Equipped To Survive Equipped To Survive® Presents
The Survival Forum
Where do you want to go on ETS?

Page 1 of 4 1 2 3 4 >
Topic Options
#127437 - 03/15/08 11:21 PM Hereís the scenario
raydarkhorse Offline
Addict

Registered: 01/27/07
Posts: 510
Loc: on the road 10-11 months out o...
This thread is going to ask what do you think would happen. I am not asking if you think the scenario is impossible or inevitable, and this question is not to debate; who is at fault for any present problems real or perceived. Iím looking for purely social response from your points of view and geographical areas, not a government response based on the scenario. Iím not going to even put forth my ideas yet because Iím interested what every one else has to say.

Hereís the scenario, tomorrow you wake up to find that we have had another black Monday. The stock market has crashed, and when you go to the bank just like in 1929 they limit the amount of cash you can withdraw. The economy goes to crap, and unemployment doubles over night. Given the differences in todayís technology, morality and ethics (for lack of a better terms) what do you think would happen?
_________________________
Depend on yourself, help those who are not able, and teach those that are.

Top
#127438 - 03/15/08 11:29 PM Re: Hereís the scenario [Re: raydarkhorse]
dweste Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 02/16/08
Posts: 2463
Loc: Central California
Democratic president. Crime goes up. Gun sales boom [!] Bankruptcy courts overwhelmed. Commodiity prices first soar, then tank. Self-reliance comes back into fashion.

Top
#127458 - 03/16/08 02:47 AM Re: Hereís the scenario [Re: raydarkhorse]
wildman800 Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/09/06
Posts: 2847
Loc: La-USA
Originally Posted By: raydarkhorse
Here’s the scenario, tomorrow you wake up to find that we have had another black Monday. The stock market has crashed, and when you go to the bank just like in 1929 they limit the amount of cash you can withdraw. The economy goes to crap, and unemployment doubles over night. Given the differences in today’s technology, morality and ethics (for lack of a better terms) what do you think would happen?


1) The "Great Depression" featured money that had worth/value but no one had any. The "Great Depression II" will feature worthless money that people have quite a bit of. U.S. Money will become "very expensive, rather rough, toilet paper".

2) People who are aware of what's coming, and can afford to, have or are moving out of the cities and into the countryside.

They are buying (in cash by those who can) places with enough acreage that can support large gardens, a few cattle or goats, and some fuel for wood burning stoves.

Others (like myself) are making arrangements to get out of the city and into the countryside. Those such as myself are paying off as much debt as possible as quickly as we possibly can.

3) We are ALL going to find that the preparations that we have made are going to be needed AND used during the times ahead. This will be especially true of our food stores.

4) I expect the "Big Brother" factor to greatly increase as the crime rate increases.

5) I also expect that "food rationing" MAY become a reality as more acreage is tied up in FUEL production instead of FOOD production.

6) Revolution (Civil War II) MAY be in the air as a much larger segment of the population grows hungry and resentful.

7) Eventually, the American Public will welcome the advantages of the North American Union and with that, the AMERO to replace the worthless Dollar.

8) Strict control of people's movements will be instituted as recovery efforts are being instituted since since some places are threatened to be overloaded with the needy.

I am really trying hard to answer the original question and NOT get political. I am afraid that the two are intertwined and not able to be completely separable.

I sincerely apologize if this violates the rules and would accept removal of this post by the moderators if they deem it has gone over the line.
_________________________
QMC, USCG (Ret)
The best luck is what you make yourself!

Top
#127469 - 03/16/08 03:44 AM Re: Hereís the scenario [Re: wildman800]
Hacksaw
Unregistered


I wonder if that means the border will be locked down or if our super Canadian tourist dollars will be welcome.

Top
#127474 - 03/16/08 04:19 AM Re: Hereís the scenario [Re: wildman800]
Paul810 Offline
Veteran

Registered: 03/02/03
Posts: 1428
Loc: NJ, USA
While the cirumstances are slightly different, I see a lot of similarities to the Russian collapse of 1998, which offers good insight into what might happen here. There's a pretty good article here about it here:

http://www.fas.org/news/russia/2000/russia/part08.htm


In very basic terms, the stock market crashed and money lost most of its value within a short amount of time. Banking basically collapsed, and therefore Banks and ATM machines were shut down. People lost huge amounts of money and nothing could be bought on credit, both for individuals and for businesses.

From that, shortages of meat, cooking oil, flour, butter, sugar, rice, and milk caused a lot of stores to close. Cost for goods, especially foreign goods, went through the roof. Stores that did stay open had long lines and closed often to figure out what to charge for the goods they could sell. Those in the city hit hardest with the food shortage, as they couldn't grow really any of their own food. Families with children or elderly to support also hit very hard.

People that still had jobs were paid in whatever the company could spare, instead of money. Shortages of medicine and medical care became common (also became very expensive). Alcoholism, drug use, and crime skyrocket. Abortion rate goes up, school drop-out rate goes up, percentage of those with sexually transmitted diseases, like HIV, increase. Basically, a big mess for quite a long time.

