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#151326 - 10/09/08 12:01 AM Well, now we're into a new territory.
MartinFocazio Offline

Pooh-Bah

Registered: 01/21/03
Posts: 2177
Loc: Bucks County PA
Hmm....I may have been a little optimistic in the assessment of the financial situation at large. Us folks working in my industry (Digital Media Development) are still very busy, so maybe I didn't really see it so well. Also, NYC is pretty darn diverse in terms of the kinds of industries here.

http://www.clusterstock.com/2008/10/sp500-worst-decline-for-year

"You can't sugarcoat it... We're now looking at the worst year-to-date decline in the S&P 500 ever."

The year-to-date drop is right around -33.7%

BUT

According to Political Calculations, the worst 12-month period (not calendar year) for the S&P 500 was June 1931-July 1932, when it fell 63.8%.

Well, I guess I have to admit, the manure has indeed hit the HVAC inlets.

At the same time, I have no intention of cutting back on my LOCAL spending that much. In fact, I'm increasing it. LOCAL merchants are people I know, owners of small businesses, making middle-class wages just like me, and I'd like to see them stay in business. So maybe I'll spend 50 cents more than Home Depot on that set of door hinges at the local hardware store - but Gene has been there for almost 40 years, and he's been a great guy to me and my family. And so forth.

2009 is going to be a year we'll be telling our grandkids about.


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#151365 - 10/09/08 03:40 AM Re: Well, now we're into a new territory. [Re: ]
Todd W Offline
Product Tester
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 11/14/04
Posts: 1928
Loc: Mountains of CA
Saving my $ for home repairs....
_________________________
Self Sufficient Home - Our journey to self sufficiency.

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#151370 - 10/09/08 06:02 AM Re: Well, now we're into a new territory. [Re: Todd W]
wildman800 Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/09/06
Posts: 2845
Loc: La-USA
Greetings,

I have been going to my local merchants first for quite a few years. If they don't carry what I need, then I'll go to the big box stores.

We've started going to the local Farmer's Market before going to the grocery store, so as to keep as much of our money in the local area, as possible.

I've come up with additional contingency plans to start providing more of our own food via garden vegetables and possibly chickens/eggs. Procuring and developing a canning capability is already in the works.

Since I stay confused on whether I am an "Optimistic Pessimist" or a "Pessimistic Optimist", I expect some hyperinflation in the near future (good time to pay off bills) before we can expect deflation. I feel that the coming times are going to create some disruptions in the "just in time" delivery system which is going to translate into some grocery shelf empty space, gas shortages, etc.

IMHO, this is a very good time to explore and/or create "options" that will address my worse fears. I am preparing my back yard to better support a garden. This requires removal of a tree and an old wooden jungle gym/fort. Building some raised garden beds, procuring more pots (for herbal plants), etc. I'm even entertaining some ideas for making the front yard productive for some gardening.
_________________________
QMC, USCG (Ret)
The best luck is what you make yourself!

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#151379 - 10/09/08 11:45 AM Re: Well, now we're into a new territory. [Re: wildman800]
NIM Offline
Member

Registered: 02/12/03
Posts: 128
I agree that things are a changing.

I too have upped my tips to 25% and shop locally. I also joined a food co-op to keep food production local. The closer the food is made the better (in my opinion). $500 and I get enough organic veggies for a family of four for the year.

I'm not too worried about me...but ugggh. the food banks are under heavy load where I live and the economy hasn't bottomed out yet.

I usually donate $500-$1000 dollars a year to the food bank (I've had so many blessings myself), but I worry about my friends too. Most of them do not have the preparedness mindset. It pains me to think that friends, families and children may go without food.
What can you do for them? Keep stocks set aside for them? I live in an apartment where room is at a premium.

Let's hope things don't change THAT much eh?


Hope you are all doing ok! Remember that keeping your spirits up will pull up those around you. Keeping your cool will help others keep theirs.

Peace and love,

NIM

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#151381 - 10/09/08 11:54 AM Re: Well, now we're into a new territory. [Re: NIM]
benjammin Offline
Rapscallion
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 02/06/04
Posts: 4020
Loc: Anchorage AK
I tip when I am on expenses and the company pays, otherwise I will tip from my own pocket as soon as I start getting tips at my job.

