No politics please - Upcoming furlough

Posted by: Mark_R

No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 09/30/13 02:49 AM

I know this thread can very easily devolve into a political screaming match, so I'm asking everybody to please keep it under control.

For those of you who are not aware, Congress and the White House are deadlocked on the federal budget. If they do not pass a budget by Monday midnight, there will be a partial federal goverment shutdown. What this means is emergency services, schools, and the post office will still be function. Social security and medicare checks will go out, but approximately 10% of the wage earners in the county will either be furloughed without pay, or will be payed later when a budget is passed.

http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2013/Sep/.../?#article-copy

How do you prepare for having zero income, or having a sizable chunk of the population having zero income at the same time? Many of these folks took 20% pay cuts during the 2013 sequestration fuloughs.
Posted by: benjammin

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 09/30/13 06:32 AM

Ok, no politics, but it seems to me that the only way to win is not to play. Cut the strings, find another path. It may be too late for some.

I determined long ago that I would find a way to keep one step ahead. I would do whatever I had to do within the limits of the law and my ethics to make sure I stayed ahead of the curve.

I found something I could do very well, that had a constantly increasing demand in the market, and that was portable. I did it better than anyone else, and my pay has steadily increased in the past 20 years ahead of inflation, even today. I make three times more than I did a decade ago, and it will continue to increase. I have worked with the government on occasion, when it suited my needs. When it didn't I quit working for them and found work in the private sector that paid even better.

Nobody has to work for the government. It is a choice, which carries it's perils just as any other career path does.

The rat race sucks. It still works, but it has pitfalls you have to be mindful of. When the rat race starts failing, I will pursue other opportunities that will keep me ahead of the curve.

It is that simple. It is not easy, but it is not complicated either. I started life in a garage, struggled through school, and worked three jobs at once in my twenties before I got married, all minimum wage, just to keep my head above water.

Choices are easy. Consequences, not so much.
Posted by: bws48

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 09/30/13 01:09 PM

Originally Posted By: Mark_R

How do you prepare for having zero income,


Saving money from every paycheck. I realize this is old fashioned advice, and easy to say but hard to do. The old advice (and still not bad) is to save and keep about 6 months worth of living expenses available.
Posted by: Am_Fear_Liath_Mor

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 09/30/13 01:12 PM

Quote:
How do you prepare for having zero income, or having a sizable chunk of the population having zero income at the same time?


Anyone who has taken notice of world events in the last 5 years from the total failure of the globalist banking system (which only can survive through the trickery of creating vast sums of fiat money out of thin air via the electronic printing press) to the bail in (a euphemism for direct theft) of folks pensions and savings or the deliberate deflationary policy to slowly steal wealth of large sections of middle class society to the deliberate transfer of private elite debt to the future generations of taxpayers and the government dependency for vast numbers to even survive through electronic food rationing policies will of course lead to the inevitable of payment default where exponentially increasing national debt occurs, would have of course realized that there will be a time to prepare for catastrophic economic events that could occur very quickly. The chaos could be even more momentous than the break up and economic event that was the demise of the Soviet Union Empire.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123051100709638419.html

Or to sum up, folks have had 5 years to prepare to pay off their debts, have 6 months of storable food available, to have enough cash on hand to pay their way for 12 months and have transferred their fiat electronic savings assets into physical survival assets. i.e. having $5000 in a bank account that could evaporate overnight could be better served as a 3KW solar PV array on the roof.
Posted by: hikermor

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 09/30/13 01:53 PM

In 1996 during the last shutdown, I was working at Channel Islands National Park and afflicted by the shenanigans. Mostly it was frustrating because I had projects, plans,and research underway on which I could not work. Many of these affected others outside the government who could not plan for projects either.

A good many of us turned to temp jobs, savings, or worked free lance (I worked on a book - I still have the manuscript). Also caught up on yard work and projects around the house. A fellow worker learned HTML and, upon returning to the job, improved the park's nascent web site.

Most of the real losses were incurred by small businesses in our area who were dependent upon visitors and their spending. That lost business was gone forever.

As this set of "crises" looms, again I, now "retired," have some research plans afoot,and mostly it is a problem for my colleagues who are trying to make travel plans. it will go down to Hq and touch base before the coach turns into a pumpkin at midnight tonight.

It was much like the hit we took during the 1994 Northridge quake. Power was out, the computers and most telephones were out.

The lesson in all of this is to have contingency plans, savings, and resources available against glitches, congressionally mandated or otherwise. It can happen to anyone, anywhere.

