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#220371 - 03/28/11 11:16 AM Re: Tokyo tapwater unsafe for babies [Re: Arney]
Brangdon Offline
Veteran

Registered: 12/12/04
Posts: 1201
Loc: Nottingham, UK
Originally Posted By: Arney
Electricity will still be in short supply as the weather warms up and the hot, humid summer approaches.
That's likely to be the biggest real health consequence of the reactor failures. They probably won't be able to restart all the Fukushima reactors, they don't have spare capacity locally, and they don't have a national grid. I gather they rely on air-conditioning in summer, and some older people are at risk if they don't have power.

More on the power situation at Techworld.
_________________________
Quality is addictive.

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#221086 - 04/07/11 03:09 PM Re: Earthqauke in Japan [Re: stevenpd]
Arney Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 09/15/05
Posts: 2485
Loc: California
The biggest aftershock after March 11th just occurred. A 7.4. On any other day, this would've been a big quake all by itself. I'm not in front of a TV so I don't know what happened after the tsunami warning went out.

I just hope nothing got shaken loose at Fukushima Daiichi.

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#221236 - 04/09/11 03:21 PM Re: Earthqauke in Japan [Re: stevenpd]
Arney Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 09/15/05
Posts: 2485
Loc: California
This 75-year old gentleman has been stranded at his quake-ravaged home and hasn't seen a soul, including his wife, since the day the 9.0 quake and tsunami struck. Oh...and he's within the 20km evacuation zone of Fukushima Daiichi. These journalists stumbled across his house.

He knows about the evacuation order from listening to a battery-powered radio but he can barely walk and his car is stuck in the mud. His house is standing, but there's no power, no heat, no running water. Poor guy. Must've been incredibly lonely and desolate out there all by himself on top of the physical hardship.

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#221328 - 04/11/11 03:12 PM Re: Earthqauke in Japan [Re: stevenpd]
Arney Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 09/15/05
Posts: 2485
Loc: California
Although really only mentioned in the subheading of this news article, it's an illuminating bit of news. It says:

Quote:
Tens of millions of yen in cash and hundreds of locked safes have been handed in to police stations across northern Japan by people sifting through the debris of the March 11 earthquake and tsunami.

Granted, much of the cash and many of these safes may have been found by police, fire fighters, and Self-Defense Force soldiers, but maybe not. Numbers-wise, normal people sifting through the debris probably account for the most people, so they are probably the ones finding most of these valuables and turning them in.

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#222102 - 04/22/11 12:02 AM Re: Earthqauke in Japan [Re: stevenpd]
Arney Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 09/15/05
Posts: 2485
Loc: California
Was just reading this report on why the Japan quake was so large.

Apparently, current seismic understanding is that a fault typically only slips in isolated segments, but in the Japan quake, a number of different segments of the fault gave way together, resulting in the massive 9.0 quake. Sounds like that is primarily why seismologists had not predicted a larger quake (and resulting tsunami) to hit that region of Japan.

I'm curious if research like this will raise the hazard level of places like the Pacific Northwest or West Coast. That would be quite an economic cost if building codes were strengenthed for structures built in these areas.

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#222104 - 04/22/11 02:36 AM Re: Earthqauke in Japan [Re: Arney]
dougwalkabout Offline
Crazy Canuck
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 02/03/07
Posts: 2752
Loc: Alberta, Canada
Originally Posted By: Arney
Although really only mentioned in the subheading of this news article, it's an illuminating bit of news. It says:

Quote:
Tens of millions of yen in cash and hundreds of locked safes have been handed in to police stations across northern Japan by people sifting through the debris of the March 11 earthquake and tsunami.

Granted, much of the cash and many of these safes may have been found by police, fire fighters, and Self-Defense Force soldiers, but maybe not. Numbers-wise, normal people sifting through the debris probably account for the most people, so they are probably the ones finding most of these valuables and turning them in.


What's most surprising is that we find this surprising.

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#222115 - 04/22/11 02:31 PM Re: Earthqauke in Japan [Re: Arney]
Lono Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 10/19/06
Posts: 1013
Loc: Pacific NW, USA
Originally Posted By: Arney
Was just reading this report on why the Japan quake was so large.

Apparently, current seismic understanding is that a fault typically only slips in isolated segments, but in the Japan quake, a number of different segments of the fault gave way together, resulting in the massive 9.0 quake. Sounds like that is primarily why seismologists had not predicted a larger quake (and resulting tsunami) to hit that region of Japan.

I'm curious if research like this will raise the hazard level of places like the Pacific Northwest or West Coast. That would be quite an economic cost if building codes were strengenthed for structures built in these areas.