It might not happen the exact same way in America, but I see a lot of similarities. The stock market is down, money is losing a lot of its value, the price of goods and medicine is way up, ect. It's like almost the same thing that happened in Russia is happening here, just not as fast. All we're waiting on is for banking to collapse, and if that happens I bet it will speed things right along.

Top
#127492 - 03/16/08 04:38 PM Re: Hereís the scenario [Re: Paul810]
wildman800 Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/09/06
Posts: 2847
Loc: La-USA
When the Russians switched over from chits to Rubles, Citizens had 3 days to convert their chits into Rubles and were limited in how much ($500 worth) they could convert per day. After 3 days, many, many people were left holding onto rather expensive "toilet paper".

Many former Russian government officials have been and are still consultants on some very interesting subjects within this country. One area of which I speak has to do with Internal Security.
_________________________
QMC, USCG (Ret)
The best luck is what you make yourself!

Top
#127500 - 03/16/08 07:00 PM Re: Hereís the scenario [Re: raydarkhorse]
NIM Offline
Member

Registered: 02/12/03
Posts: 128
My guess:

Day 1 -No change, except for a little bit of talk show/radio story. Financial consultants are hard to reach (unless you have a good quality spatula).

Day 2 -Ditto. A light undercurrent of panic. Nervous laughter but little else.

Day 3 -People's dim senses begin to realize that something has happened. Their food supplies are very low (didn't ration) and they can't but much more. Those wearing Hoffman Lenses are completing the last details of their evacuation plans.

Day 4 -Panic surfaces in the cities. Riots start at grocery stories (few riots at first, centered on food storage)

Day 7-10 Riots now common (spillover into tech goods and personal property). Martial Law declared. Military rolls into a few cities and makes better use of the active denial systems. Curfew imposed. Birthday parties canceled.

Week 2 People adjust to new situation and economy (if there is one) is stabilizing. Government ration lines and check points start (to deter lootings etc). People on the red list don't make it through either. GVT rations are used up within the week (AND it was hard to get them)

Week 3 Propaganda is on the airways 100%. Mandatory repayment of debts is instituted (by 'work' camps). If it gets really bad they won't even bother with repayment they'll just use the military trucks/trains to round people up into Fema camps. "We are the XXXX Military. We are here to help. Food and water are available in the camps. Violation of camp rules will not be tolerated..."

Week 4 Strange Ash settles downwind of the camp's chimneys. Chicken substitute becomes plentiful and pollution is on the decline.


<Kidding>
I would be stunned if the economy lurched to a stop. The powers that be will avoid that as money is the system of control. If they lose money as a control system they will switch to food/water (and they don't have much of either to use it as a carrot for long).

If the economy does slow down substantially I don't feel that the population will be able to shake their conditioning. I think the PHRASECENSOREDPOSTERSHOULDKNOWBETTER. will remain passive and calm while waiting for someone else to save them (The UN?). Calm is relative though as Race issues may come up.
If the economy does stall I also suspect that war will break out to distract the citizens and redirect their emotional flux. Those who are prepared will have the ultimate test of their characters and ethics (who do you save? how much can you help/instruct without letting everyone know you're a preparedness type? etc). My recommendation: Serve the greater good and go down fighting. The flesh suit only last so long anyway and good deeds ripple out forever. -Sorry for the tangent!

-NIM

P.S.
I also suspect that the power will always flow to GWEN, HAARP and the cellphone towers.

"Sleep...Sleep....Sleep...."


Top
#127535 - 03/17/08 03:32 AM Re: Hereís the scenario [Re: NIM]
Alex Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 03/01/07
Posts: 1034
Loc: -

Top
#127549 - 03/17/08 12:48 PM Re: Hereís the scenario [Re: Alex]
Dan_McI Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 12/10/07
Posts: 844
Loc: NYC
The one thing that will happen is inflation. While the price of oil has been going up, much of the recent rise is the lowering of the value of the dollar. A lot of that has been because the Federal Reserve is lowering it's value due to the credit crunch. Higher inflation is soon going to be a fact.

The one good thing about that is that people will nto want to hold money, so they will seek to spend it. If we have inflation, a dollar loses value over time, so spending it is the solution. You also may have no choice but to spend more, because things cost more. So, we will not have a repeat of the deflationary 1920s-30s, when holding your money was a good idea, because no one had any.

Top
#127551 - 03/17/08 01:06 PM Re: Hereís the scenario [Re: Dan_McI]
benjammin Offline
Rapscallion
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 02/06/04
Posts: 4020
Loc: Anchorage AK
I don't suspect much at all will change for the average Joe. Given how low unemployment rates are, doubling them won't effect that many more. Things will get a lot more expensive, but anyone who can't afford it will just live on credit for a while. The govt will then pass another ridiculous law that bails them out just like the idiots who couldn't afford their ARM payments when their rates went up 1 or 2 points. The end result will be that foreigners will end up owning a bigger piece of the american pie as our debt to other nations increases. In the end, no one can afford for the US economy to tank so bad that it collapses, so although we may end up with heavy inflation for an extended period, it will only be to match what most other nations in the world are already at.

