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#132175 - 05/07/08 06:09 AM Economic survival
redflare Offline
Addict

Registered: 12/25/05
Posts: 647
Loc: SF Bay Area, CA
I am thinking about getting this book The Coming Economic Collapse.... Amazon reviews look pretty favorable.

Has anyone here read it, or other books similar to it? If yes, what did you think of it?

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#132178 - 05/07/08 11:01 AM Re: Economic survival [Re: redflare]
TS_Shawn Offline
Newbie

Registered: 03/11/08
Posts: 38
Loc: Washington, D.C.
Rather than buy that book, I'd invest in a Vanguard index fund.

Seriously.

Ever since I can remember -- which is since the 70s -- there's been a gloom-and-doom industry peddling all manner of fates to dread.

The world's population is going to freeze, melt, starve, be extinguished by some natural or man-made disaster.

Economic apocalypse is another perennial. I don't buy it and I wouldn't waste money on a book about it, especially if we were headed for an economic cliff. That would be, after all, when you most need to save your resources.

Economies cycle through good times, bad times and mediocre times. I'm confident we're not going to repeat the Great Depression, let alone anything worse than that. Oil prices will subside in the next couple years, housing prices will drop further and then flatten for a few years and the world will hum along.

That said, I might thumb through a copy -- for free -- at the bookstore.

:-)




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#132184 - 05/07/08 01:19 PM Re: Economic survival [Re: TS_Shawn]
justmeagain Offline
Journeyman

Registered: 12/07/07
Posts: 67
You can always find these gloom and doom books, I'm certain the authors mean well, but somehow these crazy predictions never come through. From an investment standpoint diversifying your assets and taking a long term horizon trumps all the crazy swings in the market.

Scott Burns' articles on couch potato investing are right on the money; simple diversification and long term planning. Over a long period of time you are well served with his advice. Burns used to be a financial write for the Dallas Morning News and is now semi-retired and is involved with a money management firm. That said, his couch potato investment idea goes back long before his new career.
http://assetbuilder.com/tags/Couch+Potato+Investing/default.aspx

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#132208 - 05/07/08 04:36 PM Re: Economic survival [Re: redflare]
Loganenator Offline
Bike guy
Member

Registered: 05/04/07
Posts: 151
Loc: Sacramento, CA, USA
Hey Redflare! You have a great business and its awesome that you contribute to the forum here!

I have not read that book yet but I have been meaning to check it out of our local library. Noticing the publication date I think the author's approach is valid. It appears it was written before most of the major indicators of a "credit crisis" were apparent. I have read Heinburg's "the party's over" and "power down" on similar topics and my wife and I felt a great awakening in 2006-2007.

While I always admire the courage of good scepticism in the other comments here and their advice on investing is valid, I would like to add my own experience. My wife and I have tried to plan for the worst and hope for the best when it comes to our economic situation. After reading a number of books, news articles and research from dozens of legitimate sources we realized we needed to make some changes to minimize our risk. Our strategy is mostly in line with current investment advice but with a cynical instead of optimistic planning perspective. I'd like to hear any criticism on our decisions as well to balance my perspective. Our goals were as follows:

1. Eliminate our debt. (We cashed in our retirement (we are only in our mid to late twenties though so its not as critical) and paid off the student loans/car loans).
2. Minimize our living costs by owning shelter. (We currently rent but we are saving about 50% of our income for very small home on a small bit of land we can afford).
3. Minimize our dependance on oil. (We moved closer to work, sold our only car and purchased used bikes).
4. Invest in food and water: storage and processing (e.g. grain mill and water filters to hedge against any short term food/water inflation and prepare for emergencies in complement to our bug-out plans).

Good luck Red Flare! Addiction to oil is a tough habit to kick. Withdrawals honestly weren't bad as an individual but as a society/nation I am concerned that oil withdrawals could be disastrous.

Cheers,
Nemo.

