown, ice on the sidewalk, cut finger...Yes.

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#241170 - 02/15/12 12:59 AM Re: Playing the odds - interesting but not factual [Re: TeacherRO]
TeacherRO Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 03/11/05
Posts: 2574
Good point. But I pack for the boring stuff. I will need a snack bar long before I need my handy vampire repellant

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#243571 - 03/21/12 09:48 PM Re: Playing the odds - interesting but not factual [Re: TeacherRO]
TeacherRO Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 03/11/05
Posts: 2574
Cars very rarely catch fire and blow up. That's movie magic.

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#243578 - 03/22/12 01:15 AM Re: Playing the odds - interesting but not factual [Re: TeacherRO]
bacpacjac Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 05/05/07
Posts: 3601
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Originally Posted By: TeacherRO
Cars very rarely catch fire and blow up. That's movie magic.


But the catching on fire part isn't.
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#245671 - 05/06/12 07:02 PM Re: Playing the odds - interesting but not factual [Re: TeacherRO]
TeacherRO Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 03/11/05
Posts: 2574
tidal waves (tsunamis) are another rare event, but limited geographically.
If you can't smell the ocean, you are likely safe

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#245691 - 05/07/12 04:13 PM Re: Playing the odds - interesting but not factual [Re: TeacherRO]
Lono Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 10/19/06
Posts: 1013
Loc: Pacific NW, USA
Originally Posted By: TeacherRO
tidal waves (tsunamis) are another rare event, but limited geographically.
If you can't smell the ocean, you are likely safe


Don't forget fresh water - estimates on the local seiche from a 9.0M EQ has Lake Washington sloshing up to 18 feet back and forth, back and forth, wiping out shore line residents (and the cross-lake floating bridges). Its another low probability but high (proximate) risk event, which doesn't stop me from taking either bridge nearly every day.

I prep more for a house fire than I used to because I see more of them these days - not in terms of rescue hoods to play a hero, but planning and preparing to get my family out ASAP. Car accidents are actually more prevalent, both to experience one or several in one's lifetime but also to come upon them and possibly assist victims. I've done that 4 times now - mostly blunt trauma injuries and broken bones.

For the low probability but high risk events in life, I subscribe to the all hazards approach - if you're ready for a [EQ/zombie attack/attack of vampire vultures] you are better prepared for smaller and more common disasters. For me realistically that means floods, landslides, and power outages. Hardly sexy stuff, but its what we get most days around home. The CDC apparently agrees, they came out with an interesting Zombie Prep campaign that is intended tongue in cheek to get people better prepared for life's actual emergencies: http://www.cdc.gov/phpr/zombies.htm

"What first began as a tongue in cheek campaign to engage new audiences with preparedness messages has proven to be a very effective platform. We continue to reach and engage a wide variety of audiences on all hazards preparedness via Zombie Preparedness; and as our own director, Dr. Ali Khan, notes, 'If you are generally well equipped to deal with a zombie apocalypse you will be prepared for a hurricane, pandemic, earthquake, or terrorist attack.'"

You can download posters and novellas and even order t-shirts to celebrate the zombie prep campaign - driving home the point that somewhere among all this preparedness you might as well have a sense of humor, especially since humor can motivate people to receive learning about basic preparedness in a way that more serious information campaigns may not (its our old amygdalae messing with us again).

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#245704 - 05/07/12 07:28 PM Re: Playing the odds - interesting but not factual [Re: TeacherRO]
Arney Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 09/15/05
Posts: 2485
Loc: California
Originally Posted By: TeacherRO
If you can't smell the ocean, you are likely safe

True of most tsunamis. But the Japan tsunami flooded areas locals considered "far" from the sea, or even up in the mountains. It was very odd to see people interviewed in some mountain village that had been flooded with seawater because the tsunami had forced itself up the rivers and streams to that elevation.

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#245705 - 05/07/12 07:58 PM Re: Playing the odds - interesting but not factual [Re: TeacherRO]
Lono Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 10/19/06
Posts: 1013
Loc: Pacific NW, USA
It will be interesting to see if we learn anything from the tsunami in Japan, I hope so - for instance, initial studies indicate that vertical evacuation strategies were on the whole successful both in buildings considered tsunami safe and those not certified as such: the ability to climb to the 3rd or 4th story was the difference between life and death for many. We also saw this in Indonesia too. Many multi-story buildings rode out both tsunamis. I don't know the exact differences in terrain between Tohoku and the PNW Pacific coast, but there is a fair amount of low lying coastline backed by cliffs averaging 30-60 feet: a tsumani coming on shore would innundate low lying areas, and rise up to the cliff lines, and overtop it in many places (river outlets, lower lying areas). Coastal populations can be sparse, and the number of multi-story buildings are few: so why not proactively invest in rennovating existing buildings for 2-4 level tsunami safe structures? For instance, when rennovating local schools, incorporate strong multi-story structures into them; actually encourage local hotels to builds 3-4 story structures; encourage location or relocation away from low lying areas and back up above coast cliffs (although not so close as to fall victim to erosion); create advantages for building (at least parts of structures) with concrete and rebar rather than with multi-story particle board and nails, and give surrounding residents a shot at surviving a tsunami event.

You need a plan for raising folks above the tsunami, not just away from it. Lots of people were lost in the Japanese tsunami attempting to drive away on roadways, which often didn't take direct lines away from the inundation path. Traffic was another issue - and during tsunami evacuation drills, evacuation by private vehicle was prohibited because of congestion, loss of power to traffic lights, and related issues. The PNW has some similar issues on most spots - a long local highway running N-S close to the shoreline, with roads running inland to the East every 10-20 miles, if that: and not always alot of elevation gain along these E-W roads. There are also various logging roads that climb enough to out run most any tsunami, but not everywhere. And some of the particular low lying areas along the coast are where the most folks actually live, and there is no where for them to run right now.

Those who don't learn from events are damned to repeat them.

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#245713 - 05/08/12 12:20 AM Re: Playing the odds - interesting but not factual [Re: TeacherRO]
hikermor Offline
Geezer in Chief
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Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 7705
Loc: southern Cal
Originally Posted By: TeacherRO

If you can't smell the ocean, you are likely safe
unless you are situated in a coastal river valley or a deep coastal embayment. Our local tsunami surge model shows water reaching far up the Santa Clara and Ventura Rivers, well beyond the point where you can smell the ocean. Be sure you gain altitude when fleeing from the big T, not simply going inland.
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