Looks like it is getting time to think about buying a bicycle again.
_________________________
The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly is to fill the world with fools.
-- Herbert Spencer, English Philosopher (1820-1903)

Top
#127553 - 03/17/08 01:21 PM Re: Hereís the scenario [Re: benjammin]
Dan_McI Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 12/10/07
Posts: 844
Loc: NYC
Originally Posted By: benjammin
Looks like it is getting time to think about buying a bicycle again.


A bike is a good idea, to save money on expensive oil and get exercise.

To invest, think about Gold, gold shares, real property anything that is a real asset. Some gold, some actual coins, a few are never a bad idea to have. It's like an insurance policy.

Some stocks may be fine, but you'll need to be pick them wisely.

I bought a house, but probably a year too soon.

Top
#127565 - 03/17/08 03:35 PM Re: Hereís the scenario [Re: Dan_McI]
BobS Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 02/08/08
Posts: 924
Loc: Toledo Ohio
I think most people would sit and wait for the government to fix it and rescue them. They would want the government to do another New Deal to save us. This will not work any more then it did last time. The new deal did not pull us out of the depression, Hitler and WWII did.

Hopefully most of us here are somewhat better prepared for a collapse if it happens then most of the populist.


I never bought into the idea of gold investing as any value if our whole economy tanks. You canít eat gold, you canít heat your home with it. I donít see it having much trade value with others. Food and useful supplies are good trade items. When things go south, how would one go about trading or bartering with gold? A few ounces of gold, is not worth as much as $15.00 worth of ravioli or other can goods to a person with a hungry family. Who knows, I may be wrong, but I donít think so.
_________________________



You can run, but you'll only die tired.


Top
#127568 - 03/17/08 04:07 PM Re: Hereís the scenario [Re: BobS]
Dan_McI Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 12/10/07
Posts: 844
Loc: NYC
Originally Posted By: BobS
I never bought into the idea of gold investing as any value if our whole economy tanks. You canít eat gold, you canít heat your home with it. I donít see it having much trade value with others. Food and useful supplies are good trade items. When things go south, how would one go about trading or bartering with gold? A few ounces of gold, is not worth as much as $15.00 worth of ravioli or other can goods to a person with a hungry family. Who knows, I may be wrong, but I donít think so.


Should gold be of little value and trading food as you describe is something that's done, and this occurs solely because the economy has failed, then the economy will have really failed totally.

I hope I never see such days.

So long as there is an ecomony, and we still use dollars, I think gold will have value.


Edited by Dan_McI (03/17/08 04:19 PM)

Top
#127569 - 03/17/08 04:07 PM Re: Hereís the scenario [Re: BobS]
benjammin Offline
Rapscallion
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 02/06/04
Posts: 4020
Loc: Anchorage AK
I don't believe the scenario entails a total collapse, but more a rather aggressive inflationary spike, followed by a relative shortage of regular commodities. Most certainly not a catastrophic event that would reduce society to such anarchy that the supply system would have collapsed.

Under such a limited pretext, I would think gold to be a superior tender to state currency or bulk commodities like food. There may be some localized needs that would warrant a bartering system, but by and large, the infrastructure of the country is going to remain intact, it will just get very expensive to transact, and a more stable and universal tender could put a person at an advantage, depending on the scale of their acquisitions and their logistics. This is based on the premise of the scenario under discussion. If it foments into something more egregious, then certainly things such as food, fuel and ammunition become a much more desirable exchange media, but widespread breakdown of regulatory control would pre-empt such activity on anything but a very localized occurence.

If I see mobs looting the stores and gas stations aflame, I'll have already traded my gold off for another heavy metal, cast lead in copper jackets, heh heh heh.
_________________________
The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly is to fill the world with fools.
-- Herbert Spencer, English Philosopher (1820-1903)

Top
#127574 - 03/17/08 04:58 PM Re: Hereís the scenario [Re: raydarkhorse]
Blast Offline
INTERCEPTOR
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 07/15/02
Posts: 3760
Loc: TX
Y'all might want to read this thread about surviving Argentina's hyper-inflation. It's long, but with many useful nuggets.

-Blast
_________________________
Foraging Texas
Medicine Man Plant Co.
DrMerriwether on YouTube
Radio Call Sign: KI5BOG
*As an Amazon Influencer, I may earn a sales commission on Amazon links in my posts.

Top
#127594 - 03/17/08 07:01 PM Re: Hereís the scenario [Re: raydarkhorse]
raydarkhorse Offline
Addict

Registered: 01/27/07
Posts: 510
Loc: on the road 10-11 months out o...
I see a lot of good answers about possible governmental responses, and personal reactions. I'm really looking for how is how your neighborhoods, local communities, and towns would respond based on you knowledge of the areas and people around you. Basically would the people in your local area come together to help one another as needed, would it be every man for himself or a little of both.
For me personally I'm at home unemployed and would like to say that the area that I'm in would come together but it won't. Over the years I have tried to talk to my neighbors and the only ones that will do more than say hi is the young girl next door, who will talk but is afraid some one will tell her jealous husband. Also the man across the street but he stays pickled and doesnít make much sense most of the time. We have a lot of young men 20-40) that live with their moms and dads and refuse to look for full time work but most will do odd jobs here and there. Our trouble area is not very far away less than 2 miles and I have noticed in the last two months a very large increased police presence. Given the scenario I put forward I believe the area will basically go to blazes in fairy short order. We also live less than20 miles from one of the most violent cities in the country, and Iím afraid that the violence would only increase and spread in fairly short order without government intervention.
_________________________
Depend on yourself, help those who are not able, and teach those that are.

