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#215895 - 01/29/11 06:14 AM Re: Fill your gas tanks, folks. [Re: Blast]
Art_in_FL Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 09/01/07
Posts: 2432
There may be some run-up in price, the oil companies and speculators have never been shy about using any excuse to either raise the price or claim the price was going up, prices can be pulled as well as pushed, but I don't see a major reason for any major increase. Yes, there will be a certain amount of concern/hedge/panic buying, this post will tend to feed that, not that ETS is a major feed and market leader, but neither Egypt nor Tunisia are major oil producers. Fact being that it is, off the top of my head, hard to figure two middle east countries less important to oil.

There may be worry about the 'Arab streets' and the novelty of Tunisia being the first Arab nation to have a popular uprising with the people booting out their long standing rulers. But Tunisia and Egypt have always had the least firm control over their populations. Only Yemen comes to mind as less stable for states not actively in a war. Granted you can rip a telephone book in half by starting at the thin edge but these two nation are markedly different from Saudi Arabia or Kuwait.

Of course the Saudis and Kuwaitis will reflexively follow the usual course, a two part, carrot and stick, approach. They simultaneously lavish their populations with benefits and blandishments while vigorously working the secret police and familial and tribal connections to rein in dissidents. They are not above outright assassinations if all else fails but they are old hands at persuasion and smoothing things out through inside pressure and lashings of cash.

I suspect that prices will like edge up in the short turn just because people aren't sure what will happen. Uncertainty always cause increases. But these things tend to stabilize in a few days/ weeks.

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#215896 - 01/29/11 09:22 AM Re: Fill your gas tanks, folks. [Re: Art_in_FL]
LED Offline
Veteran

Registered: 09/01/05
Posts: 1474
Without any way to store more than a few weeks of gas at most, I suppose we have no choice but to adjust to the new prices. Moped anyone? And due to the primary reasons behind the protests, high unemployment, poor economy, food inflation, gov. oppression and corruption, etc. I imagine we'll be seeing quite a few uprisings in the years to come. Remember, a sizeable percentage of Egyptians live on less than $2 a day. How many other countries around the world are in a similar situation? Quite a few I believe. That moped doesn't look so bad after all.

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#215897 - 01/29/11 10:28 AM Re: Fill your gas tanks, folks. [Re: LED]
hikermor Online   content
Geezer in Chief
Geezer

Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 6583
Loc: southern Cal
What! Ride a gas guzzling moped?? I'll stick with my bicycle commute. It gets me there and it gets me my aerobic exercise, all in one act. It's nice that the workplace has a shower and isn't too far away....
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#215899 - 01/29/11 03:30 PM Re: Fill your gas tanks, folks. [Re: haertig]
adam2 Offline
Addict

Registered: 05/23/08
Posts: 427
Loc: Somerset UK
Originally Posted By: haertig
If a tank of gas lasts you several months, go ahead and panic and go fill it up tonight. But if you are more typical in your gas consumption, you're only putting off the inevitable for a week or so, so not really worth it.


Still worth filling up IMHO, if the price increases then a few $ have been saved, no big deal but better than not saving a few $.
If actual shortages result, then entering a period of shortage with a full tank is assuredly better than starting with a near empty one, even if it does not last long.
I doubt that actual shortages will result, but it is allways well to remember that events might escalate.

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#215902 - 01/29/11 04:21 PM Re: Fill your gas tanks, folks. [Re: Blast]
Dagny Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 11/25/08
Posts: 1916
Loc: Washington, DC
Preparedness keeps my fuel tank full. Topped off before the snow and haven't moved the car since. I walk to work and have a couple bicycles and bike trailers so am less dependent on the car than most.

I'm more worried about our overall economy that's already weak and limping along.

Pity we can't exult in an oppressive regime's toppling, for fear an even more oppressive, anti-American regime will take its place and our oil imports will be threatened. This is quite a different reaction in western countries compared to the Berlin Wall's crashing down in 1989.

The fellow in Tunisia who ignited this wave of Middle East unrest by igniting himself is no less a symbol than the brave student who stood in the path of a tank in China's Tiananmen Square in 1989.