Edit to include this Caveat:

And in case you are wondering, no my wife and I are not "survivalists". We don't have a "bomb shelter" or a teepee in the woods. We are hard working citizens of the U.S.A that just want to minimize our risk and be as independent and prepared as we can be. wink


Edited by Nemo (05/07/08 04:40 PM)
_________________________
You must be the change you wish to see in the world - MK Gandhi


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#132212 - 05/07/08 04:48 PM Re: Economic survival [Re: Loganenator]
Loganenator Offline
Bike guy
Member

Registered: 05/04/07
Posts: 151
Loc: Sacramento, CA, USA
Hey redflare,

I also wanted to thank you for your recommendation of the Parable series books by Octavia Butler. I just finished the novels. Horrific tale and vision of the near future but a valuable reflection of human nature and a new perspective on BOB planning.

Cheers,
Nemo
_________________________
You must be the change you wish to see in the world - MK Gandhi


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#132213 - 05/07/08 04:52 PM Re: Economic survival [Re: Loganenator]
thseng Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 03/24/06
Posts: 900
Loc: NW NJ
Originally Posted By: Nemo
1. Eliminate our debt. (We cashed in our retirement (we are only in our mid to late twenties though so its not as critical) and paid off the student loans/car loans).
2. Minimize our living costs by owning shelter. (We currently rent but we are saving about 50% of our income for very small home on a small bit of land we can afford).
3. Minimize our dependance on oil. (We moved closer to work, sold our only car and purchased used bikes).
4. Invest in food and water: storage and processing (e.g. grain mill and water filters to hedge against any short term food/water inflation and prepare for emergencies in complement to our bug-out plans).

Reminds me of Dave Ramsey's "7 Baby Steps":
#1 $1,000 to start an Emergency Fund
#2 Pay off all debt using the Debt Snowball
#3 Three to six months of expenses in savings
#4 Invest 15 percent of household income into Roth IRAs and pre-tax retirement
#5 College funding for children
#6 Pay off home early
#7 Build wealth and give! Invest in mutual funds and real estate

_________________________
- Tom S.

"Never trust and engineer who doesn't carry a pocketknife."

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#132222 - 05/07/08 05:46 PM Re: Economic survival [Re: Loganenator]
SirJoel Offline
Newbie

Registered: 05/15/06
Posts: 39
Originally Posted By: Nemo
And in case you are wondering, no my wife and I are not "survivalists". We don't have a "bomb shelter" or a teepee in the woods. We are hard working citizens of the U.S.A that just want to minimize our risk and be as independent and prepared as we can be. wink


I had more fun thinking of them in the teepee in the woods and they had to go and ruin that by being normal... smile

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#132239 - 05/07/08 07:23 PM Re: Economic survival [Re: SirJoel]
Loganenator Offline
Bike guy
Member

Registered: 05/04/07
Posts: 151
Loc: Sacramento, CA, USA
Sir Joel,

I do have friends who just started living "off-grid" in a yurt. Its not a Teepee but its close wink . We are observing their transition challenges before we even think about anything that small and off-grid. Even then Yurts seem a little temporary. More like longer term tents. wink


Edited by Nemo (05/07/08 07:23 PM)
_________________________
You must be the change you wish to see in the world - MK Gandhi


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#132244 - 05/07/08 07:44 PM Re: Economic survival [Re: redflare]
jshannon Offline
Addict

Registered: 02/02/03
Posts: 647
Loc: North Texas
Most do not need to read a book when economic survival can be summed up in four words..."Live within your means"?

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#132249 - 05/07/08 08:19 PM Re: Economic survival [Re: jshannon]
MoBOB Offline
Veteran

Registered: 09/17/07
Posts: 1219
Loc: here
The bikes are not as handy if children (babies) are dropped off by the stork. Those car seats just don't seem designed for bike trailers.

If you are not having children I guess the bikes are a good idea; for now. Just plan for how to commute with a broken/sprained limb.
_________________________
"Its not a matter of being ready as it is being prepared" -- B. E. J. Taylor

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#132255 - 05/07/08 09:00 PM Re: Economic survival [Re: MoBOB]
OIMO Offline
Opinion Is My Own
Journeyman

Registered: 08/03/07
Posts: 57
Loc: UK
I did not read the article but on the front page of today's (London) Financial Times is a snippet saying the Bear Sterns analyst who first predicted oil reaching $100 a barrel in the timeframes when it did is now saying he thinks it will hit $200 a barrel inside of two years. So minimising dependence on oil may be a smart move.

On the more general theme as other have said good financial planning normally means 1) live within your means 2) pay off your debts and 3) diversify your investments to reduce the 'eggs in one basket' risk.