Top
#127598 - 03/17/08 07:20 PM Re: Hereís the scenario [Re: Dan_McI]
BobS Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 02/08/08
Posts: 924
Loc: Toledo Ohio
Originally Posted By: Dan_McI
Originally Posted By: BobS
I never bought into the idea of gold investing as any value if our whole economy tanks. You canít eat gold, you canít heat your home with it. I donít see it having much trade value with others. Food and useful supplies are good trade items. When things go south, how would one go about trading or bartering with gold? A few ounces of gold, is not worth as much as $15.00 worth of ravioli or other can goods to a person with a hungry family. Who knows, I may be wrong, but I donít think so.


Should gold be of little value and trading food as you describe is something that's done, and this occurs solely because the economy has failed, then the economy will have really failed totally.

I hope I never see such days.

So long as there is an ecomony, and we still use dollars, I think gold will have value.




Gold is valuable only as long as people believe it is. How would you trade with it in a situation like Katrina if it went on for any time.

Lets say you had 1-oz of it. I donít see a way to trade with a $1000.00 bill (Gold is going for about that right now) for food or supplies. Also how does the other person know itís real or pure or for that matter even worth what you say it is? They donít.

Food, a Coleman stove & fuel, shampoo, toilet paper, and hundreds of other item would be a better thing to barter with then gold.

I think with gold you would have to trade it at a substantial loss in a barter system. If you are hungry and so is your wife & kids, you will trade that $1000.00 piece of metal for $100.00 in food and a few supplies. Why not just buy the food now and save the $900.00 loss?

Most of us here prepare ahead of time, but most people donít and to a hungry cold wet person that has no place to go and a family, food, a stove & fuel and a tent and a few blankets would be worth itís weight in GoldÖ




Edited by BobS (03/17/08 07:21 PM)
_________________________



You can run, but you'll only die tired.


Top
#127604 - 03/17/08 08:12 PM Re: Hereís the scenario [Re: raydarkhorse]
Blast Offline
INTERCEPTOR
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 07/15/02
Posts: 3760
Loc: TX
Quote:
I'm really looking for how is how your neighborhoods, local communities, and towns would respond based on you knowledge of the areas and people around you.


If Houston's evacuation before Hurricane Rita was any indication, our neighborhood will band together to help each other out. A lot of neighbors have started putting in gardens and most hunt & fish. In the past one neighbor or another has ended up with some sort of major injury/illness and the rest of us help them out with cooking/lawncare/babysitting or whatever is needed. The skill sets and resources available in our brains and garages bode well for surviving tough times. It won't be fun and often it'll probably be very scary and stressful, but I can't think of a better place to be as far as neighbors are concerned.

I think our main worry will be outsiders causing problems. We have a troubled neighborhood behind us, and the bulk of Houston 15 miles down the freeway...

-Blast
_________________________
Foraging Texas
Medicine Man Plant Co.
DrMerriwether on YouTube
Radio Call Sign: KI5BOG
*As an Amazon Influencer, I may earn a sales commission on Amazon links in my posts.

Top
#127609 - 03/17/08 09:20 PM Re: Hereís the scenario [Re: Blast]
Dan_McI Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 12/10/07
Posts: 844
Loc: NYC
My neighborhood, I think event within the past decade have shown that New York City can be quite well-behaved over the short term. In the black out of 2003, New Yorkers took to the bars, drank beer and had a good time. Crime was lower than on most nights. Much better than during the 1977 blackout, which was awful. If the 2003 version of New York shows up, it will initially not be so bad. If New Yorkers revert to the form of 1977, lead projectiles would be very nice to have.

I hope I really never see a time when I am reduced to bartering. If our economy is reduced to barter, we are really in deep doodoo. I also do not think I will ever see a day when gold has no value. It seems to have have always had value, no matter how far back into history one looks. While under some circumstances gold may be hard to trade, $1000 of food is hard to carry. I don't see us living in a barter economy, and I don't see me being able to carry that much food. So long as we have a market economy, I think I'll be able to trade gold. if i need to leave an immediate area, I can carry an ounce of gold or silver. YMMV, make your choices based on your circumstances.

Top
#127610 - 03/17/08 09:21 PM Re: Hereís the scenario [Re: Blast]
Paul810 Offline
Veteran

Registered: 03/02/03
Posts: 1428
Loc: NJ, USA
As far as the gold thing goes, it's good to diversify what you have. Definitely have food, goods, and tools stockpiled, but also buy some gold and silver, foreign currency, and other tangible assets when you have the spare cash to do so. It may or may not help, but all it needs to do is save you or your family once to be worth it. When preparing for the unknown, anything could wind up coming in handy. You just never know.

On a side note with gold: You don't have to buy it in only one ounce gold coins. There are plenty of smaller denominations. You can buy uncirculated U.S. Gold Eagles in 1/10th, 1/4, and 1/2 ounce sizes. You can also buy gold in jewelry, which you can wear and therefore always have on you, but also consider it as a possible bartering tool if the need ever arises.