BTW, congress in its infinite wisdom, approved back pay for those workers who were furloughed (they were voters, after all) and it all boiled down to an enforced vacation.

I don't think this will be the end of the world.
Posted by: MDinana

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 09/30/13 01:54 PM

Oh you know, just go to work and gripe about not being paid. My wife and I have enough squirreled away for a year, if we really have to. She's great at saving; I'm a darned seive w/ money.
Posted by: Tjin

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 09/30/13 01:57 PM

Originally Posted By: bws48
Originally Posted By: Mark_R

How do you prepare for having zero income,


Saving money from every paycheck. I realize this is old fashioned advice, and easy to say but hard to do. The old advice (and still not bad) is to save and keep about 6 months worth of living expenses available.


+1 and don't forget, to reduce your fixed expenses.
Posted by: Russ

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 09/30/13 02:38 PM

We read the tea leaves years ago and got ready with food and other options. Starting now I'd need a lot more assets, but I'd do the same thing. Get rid of debt. I've been debt free since the first time I retired back in the 90's. Credit card is the only thing I have now and it's paid off each month.

As Am_Fear_Liath_Mor indicated the bail-ins that occurred recently in Cyprus should have wakened a few folks. Do you really think the FDIC has enough $$ to pay all of us when Citi, BOA, WF & JP Morgan Chase go TU at the same time? The recent happenings in Poland should be very alarming, essentially taking half the assets of a/the major retirement fund.

So now we have both bank deposits and retirement funds being taken by for all intents and purposes, the government. Here in the USA our central bank (The Fed) just prints more money and over time a very subtle theft of buying power is taken. The official inflation rate is low because food and fuel are not included in those calculations. They used to be included but they raised the inflation rate to an unacceptable level. Using the old numbers I think the current inflation rate is higher, check shadowstats.com/. Just wait for the bond market to collapse and interest rates to rise. I'm hearing rumors that our retirement funds 401K/IRA's may be legislated into the bond market to keep that market from imploding Then it gets ugly.

Good luck.

Posted by: ILBob

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 09/30/13 02:49 PM

how is this any different than anyone else's job that is at some risk?
Posted by: Arney

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 09/30/13 03:03 PM

Originally Posted By: benjammin
Nobody has to work for the government. It is a choice, which carries it's perils just as any other career path does.

You don't have to work for the government to feel the knock on effects of a government shutdown if goverment contracts to private companies are not paid in a timely manner. We'll probably see a spike in the unemployment numbers. Hopefully, just a temporary situation.

Of course, it's also true that nobody has to "work for" the government, i.e. choosing a lifestyle gets you off the grid, so to speak. Sadly, either you're really, really rich or "poor" to live this way.

From the reports I've seen, the number of self-employed people are at historically low levels, so this traditional way of making it on your own has become more difficult for various reasons.
Posted by: Russ

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 09/30/13 03:09 PM

A lot of peeps aren't tuned in until a bad situation affects them personally. I learned long ago to analyze events unfolding and see if those dots connect with my personal dots. In this case they did, my take-home $$ is half what it was last year. This is why we prepare. Being debt free going in helped a lot.

On the bright side my taxes will be less and theoretically I get to spend more time at the gym.
Posted by: MDinana

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 09/30/13 05:02 PM

maybe off topic, but has anyone thought about what happens IF the banks all go TU at the same time, a la 1929? What happens to all those checking/saving accounts? Does that electronic money just evaporate?

I'm not a believer in stocking gold/silver (b/c, really, it has no value other than what someone wants it to be). But keeping cash on hand .... good/bad? I might hit the ATM a few times this week and make sure to have some on hand.

If we fall back to a barter system I bet most of us are SOL.
Posted by: bws48

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 09/30/13 06:00 PM

Originally Posted By: MDinana
maybe off topic, but has anyone thought about what happens IF the banks all go TU at the same time, a la 1929? What happens to all those checking/saving accounts? Does that electronic money just evaporate?

I'm not a believer in stocking gold/silver (b/c, really, it has no value other than what someone wants it to be). But keeping cash on hand .... good/bad? I might hit the ATM a few times this week and make sure to have some on hand.

If we fall back to a barter system I bet most of us are SOL.


A lot of banks (certainly not all) went TU in the last crises. The primary source of protection is FDIC (federal deposit insurance corporation), which insures deposits up to $100,000, and was raised to $250,000. That is a "per account" limit, so, a diversity in banks and accounts may be a viable option. Also, to avoid having to pay out these funds, the FDIC fostered many takeovers of at risk banks by stronger banks.

