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#195080 - 02/04/10 12:18 PM Historic snowfall - N/E I-95 Corridor
nouseforaname Offline
Journeyman

Registered: 02/28/04
Posts: 76

hey folks - I havent posted in a while, but I've been lurking...suprised no one has called this one out, yet.

"6:00 AM THURSDAY 2.4.2010 A powerful low pressure system developing across the southwest United States is combining with a significant influx of tropical Pacific moisture enhanced by much above normal sea surface temperatures courtesy of a strong El Nino. This low pressure will tap additional moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean, while moving slowly off the Carolina coast by Sunday morning. Latest computer model indications of 2.0 - 3.0 inches of liquid suggest this will be an historic and extremely heavy wet snowfall across the entire Northeast I-95 corridor from Virginia to southern New England. We urge citizens to heed public safety advisories from local and state authorities as well as the National Weather Service while preparing for this crippling event. "




"If computer model trends continue as they have in the past 24 hours, this storm has potential to eclipse December 19, 2009 ; February 15-18, 2003 ; January 6-8, 1996 ; March 11, 1993 ; February 11, 1983 ; December 1966, and could rival March 18-22, 1958. We are are not trying to be sophomoric for the sake of ratings. In this highly charged El-Nino pattern, with the 3-month Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) equal to January 2003, this weekend's storm may represent what February 2010 could deliver, and bear similarities to January 1994 along the eastern seaboard."

http://www.footsforecast.org/


could prove to be very, very bad. Batten down the hatches, folks.


Edited by rumbaugh (02/04/10 12:20 PM)
_________________________
"It is a far, far better thing that I do, than I have ever done; it is a far, far better rest that I go to than I have ever known" - A Tale of Two Cities - Charles Dickens

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#195082 - 02/04/10 12:48 PM Re: Historic snowfall - N/E I-95 Corridor [Re: nouseforaname]
Dagny Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 11/25/08
Posts: 1916
Loc: Washington, DC
I was busy doing the milk-eggs-tp emergency store run.

Seriously, I ran out of eggs and milk during this past Saturday's snow. So I went to the grocery at lunch yesterday (Wednesday). They were remarkably busy. The cashier said The Snow People were already on the march so they were calling extra cashiers to come in.

Peops were already planning their Super Bowl grocery runs for this weekend. With snow on top of the Super Bowl, imagine what the supermarkets are going to be like in the next 24 hours.

This is such a great winter for those of us in the mid-Atlantic who have felt snow-deprived the past several years. On that note, here are a couple pics from this past Saturday's snow:


Attachments
Picture 213.jpg

Picture 197.jpg



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#195094 - 02/04/10 05:52 PM Re: Historic snowfall - N/E I-95 Corridor [Re: Dagny]
7point82 Offline
Addict

Registered: 11/24/05
Posts: 478
Loc: Oklahoma
Great pics Dagny! Looks like fun.

You all stay safe. smile
_________________________
"There is not a man of us who does not at times need a helping hand to be stretched out to him, and then shame upon him who will not stretch out the helping hand to his brother." -Theodore Roosevelt

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#195098 - 02/04/10 06:30 PM Re: Historic snowfall - N/E I-95 Corridor [Re: 7point82]
TeacherRO Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 03/11/05
Posts: 2396
I find that weathermen tend to over-predict the snowfall.

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#195103 - 02/04/10 07:29 PM Re: Historic snowfall - N/E I-95 Corridor [Re: TeacherRO]
Dagny Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 11/25/08
Posts: 1916
Loc: Washington, DC
The accuracy of forecasts in the DC area have improved significantly in the past twenty years. They seem to get our big storms right these days. We had a few days warning that the Blizzard of '93 (aka "Storm of the Century" and the "Snowicane") was going to hammer us, and boy did it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Storm_of_the_Century

Forecasters did well in calling our Blizzard of '96, the big snow of 2003 (our last big one until recently) and this past December's blizzard.

Sometimes the 4-6" predicted snows don't pan out but that's always in the realm of possibility. These super big storms form down south and seem to just take aim. I don't recall one of them fizzling.

In any event, I'll be able to make omelettes. And the gas tank is topped off so if I go get stuck somewhere.... Well, I won't.