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#132260 - 05/07/08 09:38 PM Re: Economic survival [Re: redflare]
Loganenator Offline
Bike guy
Member

Registered: 05/04/07
Posts: 151
Loc: Sacramento, CA, USA
I just found an interesting/scary article on oil and economics released today which might lend to this discussion:

Hey MoBoB, Check these cargo bikes out: Ricksha style

But you are correct, we do not have children and our strategies won't work for many folks.
_________________________
You must be the change you wish to see in the world - MK Gandhi


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#132261 - 05/07/08 09:46 PM Re: Economic survival [Re: jshannon]
Loganenator Offline
Bike guy
Member

Registered: 05/04/07
Posts: 151
Loc: Sacramento, CA, USA
Jshannon,

Your comment reminds me of a comment my grandfather said a while back. Simplicity is always best. I told him my roommate at the time had taken a postdoc job utilizing genetic studies for the human obesity research center at UCLA. My grandfather quickly retorted "I can tell your friend how to cure obesity...just put those folks to work and tell em' not to eat so damn much." wink

And I just noticed I'm not the only one reading that article on $200/barrel oil.

Cheers,
Nemo


_________________________
You must be the change you wish to see in the world - MK Gandhi


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#132266 - 05/07/08 10:19 PM Re: Economic survival [Re: Loganenator]
Todd W Offline
Product Tester
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 11/14/04
Posts: 1928
Loc: Mountains of CA
Nemo - It's hard to get rid of cars (or as you say kick oil) if you have a kid(s) (as someone mentioned) or you need to haul a trailer, or if your recreational activity involves getting away into the mountains, or going to the lake to use a boat, etc.

Did you get rid of your cars/oil to solely save money or to be 'greener'? It sounds like so you can be more 'self reliant' but I wanted to ask outright to be sure.... also, how come a car is not part of being self reliant and/or prepared?

Please don't take this as a personal attack I`m curious smile and, after all we are neighbors smile
_________________________
Self Sufficient Home - Our journey to self sufficiency.

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#132269 - 05/07/08 10:32 PM Re: Economic survival [Re: Todd W]
redflare Offline
Addict

Registered: 12/25/05
Posts: 647
Loc: SF Bay Area, CA
Just to stir this conversation back on track... this book is an investment book, i.e.: "how to be financially well off during hard times"


Edited by redflare (05/07/08 10:32 PM)

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#132281 - 05/07/08 11:27 PM Re: Economic survival [Re: redflare]
Todd W Offline
Product Tester
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 11/14/04
Posts: 1928
Loc: Mountains of CA
Originally Posted By: redflare
Just to stir this conversation back on track... this book is an investment book, i.e.: "how to be financially well off during hard times"


Sorry for taking it more off Track!
_________________________
Self Sufficient Home - Our journey to self sufficiency.

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#132310 - 05/08/08 04:08 AM Re: Economic survival [Re: Todd W]
Loganenator Offline
Bike guy
Member

Registered: 05/04/07
Posts: 151
Loc: Sacramento, CA, USA
My answer to Todd will qualify as investment decisions in hard times I think. This is a very pertinent topic given our current verge of recession and you are correct Redflare this might be more appropriate for a new thread.

Being green is hip right now but honestly the green of money is more what we were concerned with. Unless your vehicle generates income or entertainment (boating/hiking) to outweigh its cost it makes for a very poor investment that depreciates over time even with consistent investment of maintenance money. We also saw that our costs for the car were increasing (with fuel and such) outweighing our "need".
_________________________
You must be the change you wish to see in the world - MK Gandhi


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#132314 - 05/08/08 05:33 AM Re: Economic survival [Re: Loganenator]
Todd W Offline
Product Tester
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 11/14/04
Posts: 1928
Loc: Mountains of CA
Originally Posted By: Nemo
My answer to Todd will qualify as investment decisions in hard times I think. This is a very pertinent topic given our current verge of recession and you are correct Redflare this might be more appropriate for a new thread.

Being green is hip right now but honestly the green of money is more what we were concerned with. Unless your vehicle generates income or entertainment (boating/hiking) to outweigh its cost it makes for a very poor investment that depreciates over time even with consistent investment of maintenance money. We also saw that our costs for the car were increasing (with fuel and such) outweighing our "need".


