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#152143 - 10/16/08 07:23 PM Re: Well, now we're into a new territory. [Re: Dan_McI]
benjammin Offline
Rapscallion
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 02/06/04
Posts: 4020
Loc: Anchorage AK
I haven't changed my opinion from last month, which is that the market will fall a little below 8,000 this year before it stabilizes and the oscillation settles down. Then it will slowly start creeping up again. With all the speculators off licking their wounds, the market will be driven by real value investment, and a much more conservative trading personality, where investment will be based more about whether a company can actually achieve a higher net worth by production share. I know that isn't what the stock market is about anymore, but it is still sound investment advice.
_________________________
The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly is to fill the world with fools.
-- Herbert Spencer, English Philosopher (1820-1903)

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#152146 - 10/16/08 08:13 PM Re: Well, now we're into a new territory. [Re: benjammin]
Henry_Porter Offline
Member

Registered: 03/24/07
Posts: 111
I'm already seeing affects in my business as clients and suppliers cut jobs and scale back projects as they begin to have cashflow problems.

I don't understand much about "high finance" nor economics, so that may contribute to my growing *feeling* of unease.

If I understand it, the liquidity problems that banks are experiencing are deflationary.

I know some oil producing countries have been moving away from U.S. dollars to other currencies. (pre-war Iraq, Iran, Russia, Venezuela, ring any bells?)

I know the federal Reserve has been printing a huge amount of dollars this year and last, and this increase in the money supply has been creating inflation.

It seems the value of the U.S. dollar is in grave jeopardy.

On a personal, day-to-day basis, I've basically been in scramble mode for a few months and am making good progress but not quickly enough I fear. Just trying to keep a level head, keep doing what I think I need to do and move ahead faster than I usually do. Definitely new territory for me!


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#152179 - 10/17/08 03:45 AM Re: Well, now we're into a new territory. [Re: Henry_Porter]
Arney Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 09/15/05
Posts: 2485
Loc: California
Originally Posted By: Henry_Porter
On a personal...Just trying to keep a level head, keep doing what I think I need to do and move ahead faster than I usually do.

I hear ya, Henry. But you've got the right attitude. Don't panic but do what you think is the right thing to do even if other people around you may be losing their heads.

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#152216 - 10/17/08 04:54 PM Re: Well, now we're into a new territory. [Re: Arney]
NIM Offline
Member

Registered: 02/12/03
Posts: 128
Local report:

I'm getting about half the people I talk to speaking in a panic-type tone. Even professors have said they have serious concerns and wonder what to do. A good portion of my friends have lost 15% of their savings this year. People are worried....well half of them are...the rest may have untouchable faith.

The local mine used to sell metal at $23+/lb now it is at $5/lb.
I haven't seen anything like this (I mean people's opinions). I'm in Canada (whose banking system was rated #1 world wide). What is it like where you guys (and gals) are?

What is the feeling of the people that you talk to?

Looking with a certain level of detachment,

NIM

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#152224 - 10/17/08 05:42 PM Re: Well, now we're into a new territory. [Re: NIM]
thseng Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 03/24/06
Posts: 900
Loc: NW NJ
Now I know what they mean when the talk about skydiving: "Why would you jump out of a perfectly good, safe, secure airplane?"

Well, I just (literally minutes ago) jumped out of a perfectly good, safe, secure job into the unknown. This during the "Worst Economic Crisis Since The Great Depression"

_________________________
- Tom S.

"Never trust and engineer who doesn't carry a pocketknife."

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#152228 - 10/17/08 06:19 PM Re: Well, now we're into a new territory. [Re: thseng]
Blast Offline
INTERCEPTOR
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 07/15/02
Posts: 3760
Loc: TX
Best of luck to ya!

-Blast
_________________________
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Medicine Man Plant Co.
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#152231 - 10/17/08 07:10 PM Re: Well, now we're into a new territory. [Re: Blast]
benjammin Offline
Rapscallion
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 02/06/04
Posts: 4020
Loc: Anchorage AK
Most of the people I am around are pretty much business as usual.

It just seems like so much fooferah right now. I am inclined to believe that eventually this mess will catch up with us, but right now it is too soon for the vast majority of us to feel the immediate impacts of the market correction. Maybe it is just that my present situation is more insulated than others, but I don't see anyone really taking a big hit around me yet. I expect it will come, but it is still far off on the horizon from my perspective.
_________________________
The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly is to fill the world with fools.
-- Herbert Spencer, English Philosopher (1820-1903)

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#152237 - 10/17/08 07:39 PM Re: Well, now we're into a new territory. [Re: benjammin]
wildman800 Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/09/06
Posts: 2845
Loc: La-USA
One company in the Marine Industry started releasing some of the boats chartered by them.

When all the Chartered boats have been released, then the leased boats will be let go as their leases expire.

That's when you will start seeing the small Marine Transportation Companies start to fold, thus easing the shortage of Pilots, Engineers, Tankerman, and Deckhands as they become laid off from those failed companies.

The process has been started and is being accelerated by the credit crunch since "Letters of Credit" are not being issued by banks, thus ships are not being loaded, because overseas purchases cannot be transacted.

This also means that we can expect to see some shortages of goods on store shelves fairly soon!
_________________________
QMC, USCG (Ret)
The best luck is what you make yourself!

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#152241 - 10/17/08 09:11 PM Re: Well, now we're into a new territory. [Re: wildman800]
Arney Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 09/15/05
Posts: 2485
Loc: California
Originally Posted By: wildman800
This also means that we can expect to see some shortages of goods on store shelves fairly soon!

Funny, I was a little bit worried about the same thing earlier in the summer when fuel prices were rising and truckers were all crying uncle. Now oil and fuel prices are dropping quickly. Who knows? A comeback of the SUV and American auto manufacturers???

I haven't heard anything on local news about operations at the Port of Los Angeles being affected yet.

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