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#191059 - 12/16/09 09:24 PM Re: Fleeing millions equal a disaster to flee? [Re: Dagny]
Susan Offline
Geezer

Registered: 01/21/04
Posts: 5163
Loc: W. WA
"Reminds me I need to put her comb and shampoo in my bugout bag. May need her to charm the locals out of some biscuits and gruel."

Although her smile may get her what she wants, a few tricks might be of value. Not to mention valuable 'retrieving skills'. Her biggest problem may be that tendency to glow in the dark.

Sue

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#191060 - 12/16/09 09:29 PM Re: Fleeing millions equal a disaster to flee? [Re: NightHiker]
Dagny Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 11/25/08
Posts: 1913
Loc: Washington, DC

Dweste -- the tabletop exercise is worthwhile.

Get specific -- event, place, time of year. Pick a more precise number of refugees.

Then we can speculate on where they'd head, how they'd travel, how they may be equipped and how the public and private sectors may respond.

I think this country is capable of effectively responding to horrendous local and regional circumstances that impact millions of our countrymen.










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#191061 - 12/16/09 09:30 PM Re: Fleeing millions equal a disaster to flee? [Re: Susan]
Dagny Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 11/25/08
Posts: 1913
Loc: Washington, DC
Originally Posted By: Susan
"Reminds me I need to put her comb and shampoo in my bugout bag. May need her to charm the locals out of some biscuits and gruel."

Although her smile may get her what she wants, a few tricks might be of value. Not to mention valuable 'retrieving skills'. Her biggest problem may be that tendency to glow in the dark.

Sue


Ha. Yeah, bad camo unless there's snow.

She'd be good at retrieving cats, if they were de-clawed.


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#191062 - 12/16/09 09:32 PM Re: Fleeing millions equal a disaster to flee? [Re: dweste]
Dagny Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 11/25/08
Posts: 1913
Loc: Washington, DC
Originally Posted By: dweste
The scenario is to imagine that there is a point at which the mere presence of evacuees / refugees become themselves an emergency / disaster to which you must respond. If you do not think it could ever happen and have thought it through, scenario has served its purpose and is over.



What do you mean "must respond?"

Shoot them or run? Are we to assume they'll be kicking the door down to get to our refrigerators?







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#191063 - 12/16/09 09:41 PM Re: Fleeing millions equal a disaster to flee? [Re: Dagny]
dweste Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 02/16/08
Posts: 2463
Loc: Central California
Originally Posted By: Dagny
Get specific -- event, place, time of year. Pick a more precise number of refugees.


I am not making my point very well, or maybe I am mistaken in thinking I have a point. Let me try again.

The proposition is that eventually evacuees or refugess can become themselves a disaster or emergency in the areas to which they flee. If you find the proposition nonsensical, then we can agree to disagree. If you can see the proposition might come true, then let us discuss its ramifications on preparedness.

To be as specific as I think is necessary:

The event is whatever would send a wave of millions of refugees / evacuees into your neighborhood.

The place is your neighborhood.

The time of year does not matter for the basic question, but can be posed for each time of year for purpose of discussion. I suppose the dead of winter would pose the greatest challenge.

The precise number of refugees / evacuees is whatever number would exhaust the resources of any organized response in your neighborhood.

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#191064 - 12/16/09 10:04 PM Re: Fleeing millions equal a disaster to flee? [Re: dweste]
Dagny Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 11/25/08
Posts: 1913
Loc: Washington, DC


Well, I am in an unusual neighborhood.

I've been on Constitution Avenue during a reported 600,000 strong march. Could feel the heat of the crowd two blocks away from the first of the marchers. Takes hours for a crowd that big to move.

Millions of people in a neighborhood of single family homes.

They're going to trample the flowerbeds.


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#191125 - 12/17/09 02:13 PM Re: Fleeing millions equal a disaster to flee? [Re: Dagny]
dweste Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 02/16/08
Posts: 2463
Loc: Central California
Originally Posted By: Dagny
Could feel the heat of the crowd two blocks away from the first of the marchers.


Now imagine them cold, angry, frustrated, hungry, thirsty, in pain, scared for their loved ones, ....

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#191135 - 12/17/09 03:24 PM Re: Fleeing millions equal a disaster to flee? [Re: dweste]
Tyber Offline
Sheriff
Enthusiast

Registered: 04/27/09
Posts: 292
Loc: ST. Paul MN
I think that the biggest problem with People fleeing an ara isn't those that have the means or the resorces to eveacuate. Those of us on this list have plans in place, have solutions and thus I would say those on this forum I would be comefortable having in my house.

Fleeing people proved to be an issue during Katrina. There were un-substantuated reports that those that were offered houseing were steeling from those that shelterd them. Now I need to re-state that this was un-substantuated, but I would say that letting strangers in your house would be opening yourself up for true issues.


If things were to deteriorate to the point that people were murading through your neck of the woods, I would like to think that you would know about it and see it comeing. To be blunt, if things got to that point, you should know about it and have taken precautions.

Maybe as people slip through your neck of the woods escaping what ever disaster would increas petty crimes, but I don't see or would not predict huge crime waves. The best defense would be to park the car in the Garage, lock all the doors and windows and take necesary precautions, but I would not bug out.

Bugging out would be like running with the lemmings. Rather than solving the problem, your adding to it.

There are times that bailing before the hord arives is a wise choice, but we are going back to very apocoliptic scenarios.




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#191145 - 12/17/09 05:38 PM Re: Fleeing millions equal a disaster to flee? [Re: Tyber]
dweste Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 02/16/08
Posts: 2463
Loc: Central California
Defense against a few, doable; defense against thousands or more, unlikely. Is it such a stretch to consider that honest but desperate people in vast numbers will do what seems necessary to survive and that at some point you would be just another resource however much they might regret doing what they feel thay must do?

"Bugging out would be like running with the lemmings. Rather than solving the problem, your adding to it."

If running is the best strategy, perhaps you want to be the front lemming - going furthest and fastest, hopefully beyond the ability of those following so you and yours wind up in a more survivable situation. Preparation to flee and a good early decision process would seem worthy goals, hence this thread.


Edited by dweste (12/17/09 05:53 PM)

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#191148 - 12/17/09 06:03 PM Re: Fleeing millions equal a disaster to flee? [Re: dweste]
Tyber Offline
Sheriff
Enthusiast

Registered: 04/27/09
Posts: 292
Loc: ST. Paul MN
"If running is the best strategy, perhaps you want to be the front lemming - going furthest and fastest, hopefully beyond the ability of those following so you and yours wind up in a more survivable situation. Preparation to flee and a good early decision process would seem worthy goals, hence this thread."



I am all for being the first leming out into the open.. being the first, farthest, and fastest lemming is the smarter route.

Hell I know I always calculate the fastest and most obscure route out of where I live to ensure that I am the fastest lemming.



Edited by Tyber (12/17/09 06:03 PM)

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