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#229573 - 08/10/11 01:26 AM Re: AA+ is that it? [Re: Alex]
chaosmagnet Offline
Sheriff
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 12/03/09
Posts: 3819
Loc: USA
Originally Posted By: Alex
ireckon, that's my thought exactly. So far I've got only GP100 .357 and S-12. Could you recommend something maybe even more useful for my "investment" collection, please? A rifle, a pistol?


Everyone should have a handgun (and train with it regularly). While a handgun is a compromise, often it's the best compromise for a given situation.

Everyone should have a rifle (and train with it, although it's not necessary to train as often as with a pistol). I'm partial to Modern Sporting Rifles (http://www.nssf.org/MSR/facts.cfm).

Personally, I have enough rifles and handguns for all the shooters in my household.

Shotguns are darn handy, and can't be beat for home defense from a static position.

If you're missing one of these, I'd suggest you'd start with what you're missing.

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#229574 - 08/10/11 01:27 AM Re: AA+ is that it? [Re: Alex]
Roarmeister Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 09/12/01
Posts: 960
Loc: Saskatchewan, Canada
Not trying to be political here, I just want to state some historical facts and perspective and give you my prediction for the future of the US.

When Canada was dropped to AA+ back in the '90s it amounted to a half point increase in interest rates but that in itself didn't last that long. It normalized over time. At the time the Federal Government was about 73% debt to GDP (which is less than what the US is now). After some severe cutting (approx. 14% of the budget) and increases in taxes, off-loading onto the provinces, deferred projects, practically wiped out our own military, etc. We honoured every debt because the consequences of not doing so would have been much much worse. The ratio of cutting spending to taxes was about 6-1. A value-added tax (the GST) replaced the hidden manufacturers tax and and added revenue. The reasoning is that a VAT is inherently more fair than an income tax as it is a tax on consumption. After about 8 years, the deficit came under control and then we enjoyed many years of surplus budgets until the crash of 2008 required stimulus monies. The bond agencies liked that and returned the AAA rating. Unfortunately, a few of the provincial governments (Quebec and Ontatrio) haven't learned their debt lesson and kept on spending and need some austerity.

We had to endure all kinds of name calling by the international community who likened our currency to the Canadian peso and being called an honoury third-world country. The CDN dollar dropped to 0.62 US dollar.

The insults hurt. That's why I tend to temper any comments regarding the US economic position even though the US is in worse financial shape now they Canada ever was.

We were lucky, in the sense that the world was on an economic upturn during our recovery and our expanding resource base helped us grow out of the situation. We've got resources that the rest of the world needs and especially our neighbour to the south.

I would expect that it would take at least 8-15 years before the US economy can recover and that's if the stars are aligned and the US goes back to the gold standard. Unemployment is going to remain very high. Current real unemployment is about 16% when you included the discouraged non-searchers not the fabricated 9.2%. Employment is the real driver of the economy. If interest rates moderate a couple of percentage points, the worse the debt situation will be, BUT people will be off the "cheap money" borrowing that stimulates inflation and encourages more debt. That time frame estimate is IF your government ever gets serious about handling the debt issue. 2.4T cuts is only a first step. Considering the US has more headroom and leeway to increase taxes than practically any nation on earth, an increase in taxes should be in the mix to recovery. I think the cuts should be closer to 5-6T and add an additonal 2T in taxes revenue. This will hurt the unemployment but in the medium and long term it will stimulate the economy because of less debt.

I have no economic degree (just a 2yr diploma) nor am I particularly wise about handling money as I was once down and nearly out financially. JMHO. I have to wish America all the best because 70% of our economy is tied to yours. (I, we, us) can't afford to throw stones even though you will hear a lot of this in the coming months and years.


Edited by Roarmeister (08/10/11 01:28 PM)

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#229645 - 08/10/11 11:04 PM Re: AA+ is that it? [Re: ireckon]
Susan Offline
Geezer

Registered: 01/21/04
Posts: 5163
Loc: W. WA
Quote:
So, should I stick with a failing investment, or should I sacrifice my credit score while saving a lot of money?


A few of my rail crews have been talking about exactly this problem. The conclusion they came to was to continue making the minimum payments on the $400,000 house and set in motion the plans to buy a $165,000 house (not that much different, now). Use the good credit to get the second house, then let the first one go. Make regular payments on the second home and repair the credit rating.

Sue

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#229651 - 08/11/11 02:12 AM Re: AA+ is that it? [Re: Susan]
ireckon Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 04/01/10
Posts: 1629
Loc: Northern California
Originally Posted By: Susan
Quote:
So, should I stick with a failing investment, or should I sacrifice my credit score while saving a lot of money?