I doubt the furlough seriously puts many banks at risk; banking "stress tests" have caused them to raise reserves etc.

But when you ask "all", the only response is that no one knows, but "all" is very unlikely. There are some very well managed local and regional banks out there that get little or no publicity, and I would expect them to sail through with little or no problem.

Frankly, IMO there is too much hype and fear about this in the news. Someone always seems to try to use fear to sell their idea. The last shut-down 17 years ago really was more of a glitch than a disaster.
Posted by: MDinana

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 09/30/13 06:37 PM

Originally Posted By: bws48

Frankly, IMO there is too much hype and fear about this in the news. Someone always seems to try to use fear to sell their idea. The last shut-down 17 years ago really was more of a glitch than a disaster.

That's a good point. I was in high school at the time, but I don't recall anything drastic seeming out of place.

More than the sequester though, I worry about our having to (again) raise the debt ceiling and what that could do. While I realize it's likely a different topic, it dovetails with this one.

I wonder if FDIC makes any difference when we're so many trillions in debt? Where are they going to magically come up with enough money to cover several hundred thousand (millions?) of accounts?
Posted by: Arney

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 09/30/13 06:38 PM

Originally Posted By: MDinana
maybe off topic, but has anyone thought about what happens IF the banks all go TU at the same time, a la 1929? What happens to all those checking/saving accounts? Does that electronic money just evaporate?

I think the Federal Reserve and the Federal government have already demonstrated that there is no limit to how much "money" they are willing to create out of thin air to keep the financial system solvent, if it came to that. So, I think the risk of widespread bank failures all at once is remote. If people started panicking for some reason and rushing to their banks and ATM's all at once, the Fed or President will just declare a bank holiday until the PR damage control team can flood the airwaves with reassuring messages and every cable channel will be showing the good movies, like during sweeps week, to distract the masses.

I think it would take a tremendous event to panic the bulk of American's at the same time into a bank run, short of some drastic action from the authorities first, like a devaluation of the dollar.

Speaking of bank holidays, what's going on with Panama and it's bank holiday? Haven't had time to look into that at all. Doesn't sound like another Cyprus situation, but sounds ominous.
Posted by: Arney

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 09/30/13 07:01 PM

Originally Posted By: Mark_R
How do you prepare for having zero income, or having a sizable chunk of the population having zero income at the same time? Many of these folks took 20% pay cuts during the 2013 sequestration fuloughs.

I really want to answer this question, but there's no easy answers except short term stop gap measures, like having an emergency fund. The subprime meltdown in 2007 and financial crisis in 2008 demonstrated how quickly booming industries can dry up in the blink of an eye (construction, mortgage lending, real estate, etc.) and many of those jobs have not and will never come back within any reasonable time period. Government hasn't really changed as quickly as the private sector, but who knows if that will always be the case.

I doubt any government shutdown will have any remotely similar effect, but just saying that trying to be prepared and diversified, employment-wise, can be tricky in today's lean, just-in-time climate. Many of us may already be working more than one job, which might cushion any blow, if we're still getting the income from the other job(s).

Being flexible about moving where the jobs is another tactic, but with kids or an underwater mortgage, not really practical for many people.
Posted by: Eugene

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 09/30/13 07:41 PM

Short term:

Have a good rotation of supplies at home. You'll want to cut out eating out to save $ and need to cut into your pantry. Have a good supply of other items as well, its hard to interview for a new job if you have ran out deodorant.

Try on your interview suit once a year to see if it still fits. Keep your resume up to date. Network with others during times when you have a job using tools such as linkedin and professional organizations like ISACA, ISC2, etc.

Keep your debt low and credit score good.


Long term:

Live in an area where there are jobs. I'd love to live on the farm in WV but then I'd be limited to one job over an hour commute away so if that one job goes away I'd have no plan B. Instead I live in an area where there are dozens of jobs within walking distance and even more within driving distance.
Posted by: JBMat

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 09/30/13 08:42 PM

No politics -

So non-essential personnel are going to be told to stay home, if I read the local news correctly. And why are we paying non-essential personnel - think about it. Just a thought.

No income - short term - cut back. No cable, no internet (leech off of free Wi-Fi), no going to movies. Go to the library and read books or sign out movies there. You'd be amazed what you waste money on. Eat cheaply but with an eye to nutrition. No fast food, no alcohol, no take out. Consider cheap buffets.

