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#205506 - 08/03/10 06:19 AM Re: Seattle GHB [Re: Lono]
wolfepack Offline
Journeyman

Registered: 01/25/07
Posts: 52
Loc: Lynnwood, WA, USA
Originally Posted By: Lono
Hi Wolfepack - I live in Bellevue (Enatai) near the intersection of I90 and I405, and when getting a certificate in emergency management we studied the anticipated Seattle response after an earthquake - there's lots of stuff you can access to tell you about the terrain around you and what you can expect after a shake. Instead of your GHB, I recommend you focus first on your immediate environment - work and home.

You say you work in downtown Seattle, but that actually encompasses alot of varied terrain with a variety of survivability expectations - in the worst parts of downtown, liquefaction will take place, roads will collapse, gas and power lines will rupture, and your ability to exit your place of work could be hampered. Some structures can be expected to fully or partially collapse around you. Other parts of downtown could be more geologically stable, but with lots of falling windows and building parts to deal with. I don't know where you are located specifically. So, long story short, hang onto your hardhat, rather than leaving it at work - you may need it somewhere else.

Personally, if you work in an EQ-unsafe location, such as below 2nd Avenue in the Pioneer Square area, sing your death song, and praise Allah if you actually survive. Then run away, or get to work helping others as best you can. Instead of starting for home right away, ask yourself if you can bug in at work or in another nearby location, and prepare and supply yourself for that eventuality. Lynnwood is indeed a long way from downtown Seattle, in EQ terms. I work in Redmond, 7 miles over geologically stable ground from home, and in my car is a first aid bag with bulk medical supplies - tape, gloves, kerlix, nothing smaller than a 4x4 - to immediately assist 100 people. That will probably be 1/100th of the people who need it in my immediate area. Which is why I'm working on my employer to cache sufficient supplies to aid the people they employ, many of whom could be major or minor casualties after an EQ strikes. Before you prepare to walk home to Lynnwood, have you asked yourself, are there enough people I know, that I care about, that I will have a major issue walking away from them, in order to get home right away?


Need to start working on my singing voice I guess. I do work in the death zone. Down on Western Ave in an old brick building and right beside the Alaskan Way Viaduct. Actually the building has been reinforced and we are told (if you can believe anything) that while the building will probably lose almost all its outer walls, the individual floors will probably not collapse. Of course the entirely dependent on to many factors, but I am not ready to simply start singing. If I have a chance to survive, I want to make the best of it.

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On sheltering - rain or shine, don't depend on the city or anyone opening official shelters, unless there is enough cold or rain such that people will be dying that first night. If so, there will be shelters in the most stable structures - Seattle Center, community centers throughout the city, some of the newer construction that can survive a serious shake. People will also be camped out in their yards, or camped together with neighbors in neighborhood parks. I wouldn't hesitate to fall in with some of these folks, as they will have family with them, and there is some personal safety in numbers. Some will also be injured, and could use your assistance if you can give any.


I am not planning on any help from the authorities. For any number of reasons I can see myself getting sent to some shelter, but that is not my first choice. I'd much rather get home where all my survival preparations are concentrated. Getting home is not absolute number one priority though. First is to try and provide some help to those around me. With that in mind, I am stocking a larger medical kit, gloves, flashlights, and some water that others can use and I plan on leaving behind. However, I am probably not altruistic enough to spend all day trying to help. It will of course depend on the situation, but I see trying to help out for maybe a couple of hours, then leaving things in others hands and trying to get home.