Interesting decision.

What is your plan for an emergency? Broken bone, maybe a foot or a leg... Wait for an ambulance or a friend to give you a ride? What about if you have to evacuate a bike can have it's positives but not if you have to be gone for a LONG time and need to take a bunch of your belongings? I just can't see how not having a car at all out weighs having one, even if it is old and not used daily.

Investment wise... you are right people do not buy cars to make them money but they can be used to facilitate income generation (getting to work etc.)

Thanks Nemo
-Todd
_________________________
Self Sufficient Home - Our journey to self sufficiency.

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#132335 - 05/08/08 01:26 PM Re: Economic survival [Re: redflare]
jshannon Offline
Addict

Registered: 02/02/03
Posts: 647
Loc: North Texas
7 steps to surviving the rough economy

March 23, 2008

BY TERRY SAVAGE
Yes, the Fed saved the system last week (though not the shareholders of Bear Stearns), but the Fed doesn’t have unlimited power to rescue the economy, which is having a massive deflation in asset values.

So, it’s up to you to get your own personal finances in shape to ride through an economic slowdown and the consequences of economic problems that already exist!

Lower interest rates and tax rebate checks may help the economy a bit.

But rising numbers for foreclosures, bankruptcies, and energy prices will tax consumers’ spending power and limit growth in coming months.

Even worse, all the “liquidity” the Fed has created recently is likely to lead to inflation down the road. And inflation always brings higher interest rates.

So here are seven steps you must take now to ride out uncertain economic times:

1. Understand that the rules have changed. The very first step is to change your “mind-set.” What worked before won’t work now. In the past, debt allowed you to have things today and pay for them tomorrow. Now, debt will bury you. Especially if it is floating rate debt. It’s time to remember that old-fashioned concept of “saving up” to buy a car or for a down payment on a house. “Old-fashioned” is coming back in style!

2. Take an honest look at your finances. Start by making a list of what you owe — and what you own. Write down the interest rate on each borrowing, and the minimum monthly payment. Now compare with your after-tax income. You can’t fix your situation until you look at it honestly. If you need help, contact Consumer Credit Counseling Services at (800) 388-2227.

3. Cut your expenses. It’s tough to cut back on your lifestyle. But little things add up. Check everything from your cell phone plan to your cable service to see where you can save a few dollars. Consider raising the deductibles on your homeowner’s or auto insurance to lower the monthly payments, and free up cash.

Big cutbacks can make a big difference. If you’re living on your own, you might need a roommate. Or move home with your parents and offer to pay rent — which will help them, too! (And as costs continue to rise, adult families might have to offer a room to Grandma, who simply can’t live on Social Security.)

4. Earn more! It’s easier said than done, I know. This is not a suggestion to ask for a raise! But do pay attention to your current job, networking to find opportunities to advance within the company, or to come up with ideas that make you a more valuable employee.

To earn extra cash, try to find a weekend or part-time job that you or another family member could do to earn more money — even temporarily. Put all of your hours to productive use.

5. Deal with your debt. In spite of the Fed’s action, rates on credit cards may be slow to drop, so pay extra to lower your balances. Take advantage of the current decline to refinance your mortgage or home equity loan and lock in current low rates. You can always refinance again if rates drop further. But if inflation comes, you won’t get that chance.

6. Keep investing. The stock market is scary, and so is the economy. But if you’re investing for a retirement that is years ahead, the stock market is your best opportunity to do that on a tax-deferred basis. So keep contributing to your company retirement plan or IRA. Make sure your assets are well-diversified in funds within the plan. And if you’re close to retirement, move some money to the short-term bond or money market fund option.

7. Stay optimistic. Bad news makes headlines. But we’ve gotten through tough times before. In the early 1980s, we had double-digit inflation, double-digit interest rates and double-digit unemployment in many parts of the country. At that time, few were predicting the incredible growth of technology that boosted our economy and stock market.

Who knows what the future will bring? Maybe nano-technology will be the catalyst for the next round of growth. History reminds us that America has always gotten through tough times and moved forward. And that’s The Savage Truth!

Terry Savage is a registered investment adviser.