Long term - get a job where Uncle's political vagaries won't effect you.
Posted by: UTAlumnus

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 09/30/13 10:39 PM

Quote:
which insures deposits up to $100,000, and was raised to $250,000. That is a "per account" limit


This will probably result in a lawsuit unless it has already been addressed. The FDIC website calculator looks at it as an account being the person. Most people have several accounts at a given institution. (i.e. savings, checking, & money market) FDIC has been running a commercial around here where they specifically say per account and not per person.
Posted by: chaosmagnet

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 09/30/13 11:00 PM

Originally Posted By: Eugene
Short term:Try on your interview suit once a year to see if it still fits. Keep your resume up to date. Network with others during times when you have a job using tools such as linkedin and professional organizations like ISACA, ISC2, etc.


I would recommend that you go further than that. Update your resume at least quarterly. Have friends who are super-freakin'-nitpicky and ask them to go over your resume with a fine-toothed comb. Return calls from recruiters.

My specialty is in high demand, and occasionally I will take an interview even if I'm happy where I'm working. This tests not just the interview suit but the interviewing skills and procedures. It also helps you understand better what the market for your skills are like. Don't lead anyone down the garden path -- be clear about your level of interest. You know your industry better than I do (unless, perhaps, you're in network security) so don't do this if it will burn any bridges. The idea is to use this time to build your bridge-building skills.

For me, LinkedIn has been highly valuable. InfraGard has been valuable. (ISC)2 can be a tremendous time sink -- but the cert I earned had a huge and lasting impact upon my career. I like the idea of ISACA and ISSA but don't have a lot of time for them. Most important to me are the industry contacts I make and maintain. It's very handy to have a good reputation.
Posted by: Am_Fear_Liath_Mor

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 09/30/13 11:02 PM


Quote:
no alcohol


Thanks, this has reminded to stock up on the Rum. The Malt Scotch Whisky is taken care off in the home preps.

Cheap Rum will do, but the ALDI Old Hopking isn't much of a compromise to the Good old OVD Rum in an emergency. wink

https://www.aldi.co.uk/en/product-range/...pking-dark-rum/
Posted by: Leigh_Ratcliffe

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 09/30/13 11:38 PM

Political commentary removed.



chaosmagnet
Posted by: Russ

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 09/30/13 11:44 PM

Please, no politics. Your comment is exactly why this forum has that policy.
Posted by: Am_Fear_Liath_Mor

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 09/30/13 11:49 PM

I think it takes many decades of Collective National effort to get into such a mess. It certainly has done in the UK wink
Posted by: MartinFocazio

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/01/13 12:33 AM

Originally Posted By: Arney

From the reports I've seen, the number of self-employed people are at historically low levels, so this traditional way of making it on your own has become more difficult for various reasons.


Forbes disagrees:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/joelkotkin/2...eir-own-bosses/

"While the economy has been miserable for small business, and many larger ones as well, the ranks of the self-employed have been growing. According to research by Economic Modeling Specialists International, the number of people who primarily work on their own has swelled by 1.3 million since 2001 to 10.6 million, a 14% increase."
Posted by: MartinFocazio

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/01/13 12:35 AM

Originally Posted By: Russ
The official inflation rate is low because food and fuel are not included in those calculations.


Read this before you make any general statements like that:
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/07/consumerpriceindex.asp
Posted by: MartinFocazio

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/01/13 12:42 AM

Originally Posted By: MDinana
maybe off topic, but has anyone thought about what happens IF the banks all go TU at the same time, a la 1929? What happens to all those checking/saving accounts? Does that electronic money just evaporate?


That just happened in 2008-2012
You didn't notice? That's because the FDIC exists now, it didn't in 1929.

I don't think people realize just how many banks actually failed.

25 In 2008
140 in 2009
157 in 2010
92 in 2011
51 in 2012.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_bank_failures_in_the_United_States_(2008%E2%80%93present)

Total lost deposits of "electronic money" as you call it? $0.

Not. One. Penny.

Folks, the system is far, far stronger than you might like to think it is. Lessons HAVE been learned from the past and while this Furlough situation can and will hit the economy hard, it's by no means a country-killer.

In fact, countries like Iceland, Poland, Cyprus, Greece and more have, after all is said and done, done OK with their financial issues.

In terms of the Furlough? It will be annoying for most, distressing for some, devastating for a few who don't have the cash on hand to make it a month.