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About the Seattle bridge situation - the good news is that in all except the very worst shakes, the smaller bridges will survive, although they may not be opened right away if at all. The predominant design of the smaller neighborhood bridges (Ballard, Fremont, University, Montlake Cut) is a basic bascule, and unless they are open to water traffic right when the EQ happens (unlikely), the spans will survive, but can also be shaken out of alignment, stopping the counterweight from moving until inspected or repaired. Meantime though, the bridge should be in the down position, and aligned more or less with the roadway, meaning open to foot traffic, possibly to emergency vehicle traffic, and after inspection to general vehicle traffic, if there is actually someplace for vehicles to go - with houses collapsed into roadways, the immediate issue is getting responders out of their fire houses (many of which have not yet been retrofitted) and begin to service the community. But SDOT will be working to clear roadways. Expect authorities to at least open a "life line" route between North and Central Seattle (e.g. UW Medical Center to Harborview ER) for emergency traffic only, but don't depend on Metro or Sound Transit to run their buses on it, not right away. The larger bridges are fixed spans, such as the one that carries I5 traffic, or Highway 99 (Aurora Bridge) - those may not fare so well, depending on the magnitude of the shake. I don't recommend swimming any of these waterways - you can probably cross somewhere, or some boat owner *might* offer you a ride across (but don't count on it). Anyway, some of the local bridge plan is recounted at http://www.seattle.gov/transportation/bridgeinfo.htm.


That is good news about the bridges. I had actually tried to find out some information on them, but kept running into dead ends. My first choice for bridge is the University as it is the closest going in the direction I want to go. The second is the Montlake for the same reasons. If those are out, then I'll look at the other's. That is one reason I included a monocular in my pack, so I could hopefully get some idea of the state of bridge without having to walk all the way to one.

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If you're headed for Lynnwood, I propose walking up Westlake Avenue from downtown Seattle, crossing the cut at the Fremont Bridge, and heading north on 3rd Ave NW, all the way North to Lynnwood. Its a long hike, but you avoid most of the hills on this route.


As mentioned above, my (completely armchair) plan is to take the University bridge and then head for the shore of Lake Washington. Then follow it all the way to the north end and then head on up to the east side of Lynnwood where I live. That provides with a water source, an easy landmark to follow and hopefully keeps me out of the middle of potentially chaotic residential areas. I haven't yet actually walked or driven any of it to see what it really looks like.

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Last, a bit of positive news - there's always an epicenter, and if you can survive, you can walk out of the EQ impact zone. Once you get far enough from the epicenter, damage is much reduced, people are mostly uninjured, transportation can persist, and you might even be able to catch your usual bus on its route to take you all the way home. That is, if the bus drivers haven't abandoned their buses to head home to check on their loved ones. Frankly I'm not familiar with Metro or Sound Transit's emergency plans.


If I can catch a bus, great. This is one reason I have my bus pass on a list of things it insure I take with me. I am just not planning on the buses being available. If other transportation methods make their appearance, I am not adverse to them and will take advantage where possible. 20 miles of walking is not something I am looking forward to.

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#205507 - 08/03/10 06:21 AM Re: Seattle GHB [Re: Lono]
wolfepack Offline
Journeyman

Registered: 01/25/07
Posts: 52
Loc: Lynnwood, WA, USA
Originally Posted By: Lono
Oh yeah, one more place to cross the Ship Canal - Ballard Locks. The actual structure at the Locks is very stable (thank you Army Corp of Engineers), and should survive even if an EQ destroys or every other structure is compromised. This is also the westernmost crossing point, and a little out of your way, so I would at least check the Fremont and Ballard Bridges before walking over to the south end of the Locks. And expect to wait in line, there's only room for 1-2 to walk across the locks side by side. The Fremont Bridge was retrofitted and updated in recent years, and as a 90+ year old bridge nothing is certain, but you can be fairly confident of using it as at least a foot bridge.


The Ballard locks as way across the Ship canal is an excellent suggestion. It is way out of the way from where I would like to be, but trying to swim is a very, very last resort and would be quite willing to add another 10 miles to my hike to avoid it.

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#205508 - 08/03/10 06:34 AM Re: Seattle GHB [Re: Susan]
wolfepack Offline
Journeyman

Registered: 01/25/07
Posts: 52
Loc: Lynnwood, WA, USA
Originally Posted By: Susan
Wolfepack, that's a good list. I would only change two things.

Extra socks. Your feet are your lifeline in that situation.


There are three pairs of socks in my GHB. One to wear immediately and two spare pairs. Are you recommending more? If so, how many would you add?

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All that info on your USB, couldn't that be a nice gift if someone robbed you? SS and account numbers...


All the data on the USB drive is encrypted. The encryption itself would probably stop most average thieves, but is not intended to stop somebody willing to spend an inordinate amount of time to crack it.

