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#163033 - 01/14/09 02:35 AM Re: How long do you figure a long time is? [Re: Eugene]
capsu78 Offline
Journeyman

Registered: 01/09/07
Posts: 98
Loc: Chicagoland IL
Agree with most previous posts, but here is a different take, particularly for those with families.
First 8-12 hours are reality checks and fire drills that impact the first nights comfort.
Second day, a good group attitude makes it a bit of a can do camp out .
The 3rd day, without showers or the once basic, now luxury amenities, is when many best laid plans break down and people start bailing out for relatives or whatever other "greener pastures" might be found. My desire to "hang tough on the home front" might not be the group consensus.
I mention this in that some thought might want to go into pre-planning for splitting up the group into "comfort" vs "securing the home base" efforts. Arguing over this during the event itself might be counter productive. For me, and my family I want some options to choose from.
_________________________
"The last time I had a "good suprise", I was 5 and it was my birthday"

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#163037 - 01/14/09 03:03 AM Re: How long do you figure a long time is? [Re: capsu78]
Eric Offline
Enthusiast

Registered: 09/09/06
Posts: 323
Loc: Iowa
I guess I agree with the general consensus of 2-3 weeks but there are a lot of modifiers on this that haven't come up yet. I live in the midwest so there are seasonal (and scenario) variations that have to be considered. A severe winter storm that takes out power etc. is different than a severe summer storm that does similar damage.

One example to consider - running a generator for weeks in the winter can be a major effort, especially if the "Alberta clippers" keep pounding the area every couple of days with more ice, snow and cold!! In the summer you can usually run the generator for a while then shutdown a while (unless your sump pump is running flat out to keep the basement dry) but unless your house is designed to be heated without electricity you will need to run it pretty much continuously. Restoration of services / repairs always seem to take a lot longer in the winter too. smile

Another example - here in the midwest a winter storm might take out your power and isolate you due to snow and ice. A severe thunderstorm / tornado could have the same effect in warmer months (power lines down, trees/debris on the road or the road just plain gone) but adds in the bonus round opportunity of having your home literally blow away. That one last one is basically a call to dig out the credit cards. Luckily tornados have a relatively small footprint so supplies should be available for purchase. smile

So sometimes long is only a couple of days or hours "on site" and than a shift to more of a transition phase which will vary in length.

- Eric


Edited by Eric (01/14/09 03:05 AM)
Edit Reason: typos
_________________________
You are never beaten until you admit it. - - General George S. Patton


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#163045 - 01/14/09 03:25 AM Re: How long do you figure a long time is? [Re: Eric]
Art_in_FL Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 09/01/07
Posts: 2432
IMO it goes like this:

I figure three to ten days where I'm entirely isolated and totally dependent on what I have on hand to provide water, food, shelter, medical treatment, transportation and security.

Another ten to thirty days where there are shortages, limitations and interruptions in normal resources availability.

Six months to a year of minor disruptions and adjustments. You never really get back to the way things were. Over time people usually adjust and accommodate the new situation and after a time it becomes the new normal.

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#163054 - 01/14/09 04:12 AM Re: How long do you figure a long time is? [Re: wildman800]
philip Offline
Addict

Registered: 09/19/05
Posts: 639
Loc: San Francisco Bay Area
> I expect to see "normal" within 3 to 5 months, or up to 5 years, depending
> on the nature and severity of the occurrance.

In the San Francisco Bay Area, if there's a major earthquake, I expect the area will never return to its pre-disaster condition. "Normal" will be the new, post-disaster normal like New Orleans. "Normal" will not be a return to before the quake.

Given that, I expect a rescue in a couple of weeks, but we have food for the two of us for a month.

We also have a problem with prescriptions - I don't have a month's supply and I don't think my wife does either.