Edited by jshannon (05/08/08 01:26 PM)

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#132339 - 05/08/08 04:25 PM Re: Economic survival [Re: Todd W]
Loganenator Offline
Bike guy
Member

Registered: 05/04/07
Posts: 151
Loc: Sacramento, CA, USA
Hey Todd,

Good points about injuries. Honestly, economics of health care didn't come to our minds first and foremost when making the decision to sell the car and it should be calculated into Redflare's plans to invest in the future.

First and foremost it will be an ambulance if a situation is life threatening but we have been looking for a used utility bike big enough to carry a person or a "complete/long term" bug out. Unfortunately, I think we are going to have to buy it new...anyone who owns one seems to know its value economically, especially in the current energy situation.

We have 3 general hospitals and a university medical center within a 2 mile radius of our home so hopefully we could get to an ER without a car or ambulance if the serious injury is non-life threatening. We also have plans to update and take more advanced first aid courses. We have the basics but we need more training for greater independence. Bugging out by car in a mass evacuation from an urban area seemed to us to most likely be as slow or slower than by bike.

This only really makes sense for an urban area. The benefits may not justify the risk in rural/suburban areas. Just some thoughts.

Here is an example of a bike that would work (although 600 lbs carry capacity seems a little much): http://www.catoregon.org/hpm/trihauler.htm

P.s. Maybe we should move to Canada for the healthcare. The thought has crossed our minds. We'd hate to jump ship but...Canada has universal healthcare, larger fossil fuel reserves, growing wheat yields etc...I wonder if Canadians think the same way with the cliche of fences and green grass wink.


_________________________
You must be the change you wish to see in the world - MK Gandhi


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#132341 - 05/08/08 04:39 PM Re: Economic survival [Re: Loganenator]
Loganenator Offline
Bike guy
Member

Registered: 05/04/07
Posts: 151
Loc: Sacramento, CA, USA
Redflare,

One strategy for investing that my wife and I are currently using is balancing our liquid and our tangible assets. For example balancing the need to save cash for the future with investing in tangible necessities like water, food, shelter, land, transportation and tools. With our awareness that banks can close and corporations can go under and inflation pressures can suddenly make our cash worthless we just can not justify putting all of our resources into the "semi-liquid" assets of CD's, stocks or even gold for that matter.

Good luck on your decisions. Reading well researched books from multiple viewpoints is always good. I would balance the book you want to read with a well regarded traditional investing guide and weigh the good points you see in both.

Cheers,
Nemo.

P.s. Hey I just noticed my post count! I am now officially a member!
_________________________
You must be the change you wish to see in the world - MK Gandhi


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#132349 - 05/08/08 05:03 PM Re: Economic survival [Re: Loganenator]
Todd W Offline
Product Tester
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 11/14/04
Posts: 1928
Loc: Mountains of CA
Nemo - Funny you mention Canada I just had that discussion with a friend the other day! Also, that bike you linked to does look very useful in your situation smile

PS: Congrats on becoming a member.

-Todd
_________________________
Self Sufficient Home - Our journey to self sufficiency.

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#132351 - 05/08/08 05:13 PM Re: Economic survival [Re: jshannon]
KG2V Offline

Veteran

Registered: 08/19/03
Posts: 1371
Loc: Queens, New York City
7 steps to surviving the rough economy

snip
1. Understand that the rules have changed. The very first step is to change your “mind-set.” What worked before won’t work now. In the past, debt allowed you to have things today and pay for them tomorrow. ...snip...
My mind set never LEFT this pattern, so how have things changed? Don't buy what you can't afford


2. Take an honest look at your finances. Start by making a list of what you owe — and what you own. ...snip...

I owe - 5 more months on my truck at 0.0% - Thank you - I'll use THEIR money for the rest of the 5 months - and my fixed rate 6% Mortgage - from 2001 - and I put down about 35% on the house


3. Cut your expenses....snip.. Yep - done that, there are still place to cut, but I do like my daughter taking Dance, and my son playing soccer. Next Month, FIOS comes to my block, and I can save $20/month by making the change, so I will

4. Earn more! It’s easier said than done, I know... I've been pulling in side work for years

5. Deal with your debt. In spite of the Fed’s action, rates on credit cards may be slow to drop, so pay extra to lower your balances. ...snip... No balances - I've always treated a "credit card" as a "charge card" - Full balance gets paid on the 1st of the month - remember what I said about NOT buying what you can't afford?

