Equipped To Survive Equipped To Survive® Presents
The Survival Forum
Where do you want to go on ETS?

Page 2 of 5 < 1 2 3 4 5 >
Topic Options
#153792 - 10/31/08 01:13 AM Re: Correct Risk Assessment With Math [Re: Am_Fear_Liath_Mor]
Susan Offline
Geezer

Registered: 01/21/04
Posts: 5163
Loc: W. WA
"There is a very strong correlation between premature death and a persons income."

More than you know. If crowded shopping malls are terrorist targets, only the people who can afford to shop at the malls (or work there) are likely to be victims. I'm pretty safe.

Only people who can afford to fly are likely to be involved in terrorist takeover of planes. I'm pretty safe.

I can't remember the last time I was in a high-rise, although the floor of my mobile home is about three feet (1m) off the ground. Since I live in a town that has one whole signal light, you may correctly assume that there aren't many high-rises around here. I'm pretty safe.

I just hope I'm not on the Alaskan Way Viaduct in ANY kind of an earthquake. It's predicted to be the first thing to go down.

I live in the county that is said to be the meth lab center of WA. Sooooo, there is a reasonably good possibility of a zombie attack.

It's always something.

Sue

Top
#153793 - 10/31/08 01:19 AM Re: Correct Risk Assessment With Math [Re: nursemike]
TeacherRO Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 03/11/05
Posts: 2574
Excellent points - While slipping in the tub or a car crash isn't as 'sexy' as a tsunami, both are many factors more likely. Plan for the likely and the realistic:

- fire extinguisher, smoke ( and co2) alarms, evacuation plan
_ take care of your health
_Use common sense

Just a few pointers to start


( ans those 100 year floods? They seem to be hitting about every 20 years...)

Top
#153794 - 10/31/08 01:21 AM Re: Correct Risk Assessment With Math [Re: nursemike]
ironraven Offline
Cranky Geek
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 09/08/05
Posts: 4642
Loc: Vermont
ROFL!!!! I was just thinking the same thing myself- it isn't much fun to scrub the tub. It is fun to prep for a flood. Even more for zombies.
_________________________
-IronRaven

When a man dare not speak without malice for fear of giving insult, that is when truth starts to die. Truth is the truest freedom.

Top
#153797 - 10/31/08 01:47 AM Re: Correct Risk Assessment With Math [Re: ironraven]
BobS Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 02/08/08
Posts: 924
Loc: Toledo Ohio
Originally Posted By: ironraven
ROFL!!!! I was just thinking the same thing myself- it isn't much fun to scrub the tub. It is fun to prep for a flood. Even more for zombies.


The difference between men and boys is the price of their toys.


Zombie prep takes expensive and cool toys… crazy
_________________________



You can run, but you'll only die tired.


Top
#153798 - 10/31/08 02:01 AM Re: Correct Risk Assessment With Math [Re: BobS]
justmeagain Offline
Journeyman

Registered: 12/07/07
Posts: 67
I think on an individual level survivial is a binary equation. You get in your car and you make it to your destination or you don't. Your plane crashes or it doesn't. You don't live 98% of the time and die 2% of the time. You either live or die. Group statistics do not mean much on an individual basis.

Top
#153828 - 10/31/08 12:35 PM Re: Correct Risk Assessment With Math [Re: MartinFocazio]
Eugene Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 12/26/02
Posts: 2995
Thats why I don't worry about my truck being EMP proof or things like that, I see the chances of that being very slim. I looked for the safest vehicle to commute in and had to weigh the safety standards, for example unibody cars test safer in a single car accident such as falling asleep or being drunk and running off the road but frame vehicles are safer in multi car accidents where you get hit by or hit another car. Since I don't drive while sleepy, drunk, etc my chances of being in the single car accident are slimmer then the chances of being hit by someone else.

Top
#153829 - 10/31/08 12:37 PM Re: Correct Risk Assessment With Math [Re: justmeagain]
7point82 Offline
Addict

Registered: 11/24/05
Posts: 478
Loc: Orange Beach, AL
I used to have a conversation similar to this with my DW every time I took off on a climbing, canyoneering or solo backpacking trip. I always told her that she was more likely to get in trouble on the local speedw.... er, freeway than I was in the backcountry of AZ, UT, etc.

Every time a hiker gets in trouble it makes the national news & yet auto accidents kill folks in droves.
_________________________
"There is not a man of us who does not at times need a helping hand to be stretched out to him, and then shame upon him who will not stretch out the helping hand to his brother." -Theodore Roosevelt

Top
#153830 - 10/31/08 12:39 PM Re: Correct Risk Assessment With Math [Re: MartinFocazio]
jaywalke Offline
Member

Registered: 12/22/07
Posts: 172
Loc: Appalachian mountains
Originally Posted By: martinfocazio
in any given year, your chances of having a monster flood is 1%.