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One thing that comes to mind is that some of the people you work with might be traveling in the same direction, a possible asset. Does anyone have a boat moored nearby?


I'm not aware of anyone with a nearby boat. I have thought about traveling with fellow co-workers. There are at least two that normally take the same bus I do and hence live in the same general area. However there are a lot of pro's and con's associated with that. I had actually intended to bring that whole idea up in a separate thread to see what forum members thought. Didn't want to get this thread to far away from the original GHB question.

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Does your company have any plans in place for a disaster like that? Maybe you could start something. It might be nice to get people accustomed to the idea that they might be taking in coworkers for a few days -- maybe you.

Lono is right, it could be hard to walk away from the people you work with. And if the bridge is down, you might be forced to hang around.

I have a similar, but worse, problem. I drive to Seattle almost daily, but live 85 bird miles south. At least two rivers to cross, if I made it out of Seattle. On foot, almost certainly. Blech!

Sue


I'm not aware of my company having any specific plans for emergencies (beyond the usual evac drills). It would be worthwhile asking.

Sorry to hear you live so far out. Even without an emergency that sounds like a painful commute. I'm glad the bus is an option for me, even though it reduces my emergency options.

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#205510 - 08/03/10 06:42 AM Re: Seattle GHB [Re: Kona1]
wolfepack Offline
Journeyman

Registered: 01/25/07
Posts: 52
Loc: Lynnwood, WA, USA
Originally Posted By: Kona1
Nice list Wolfepack, I see you have a walking stick listed. I injured my foot about 25 years ago and it has a tendency to go out on me after 5-8 miles so I carry a folding cane which is very helpful, I also carry a lightweight, folding 3 legged stool so I can rest when I have to without worrying about the condition of my surroundings.


Kona1


The walking stick was suggested by a friend of mine. I have never used one for hiking, but thought I would give one a try. A practice run for a couple of miles with my pack and a walking stick showed a couple of things. First, the original walking stick I tried didn't work very well. It was a Stansport folding stick. That model folded up really small and made it easy to fit into my GHB box at work. However I found it was not nearly sturdy enough and tended to come apart at the joints if I swung it hard.

What I did like though, was the walking stick provided me with a measure of self defense (when a dog leaped out at me), provided a way to see how deep some water was before actually stepping in it, and provided a way to whack the forever cursed blackberry vines out of my way as I walked. This last the folding walking stick was particular poor at.

I am now evaluating other walking sticks to see what might work best. Since I will be walking through an almost entirely urban environment, I can't count on simply picking up a dead branch to use.

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#205511 - 08/03/10 06:55 AM Re: Seattle GHB [Re: wolfepack]
wildman800 Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/09/06
Posts: 2846
Loc: La-USA
Greetings Wolfpack,

First off, ETS'ers don't throw rotten tomatoes, that kind of behavior can be found at other forums, but neither the Moderators or the community here will tolerate that kind of behavior, so relax and enjoy. The membership here are some truly great people!

I like your list which reflects a good grasp of reality. As questions began, in my mind, I'd find the answer as I continued to read down the list.

Being about 50 LBS lighter than you but also not in great shape, AND with minimal EQ experience, I would plan on taking up to 72 hours to walk home. It seems to me that if the busses aren't running, a lot of detours will be necessitated.

Being an "icebreaker sailor", I would not attempt any kind of swim crossing. I would look now at any marina's in the area and explore the possibility of hiring someone to take you across. Meet the Marina Owners and explain your concerns and ask them what they think the possibilities are.

I take it that you plan to use the wet ones, as toilet paper??? If not, then you might want to add a roll of "Campers TP". It is a small roll in a clear plastic case. That might be a good idea to add to your "leave at the office" list also.

Water: If you have bottled water at work, I recommend "planning" to add 3-5 bottles to your GHB before leaving the office, to supplement your existing supply.

Instead of carrying the Dog's equipment in your GHB fulltime, perhaps make a Dog BoB which would stay at home with the dog. You could add it to your GHB, if you arrived home and found that ya'll would have to Bug Out because of local conditions.

I like your selection of maps. Do you have an iphone or Droid. They have GPS and other applications that I find will be useful IF the cell towers are working. I imagine that the familiar sights and landmarks could appear radically different or have disappeared after a serious EQ.