Again, you don't have to put a ton of money into gold, but a few bucks here and there adds up over time. Years ago I started collecting coins and currency. Every year, if I had some spare cash, I'd pick up some coins or currency that I liked. I'd also get some as gifts from people that knew I liked coins, or forein currency from people that went on vacations to various places and had some left over. I don't know exactly how much I have right now, but I know between my collection and jewelry it's plenty for an emergency. Plus, if I have to bug out at least I know I have some form of money that I can grab and go. Instead of hoping I can find a working ATM somewhere.

Top
#127617 - 03/17/08 10:34 PM Re: Hereís the scenario [Re: Dan_McI]
raydarkhorse Offline
Addict

Registered: 01/27/07
Posts: 510
Loc: on the road 10-11 months out o...
In the short term I believe a lot of communities will probably come together for a few days, but much past a week I believe things around here will drop into a deep deep pile of bad smelling stuff.
_________________________
Depend on yourself, help those who are not able, and teach those that are.

Top
#127642 - 03/18/08 02:10 AM Re: Hereís the scenario [Re: raydarkhorse]
MartinFocazio Offline

Pooh-Bah

Registered: 01/21/03
Posts: 2203
Loc: Bucks County PA
It's already happening. Right now. Today.

We've already had massive plummets in the market, and if you made less than 6.3% in interest on your cash, you're losing money.

The "run on the bank" of 2008 is the collapse of the mortgage-backed securities scam, and with it, the topping of major financial institutions.

Let me put this in perspective for you.

If you worked at Bear Sterns for a while, maybe 10 years, let's say you had accumulated, oh, say, 5,000 shares of company stock in your 401(k). One year ago today, that would mean your retirement fund was worth (before tax), $735,600. This evening, it's worth $10,000.

If you haven't see it already, have a look at this map of foreclosures by state:
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/02/foreclosure_hea.html

There's no need to worry about a "run on the bank" because hardly anyone has any money there! For a while, th US Savings rate was NEGATIVE 2%.

It's about 0% now:
http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0802/p02s01-usec.html

25% of Americans have no savings AT ALL:
http://money.cnn.com/2007/04/10/pf/retir...7041108?cnn=yes

Give the speed of news and information, is it likely we'll have a full-on panic? No, I think not. However, I do think that basic lifestyle matters are going to change, permanently, and that is going to be unpleasant for many of us.

Let me give you a perspective on the types of changes that I mean.

The first change is going to be in living arrangements. Watch for more bankrupt kids moving back in with family, and watch for those Mc Mansions turning into multi-family dwellings. What do you need more, a "media room" or another bedroom when 4 people move in?

The second change is the definition of "mandatory" spending.
Sure, there's the easy list -

Cable or Sat TV, magazine Subscriptions, Movies, Junk Food - those are not really that big a deal.

Let's look at what we call "haftas" and think about what a lifestyle change is really about.

Pick one: Housing or Health Insurance. http://www.ama-assn.org/amednews/2007/07/16/gvca0716.htm
18.3% of Americans have none. That number WILL rise.

Pick One: Food or Fuel
Food: http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/2008/03/07/the-growing-food-cost-crisis.html
According to the Department of Agriculture, grocery prices are rising at rates not seen since 1990. On the wholesale market, the country's biggest commodity cropsócorn, wheat, and soybeansóare selling at record highs; wheat prices are up nearly 50 percent since the first of the year.

Fuel:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23550921/
"8:36 p.m. ET, Sun., March. 9, 2008
NEW YORK - U.S. average retail gasoline prices have reached a new high of almost $3.20 per gallon and will likely jump another 20 to 30 cents in the next month, worsening the pain of consumers struggling to make ends meet in an economic downturn"


An economic collapse does not happen one morning when stocks plummet - its more like a giant moonbounce deflating. You see it going, but you can still bounce around for a while.

Also remember that this time, with instant global communications, the possibilities for a "softer" landing might be there.

I know you might not want to think about it, but we speak English here, just like in India, and last I heard, some hugely successful companies like Tata in India are hiring Americans.
http://www.boston.com/news/world/asia/ar...fshoring_twist/

Folks, this stuff happens. Leaders change, times change, an economies ebb and flow. Keep sane, be frugal, and live lean and you'll be just fine.

But if you haven't canceled your cable TV yet...I'd say do it now, and use the money you saved to buy something that you might actually NEED one day.









Top
#127661 - 03/18/08 12:22 PM Re: Hereís the scenario [Re: MartinFocazio]
thseng Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 03/24/06
Posts: 900
Loc: NW NJ
Originally Posted By: martinfocazio
Folks, this stuff happens. Leaders change, times change, an economies ebb and flow. Keep sane, be frugal, and live lean and you'll be just fine.

I'd say that about sums it up.
_________________________
- Tom S.

"Never trust and engineer who doesn't carry a pocketknife."

Top
#127662 - 03/18/08 12:55 PM Re: Hereís the scenario [Re: MartinFocazio]
raydarkhorse Offline
Addict

Registered: 01/27/07
Posts: 510
Loc: on the road 10-11 months out o...
Originally Posted By: martinfocazio


An economic collapse does not happen one morning when stocks plummet - its more like a giant moonbounce deflating. You see it going, but you can still bounce around for a while.