It also means that each year you live in a place, you're increasingly at risk of experiencing the 1% event - in fact, if you live in the same place for 50 years, you have a 50% chance of experiencing a 100 yer flood (same goes for 25 years = 25%, etc. with the 100 year flood example)


This seemed fuzzy to me. Thankfully, I work in a research institute, and there is a world-class mathematician sitting one office away who was willing to take a look at it.

So, if you live in this flood plain for fifty years, what you actually have are fifty chances of a 1% event. That's not the same as a 50% chance.

Imagine you are flipping a coin, and it comes up heads 99 times in a row. What's the probability it will come up heads again? It seems low, but it's actually still 50%, because the final flip (experiment) is completely unaffected by the prior 99.

To figure out the actual probability of a flood over a fifty year period, you'd have to know whether or not there was any correlation between the chance of a flood and the length of time between floods. I don't think there is, but unfortunately we don't have meteorologists here. If there is no correlation, nothing that increases the risk if, say, there hasn't been a flood in a decade, then your risk remains 1%, no matter how many years you live there.



Top
#153832 - 10/31/08 12:49 PM Re: Correct Risk Assessment With Math [Re: justmeagain]
nursemike Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 11/09/06
Posts: 870
Loc: wellington, fl
Originally Posted By: justmeagain
I think on an individual level survivial is a binary equation. You get in your car and you make it to your destination or you don't. Your plane crashes or it doesn't. You don't live 98% of the time and die 2% of the time. You either live or die. Group statistics do not mean much on an individual basis.


Well said. This is why the mortality rate hasn't changed in the past ten thousand years: one per person.

Given this, it is important that every one believe in something: I believe I will have a beer.
_________________________
Dance like you have never been hurt, work like no one is watching,love like you don't need the money.

Top
#153834 - 10/31/08 01:02 PM Re: Correct Risk Assessment With Math [Re: Arney]
7point82 Offline
Addict

Registered: 11/24/05
Posts: 478
Loc: Orange Beach, AL
Originally Posted By: Arney
Martin, help me with the math here--zombies? I've tried looking but I can't seem to find a reliable risk for a sudden outbreak of zombies or the undead. I hear so many people mention them and how they need lots of guns in anticipation. I don't want to be left unprepared.

All kidding aside, it's always good to be reminded of the "real" risks out there. Unfortunately, statistics are boring. They're not interesting like zombies.


I think (I could always be wrong wink ) that most folks have guns around for protection against violent crime more than zombies. It's the robber in the parking lot or home invasion that more folks worry about.

IMHO every able bodied male should own one in order to come to the defense of those less able to take care of themselves. They (guns) are just one of the tools that I think every man should own.

Although, in case of zombies, a gun would be especially nice to have around. grin
_________________________
"There is not a man of us who does not at times need a helping hand to be stretched out to him, and then shame upon him who will not stretch out the helping hand to his brother." -Theodore Roosevelt

Top
Page 2 of 5 < 1 2 3 4 5 >



Moderator:  Alan_Romania, Blast, cliff, Hikin_Jim 
March
Su M Tu W Th F Sa
1 2
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16
17 18 19 20 21 22 23
24 25 26 27 28 29 30
31
Who's Online
1 registered (adam2), 444 Guests and 319 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Newest Members
GallenR, Jeebo, NicholasMarshall, Yadav, BenFoakes
5367 Registered Users
Newest Posts
What did you do today to prepare?
by dougwalkabout
03/27/24 11:21 PM
Zippo Butane Inserts
by dougwalkabout
03/27/24 11:11 PM
Question about a "Backyard Mutitool"
by Ren
03/17/24 01:00 AM
Problem in my WhatsApp configuration
by Chisel
03/09/24 01:55 PM
New Madrid Seismic Zone
by Jeanette_Isabelle
03/04/24 02:44 PM
EDC Reduction
by EchoingLaugh
03/02/24 04:12 PM
Newest Images
Tiny knife / wrench
Handmade knives
2"x2" Glass Signal Mirror, Retroreflective Mesh
Trade School Tool Kit
My Pocket Kit
Glossary
Test

WARNING & DISCLAIMER: SELECT AND USE OUTDOORS AND SURVIVAL EQUIPMENT, SUPPLIES AND TECHNIQUES AT YOUR OWN RISK. Information posted on this forum is not reviewed for accuracy and may not be reliable, use at your own risk. Please review the full WARNING & DISCLAIMER about information on this site.