6. Keep investing. ...Maxed out on my company IRA - wish I could afford to invest more, but...

7. Stay optimistic. ...snip..

Actually, I don't think times are that bad - if you look at historic unemployment levels they are actually quite low, yes, we are having some nasty for recent term memory inflation on fuel and food, but even those, by historic standards aren't so bad

It's just that we've become a "Gimmie Gimme - NOW" culture. I took my parents stories of the Depression to heart as a kid. I remember the 70s - When we get to double digit inflation AND double digit unemployment, at the same time - wake me up
_________________________
73 de KG2V
You are what you do when it counts - The Masso
Homepage: http://www.thegallos.com
Blog: http://kg2v.blogspot.com

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#132386 - 05/09/08 01:15 AM Re: Economic survival [Re: Loganenator]
MoBOB Offline
Veteran

Registered: 09/17/07
Posts: 1219
Loc: here
Originally Posted By: Nemo


Hey MoBoB, Check these cargo bikes out: Ricksha style



Pretty slick....
_________________________
"Its not a matter of being ready as it is being prepared" -- B. E. J. Taylor

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#132387 - 05/09/08 02:24 AM Re: Economic survival [Re: MoBOB]
BlueSky Offline
Newbie

Registered: 05/08/08
Posts: 36
Loc: DFW TX
As far as investing, I'm still not sure how things are going to play out. I'm looking at it in terms of inflation vs. deflation, and neither one looks like the definitive outcome, given what the fed may or may not do. In the longer term, I would be surprised if we didn't end up with 70's style stagflation.

Given that, we've done the things listed above to reduce debt, lower expenses, etc. It has really helped me mentally to deal with the uncertainty.

But I am confident that in the intermediate to long term that oil and natural gas will be relatively expensive. Based on that, I've moved some money toward energy services companies and natural gas exploration companies. As long as the prices remain relatively high, someone's going to pay to try to find it and get it out of the ground. Refiners are going to have a tougher time, as refining margins will continue to get squeezed. Integrated Internationals (e.g. Exxon, Shell, BP) are going to have a hard time since so much of the oil/gas is controlled by national oil companies. I see their market share as steadily declining over time.

I see energy services as a hedge. If I'm wrong and oil prices plummet, I still win, because everything else will likely be doing well (I don't see a major crash causing lower prices, as oil is just too important).


I've followed the strategy of diversified mutual funds for many years, and until recently, I was pretty sold on it. Right now, I really think things are changing, and I'm not so confident that it offers the risk-return tradeoff that matches the things that are going on in the credit and commodity markets.

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#132388 - 05/09/08 02:29 AM Re: Economic survival [Re: BlueSky]
BlueSky Offline
Newbie

Registered: 05/08/08
Posts: 36
Loc: DFW TX
Back to the OP, there's an interview with the author here:
http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2006/Leeb.html

It's 2 years old, might be interesting to hear in retrospect.

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#132404 - 05/09/08 04:39 AM Re: Economic survival [Re: BlueSky]
Loganenator Offline
Bike guy
Member

Registered: 05/04/07
Posts: 151
Loc: Sacramento, CA, USA
Thanks Bluesky for keeping us on target. After listening to the interview I felt a little squeamish over his advice. One reason I think food and energy prices have risen so steeply is due to investor speculation of food and energy commodities. The author's predictions are right on the money regarding the urgency of the energy problem but his investment advice smells funny to me. Something just feels wrong to bet on the downfall of others. I guess he justifies it by saying things like: the country will bounce back in a decade or so but its going to be really bad during transition that time.

Just my impressions, maybe I'm just young, naive and idealistic. Guess I'm starting to sound like an academic again eh? wink

~L
_________________________
You must be the change you wish to see in the world - MK Gandhi


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#132406 - 05/09/08 04:48 AM Re: Economic survival [Re: BlueSky]
MoBOB Offline
Veteran

Registered: 09/17/07
Posts: 1219
Loc: here
IMHO and totally unqualified opinion, maybe take a look at companies that are involved with battery/power supply technology. Just something I heard a bunch of years ago. It seems to have been true.

Disclaimer: I am not a stock broker or technology company owner anything like that.
_________________________
"Its not a matter of being ready as it is being prepared" -- B. E. J. Taylor

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