No they don't happen over night, even the 29 crash didn't happen over night. There were warnings just as there are now, and just like now there are a huge amount of people who said it can't happen. I'm not trying to say it is going to happen this thread was just to get the brain juices flowing.
_________________________
Depend on yourself, help those who are not able, and teach those that are.

Top
#127663 - 03/18/08 12:55 PM Re: Hereís the scenario [Re: thseng]
benjammin Offline
Rapscallion
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 02/06/04
Posts: 4020
Loc: Anchorage AK
One of the few positives about my career choice is it's portability and global demand. I can and have gone anywhere in the world and for a premium been able to make more money than I could domestically, while also building my earning potential when I am home. It came with sacrifices, but the bottom line is if our economy goes to heck, I could be on a plane in two weeks to Abu Dhabi and probably double my current income, or head back to Australia and make what I am now in Aussie currency, or wherever major construction activity is going on. Chance favors the prepared mind.

Sure, if the economy tanks bad enough here at home the repercussions are global, but if you have the ability to take advantage of a mobile sort of career, then you can at least capitalize on whatever opportunities are still out there, and there will always be something, unless the whole world goes wonky.

Even within the states, though, there's still going to be plenty of opportunity. Municipal bonds don't feel the same effects as private sector funding programs until things really go to heck. Utilities and infrastructure must be maintained, regardless of what the economy does, or else civilization breaks down really quickly, and there is zero tolerance for that here (the feds would default their overseas investments before they'd let an administration fail like that).

As for the neighborhood/community response, I try to live in locations where the people around me are at least capable of taking care of their own responsibilities. I find communities where the residents will likely have the resources they will need to get by with under duress, and where if I had to re-equip myself it would not be too difficult an undertaking. Most likely there will be a handful of people in our little development that will be lacking, but will have other resources that might be worth something of trade. I would say about 6 weeks would be the absolute limit for my neighborhood before most would run out of essentials and have to seek assistance outside our walls.
_________________________
The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly is to fill the world with fools.
-- Herbert Spencer, English Philosopher (1820-1903)

Top
#127676 - 03/18/08 03:52 PM Re: Hereís the scenario [Re: benjammin]
MartinFocazio Offline

Pooh-Bah

Registered: 01/21/03
Posts: 2203
Loc: Bucks County PA
Speaking of "transportable skills" - there's a different, less altruistic motivation to my continued role as a volunteer firefighter - and that's the never-ending supply of free training to whatever level I want for medical, hazmat, rescue, firefighting, NIMS & Incident Command - whatever training I can make the time for, I can get, for free.

While I don't necessarily WANT to be a paramedic or registered nurse, I also know that I could - quickly - train up to those levels from where I am now and immediately find gainful employment in those areas. The pay isn't the same as the work I do now, however, it's a skill set that does not really tie to any one geography.

Top
#127694 - 03/18/08 07:10 PM Re: Hereís the scenario [Re: MartinFocazio]
Johno Offline
Enthusiast

Registered: 01/05/03
Posts: 214
Loc: Scotland
They will make a reality TV show about it.
_________________________
Follow the Sapper

Top
#127857 - 03/20/08 06:09 AM Re: Hereís the scenario [Re: raydarkhorse]
Susan Offline
Geezer

Registered: 01/21/04
Posts: 5163
Loc: W. WA
* The population of the U.S. in 1930 was 123,202,624.
* The population today is 303,669,478.

* There were a lot of farmers then (approx. 7 million), and they were all over, and they grew many crops as a hedge against something wiping out one or two of them.
* There are about a half-million family farms left today; most of the mega farms that supply our food are single-crop farms, and those single crops can extend for many miles. What does your area grow?

* The concept of the government solving their problems was fairly foreign to them.
*Today, the vast majority of Americans expect their governments (federal, state, county, city) to solve their problems.

* More than 15 million people, a quarter of the nationís workforce, were unemployed.
* Extrapolating that to this point in time, we would be talking about 75 million people out of work.

* 2.25 million boys and girls ages 10Ė18 worked in factories, canneries, mines, and on farms.
* BAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

* It was second nature for neighbors to help each other.
* Most people today probably don't recognize their neighbors, and don't know their names.

* Most people had at least some problem-solving abilities.
* People today don't know how to change the battery in their car door-opener.

* They didn't have welfare, or the mentality that goes with it.
* Just what do you expect third-generation welfare receipients to be willing or able to do?

* A lot of production was relatively localized.
* What is made in America that is actually useful? And how far is it from you?

* Most goods were made in the U.S.
* Most of our goods are made in China, Indonesia, and Taiwan.

* People knew how to make-do; nothing was wasted.
* A U of AZ study indicates that 40-50% of US edible food never gets eaten. Over $43 billion worth of edible food is estimated to be thrown away. The average American disposes of over a ton of waste per year, every year.

* They lived real lives.
* We have television.

The government/Federal Reserve has been juggling finances and cooking the books for a long time. It will be interesting to see how long they can keep the situation afloat. If they can't, we will probably regress somewhere between 150 and 10,000 years. THAT is what I call the S hitting the F.