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#163058 - 01/14/09 04:30 AM Re: How long do you figure a long time is? [Re: wildman800]
EdD270 Offline
Journeyman

Registered: 12/03/08
Posts: 94
Loc: White Mountains of Arizona
As previously mentioned, "help arrives" and "back to normal" are not the same thing, and are usually seperated by several days, or weeks or months, of very stressful times. It's best to be prepared to care for all your needs for as long as possible. The often mentioned "72 hour kit" is a joke in my opinion. You should have a minimum of a week, not just three days. After a major disaster, help realistically won't be there for at least a week. Our "72 hour kit", or BOB, gives us the necessities for a full month. We consider anything up to 90 days to be short term. Over 90 days is long term, and could, and probably will, extend to years after a major natural disaster, before "normal" returns. We have a "BOT", an old fully enclosed trailer with our gear in it for up to six months, if we have to evacuate. We try to avoid leaving, as it greatly reduces our capacity to carry what we need for extended periods of time. If we can stay home, we're good for a couple of years.
Prescription medicines are a concern for many, especially those with chronic health problems or the elderly, like us. That's why we get prescriptions at K-Mart or Walgreens, so se can go to any store in the US and get refills, and we also use on-line services. We feel comfortable with our setup. It has held up through floods in Missouri, tornados in Colorado and a HUGE wildfire here in Arizona. If things go bad for a long time, we just go on with our plan.
_________________________
"Most men take the straight and narrow. A few take the road less traveled. I chose to cut through the woods." ~Unknown~

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#163081 - 01/14/09 01:36 PM Re: How long do you figure a long time is? [Re: EdD270]
Desperado Offline
Veteran

Registered: 11/01/08
Posts: 1530
Loc: DFW, Texas
Ok, what about folks who's prescriptions are "controlled substances"? DW has said scripts and cannot get more than 30 days supply. Without them she has withdraw symptoms within 24 hours and goes into severe side effects within 48 hours. If the storm hits and she is two days from her next appointment, we have a serious problem.

Any ideas????
_________________________
I do the things that I must, and really regret, are unfortunately necessary.

RIP OBG

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#163083 - 01/14/09 01:47 PM Re: How long do you figure a long time is? [Re: Desperado]
benjammin Offline
Rapscallion
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 02/06/04
Posts: 4020
Loc: Anchorage AK
My wife has similar prescription issues. My recommendation is to pull a dose or two from each prescription if she can tolerate it and stash them till you have built up a 30 day supply, then be sure and rotate that backup so they don't expire. Sometimes you can talk your doctor into writing a second prescription. They usually aren't sympathetic to the notion of stockpiling, but it doesn't hurt to ask, and if they say no, then back to plan a.
_________________________
The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly is to fill the world with fools.
-- Herbert Spencer, English Philosopher (1820-1903)

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#163127 - 01/14/09 06:09 PM Re: How long do you figure a long time is? [Re: benjammin]
tomfaranda Offline
Enthusiast

Registered: 02/14/08
Posts: 301
Loc: Croton on Hudson, NY
I think for most prescriptions, if you explain you want it as an emergency back-up - a physician will write it for you.

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#163130 - 01/14/09 06:28 PM Re: How long do you figure a long time is? [Re: tomfaranda]
Desperado Offline
Veteran

Registered: 11/01/08
Posts: 1530
Loc: DFW, Texas
Uh, not always for the scripts she is on. Put mildly, I could lay an entire company of infantry low with 14 days worth of her meds.

Most psychiatrists will not advance script due to dangers and DEA controls.


_________________________
I do the things that I must, and really regret, are unfortunately necessary.

RIP OBG

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#163136 - 01/14/09 06:49 PM Re: How long do you figure a long time is? [Re: Desperado]
benjammin Offline
Rapscallion
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 02/06/04
Posts: 4020
Loc: Anchorage AK
Ergo, my suggestion to set aside one or two a month. What hardship she would go through for skipping one day would be nothing compared to if she had to do without for an extended period later. You do what you can with what you got.
_________________________
The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly is to fill the world with fools.
-- Herbert Spencer, English Philosopher (1820-1903)

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