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#203516 - 06/16/10 01:00 AM Re: Evacuation Net Rumors are Increasing [Re: ireckon]
wildman800 Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/09/06
Posts: 2828
Loc: La-USA
As you've already discovered, it's hard to get full data from the Russians or any other govt, including our own.

I believe that is because such information could very dangerous in the wrong hands. I can think of one application having to do with deep underground facilities.
_________________________
QMC, USCG (Ret)
The best luck is what you make yourself!

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#203522 - 06/16/10 10:55 AM Re: Evacuation Net Rumors are Increasing [Re: wildman800]
MostlyHarmless Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 06/03/09
Posts: 982
Loc: Norway
Rumors, media frenzy and a large pack of whoever trying to push their agenda... Hard facts and truth really do have a though time.

One particular statement that made it into Norwegian headlines was that "Why wasn't Norway or the Netherlands involved"? I'd like to toss in some hard facts about that particular statement. I don't know much about the Dutch involvement, but I would guess their reply would be pretty similar to the Norwegian.

1) Norwegian authorities were asked about capabilities and replied with an exhaustive list at the 12th of May. I don't know the exact contents of that list, but the national capabilities include a set of crisis management plans unique to our region, deals with private companies (that are to drop whatever they're doing and help with the spill) and finally some hardware (oil lenses) stored at several locations. That hardware is really the only government-owned asset transferable to the Gulf. Apparently, the U.S. coast guard does not think that flying a limited quantity of oil lenses across the Atlantic would make much of a difference to anything.


2) The most important asset in a situation like this is professional crews and vessels. They are emplyed, owned and run by private companies, not the government. Those companies, including a few Norwegian ones and probably several Dutch companies, are already operating at full steam in the Gulf. Arrangements are made directly with the companies and not with the Dutch or Norwegian authorities.


Edited by MostlyHarmless (06/16/10 10:56 AM)

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#203525 - 06/16/10 01:16 PM Re: Evacuation Net Rumors are Increasing [Re: MostlyHarmless]
TheSock Offline
Addict

Registered: 11/13/07
Posts: 471
Loc: London England
Maybe I'm reading you wrong wildman; but I get the feeling you really think the government is looking for an excuse to impose martial law, or round up people into prison camps.
The Sock
_________________________
The world is in haste and nears its end Wulfstan II Archbishop of York 1014.

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#203528 - 06/16/10 03:07 PM Re: Evacuation Net Rumors are Increasing [Re: TheSock]
wildman800 Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/09/06
Posts: 2828
Loc: La-USA
The Sock, I'm not looking for that at all. It would be TEOTWAWKI.

I look for trends, after following money trails. I've watched several money trails go in several unusual places, like the Doomsday Seed Vault. I've seen many countries invest big bucks in establishing several such seed vaults. Seeing how tight govt budgets are, what future needs do they foresee to make such investments? The same is true here concerning the large amt of underground construction that's been getting financed over the last 10-20 years.

It's obvious to me that plans are being or are completed for an evac. I think they will stay in the file unless a hurricane would show up that the surge could push contamination inland.

Speaking for myself, I am on the western edge of the envelope and about 50 miles north of GoM.
_________________________
QMC, USCG (Ret)
The best luck is what you make yourself!

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#203536 - 06/16/10 06:52 PM Re: Evacuation Net Rumors are Increasing [Re: Blast]
duckear Offline
Addict

Registered: 03/01/04
Posts: 477
Originally Posted By: Blast
The question is will people be able to sit still and not make matters worse while waiting for these side wells to do their job.

-Blast



Patience is, unfortunately, not a politically viable virtue.

Someone must be seen 'doing' something. frown


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#203555 - 06/17/10 11:10 AM Re: Evacuation Net Rumors are Increasing [Re: duckear]
ratbert42 Offline
Member

Registered: 05/31/06
Posts: 178
Loc: Florida
The most constructive criticism I've read was that they should be drilling more than two side wells. The claim was that historically each well has about a 60% chance of working, so counting on only two is too risky. Maybe they're a lot better at doing this now than the 60% figure, but given the multiple-month lead time, it does seem like starting up a couple more drilling operations would be a good step.

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#203559 - 06/17/10 02:41 PM Re: Evacuation Net Rumors are Increasing [Re: ratbert42]
wildman800 Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/09/06
Posts: 2828
Loc: La-USA
Normally, only one relief well is drilled. BP started two. BUT, one of the relief wells has been stopped @ 8,000 + ft. They want to shift the BOP to the other well?? Or they want to reinspect that BOP?? I've heard both stories.

I see where this could actually be another reason and intent but I don't have a clue as to that probability. No, there's insufficient info available to explore that possibility to be discussed now.

The remaining relief well is now down to 13,000 + ft and still drilling.
_________________________
QMC, USCG (Ret)
The best luck is what you make yourself!

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#203581 - 06/18/10 01:58 AM Re: Evacuation Net Rumors are Increasing [Re: wildman800]
Eric Offline
Enthusiast

Registered: 09/09/06
Posts: 323
Loc: Iowa
The government (or various agencies thereof) is always drawing up plans. Some plans are updated whenever even mildly appropriate (say evacuation plans) even if the probability of execution is low. Some of this is good preparedness and practice but in reality a major driver is probably a concern that not having a plan (or having an outdated plan) would be ... uhm ... unfortunate(?) for those in various leadership positions if the low order probability event with nasty consequences should somehow turn up.

Somewhere deep in the vaults I am sure we have plans for invading our good neighbors to the North and South (Mexico and Canada) and they get pulled out dusted off and updated occasionally. Don't ever expect to need them, but any good government organization needs a Plan to fall back on, no matter what happens.

Sarcastic tone aside, plans are good and the effort in developing plans for unlikely events will help you cope when something happens. Experience says you won't get everything right but at least with a plan you have something solid to start from.

- Eric
_________________________
You are never beaten until you admit it. - - General George S. Patton


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#203749 - 06/21/10 03:25 PM Re: Evacuation Net Rumors are Increasing [Re: wildman800]
wildman800 Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/09/06
Posts: 2828
Loc: La-USA
A friend in Central Louisiana and Mississipii who owns large amounts of land, is now receiving phone calls from Gulf Coast residents who want to buy some of his land. It sounds like more and more people are thinking that the oil leak is "The End Of Their World As They Knew It".
_________________________
QMC, USCG (Ret)
The best luck is what you make yourself!

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#203752 - 06/21/10 03:48 PM Re: Evacuation Net Rumors are Increasing [Re: wildman800]
Am_Fear_Liath_Mor Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 08/03/07
Posts: 3078

Some opinion is suggesting that the only solution to the current disaster is the nuclear option. Even the relief wells may fail as noted in the detailed analysis in the link below.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6593/648967

http://video.godlikeproductions.com/video/Simmons_Says_Nuclear_Device_Only_Option_to_Stop_Oil_Flow

The reserves for the oil field have been estimated at 2-3 billion barrels. i.e. 8-12,000 Exon Valdez's worth.

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