And I think the "Great" Depression will be a Sunday School picnic by comparison.

Cynical Sue

Top
#127864 - 03/20/08 12:29 PM Re: Hereís the scenario [Re: Susan]
benjammin Offline
Rapscallion
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 02/06/04
Posts: 4020
Loc: Anchorage AK
A good perspective, but I think one thing you overlook is that those in power today wield far more of it than those from 80 years ago. While teetering on the brink probably plays into their hand well (what do people with power want after all?), actually allowing our civilization to fall over the edge would likely prove counterproductive, otherwise they'd have pushed it over long ago. The threat is almost always much worse than the reality, so I don't ever expect a full on collapse, but several limited crises are quite likely, similar to what we've experienced over my lifetime so far, each seeming to escalate the risk, but really only exacerbating our burden just a little bit more than the previous one.

I cite this most recent calamity avoidance effort as just the sort of thing we can continue to expect. The media whips up an ever increasing cacaphony of urgency that our economy is getting ready to go feet up, then suddenly the feds decide to reduce the interest rate by a relatively significant amount, in reality changing nothing, but effectively saving the day as the markets rally up and suddenly all is well again, the threat having been thwarted, with nothing actually really being done. On the surface, it seems as though we averted an economical killer asteroid yet again, but the reality is nothing about how the vast majority of us run our lives changed any from before this miraculous rescue to after.

We are digging a rather deep hole for ourselves, or rather we are allowing the hole under us to continue to deepen, and I doubt we will ever get out of it again, but I also doubt we will get to the bottom of the hole any time soon either. For all our problems, we still have a far superior armed force to wield around this world. If we got truly desperate, don't you think we would use all the resources available to us to try and recover? If we wanted to take over all the oil fields in the middle east, I have no doubt the US flag would be flying over the entire region in a matter of two weeks or less. It might be a big ethical problem, and the rest of the world might hate us, but not so many would be that willing I think to challenge a desperate giant. Maybe not a plausible option at the moment, but not inconceivable.
_________________________
The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly is to fill the world with fools.
-- Herbert Spencer, English Philosopher (1820-1903)

Top
#127868 - 03/20/08 01:21 PM Re: Hereís the scenario [Re: benjammin]
Dan_McI Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 12/10/07
Posts: 844
Loc: NYC
I've got to agree with benjammin. I think Western Society as a whole, and I include the U.S., Canada, almost all of Europe is not headed in a good direction. We're less capable of taking care of ourselves, expect government or others to do it for us, and are not good as a whole at paying our way. The U.S. still can, but other nations are not really capable of defending their interests with military action. The U.S. is becoming less prepared to do so mentally, although right now, our military is very, very capable, although stretched thin. The military people I've talked to basically look at our forces as the best trained they have ever been.

I don't think the system is going to fall apart, perhaps not even during my lifetime. However, the direction is bad. When and if a collapse comes, it may truly be global. The economy of the world is really interwined. Some nations provide services, know-how, without making any products. Some nations, such as China, provide the manufacturing. Some nations provide raw materials for production. Some cannot get things going well enough to get much beyond subsitence. Some fit into more than one category, liek the U.S. which exports lots of foods and services and imports lots of manufactured goods. If the markets collapse for the services, the markets for the manufactured goods also collapse, followed by the raw materials. I don't see a fast decline into a barter economy. But we depend on trade for most things. The order of a collapse, how it will happen, what will be needed to cause it, no real idea, although my inkling is that pandemic will be involved, if it happens anytime soon.

Pandemic is a tough thing to predict about how one can deal with it. The best scenario is to catch it, fight it with your immune system, and get over it. Easy to say, not easy to think you will be able to do so. People survived the black death, but it wiped out much of Europe.

Not seeing it in the immediate future, the question should not only be about preparing and how one does it, but how one prepares those who will follow us, especially your kids. EDIT: by no means do this mean I think we should not think about and prepare in case there is a big collapse. You never know when it might come, and one of the best ways to prepare your kids is to prepare yourself, as it rubs off. The guys I know who store food as a matter of course, usually learned it from their parents.


Edited by Dan_McI (03/20/08 02:14 PM)

Top
#127927 - 03/20/08 10:44 PM Re: Hereís the scenario [Re: benjammin]
LED Offline
Veteran

Registered: 09/01/05
Posts: 1474
Originally Posted By: benjammin
If we got truly desperate, don't you think we would use all the resources available to us to try and recover?


Unfortunately I'd have to say no. No one (no politician) wants to spoil the party and ask the waiter for the tab. The news today mentions the fed lowering the reserve requirement to 20% of minimum (down from 30%) for fannie mae and freddie mac. How is guaranteeing a couple trillion more in shaky home loans a sound decision? I smell a taxpayer fleecing as the fed is who pretty much backs those two giants. I guess my point is that things are pretty desperate, and no one (in a position of influence) is doing much to change it.

