Equipped To Survive Equipped To Survive® Presents
The Survival Forum
Where do you want to go on ETS?

Page 9 of 15 < 1 2 ... 7 8 9 10 11 ... 14 15 >
Topic Options
#230794 - 08/28/11 01:33 AM Re: Irene [Re: NuggetHoarder]
rebwa Offline
Enthusiast

Registered: 01/25/09
Posts: 295
Originally Posted By: NuggetHoarder
It sounds like Irene was completely overblown by the National Hurricane Center, media and government. It's come ashore with winds that aren't even Tropical Storm strength.

NOAA's Phony Hurricane
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2011/...h-33-mph-winds/

I can't wait to hear how the government saved thousands from this devastating major storm!



I wouldn’t call 80 mph sustained winds hitting Virginia, 7 dead, and millions without power overblown. And remember it’s just now hitting the major population centers.

Top
#230795 - 08/28/11 01:46 AM Re: Irene [Re: rebwa]
NuggetHoarder Offline
Member

Registered: 07/01/11
Posts: 145
Loc: Appalachians
Originally Posted By: rebwa
I wouldn’t call 80 mph sustained winds hitting Virginia, 7 dead, and millions without power overblown. And remember it’s just now hitting the major population centers.


It's a bad storm, but where are you getting 80mph sustained winds from? Here's a map of winds in the area and they haven't gone over 70 since it came ashore in North Carolina. Now the highest sustained winds are in the 60's. Sure, there will be gusts but this is nothing more than a tropical storm at this point.


Top
#230796 - 08/28/11 02:04 AM Re: Irene [Re: Jesselp]
Crowe Offline
Journeyman

Registered: 12/03/07
Posts: 88
Note to self, when you are better prepared then everyone else, prepare to get company. My initial bug-in plan was for 5, I am now sitting at 12 as had several family members that were in evac zones. Made a mad scramble for extra food and water today.

Personally, I expect little from the storm, but I would prefer to err on the side of caution, of course, there is still nothing from preventing a tree landing on my house. We will see how things progress.

Bugging in Brentwood Long Island.

C. Rowe

Top
#230797 - 08/28/11 02:31 AM Re: Irene [Re: NuggetHoarder]
Arney Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 09/15/05
Posts: 2485
Loc: California
Originally Posted By: NuggetHoarder
It sounds like Irene was completely overblown by the National Hurricane Center, media and government. It's come ashore with winds that aren't even Tropical Storm strength.

I was reading the blog and apparently this blogger is using a discrepancy between NOAA and Weather Underground wind readings as the basis of forming his opinion. In the comments section of that same post, I found this comment by someone who actually runs one of those WU weather monitoring stations.

Quote:
I have a Weather Underground personal weather station. http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KMDSEVER8
Not by any stretch do I think the wind speed measurements are close to reality. My speed is recorded on a deck in back of my house surrounded by eight 100 foot oak trees. My guess is that 90+% of the stations on weather underground do not have it set up to properly measure wind speed. I would use buoy’s at sea to measure wind speed. Personal weather stations on WU are for hobbyists mainly.

Top
#230799 - 08/28/11 03:18 AM Re: Irene [Re: NuggetHoarder]
Susan Offline
Geezer

Registered: 01/21/04
Posts: 5163
Loc: W. WA
Quote:
It sounds like Irene was completely overblown by the National Hurricane Center, media and government. It's come ashore with winds that aren't even Tropical Storm strength.


It isn't the WIND that is the most danger, it's the WATER!

Wind can knock down trees and power lines and rip shingles off houses and toss tree branches through windows. Big deal!

What do you think is going to happen with the storm surge in low areas? What about the people who live in basement apartments? How easy is it going to be to get to the elderly, infirm, handicapped afterwards with a lot of debris washed in? What about all the hospitals in the low areas whose generators are in the basement, and patients are dependent on them for life support?

What about sewage and garbage mixed with the seawater?

If the power is out, and the cell towers down, how many people have POTS to call for help?

If Irene makes an abrupt U-turn and heads toward Britain, what is the worst thing for the people who left? That they have to come back? SO WHAT? They've had an adventure with no negative results except maybe they missed a day or two of work or school, and were maybe forced to think about doing a little more disaster prep in the future.

Suppose the "National Hurricane Center, media and government" downplayed the danger, no one had evacuated (except ETSers) and Irene intensified and slammed into Long Island and Manhattan at a full-blast Cat 4? Would you feel better about it?

Jeez loueez!

Sue

Top
#230801 - 08/28/11 03:29 AM Re: Irene [Re: Susan]
bacpacjac Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 05/05/07
Posts: 3601
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Well said Sue!

Just because it isn't the apocolyse doesn't mean it won't have serious consequences, or that those effects weren't mitigated by the advance warnings. I can't imagine that the family of the boy who was killed when a tree crashed through his apartment roof are going to criticize the warnings as over-hyped.
_________________________
Mom & Adventurer

You can find me on YouTube here:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCT9fpZEy5XSWkYy7sgz-mSA

Top
#230806 - 08/28/11 03:40 AM Re: Irene [Re: Jesselp]
NuggetHoarder Offline
Member

Registered: 07/01/11
Posts: 145
Loc: Appalachians
Yes, the water is more dangerous BUT hurricanes are measured by wind velocity, not water. A CAT1 is 75mph sustained or higher.