But it's hardly economic armageddon. We just went through that and it's been bad for many, but not for all.
Posted by: Russ

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/01/13 12:50 AM

Thanks for the link, but I agree with John Williams' analysis.
Posted by: benjammin

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/01/13 03:35 AM

That's funny. People are holding on to dollars that are steadily losing money, and will be worthless long before precious metals start to fail, yet still see gold and silver holdings as a risk in an extended crisis.

When the dollar collapses, it could happen in hours. The transition to a full on barter only system will take weeks, as people realize that the economy is not going to recover as quick as the government lies indicate. During that time, the dollar will be worthless, while people will place even greater value on precious metals. The junk silver I have will be highly desirable during that period, possibly being over-valued by as much as 300% (right now a silver dime is worth a cheap loaf of bread, it could be worth a gallon of gas in that crisis period).

It would be prudent to have a few thousand dollars on hand, and 10-15k worth of junk silver. Then it is all about barter items if things keep spinning down the drain.

But saying gold and silver has no value while trying to retain dollars as a hedge when it will vaporize like flash paper when tshtf seems a bit backwards to me.
Posted by: benjammin

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/01/13 03:51 AM

When you have the Fed generating $83 billion a month, it is pretty easy to balance the bottom line. Of course, the bailout bought up all the debt the banks generated with bad investments. This kept the govt from having to step up to honor and FDIC losses, as they never materialized. So the Fed sits on mountains of bad investments they will never call, since they can just print what they need and rob all of us to cover the loss.

But no, we're not in bad shape. Not as long as the rest of the world still believes that all those dollars are still worth something.

Let's hope the Chinese never lose faith in us. We keep losing our credit rating, and it will get increasingly difficult to convince everyone else to keep doing business with us without asking for a higher rate of return.
Posted by: Leigh_Ratcliffe

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/01/13 03:56 AM

It's not politics.
You never, ever acced to blackmail or negotiate for hostages.
Posted by: hikermor

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/01/13 04:02 AM

I must agree with Russ and the mods on this. This is a non-political forum.
Posted by: Paul810

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/01/13 04:27 AM

It's official....The Shutdown is on.

It will be interesting to see the true effect, since we haven't had one in a good 17 or so years.
Posted by: Phaedrus

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/01/13 05:59 AM

Hard to see this thread going much longer at the rate it's going.
Posted by: adam2

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/01/13 09:01 AM

From a safe distance, the shutdown itself may not be that bad, except for those directly affected by no or much reduced pay.

My concern would be that the shutdown might just possibly trigger a general lack of confidence in the whole system and leed to bank runs or other countries dumping USA investments.
Posted by: MDinana

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/01/13 01:17 PM

Originally Posted By: benjammin
That's funny. People are holding on to dollars that are steadily losing money, and will be worthless long before precious metals start to fail, yet still see gold and silver holdings as a risk in an extended crisis.

When the dollar collapses, it could happen in hours. The transition to a full on barter only system will take weeks, as people realize that the economy is not going to recover as quick as the government lies indicate. During that time, the dollar will be worthless, while people will place even greater value on precious metals. The junk silver I have will be highly desirable during that period, possibly being over-valued by as much as 300% (right now a silver dime is worth a cheap loaf of bread, it could be worth a gallon of gas in that crisis period).

It would be prudent to have a few thousand dollars on hand, and 10-15k worth of junk silver. Then it is all about barter items if things keep spinning down the drain.

But saying gold and silver has no value while trying to retain dollars as a hedge when it will vaporize like flash paper when tshtf seems a bit backwards to me.

Gold and silver have no practical purpose in life, other than it's "rare" and shiny. OK, sure, you can use silver for dishes or something, and gold is nice for electronics, but it's not a practical metal. It's no more or less stable than the dollar that way.

I mean, you can't eat it. You won't be tilling your fields with it. In a true barter economy, it's value is only what someone is willing to trade for it. I'm sorry, but if my kid is starving, and yours is too, you're 1kg gold bar is going to be hard to stomach for your kid, cuz mine is keeping her food. I might trade you for bullets (ie, brass and lead), or something steel (plow, pitchfork, shovel, knife, etc), but gold? Ha! Silver? Ha!
Posted by: Arney

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/01/13 01:36 PM

Originally Posted By: MartinFocazio
Originally Posted By: Arney

From the reports I've seen, the number of self-employed people are at historically low levels, so this traditional way of making it on your own has become more difficult for various reasons.