Top
#127998 - 03/21/08 01:27 PM Re: Hereís the scenario [Re: LED]
benjammin Offline
Rapscallion
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 02/06/04
Posts: 4020
Loc: Anchorage AK
Maybe it's just me then, but life seems to be about as easy as it's ever been lately, despite all the desperation. I am able to put away a bigger portion of my paycheck these days than ever before, despite having more expenses than I've ever had. I have more work to do than I have in a long time, I am eating well, I've been getting a lot more sex lately, and my girls not only are no longer whining at me about how tough their life is, but are actually sounding grateful for all the things I do for them, and how fortunate they are for having such great parents (though I won't discount that this is a ploy to soften me up before fleecing me yet again, they are definitely getting wiser, if not smarter).

Maybe it's just that I've learned enough at this point in life about how to play the game that I am actually starting to win for a change, but it seems most of the people around me aren't in too bad a shape either, at least the smarter ones. I won't take too much credit, but I gotta think that I've had my fingers burned enough times to at least know what sort of pitfalls to avoid. Even a monkey can learn to avoid things that don't make him feel too good.
_________________________
The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly is to fill the world with fools.
-- Herbert Spencer, English Philosopher (1820-1903)

Top
#127999 - 03/21/08 01:28 PM Re: Hereís the scenario [Re: benjammin]
wildman800 Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/09/06
Posts: 2847
Loc: La-USA
I have been having that same revelation about myself, of late.

It has me waiting for "the other shoe to drop"
_________________________
QMC, USCG (Ret)
The best luck is what you make yourself!

Top
#128017 - 03/21/08 04:51 PM Re: Hereís the scenario [Re: wildman800]
Susan Offline
Geezer

Registered: 01/21/04
Posts: 5163
Loc: W. WA
"... actually allowing our civilization to fall over the edge would likely prove counterproductive, otherwise they'd have pushed it over long ago."

I suspect you're assuming great intelligence among the greedy manipulators. People who are always thinking about how to fleece someone else, and only think of themselves are basically criminal-minded. Many criminals succeed, but most of them don't. Even the more intelligent ones seem to always overlook some crucial facet of the situation. And if America goes belly-up, I think it will be due to something happening that they didn't expect, with someone or some group attempting to grab the equivalent of an unbalanced tray falling off a table edge and missing it. Then I think there will be a severe domino effect.

Stock market levels are neither a cause nor a control, they are only indicators of faith.

"When and if a collapse comes, it may truly be global."

There's no 'maybe' about it. The Great Depression was worldwide then. And there is far more interaction between countries now than there was then.

A major depression here would probably be catastropic. But imagine the Third World countries that are America's trained dogs, the ones that we feed.

I no longer have TV, and don't take a newspaper. I think they both warp one's thinking, because the information being fed to us is what they want us to hear/know, and you know damned well that it isn't likely to be the truth. I go more by the EFFECTS.

Sue

Top
#128021 - 03/21/08 05:40 PM Re: Hereís the scenario [Re: Susan]
benjammin Offline
Rapscallion
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 02/06/04
Posts: 4020
Loc: Anchorage AK
Yes, the risk is there. Certainly the power-mongers failure is that no matter how smart and wise they are, and some are, their greed is always just a little bit bigger, which is why we are doomed to eventually fail. Whether it is acute or chronic, the end is inevitable thanks mostly to the actions of a few at the top. The only difference being that if it falls through it will be a lot more obvious than if it just slowly erodes away.

I guess my point is that so long as we remain the most powerful nation in the world in terms of military might, we have a hedge against going straight to the bottom of the pile, in that we can use what power we've got to drain the resources of those below us on our way down. It won't likely stop our descent, but it will spread our misery out a little thinner so the contrast between us and those around us ain't quite so extreme.
_________________________
The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly is to fill the world with fools.
-- Herbert Spencer, English Philosopher (1820-1903)

Top
Page 1 of 4 1 2 3 4 >



Moderator:  Alan_Romania, Blast, chaosmagnet, cliff 
May
Su M Tu W Th F Sa
1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28 29 30 31
Who's Online
0 registered (), 270 Guests and 9 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Newest Members
Explorer9, GallenR, Jeebo, NicholasMarshall, Yadav
5368 Registered Users
Newest Posts
Recent Signal Mirror Successes - more wanted
by rafowell
05/26/24 09:10 PM
Hoover Stew
by dougwalkabout
05/26/24 03:03 AM
Silver
by Jeanette_Isabelle
05/23/24 06:24 PM
New Madrid Seismic Zone
by Jeanette_Isabelle
05/17/24 03:49 PM
EDC Reduction
by Jeanette_Isabelle
05/16/24 07:59 PM
Any shortages where you are?
by adam2
05/16/24 09:49 AM
Bird Flu (H5N1) found in cattle -- are Humans next
by dougwalkabout
05/10/24 01:28 AM
My Doug Ritter Folder Attacked Me!
by dougwalkabout
05/04/24 02:30 AM
Newest Images
Tiny knife / wrench
Handmade knives
2"x2" Glass Signal Mirror, Retroreflective Mesh
Trade School Tool Kit
My Pocket Kit
Glossary
Test

WARNING & DISCLAIMER: SELECT AND USE OUTDOORS AND SURVIVAL EQUIPMENT, SUPPLIES AND TECHNIQUES AT YOUR OWN RISK. Information posted on this forum is not reviewed for accuracy and may not be reliable, use at your own risk. Please review the full WARNING & DISCLAIMER about information on this site.