A few of my rail crews have been talking about exactly this problem. The conclusion they came to was to continue making the minimum payments on the $400,000 house and set in motion the plans to buy a $165,000 house (not that much different, now). Use the good credit to get the second house, then let the first one go. Make regular payments on the second home and repair the credit rating.

Sue


That's what I'm thinking.

I know there are those out there who may see those actions as immoral. I don't. In the current system, banks treat me like I'm an enemy when all I want to do is modify/refinance to a lower rate. I have perfect credit and good income. Allowing people like me to modify to a lower rate would reduce the overall number of foreclosures, and would thereby save the banks money in the long run. They won't even let me modify at 80% loan-to-value. They're now requiring 70%, which is completely out of reach. They know this.

I played by the rules my entire life to get my high credit score. What do I get for it? I get "F-you go away". I can't even short sale right now because my payments are all caught up. Why should I continue to play by the rules in a system that hasn't kept their promise to me, and is even arrogant about it?

[/rant]
_________________________
If you're reading this, it's too late.

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#229659 - 08/11/11 04:29 AM Re: AA+ is that it? [Re: Alex]
haertig Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 03/13/05
Posts: 2322
Loc: Colorado
I don't see gold being of much use unless you're planning on plating contacts on electronic equipment. Other than that, what is it really good for except making Bling-Bling jewelry for people who want to call attention to themselves? It's just a heavy, soft, shiney metal that happens to conduct electricity well. Nothing really magical about it that I can see.

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#229663 - 08/11/11 08:51 AM Re: AA+ is that it? [Re: haertig]
NuggetHoarder Offline
Member

Registered: 07/01/11
Posts: 145
Loc: Appalachians
Originally Posted By: haertig
I don't see gold being of much use unless you're planning on plating contacts on electronic equipment. Other than that, what is it really good for except making Bling-Bling jewelry for people who want to call attention to themselves? It's just a heavy, soft, shiney metal that happens to conduct electricity well. Nothing really magical about it that I can see.

There's a good reason why gold has been chosen as money for the last 5,000+ years. It has all the qualities that make it the ideal money. There have been many forms of money... Stones, diamonds, carvings, fur, seashells, foodstuffs, and paper money to name only a few. All of those have shortcomings.

Gold is the perfect form of money because it is:
  • rare - unlike paper fiat currencies that can be created at will or like seashells that are virtually limitless, gold is scarce. This doesn't make gold worth more, but it certainly means that gold will not be worth less over time.
  • divisible - it is infinitely divisible and can be made into small or large coins and can be weighed with precision - unlike carvings of wood or seashells for instance.
  • homogeneous - my gold is the same as your gold. melt them together and there is no difference - unlike diamonds where every diamond is unique
  • portable - it is compact and can be easily carried to use in transactions - unlike Pacific Island stones or furs which can't be carried easily
  • durable - gold is extremely durable compared to other forms of money - unlike fur for instance which wears out and can be damaged easily or foodstuffs.
  • has intrinsic value - gold has intrinsic value because it is beautiful and can be made into other products and does not need a value assigned to it by others. paper currencies with no backing cannot stand up to this over the course of time since they have no intrinsic value.
  • Veritable - gold can easily be verified as genuine. Unlike paper currencies or even coins made with base metals, it is impossible to counterfeit gold coins. You might pass one off for a short time, but there are simple tests (weight, dimensions, specific gravity) that anyone can perform with the most rudimentary tools to confirm if your coin is genuine gold. (A ruler, a scale and a beaker of water in this case).
  • Workable - Gold is malleable and can be easily and cheaply worked into coinage or bars unlike some other metals that are very hard such as tungsten, or items that are expensive to fashion into their final state, such as wood carvings or diamonds.

Over the last 100 years or so, gold has been demonized as a barbaric relic and a terrible currency. This is put forward by those who want a currency that can be manipulated, controlled, and expanded at will, and to their advantage. This is to the detriment of the common man. The best currency for the poor man is gold since it's value cannot be diminished by the actions of bankers and politicians.

Eventually ALL paper currencies fail. They are ALWAYS replaced with gold. That is the history of mankind. You are right in the middle of one of those transitions and it's taking place right before your eyes. My friendly advice to all is to embrace this repetition of history, understand it, and protect yourself from the destruction of paper currencies that is taking place now throughout the western world.