At least among emergency planners, the magnitude of the earthquakes in Chile, New Zealand and Japan raise some new questions about our general preparedness in the PNW, although if you pore into the research questions some have been asking these question for a while, the rest of us are just starting to notice their observations. The most significant realization I think is not that a 9.0 quake could hit here, everyone assumed that, but that the 9.0 could go on for 4-5 minutes: to this point most predictions were for shorter duration quakes, a minute or so of shaking. I think that was based on research of our most recent subduction zone quake a few hundred years ago. Longer duration wuakes may have some dire consequences not considered - liquefaction would be more severe, would be far more wide spread than typically assumed, and the basic safety of built structures not as good under the longer duration shakes. There are *lots* of places I wouldn't want to be in a M9.0 5 minute quake - and depending on the timing of the quake, lots of folks will be in those places.

Whether these predictions make their way into urban planning or building code is another matter - and maybe they shouldn't. I'm not an engineer, but I'm not sure very many structures can survive a nearby 9.0M quake; or put it another way, is there a way to retrofit existing structures, most built to pre-1970s codes, to survive such a shake. Or, should we continue to build structures and infrastructures on land that will be thoroughly liquified by a quake. I think the short answer to all this is no, we build as usual, not for ultimate survival - there is far too much investment in lands and built structures subject to liquefaction to abandon it, or rebuild it to a new standard. Fundamentally, Americans have a different perspective than the Japanese - we tend to bulldoze over our historical structures (there are exceptions of course), rather than design them to survive every contingency, including an M9.0 that might occur only every 500-700 years. America has only existed for half that amount of time: we may not have enough perspective to build for a longer duration disaster cycle. So we will lose a fair amount of this build investment and the people in them should an M9.0 happen in our lifetimes. A better question may be, can we make better decisions about infrastructure, such as gas pipelines, water systems, or, say, waterfront tunnels through liquefaction zones, such that they can survive this type of quake in better shape?

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#222123 - 04/22/11 03:22 PM Re: Earthqauke in Japan [Re: Lono]
Arney Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 09/15/05
Posts: 2485
Loc: California
Some really good points, Lono.

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#222127 - 04/22/11 03:35 PM Re: Earthqauke in Japan [Re: Lono]
Susan Offline
Geezer

Registered: 01/21/04
Posts: 5163
Loc: W. WA
"I think is not that a 9.0 quake could hit here, everyone assumed that, but that the 9.0 could go on for 4-5 minutes: to this point most predictions were for shorter duration quakes, a minute or so of shaking."

I don't know why people would think that after the 1964 Anchorage Earthquake. It was a 9.2 and lasted between 3-5 minutes (a quick search couldn't pin it down).

"...should we continue to build structures and infrastructures on land that will be thoroughly liquified by a quake."

Several posters here have pointed out the dangers of being in the S. Seattle area if a strong quake hit in the right place. The area is very susceptible to liquification. Right now, there is a fight to replace the existing elevated viaduct (same construction as the viaduct that collapsed in San Francisco in the 1989 Loma Prieta quake), and replace it with an UNDERGROUND TUNNEL! Right on the edge of Elliott Bay.

Unfortunately, the decisions are made by the same people who stand to make the most money. They aren't going to live there, they aren't going to work there. They don't mind setting up thousands of faceless strangers to die. They can look at the info provided by geologists and other scientists, and sweep it aside. If they take down the viaduct and build the tunnel, there is suddenly going to be a rather large patch of prime new real estate available in Seattle. And that's all they're looking at.

Science vs. Greed. And which do YOU think will win?

Sue

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#222370 - 04/27/11 01:32 AM Re: Earthqauke in Japan [Re: stevenpd]
Pete Offline
Veteran

Registered: 02/20/09
Posts: 1371
There is an ongoing concern right now that a magnitude 8 earthquale could hit Japan, possibly closer to Tokyo. This expectation is not based upon unreliable "earthquake prediction" methods. It is actually based on considerable experience with aftershocks of major quakes. Since the big quake that hit Sendai was a 9.0 (epicenter located offshore), seismologists feel that is quite reasonable to expect at least one magnitude 8 aftershock, and maybe ten aftershocks around magnitude 7. Also, since the aftershock pattern has been moving southeast (roughly) from the original epicenter, that would put the epicenters of the future quakes closer to Tokyo.

Therefore, don't be surprised to wake up in the next few months, or next couple of years, and hear about a magnitude 8 quake affecting Tokyo. Clearly, this is not an easy time for the Japanese people.

Pete #2


Edited by Pete (04/27/11 01:33 AM)

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