Forbes disagrees...

Ah, how the meaning of words change over time. By "self-employed," I meant starting your own small business.

The Forbes article is talking about the "1099 economy" where many formerly full-time employee positions are replaced with independent contractors. Some professions have always worked this way, but many company offices are full of these independent contractors although you'd never know that they weren't regular employees. They go to one job every day, have a boss, and do everything a regular employee does. As an independent contractor, however, you're even more vulnerable to being fired than a regular employee, don't get benefits or the same pay raises, and you still depend on the whims of your "employer" for having a "job."

That same article does agree that small businesses are having a tough time.
Quote:
While the economy has been miserable for small business, and many larger ones as well, the ranks of the self-employed have been growing.


Just did a quick Google search and this was one of the first articles to come up:
Quote:
...the startup numbers are truly striking: In 1987, 13 percent of all American firms were new launches. By 2010, for the first time on record, the startup rate had fallen to an all-time low of less than 8 percent, according to data released Wednesday by the Census Bureau and the Kauffman Foundation. In the early 80s, almost 50 percent of firms were five years old or younger. In 2010, that number had fallen to 35.
Posted by: hikermor

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/01/13 02:03 PM

"So non-essential personnel are going to be told to stay home, if I read the local news correctly. And why are we paying non-essential personnel - think about it. Just a thought."

Among the "non-essential" personnel are FAA safety inspectors. Good luck on your next flight
Posted by: hikermor

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/01/13 02:16 PM

The sun is rising this morning and the weather is still on. Those must be essential services. More seriously, I wonder who is furloughed at FEMA and what the response would be to something like a major earthquake or a hurricane during the shutdown.

I would hope that the 200+ folks still on duty at the Rim fire are still on duty (and getting paid).
Posted by: Arney

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/01/13 02:18 PM

Originally Posted By: hikermor
"So non-essential personnel are going to be told to stay home, if I read the local news correctly. And why are we paying non-essential personnel - think about it. Just a thought."

There's no guarantee that workers told to stay home will ever be paid for that time off. That's totally up to Congress. During the last shutdown, they were paid their backpay but like I said, that's not guaranteed.
Posted by: Russ

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/01/13 02:22 PM

Gold and silver have been money for eons -- 5000 years give or take.

from: The Meaning of Money: Its Purposes and Functions
Quote:
... Gold and silver, commodities with inherent value and with pedigrees as money going back thousands of years, are emerging as the choice for universal money. The ability of these precious metals to always act as a store of value makes them an unparalleled choice for such a job. Moreover a series of competitive currency devaluations is likely (known as a "beggar thy neighbour policy") as each country tries desperately to increase its exports at the expense of the other. Gold is now rising in value against all of the world's major currencies....
Bottom line is that money that comes off a printing press is properly called currency. Currencies can be devalued and their buying power can change dramatically over time. Paper currency is not a store of value. Have you ever wondered why the central banks of the world transact in gold?

Gold is a true store over value/wealth. Gold expressed in dollars appears to go up and down in value, but the truth is that an ounce of gold is always an ounce of gold; it is the dollar going up and down in value. Stop thinking of gold as an investment; it is money.

BTW, I won't be using gold or silver to barter for food or bullets, don't need to.
Posted by: Am_Fear_Liath_Mor

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/01/13 02:54 PM


Quote:
Gold and silver have no practical purpose in life, other than it's "rare" and shiny.


I used to use Silver alloys for welding bicycle frames together and they used to use silver alloys in Aerospace applications for welding together the titanium alloy structures for Vulcan Bombers together as well.

Silver has its uses and make for some very nice Sterling Silver cutlery as well.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sterling_silver

Try asking the wife for their gold jewelry to sell for some gardening tools/bags of fertilizer etc and see how far you get! laugh
Posted by: MDinana

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/01/13 03:13 PM

Originally Posted By: Am_Fear_Liath_Mor

Quote:
Gold and silver have no practical purpose in life, other than it's "rare" and shiny.


I used to use Silver alloys for welding bicycle frames together and they used to use silver alloys in Aerospace applications for welding together the titanium alloy structures for Vulcan Bombers together as well.

Silver has its uses and make for some very nice Sterling Silver cutlery as well.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sterling_silver

Try asking the wife for their gold jewelry to sell for some gardening tools/bags of fertilizer etc and see how far you get! laugh



In a SHTF economy, or economic disaster, are you really going to be making airplanes, bombers, or bike frames? I should probably edit my above post to say there's very little practical application for gold/silver, but you're right in that there are some uses.