Edited by NuggetHoarder (08/11/11 11:51 AM)
Edit Reason: added "workable"

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#229666 - 08/11/11 12:03 PM Re: AA+ is that it? [Re: NuggetHoarder]
unimogbert Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 08/10/06
Posts: 882
Loc: Colorado
Well said Nuggethoarder.

You can't eat gold. Nor can you eat paper money. Nor the figures on your computer printout representing what you "have" in the bank. Or the real estate you may be holding (unless it's under cultivation).

But there is a hierarchy to one's safety net.

Stored food, good neighbors, tools and materials for home repair, defense firearms, some barter goods, books of how to do things for oneself (home repair, gardening) should come first.

THEN hold some of the precious metals to preserve some of your earned wealth against loss of value in the paper money and the figures on the printout that no one will honor.

Gold having value seems absurd from a logic standpoint.
But from an empirical and historical standpoint - it works.

It cost a bottle of whiskey and an ounce of gold to get on a flight out of Saigon when it fell. Argentinians were trading gold rings as barter when their crisis occurred (after the govt seized their 401k-equivalent holdings BTW).

These are uncertain times. We are all struggling to figure out what the best strategy for future survival is.

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#229672 - 08/11/11 02:01 PM Re: AA+ is that it? [Re: unimogbert]
NuggetHoarder Offline
Member

Registered: 07/01/11
Posts: 145
Loc: Appalachians
Originally Posted By: unimogbert
We are all struggling to figure out what the best strategy for future survival is.


That's for sure. My thoughts on the best strategy goes something like this...

Let's pretend that last night the Chinese dumped all their treasury bond holdings and we all woke up this morning and the headlines said "US Dollar collapses, Treasuries in Freefall - Interest rates skyrocket" and "Banks Closed in Emergency Move"

Now, what set of circumstances in your personal life could you conjur up that would make you say "So what, that's not a big deal for me"

The answer is that you would own your own land free and clear, you would have zero debt, and a good portion of your land would be under cultivation and you would own some livestock. Most, if not all, of your daily food would come directly from your land or from your immediate neighbors. Like Unimogbert said, you'd also have stored food, good neighbors, tools and materials for home repair, defense firearms, some barter goods, and books of how to do things for oneself. Sounds a bit more like 1911 instead of 2011.

In addition to that, you'd need some wealth stored up. Gold and silver are obvious choices. Energy will also be an issue and you can either store it, which is difficult at best, or have something of value to trade for it.

Notice that by doing all these things you will have separated yourself, by and large, from the banking system. You are insulated.

Now we can go further into the details, like how would you get healthcare, but those are just details. When the dollar collapses, I guarantee that you will be able to find a doctor who will trade you a chicken for setting a broken arm. It really is that simple.

My main point is that to survive the collapse of the dollar, you have to separate yourself from the banking system as much as possible. Even with all this preparation, things won't be easy. It will be hard, but at least you'd have a fighting chance at getting through it relatively unscathed.

In the end, lots of politicians will be voted out, lots of bankers will die broke, and we will most definitely get a new currency. But it will take time - on the order of many months of unrest, upheaval and uncertainty. Currency collapses are never pretty.

We're still a ways off from the demise of the dollar. There is still plenty of time to get started. Going by history, the next phase in most currency collapses would be hyperinflation. That phase could start at anytime. Once the hyperinflation starts, the inevitable currency collapse will take place within months, not years.

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#229673 - 08/11/11 02:29 PM Re: AA+ is that it? [Re: NuggetHoarder]
Jeanette_Isabelle Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/13/06
Posts: 2946
Loc: Nacogdoches, Texas
Originally Posted By: NuggetHoarder
Like Unimogbert said, you'd also have stored food, good neighbors, tools and materials for home repair, defense firearms, some barter goods, and books of how to do things for oneself. Sounds a bit more like 1911 instead of 2011.

This sounds a bit like survival exercise/role play that some here have mocked. In it Jeanette has to barter. What does she have? Medical gear, other tools and the knowledge to use them.

What are we facing now? Potentially the same thing.

Jeanette Isabelle
_________________________
I'm not sure whose twisted idea it was to put hundreds of adolescents in underfunded schools run by people whose dreams were crushed years ago, but I admire the sadism. -- Wednesday Adams, Wednesday

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#229675 - 08/11/11 02:38 PM Re: AA+ is that it? [Re: Jeanette_Isabelle]
Russ Offline
Geezer

Registered: 06/02/06
Posts: 5357
Loc: SOCAL
True Jeanette, but one is real and the other virtual. Moving from the virtual world to the real world (where some peeps do not follow the rules) is easier said than done.
_________________________
Better is the Enemy of Good Enough.
Okay, what’s your point??

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