Good Luck, in my case, I work hundreds of miles from home, and space constraints have forced me to start leaving my GHB at home and I'm making do with an E&E kit to help me get home, if needed.
_________________________
QMC, USCG (Ret)
The best luck is what you make yourself!

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#205516 - 08/03/10 10:46 AM Re: Seattle GHB [Re: wildman800]
Lono Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 10/19/06
Posts: 1013
Loc: Pacific NW, USA
Wolfepack, please don't take this as a rotten tomato, but given where you are working I want to emphasize one thing that should be a bigger part of your preparations: you will likely be dead or injured, and less likely to emerge from a typical Seattle quake unharmed and be able to walk home. Sure, if another Nisqually quake strikes 40 miles from us, everything will shake, but also the transportation system will remain intact, so the long walk home should remain academic. And truth be told, many Seattle Earthquakes (TM) resemble the Nisqually - disruptive more than destructive. When we have the serious earthquake we're capable of though, all hell breaks loose, and the rules of architecture are suddenly writ large on the landscape, in new and graphic detail. A building that is estimated to 'lose its outer walls but have its floors remain standing'? On Western Avenue, adjacent to the Alaskan Way Viaduct? Really?? I would be skeptical of that, and fwiw would investigate your building architecture more closely. You may be in an unreinforced masonry building, or it may have received a retrofit, which is good, but recent studies have called into question the adequacy of retrofitted URM structures. After all, your first step is to survive the quake, and get out the door, then down the street, past every other building in your vicinity. That's suddenly a bigger problem than you imagined if you are crushed beneath flood slabs. Your GHB with you. Whoever finds it will likely toss the dross and focus on whatever water, food and first aid survives.

In recent years there has been alot of study of grown motion, ground fault and shaking of different building types - the volume of work is large, and emergency management folks are sometimes working to translate this into reasonable approximations for buildings (by type) in their jurisdictions. A place to start (including bibliography) is at http://www.consrv.ca.gov/cgs/smip/docs/seminar/SMIP02/Documents/Paper6_King.pdf. Somewhat more accessible stuff is at http://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/pp1551/ - these are papers from the Loma Prieta, which is only now being extensively documented, but the physics of ground motion are generally constant across environments so there is alot to learn from strong California quakes that resemble Seattle EQs that folks haven't actually experienced in the PNW since white settlement began. Someone though needs to translate this research into reasonable block by block estimates for Seattle, so that people can begin to deal with the reality of where we have chosen to work and live. Its not as difficult as you would imagine, but still a very big task. My sense of the overall impact though is that when the Seattle Fault shakes loose, we will see far more destruction than even the current estimates (2005) imagined. Some very accessible documentation on Seattle Fault scenarios exists at http://seattlescenario.eeri.org/presentations/Ch%205%20Buildings%20-%20Pierepiekarz.pdf, and other docs to review at http://seattlescenario.eeri.org/documents.php.

Liquefaction is a special concern in the SoDo area, but also along the waterfront and Western Avenue, where substantial fill was added in the late 19th Century. Its tough to figure how specific architecture may fare in this very mixed fill environment of downtown - you may be able to spot your exact work location at http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2005/1252/of2005-1252.pdf (warning, this is a 46MB .pdf download, very informative but very large).

Quibbling over Datrex or choice of TP on long walks home becomes an interesting intellectual exercise when you work in an old masonry building down on Western Avenue. Your neighborhood will resemble a war zone more than the peaceful waterfront place it is today. Again, if you survive intact the collapsing structures, liquefaction, fires, and a potential tsunami or seiche along the waterfront from the shaking, getting home to Lynnwood will be the least of your worries. If I were you, I would prepare more for personal injury and injuries of those working down the hallway from you, and the distinct possibility that you won't be moving more than a half mile from your work location until someone comes along to evacuate you. You may think and prepare as if you will walk away from your scenario unscratched, but what if you don't? Your architecture tends to dictate this more than your willing it to happen. Bandaids are cold comfort for broken bones and crush injuries. Think kerlix, and splinting material, and knowing how to use them.