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#195104 - 02/04/10 07:34 PM Re: Historic snowfall - N/E I-95 Corridor [Re: Dagny]
Jesselp Offline
What's Next?
Enthusiast

Registered: 07/19/07
Posts: 263
Loc: New York
This just came over the emergency e-mail system here:

NJZ003>006-011-NYZ072>081-050415-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0001.100205T2300Z-100206T2300Z/
BERGEN-EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION-NY (MANHATTAN)-
BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
303 PM EST THU FEB 4 2010

.WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRI EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH.WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRI EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE WATCH AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT.& CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.BEFORE TAPERING OFF
LATE IN THE DAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
FALL LATE FRI NIGHT & SAT MORNING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 4 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW TO FALL ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE.WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN
LOCATIONS CLOSEST TO NY HARBOR & THE ATLANTIC.

THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE STORM. THE AREA IS ON THE N. PORTION OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD.AS A RESULT.ANY CHANGE IN STORM TRACK LIKELY WILL
RESULT IN A LARGE CHANGE IN FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS. A TRACK FURTHER
NORTH THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.WOULD RESULT IN MORE SNOW.WHILE
A SHIFT TO FURTHER SO. COULD RESULT IN LITTLE OR NO SNOW FALLING
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
_________________________
http://spligovia.blogspot.com
A blog about adventure
in and around New York

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#195105 - 02/04/10 07:35 PM Re: Historic snowfall - N/E I-95 Corridor [Re: Dagny]
rebwa Offline
Enthusiast

Registered: 01/25/09
Posts: 295
Beautiful pictures of your Sammy girl in the snow, she's a gorgeous girl. I have two Dobes who love the snow providing they have their jackets on!

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#195112 - 02/04/10 09:07 PM Re: Historic snowfall - N/E I-95 Corridor [Re: TeacherRO]
ki4buc Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 11/10/03
Posts: 710
Loc: Augusta, GA
Originally Posted By: TeacherRO
I find that weathermen tend to over-predict the snowfall.


Probably to avoid getting sued.

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#195116 - 02/04/10 11:03 PM Re: Historic snowfall - N/E I-95 Corridor [Re: Dagny]
Susan Offline
Geezer

Registered: 01/21/04
Posts: 5163
Loc: W. WA
Dagny, it certainly is amazing how the usual bland photos of your area tend to stand out with Gidget in them! Lovely girl!

Stay warm, stay dry, check the dog food and treats supply.

Sue

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#195129 - 02/05/10 03:41 AM Re: Historic snowfall - N/E I-95 Corridor [Re: nouseforaname]
Andy Offline
Enthusiast

Registered: 09/13/07
Posts: 378
Loc: SE PA
Originally Posted By: rumbaugh

"If computer model trends continue as they have in the past 24 hours, this storm has potential to eclipse December 19, 2009 ; February 15-18, 2003 ; January 6-8, 1996 ; March 11, 1993 ; February 11, 1983 ; December 1966, and could rival March 18-22, 1958."



I have been caught in all but one of the storms listed.

1958: We lost electricity for 5 days, we melted snow and cooked in our 1850's fireplace. National Guard flew supplies to our towm by helo.

1966: Christmas eve. The snow drifted over 6' high. We spent hours digging out, by hand, to go to Christmas mass, left the car in the middle of road while in church, virtually the only people there. Next morning we had to dig out all over again because of the drifting snow so my dad could go to work. We have pictures of my father-in-law clearing the drifts on his D4 Cat bulldozer.

1983: Was in LA when the storm hit, took me two days to get home. Schools were closed for 4 days.

1993: Was living in Paris and missed this one. Oh la la la (The French actually do say this!)

2003: My wife got the 5:00am call that school was cancelled (duh). She was on sabbatical that year...

The rest were inconvenient with no real problems. The most trouble I had was digging a path for the dog to get to his favorite tree. (20" snow vs 10" of dog)

But just in case this year I got a 5000watt generator.

Interestingly, almost all these storms hit on the weekend. Since 1900 77% of the major snow storms in the mid-Atlantic have occurred on the weekend.

And, yes, I am old.

Stay safe and warm.


Edited by Andy (02/05/10 06:53 PM)
Edit Reason: added text
_________________________
In a crisis one does not rise to one's level of expectations but rather falls to one's level of training.

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