Gold (and to a lesser extent, silver, or heck, any precious gem) have value only because people want them to have value. In practical terms, they're near useless. Look at every third world country... food, water and shelter.

The only thing precious metals/gems are good for ie exchanging for goods with people that think they're worth the exchange. Cut out the second half of that (ie, "I'd rather keep this than hold on to a chunk of metal), and the whole system falls apart. There's a reason why bartering got replaced by currency, but if it goes back the other way ...

As for my wife, if the kid has dropped 10 lbs and is starving to death (she's only 17 lbs right now), I'm sure that jewlery is gone for a can of formula.
Posted by: Am_Fear_Liath_Mor

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/01/13 03:57 PM

Quote:

As for my wife, if the kid has dropped 10 lbs and is starving to death (she's only 17 lbs right now), I'm sure that jewlery is gone for a can of formula.


This happened quite frequently in eastern Europe during the Jewish Pogrom of the 1930-40s when the ghetto's were setup under the German Nazi Regime. Those with the most Gold and Silver left to trade for food survived the longest before dying of Starvation. Those with a large amounts of Gold where able to trade their gold even for freedom and passage to other neutral countries such as Sweden and Switzerland.

Gold and Silver ownership has its place in the last ditch effort to survive in absolutely barbaric times.

As mentioned in the third world, the means to survival is definitely food, potable water and shelter. The lack of these resources is due to poverty i.e. the lack of enough wealth to purchase such items. If fiat paper currency becomes worthless through devaluation i.e. hyper inflation then the second line means of trade will become Gold and Silver or other precious metals. This has been historically true.

If a bartering system becomes the predominant system of trade, then you may well find yourself going back in time 2000-2500 years. Primitive times indeed and I would have to say even medieval dark age populations densities also!



Posted by: unimogbert

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/01/13 05:17 PM

There was a link to a fairly thoughtful article about how things were in Argentina during their most recent collapse.

One notable item was that junk gold rings made the very best trading "money." Easily divided, easily recognized.
Posted by: Mark_R

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/01/13 07:17 PM

Originally Posted By: Arney
Originally Posted By: hikermor
"So non-essential personnel are going to be told to stay home, if I read the local news correctly. And why are we paying non-essential personnel - think about it. Just a thought."

There's no guarantee that workers told to stay home will ever be paid for that time off. That's totally up to Congress. During the last shutdown, they were paid their backpay but like I said, that's not guaranteed.


Umm, Arney. Non-essential personnel includes most of the people than work at the federal goverment's (including DOD, DOI, DOE, EPA, etc) various departments and maintain the goverments facilities and vehicles. "Essential personnel" usually refer to immediate national security and emergency services needs.

In short, the guy manning the lighthouse is probably safe. The guy who patches the lighthouses roof or makes sure there's spare parts; not so much.
Posted by: Arney

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/01/13 09:24 PM

I'm responding to hikemore's comment, "...So non-essential personnel are going to be told to stay home...why are we paying non-essential personnel..."

My response is that that non-essential personnel may not get paid at all for the days they are told to stay home. I'm not commenting on whether these should come in to work or not.
Posted by: hikermor

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/01/13 09:25 PM

Originally Posted By: Mark_R
In short, the guy manning the lighthouse is probably safe. The guy who patches the lighthouses roof or makes sure there's spare parts; not so much.


Don't fret about the lighthouses. I believe there is only one manned lighthouse in the US - the one in Boston Harbor, and it is manned only for historical reasons. All the others are automated with up to date technology, so we all know nothing can go wrong, go wrong.......
Posted by: Russ

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/01/13 10:04 PM

Not political, just funny...
Shut Day Humor: Is The Government Closed?

We need to lighten it up a bit wink
Posted by: JBMat

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/01/13 10:04 PM

I initially made the statement about non-essential personnel. And it has come to roost, as 50% of the non-military people at FT Bragg are being told to stay home (If you can believe the local news.)

Way back when, someone (in an alcohol induced haze I reckon) determined I was mission essential. Maybe it was the fact I am a great spades player, as it sure wasn't my ability to make coffee (the SGM banned me from making the COL's coffee, twice).
More than likely, it was the fact I ran a one man office and no one else could figure out how I did what I did. It meant I had to go to work on snow days. And the day after the hurricane.

