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#185585 - 10/16/09 04:52 PM Re: When do you flee? [Re: NightHiker]
dweste Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 02/16/08
Posts: 2463
Loc: Central California
Originally Posted By: NightHiker
For me it's all subjective. I don't like to have specific trigger points because if you've misjudged then it may be too late by the time your trigger is tripped. It means maintaining alertness but I'm ok with that.


An interesting dance of communications. Surely there must be some way to describe risk assessment and decision-making in disaster / emergency situations, but my questions have not succeeded in eliciting that information.

It seems to me subjective decision-making and alertness, pre-suppose some learned standards and methods for deciding and some pre-determined finite list of things to which you choose to be alert. I am probing to try to see what those standards, methods, and things may be for each type of emergency /disaster.

Put another way, I believe you have learned what to pay attention to in an emergency / disaster. What are those things?

One example would be the things posted about fire by Nighthiker. These are not random, made-up-on-the-fly considerations but a specific list of factors.

Edit: surely responders are taught specific things to gauge when to flee?

Edit 2: surely some factors go into deciding evacuation orders?


Edited by dweste (10/16/09 05:12 PM)

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#185595 - 10/16/09 06:10 PM Re: When do you flee? [Re: dweste]
paramedicpete Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 04/09/02
Posts: 1920
Loc: Frederick, Maryland
Flexibility, in my opinion is critical to a successful outcome. Preplanning while important must not pigeonhole one into tunnel vision, situational awareness is an essential facet in an ongoing dynamic event. Preplans will enable one to initiate action with thoughtfulness, but must allow flexibility in reacting to changing situations and events. The best plans are ones that allow for rapid assessment, followed by action(s) that is(are) constantly being evaluated and altered to meet any changes to the situation.

Pete

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#185596 - 10/16/09 06:17 PM Re: When do you flee? [Re: dweste]
Russ Offline
Geezer

Registered: 06/02/06
Posts: 5357
Loc: SOCAL
Originally Posted By: dweste
I am about a days sail or motor east of the Golden Gate Bridge leading out of San Franciso Bay to the Pacific Ocean. If a huge storm / hurricane / tsunami / flood is predicted, it is not likely I can sail out of the narrow Delta waterways and up or down the California coastline far and fast enough to avoid such things. At this point in time, all I can do is batten down the hatches, put out extra mooring lines to the dock, and deploy extra bumpers.

My big decision is whether or not to bug out in my vehicle and abandon the boat to its fate. I am pondering what factors and data I need to make that decision, which is the genesis of this thread.
So given time to add extra mooring lines and either ride it out or evacuate, but not knowing how bad it might be, what objective criteria do you have to make a decision given that you need time to evacuate via car.

Tie the boat and definitely save your car and yourself, or,
Stay with the boat and hope to help it survive damage, but definitely lose the car and possibly fail to save the boat. . .

Add the extra mooring lines, batten down the hatches and jump in the car. $.02


Edited by Russ (10/16/09 06:26 PM)
_________________________
Better is the Enemy of Good Enough.
Okay, what’s your point??

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#185597 - 10/16/09 06:18 PM Re: When do you flee? [Re: dweste]
JohnE Offline
Addict

Registered: 06/10/08
Posts: 601
Loc: Southern Cal
In a nutshell, you'd have to know the time that the "event" will arrive or at least a good approximation, compare that with the time you'll need to do whatever you want to do, when the arrival time coincides with your preparation time, do whatever you plan on doing.

In other words, if you know it will take you an hour to bug out and your best guess is that the "event" is one hour away from happening, activate your plan.

Asking what things need to be known in every possible scenario is a huge job.

What you want to know is a full time job for many people, how can you expect to learn about fire behaviour, meteorology, fluid mechanics, engineering standards, and all of the other things that you'd need to know in order to make a decision about any given situation that might occur? It's impossible.

I know for a fact that firefighters are taught about specific things to watch for before making their decision to bail out, I also know that they routinely ignore those things as do many professionals. They take their entire body of knowledge and then make a subjective decision on the fly all the time. Which is one reason why I got caught taking cover under a fire truck during a wildfire once. Even the folks who do this stuff for a living can't know all the things that might happen.

Using a wild fire as an example, knowing that a fire is a particular distance away is only one piece of data, in order to make a well reasoned decision about when to evacuate you'd need to know the wind direction and speed, the terrain between you and the fire, the fuel load of the terrain, the number and type of any structures between you and the fire, the current and predicted weather conditions, the manpower available to get between you and the fire, the technical resources available and a few other things I'm probably forgetting. Wouldn't it be smarter to have a plan that says that if a wildfire gets within a given distance to you to evacuate? You can overanalyze yourself to death. Literally. In the time you take trying to make the BEST response, you can die. I'd rather over-react then under-react.