No, a CAT4 would not make me feel better.

My point is that the forecast was for a CAT3 hitting North Carolina and a CAT1 hitting New York. It was, in actuality, not even a CAT1 when it made landfall in North Carolina on Friday. Here it is Sunday now and they are still calling it a hurricane.

I believe much of the delay in calling this a tropical storm is political. Lots of powerful interests need this to be a "hurricane" all the way into New York. I mean, come on, they shut down the entire transit system of New York for this. It better be a hurricane when it hits!

Top
#230808 - 08/28/11 04:04 AM Re: Irene [Re: NuggetHoarder]
Teslinhiker Offline
Veteran

Registered: 12/14/09
Posts: 1418
Loc: Nothern Ontario
Originally Posted By: NuggetHoarder


I believe much of the delay in calling this a tropical storm is political.


The original purpose of this thread was for prep related discussion ahead of and during a hurricane. Now that the hurricane did not live up to your expectations, please don't troll and try to turn this into a political bash thread as it will not serve any purpose other then to have the complete thread locked. There are plenty of other lesser forums on the internet that would probably welcome your assertions.
_________________________
Earth and sky, woods and fields, lakes and rivers, the mountain and the sea, are excellent schoolmasters, and teach some of us more than we can ever learn from books.

John Lubbock

Top
#230809 - 08/28/11 04:04 AM Re: Irene [Re: NuggetHoarder]
Susan Offline
Geezer

Registered: 01/21/04
Posts: 5163
Loc: W. WA
Wait a minute..... Do you mean you're POd because the weather report was incorrect???

And you think weather is totally predictable???

Do the weather guessers in KY always get the next day's prediction right, much less the one for three or four days ahead?

Sue

Top
#230817 - 08/28/11 05:11 AM Re: Irene [Re: NuggetHoarder]
Arney Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 09/15/05
Posts: 2485
Loc: California
Originally Posted By: NuggetHoarder
Here it is Sunday now and they are still calling it a hurricane.

Hurricanes, tropical cyclones, whatever you want to call them, are incredibly complex and large events that span hundreds of miles across. Things are not uniform throughout the whole storm but we need to make generalizations about the entire storm so people can have an idea of what to expect. Here's part of the Saturday 21:00 EDT statement from the National Hurricane Center:

Quote:
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL IN NEW ENGLAND AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...

...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE LOCATED OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA ROUGHLY 125 MILES...205 KM...TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES...390 KM FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

So, sustained winds of 80mph in a part of Irene determines the classification and it is still a Cat 1. The fact that hardly any of that faster, eastern part of Irene has actually passed over land means that any land wind readings are going to be much lower.

If you look at the storm track, Irene has spent most of its time to the east of land, so residents have been spared the brunt of Irene's fury for the most of its journey up the coast, regardless of whether it's a Cat 1 or 3 or whatever at any given time. We should be thankful that it has mostly tracked parallel to shore because that's probably why Irene seems somewhat of a dud so far compared to what many feared.

If Irene's track took it further to the west when it went over North Carolina (and many earlier projections did predict that), then places like Cape Hatterias might've observed hurricane strength winds as the eastern section of Irene passed over land.

It's not easy predicting the track or how strong a rapidly changing hurricane will be days in advance but it's the best we can do for now. I feel sympathy for these hurricane forecasters, emergency managers, and all these mayors and governors. Like our swine flu experience, the people charged with protecting our welfare are almost guaranteed a "damned if you do, and damned if you don't" experience regardless of what they do or how things actually turn out.

Top
Page 9 of 15 < 1 2 ... 7 8 9 10 11 ... 14 15 >



Moderator:  Alan_Romania, Blast, cliff, Hikin_Jim 
March
Su M Tu W Th F Sa
1 2
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16
17 18 19 20 21 22 23
24 25 26 27 28 29 30
31
Who's Online
0 registered (), 429 Guests and 467 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Newest Members
GallenR, Jeebo, NicholasMarshall, Yadav, BenFoakes
5367 Registered Users
Newest Posts
What did you do today to prepare?
by dougwalkabout
03/27/24 11:21 PM
Zippo Butane Inserts
by dougwalkabout
03/27/24 11:11 PM
Question about a "Backyard Mutitool"
by Ren
03/17/24 01:00 AM
Problem in my WhatsApp configuration
by Chisel
03/09/24 01:55 PM
New Madrid Seismic Zone
by Jeanette_Isabelle
03/04/24 02:44 PM
EDC Reduction
by EchoingLaugh
03/02/24 04:12 PM
Newest Images
Tiny knife / wrench
Handmade knives
2"x2" Glass Signal Mirror, Retroreflective Mesh
Trade School Tool Kit
My Pocket Kit
Glossary
Test

WARNING & DISCLAIMER: SELECT AND USE OUTDOORS AND SURVIVAL EQUIPMENT, SUPPLIES AND TECHNIQUES AT YOUR OWN RISK. Information posted on this forum is not reviewed for accuracy and may not be reliable, use at your own risk. Please review the full WARNING & DISCLAIMER about information on this site.