Also one more thing on shelters - no one is going to 'send you to a shelter'. You will be fortunate if there is a shelter that you can enter Wolfepack. If its cold and rainy, as it often is in Seattle, you would be fortunate to get in the door, there will be so many who want in. And the folks who run it will treat you with the respect and dignity you offer and that you deserve, although those like adequate post-EQ supplies will be in short supply. I don't pretend to know what you imagine goes on inside a shelter, but its food, water and warmth, which can be in very short supply otherwise. If you choose your tarp and your ground insulation exposed outdoors thats fine, you'll have plenty of company, in those first 48-72 hours they'll be using cardboard and blankets and mattresses and whatever else they can pull from the rubble to make do. Stay safe. Be realistic.

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#205517 - 08/03/10 12:56 PM Re: Seattle GHB [Re: wolfepack]
LesSnyder Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 07/11/10
Posts: 1680
Loc: New Port Richey, Fla
as Lono said add some kerlix, betadine,jell burn pad, SF tourniquet,syringe for eye irrigation... last earthquake I was in was in the Philippines, but a lot of junk fell from the ceiling. I tend to overlook thermal and chemical burns when thinking first aid and they are very debilitating to travel. A small folding hack saw is in my GHB in case I need to open a chained gate. Since you have decided to forego firearms, I think I would store something like a small tomahawk head (hawking stick)or weighted mass that could turn you walking staff into a defensive tool. Might add a foil pouch or tin of tuna, eat the meat and use the remaining oil to heat some water, save the esbit tabs. You might think about pre dressing your feet with some duct (duck) tape... works well for our cross country team. regards Les

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#205527 - 08/03/10 04:02 PM Re: Seattle GHB [Re: wildman800]
wolfepack Offline
Journeyman

Registered: 01/25/07
Posts: 52
Loc: Lynnwood, WA, USA
Originally Posted By: wildman800
Greetings Wolfpack,

First off, ETS'ers don't throw rotten tomatoes, that kind of behavior can be found at other forums, but neither the Moderators or the community here will tolerate that kind of behavior, so relax and enjoy. The membership here are some truly great people!

I like your list which reflects a good grasp of reality. As questions began, in my mind, I'd find the answer as I continued to read down the list.

Being about 50 LBS lighter than you but also not in great shape, AND with minimal EQ experience, I would plan on taking up to 72 hours to walk home. It seems to me that if the busses aren't running, a lot of detours will be necessitated.


The more I have thought about what might occur during a large-scale emergency, the more problems I keep thinking of. I think your are probably right that I should be thinking in terms of 72hrs to get home rather than my original optimistic 24-36hrs. Unfortunately, that likely means more weight for the pack.

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Being an "icebreaker sailor", I would not attempt any kind of swim crossing. I would look now at any marina's in the area and explore the possibility of hiring someone to take you across. Meet the Marina Owners and explain your concerns and ask them what they think the possibilities are.


This is why I post on forums. Not only do you get great feedback, but it makes you think more about your own plans. The more I think about my idea of swimming the Ship canal, the dumber it seems. Cold water, long distance, debris, keeping my stuff dry, etc. It was always intended only as a last resort, but I should probably just rule it out entirely. I am certainly open to other transportation and thought I would walk my first leg along Lake Union to see if I could find anyone I could hire to just give me a ride across the canal, or better yet, all the way to the north end of Lake Washington.

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I take it that you plan to use the wet ones, as toilet paper??? If not, then you might want to add a roll of "Campers TP". It is a small roll in a clear plastic case. That might be a good idea to add to your "leave at the office" list also.


Actually, there is travel toilet paper in my GHB already. The "Wet Ones" were intended as a ready made cleaning cloth I could use to clean the worst off of wounds, clean my hands if they end up with blood, filth, mud, etc., and other general purpose cleaning. Nothing special about "Wet Ones", any prepackaged, travel-size, cloth/cleaning solution would do. Your suggestion about leaving some toilet paper at the office when I leave is an excellent one. Also a large box of cleaning wipes would also be good.

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Water: If you have bottled water at work, I recommend "planning" to add 3-5 bottles to your GHB before leaving the office, to supplement your existing supply.