I might be wrong but I don't think anyone posting here would be able to give anyone specific guidelines on what to do for every possible scenario. And frankly,
I'd be very cautious in believing anyone who claims that they could do so. I've worked at a few emergency operations and controlled chaos is the best way to describe most of them. One need look no further then the recent Station Fire here in SoCal to see where otherwise intelligent, highly trained people made some fundamental errors in judgement about how and where to fight the fire. If the experts can get it wrong, how can a lay person expect to know all the stuff needed in all of the scenarios listed earlier? It really is very subjective.
_________________________
JohnE

"and all the lousy little poets
comin round
tryin' to sound like Charlie Manson"

The Future/Leonard Cohen


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#185598 - 10/16/09 06:18 PM Re: When do you flee? [Re: dweste]
DesertFox Offline
Enthusiast

Registered: 01/04/07
Posts: 339
Loc: New York, NY
Is the boat insured? Check with the insurance carrier. Many offer to pay the cost of pulling the boat out of the water and securing it if there is a hurricane on the way.

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#185604 - 10/16/09 06:54 PM Re: When do you flee? [Re: JohnE]
dweste Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 02/16/08
Posts: 2463
Loc: Central California
Originally Posted By: JohnE
In a nutshell, you'd have to know the time that the "event" will arrive or at least a good approximation, compare that with the time you'll need to do whatever you want to do, when the arrival time coincides with your preparation time, do whatever you plan on doing.

In other words, if you know it will take you an hour to bug out and your best guess is that the "event" is one hour away from happening, activate your plan.

[A great example of specific criteria for a bug-out decision.]

Asking what things need to be known in every possible scenario is a huge job. [Only asking each to contribute what they know; the benefit of an online community.]

What you want to know is a full time job for many people, how can you expect to learn about fire behaviour, meteorology, fluid mechanics, engineering standards, and all of the other things that you'd need to know in order to make a decision about any given situation that might occur? It's impossible. [Yep, perfect information and being omnicient is not possible. I will take what I can get!]

I know for a fact that firefighters are taught about specific things to watch for before making their decision to bail out, I also know that they routinely ignore those things as do many professionals. They take their entire body of knowledge and then make a subjective decision on the fly all the time. Which is one reason why I got caught taking cover under a fire truck during a wildfire once. Even the folks who do this stuff for a living can't know all the things that might happen. [A given.]

Using a wild fire as an example, knowing that a fire is a particular distance away is only one piece of data, in order to make a well reasoned decision about when to evacuate you'd need to know the wind direction and speed, the terrain between you and the fire, the fuel load of the terrain, the number and type of any structures between you and the fire, the current and predicted weather conditions, the manpower available to get between you and the fire, the technical resources available and a few other things I'm probably forgetting. Wouldn't it be smarter to have a plan that says that if a wildfire gets within a given distance to you to evacuate? [That's exactly what I am suggesting.] You can overanalyze yourself to death. Literally. In the time you take trying to make the BEST response, you can die. I'd rather over-react then under-react. [Yep, and that is why pre-planning and thougt can be so helpful.]

I might be wrong but I don't think anyone posting here would be able to give anyone specific guidelines on what to do for every possible scenario. [ Just asking each to contribute what they can.] And frankly, I'd be very cautious in believing anyone who claims that they could do so. I've worked at a few emergency operations and controlled chaos is the best way to describe most of them. One need look no further then the recent Station Fire here in SoCal to see where otherwise intelligent, highly trained people made some fundamental errors in judgement about how and where to fight the fire. If the experts can get it wrong, how can a lay person expect to know all the stuff needed in all of the scenarios listed earlier? [Exactly, we all need all the help we can get. That is why I posted - to increase my awareness and knowledge.] It really is very subjective.


All the factors you posted indicate to me that decision-making has objective factors to consider. those are what I am after. All decision-making has both objective and subjective factors. Our job is often to try to monitor our subjective perception and bias challenges. Often we train to override our subjectivity - fear, disorientation, excitement, etcetera, to make good decisions. That is why thinking through the problems as we are doing here can be valuable. Will it lead to perfect decisions? Of course not, but hopefully better ones than if we just throw up our hands.