Best wishes to the Middle Eastern people whose ambitions do not revolve around the Caliphate. And God, Allah or whoever, help the Egyptian women who may face a future under the rule of Islamic fundamentalists.

Let's hope U.S. officials are up to the task of navigating this situation to our best near and long-term interests.


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#215903 - 01/29/11 04:26 PM Re: Fill your gas tanks, folks. [Re: Art_in_FL]
Blast Offline
INTERCEPTOR
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 07/15/02
Posts: 3561
Loc: Spring, Texas
Quote:
neither Egypt nor Tunisia are major oil producers. Fact being that it is, off the top of my head, hard to figure two middle east countries less important to oil.


Six words: Suez canal and the Sumed pipeline.
More info HERE.
-Blast


Edited by Blast (01/29/11 04:41 PM)
Edit Reason: added link
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#215918 - 01/29/11 09:04 PM Re: Fill your gas tanks, folks. [Re: Blast]
Byrd_Huntr Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 01/28/10
Posts: 1160
Loc: MN, Land O' Lakes & Rivers ...
Black coffee is selling at $21.33 a gallon at Starbucks and no one complains :-)

Gasoline supplies will only become more limited as demand increases. It is already priced artificially low (so is ethanol), and sooner or later, we will have to wean off or adjust to a much higher cost. I am burning alcohol on my cross-country travels now in my Flex-Fuel Chevy. I filled up at $2.28 a gallon twice this week. Gasoline was selling at $3.19. There is a slight difference in mileage, but on the highway, it is only about 10%-15% less, where as the cost of E-85 is 25% less in most places I go.

I'm not under any illusion that the production and use of E-85 alcohol is significantly better for the environment than petroleum, but I would rather give my 'gas money' to a Minnesota farm family. No riots down there.
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#215924 - 01/29/11 10:55 PM Re: Fill your gas tanks, folks. [Re: Blast]
Art_in_FL Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 09/01/07
Posts: 2432
The closure of the Red Sea and Suez Canal and Egyptian major Egyptian pipelines, events none of the parties have threatened or mentioned, wouldn't change much how three main players, US, China, Japan get their oil. All three have open routes by way of the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea and East. This avoids Egypt entirely.

It also has to be noted that this leave western Europe in a bit of a bind but here again they get a good part of their oil from Russia and pipelines well north of the area concerned. There are also several pipelines that skirt the area entirely but the specifics or capacity, design, and international relations make estimating how useful they may be beyond my kin.

http://www.theodora.com/pipelines/middle_east_oil_gas_products_pipelines_map.html

Click on the maps for larger versions.

There will be, as recent vituperation makes clear, some fraying and fretting around the edges, worse case they reroute around the horn, but it isn't the cataclysmic event the usual hair-on-fire sources, the same ones who have been so very wrong so often, are claiming.

If it makes you feel better go ahead and fill your tanks now. I think the savings are going to wash out in the mid-term no matter what you do, this would be different if you could say ... invest in a tanker load of oil, but unless you have facilities to lay in a huge supply, and the means to store it and get it into the market smoothly, your savings are going to be minimal.

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#215926 - 01/29/11 11:29 PM Re: Fill your gas tanks, folks. [Re: Blast]
Russ Online   content
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 06/02/06
Posts: 4915
Loc: SOCAL
90 some miles long and 1/4 mile wide. The question is will the Egyptian military side with the regime or the populace. Tunisia's military sided with the people and it looks like Egypt's military is following suit.

However, the Army allowing protests to continue is one thing, maintaining security on the Suez Canal may see a different reaction from the military. Time will tell, but my bet is on the canal staying open.

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#215928 - 01/29/11 11:40 PM Re: Fill your gas tanks, folks. [Re: Blast]
Blast Offline
INTERCEPTOR
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 07/15/02
Posts: 3561
Loc: Spring, Texas
Cool! As a employee of Big Oil it's very reassuring to see the idea of even higher gas prices doesn't concern people. grin

-Blast, looking forward to next year's Christmas bonus!! wink
_________________________
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Wild Edibles Blog
I miss OBG.

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