We don't have bottled water free for the taking at my office, but there is some in the vending machine I could "acquire". I was planning on having a couple of extra bottles of water in my GHB box to leave behind along with the medical supplies, gloves, flashlights, etc. I'm very concerned about weight. Adding 3-5 additional 1 litre bottles would add 5-10 additional pounds to my pack. Do you think it is worth the extra weight? My planned route home was along a lake where I could pretty easily filter/purify water as I went.

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Instead of carrying the Dog's equipment in your GHB fulltime, perhaps make a Dog BoB which would stay at home with the dog. You could add it to your GHB, if you arrived home and found that ya'll would have to Bug Out because of local conditions.


My GHB is really intended only for getting home from work. It is not intended as a BOB. I have a much better equipped BOB at home which does have dog stuff as well. The dog equipment in my GHB (collapsible bowl, leash, etc.) is probably mostly an emotional thing. If I happened to have my dog at work, I would have a basic prep. If I ran across some "eligible" dog on the way, I could take it with me. (I would do my best to find the dogs original owner once I was home) Though possibly hard to tell from my original post, I do really like dogs, and the idea of having a dog with me on my trek home would bring me a lot of comfort as well as potential security. Also the bowl is potentially useful for dipping water if I don't want to expose my cup/water bottle for some reason. The leash is a short, potentially VERY strong rope that could be used where it might take a lot of paracord to accomplish the same thing. These last are mostly rationalizations, but like I said, the dog stuff is less logical and more emotional. I should probably apply a little more logic to it.


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I like your selection of maps. Do you have an iphone or Droid. They have GPS and other applications that I find will be useful IF the cell towers are working. I imagine that the familiar sights and landmarks could appear radically different or have disappeared after a serious EQ.


I had not thought of the GPS aspect of my cell phone. Currently I don't have that service turned on, but that could be really useful. Especially if it is a true GPS and not based on cell towers. Yet another great idea to investigate.

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Good Luck, in my case, I work hundreds of miles from home, and space constraints have forced me to start leaving my GHB at home and I'm making do with an E&E kit to help me get home, if needed.


Sorry to hear your work takes you so far from home. Lets hope that neither of us has to make use of the preps we are putting together.

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#205528 - 08/03/10 04:10 PM Re: Seattle GHB [Re: wolfepack]
acropolis5 Offline
Enthusiast

Registered: 06/18/06
Posts: 358
Wolfepack, you've got a pretty good and comprehensive plan. Here's my 2 cents: Some real-life first-aid training or at least read a good mannual and watch the Tactical Medical Solutions vids on U-Tube. More bandaging material, especially 2 "Izzy" battle dressings. A small survival/first-aid mannual. A good all-purpose sheath knife. My favorite for a GHB is the Gerber LMF II. A Katadyn water purifier bottle and a Ti cup fitted on. Even better would be a General Ecology XL pump water purifier. A couple of water filled, wide mouth Nagalene bottles. Not just pepper spray, but a medium sized can of bear repellant pepper spray in a nylon belt holster. As to a walking stick, I suggest an oak Canemasters crook neck cane, fitted with a convertible rubber/metal point tip (available from Leigh Valley or Treeline) along with a basic video on its use. Canemasters will install the tip, for a fee, if you send it to them with your order. Finally, as to cash, is it $200 or more? I'm not sure I understood your post. $1000, broken up would be best. P.S. Forget swimming! In case you ignore this advice, add 2 airline type inflatable vests. One for you and one for your pack. Best of luck.


Edited by acropolis5 (08/03/10 04:10 PM)

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#205529 - 08/03/10 04:22 PM Re: Seattle GHB [Re: wolfepack]
xbanker Offline
Addict

Registered: 04/21/05
Posts: 484
Loc: Anthem, AZ USA
Originally Posted By: wolfepack
there is some [water] in the vending machine I could "acquire".

Murphy's Law abounds. Don't ignore possibility that in your #1 scenario (earthquake), power loss could shut down vending machines. If your workplace has back-up generator(s), will they power essential functions only (to exclusion of vending machines)?
_________________________
"Things that have never happened before happen all the time." — Scott Sagan, The Limits of Safety

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