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#185609 - 10/16/09 07:17 PM Re: When do you flee? [Re: dweste]
Lono Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 10/19/06
Posts: 1013
Loc: Pacific NW, USA
Sue captures my answer and my region of the country. The one quibble I have is based on recent knowledge, and not so much direct experience yet - sanitation after a flood or earthquake. Talking to folks who know, certain parts of the Seattle area (specifically the Eastside) could experience sewage interruptions and backups from remote but related flooding. And the same could occur after an earthquake. The idea of staying in the house or camping in the backyard while sewage backs up through all household orifices isn't terribly appealing. Cleanup is a priority (though I still need to answer, where can cleaned up sewage go if the sewer doesn't work), but keeping my family safe and healthy is bigger still. I would tend to evacuate family members in such a situation, and proceed with a safe clean up if I could. If not, get out of dodge myself.

Bottom line, Sue nails it - know when to get out. Make a decision, have a plan, don't look back.

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#185616 - 10/16/09 08:04 PM Re: When do you flee? [Re: dweste]
Susan Offline
Geezer

Registered: 01/21/04
Posts: 5163
Loc: W. WA
"An interesting dance of communications. Surely there must be some way to describe risk assessment and decision-making in disaster / emergency situations, but my questions have not succeeded in eliciting that information."

What you're asking for is exactness in conditions that can change in moments. There isn't any cut/dried equation -- there can't be. You get ready to go and play it by ear.

Wildfire:
Which direction is the fire from you?
Which direction is the prevailing wind?
Large fires often create their own wind and weather - which way will it go?
What is the humidity?
When was the last precipitation?
How many fire companies are involved?
Do the firefighters think they can stop/control/steer it, or do they just plan on watching it?
How far do you have to go to get to safety?
Do you have to wait for anyone?
Do you have to pick up anyone on the way?
Do you have a specific place to go?
Can you get there under current conditions?

"At this point in time, all I can do is batten down the hatches, put out extra mooring lines to the dock, and deploy extra bumpers."

YOU'RE GOING TO STAY???

FOR A TSUNAMI??? For a moderate, 70-ft tsunami???

Picture this: I think large waves tend to crest in shallow water. It hits your marina and totally covers (and collects) every craft that was anchored or moored to the dock. If the power is hard enough (probably will be), it will rip all those pleasure craft loose on contact and pile many of them all together about 1/4-1/2 mile inland in massive junk piles. Since they will be all broken up, the bodies will probably be skewered on the masts. Some of the debris will be sucked back into the Bay or the ocean, mostly in chunks. There will probably be massive tides of debris for weeks. Bodies, too, or parts of them, partly eaten.

Why would you want to stay? Why not just take some gear and drive up to some park inland a bit and wait to see what happens?

Sue

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#185624 - 10/16/09 08:47 PM Re: When do you flee? [Re: Susan]
Dagny Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 11/25/08
Posts: 1918
Loc: Washington, DC

I'll go when the peril of staying seems to exceed the peril of going. A mass evacuation of this metropolitan area could be very perilous. And extremely tedious.

That said, if the incident involves radiation I'd be inclined to get out ASAP.







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#185626 - 10/16/09 09:01 PM Re: When do you flee? [Re: NightHiker]
Arney Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 09/15/05
Posts: 2485
Loc: California
Originally Posted By: NightHiker
...have a copy of their respective city/county/state Emergency Management plans...This will give you an idea of what the county agencies will be looking at in order to make their decisions.

Always good to be informed. However, keep in mind that the priorities and perspective of emergency managers/law enforcement/fire service/etc. could be quite different from the priorities and perspectives of an individual person.

Public health faces a similar dilema. Just look at the push-back from the public about various measures implemented since last April with H1N1, like school closures, travel restrictions, and now, the pandemic flu vaccine. What may seem obvious to "the experts" may not make so much sense to you, which is not to say that either side is "wrong" in the absolute sense.

Adds just another layer of, "...but maybe it won't be appropriate in this case..." to any sort of personal bug out checklist that someone may come up with. It might make sense to you but could be the wrong thing from someone else's perspective.

E.g. during the TV coverage of a wildfire here a couple years back, the news anchor was asking a fire service representative why a voluntary or mandatory evacuation hadn't been ordered for a neighborhood that seemed quite close to a new patch of fire. Part of his answer was that they didn't want to order the evacuation just yet because crews hadn't yet reached the fire line and if they jam up the roads with an evac order, it will take even longer for the fire crews to get to the fire. So, what might have seemed safe and prudent to the individual (bugging out as soon as they saw how close the flames were), in the big picture, could actually be counter-productive for the greater number of people.

Sort of like freeways clogging with pre-hurricane landfall traffic. It's good to be getting out of the danger area, but bad for everyone that you all end up stuck on the road.

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