I still don't consider this a recession. It is a market correction to reduce the fluff. This will winnow out the risk from the true value of the markets. Higher highs always mean lower lows in the market.

This too shall pass.
_________________________
The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly is to fill the world with fools.
-- Herbert Spencer, English Philosopher (1820-1903)

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#151385 - 10/09/08 12:25 PM Re: Well, now we're into a new territory. [Re: benjammin]
MartinFocazio Offline

Pooh-Bah

Registered: 01/21/03
Posts: 2177
Loc: Bucks County PA
Originally Posted By: benjammin

I still don't consider this a recession. It is a market correction to reduce the fluff. This will winnow out the risk from the true value of the markets. Higher highs always mean lower lows in the market.


Agreed...sort of. It's definitely a recession. No question there for me.

Again, I think my opinions of things have been warped by the fact that my HR person is CONSTANTLY harping on us looking for new hires, and we seem to be always just on the edge of under-staffed, but not quite - we're "well utilized" in the parlance of the HR folks.

But that's in my industry, at my company, in New York City.

Back home, some folks (admittedly not terribly BRIGHT folks) are throwing around terms like "it's a depression, for sure" as if they have the slightest CLUE what a depression is like.

You see, some of my co-workers fled Russia in the early 1990's, as the Soviet Union collapsed, and they have told me of what an economic collapse is all about. It's not about a low-paying job, it's about going to the park, near the playground where your kids used to play, and cutting down the trees for fuel so those same kids don't freeze to death in the winter. It's about feeding a family from canned beans once a day, every day, for a year. It's about rushing to the sink to collect water during the 2 hours a day the power is on. This from a guy who's father was an established computer programmer in the USSR's space program, a man who, once he lost his job at the age of 61, never worked full time again until he died (at the age of 67). That's a collapse. What we're having now is an annoyance by comparison. Americans don't know what hardship is, I don't know what it is.

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#151386 - 10/09/08 12:28 PM Re: Well, now we're into a new territory. [Re: benjammin]
Grouch Offline
Enthusiast

Registered: 07/02/08
Posts: 395
Loc: Ohio
Speaking of new territory, now the Feds are considering becoming stakeholders in banks to restore confidence in the banking system. Does this instill confidence in you? Can this be anything but a bad idea?

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,434844,00.html

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#151392 - 10/09/08 01:45 PM Re: Well, now we're into a new territory. [Re: Grouch]
clarktx Offline
Enthusiast

Registered: 07/01/08
Posts: 250
Loc: Houston, Texas
hey maybe they will do what iceland did, and set it up where the government can take over any company as needed, force board meetings to convene, etc...

Its quite strange, but I was going to link the article for you. its here .

But the article seems to be completely rewritten. confused

I've posted the original here .

The part I'm referencing says: ... referring to the sweeping new powers that allow the government to take over companies, limit the authority of boards and call shareholder meetings.

Thats NEW TERRITORY. Actually, its old territory. But you know the saying, if a little of a bad thing doesn't work, try a lot of a bad thing.

That is a saying isn't it? whistle

_________________________
You can't teach experience.

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#151393 - 10/09/08 01:47 PM Re: Well, now we're into a new territory. [Re: MartinFocazio]
Am_Fear_Liath_Mor Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 08/03/07
Posts: 3078
Even the US National Debt clock in New York has just ran out of digits enough to display a number greater than $9,999,999,999,999.

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/US/10/09/national.debt.clock.ap/index.html


Quote:
It will be capable of tracking debt up to a quadrillion dollar


Well, at least someones got a sense of humour.. shocked


Edited by Am_Fear_Liath_Mor (10/09/08 01:49 PM)

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#151395 - 10/09/08 02:06 PM Re: Well, now we're into a new territory. [Re: Am_Fear_Liath_Mor]
unimogbert Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 08/10/06
Posts: 881
Loc: Colorado
Katrina was "new territory" for New Orleans. They'd survived hurricanes before so folks always expected to survive them every time afterwards. All it takes is being wrong once.

It is possible that this time it is indeed different. There are a number of factors which add up to a different environment in which to recover which could inhibit or prevent the recovery.

As preparedness folks we ought to be willing to examine and prepare for the entire spectrum of possibilities. (i.e. Keep that axe sharp so that you can be first to the park to get your firewood :-(

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