Regardless, it appears as if half of the DOD civilian workforce is not essential. This does not count contractors either, just DOD civilian personnel. I guess the guys in the camo suits get to mow lawns now.
Posted by: UTAlumnus

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/01/13 11:25 PM

Isn't plumber's solder for use on potable water lines a silver/tin alloy?
Posted by: haertig

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/02/13 01:24 AM

I get furloughed for a couple of weeks every year. Been going on for a while. Because I work in the private sector, nobody cares. But a government employee? Heaven forbid, the world will end!

The world won't end. This will be short lived as it always is. No special preps are really needed. If this shutdown lasts until the end of the week, I'll be surprised.
Posted by: hikermor

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/02/13 02:30 AM

There is a category of federal employee - "permanent,less than full time" These folks are furloughed without pay for somewhere between two weeks and a month each year. Not the greatest thing, but it is predictable and known in advance. The shutdown is a bit different.

One of the reasons government work at lower pay used to be acceptable was that the work was steady, but that was then and this is now.
Posted by: Am_Fear_Liath_Mor

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/02/13 02:53 AM


Quote:
Don't fret about the lighthouses. I believe there is only one manned lighthouse in the US - the one in Boston Harbor, and it is manned only for historical reasons. All the others are automated with up to date technology, so we all know nothing can go wrong, go wrong.......


Well, it looks like NASA's website server is down. Probably couldn't afford the electricity bill for the server or maybe they have NASA employees on large hamster wheels to power the server who were told to go home. A solar PV panel or two could easily solve that problem. whistle

www.nasa.gov

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ma-YdIGDoC4
Posted by: dougwalkabout

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/02/13 03:14 AM

I have been self-employed for most of my adult life, so I've never had the luxury of a clockwork-regular paycheck. Even when I'm working, I can't invoice until I have achieved certain milestones in a project. Then, it can be 30 days (best case) or 90+ days (it happens) before payment comes my way. And long-term, there is usually one really lousy year in every five year cycle; often this happens following completion of a large, difficult job that kept me away from the network that keeps my name in the game.

Needless to say, this influences how I handle my ongoing finances. Debt is poison, and doubly so when the cash flow comes in fits and starts. You don't spend money until you have it in your hand. There has been a decades-long push to create what I call the "castle keep" -- the backstop situation that ensures I am fed, housed, and have financial resources for bad times. I sacrificed a lot to acquire a country property with a creaky old unfashionable house, but it's paid for; and now as long as I can come up with $1500 a year for taxes, nobody can take it from me.
I haven't travelled the world like some; I've driven a lot of high-mile Japanese cars; I don't have a fancy wardrobe or the newest shiny everything. But I don't have to panic at the latest hiccup in the economy either. Believe me, my lifestyle is less stressful than friends who are big spenders and who survive paycheck to paycheck, hoping nothing goes wrong.

I guess my lifestyle isn't for everyone. But with frugal pioneer grandparents on both sides, I guess I come by it honestly. I'm a rabid fixer, scrounger, and recycler -- as much for personal offbeat entertainment as anything. I have also kept up a wide range of "blue collar" skills that I can draw on for casual income if the professional work hits a severe slump (haven't needed it, but I like having options; I might even get a basic steam/boiler ticket and a Class 1 "big rig" licence one of these days, just for entertainment).

Sorry, this is becoming a biographical novel. Hope you can glean something useful from it -- if only this simple message: with persistence and the right attitude, it is possible.
Posted by: clearwater

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/02/13 03:38 AM

"With 16 staff employees being placed on furlough, Ted Stout, chief of interpretation and education at Craters, told KBOI 2News that no one was looking for 63-year-old Jo Elliott-Blakeslee Tuesday morning, but a handful of staff members will be back out in the challenging terrain in the afternoon resuming the search."

http://www.kboi2.com/news/local/Craters-Moon-Idaho-Jo-Elliott-Blakeslee-Amy-Linkert-225988051.html
Posted by: benjammin

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/02/13 05:19 AM

Yes, eventually precious metals will lose their value, but there is a critical period during a collapse when fiat currency hyperinflates virtually overnight, while precious metal will gain in value substantially. It won't last, maybe only a week or two, maybe a month, depending on how quickly individual surpluses are diminished, and people are left only with what they feel they must have. That's when gold and silver markets will fall. Those two or three weeks are when you can catch peddlers who, being unwilling to do business in dollars, will still want some form of currency they can recognize. Business owners will want to try and continue unloading stock, so they will fall back to something. They'll look to something easily recognized as currency, and for a time a person with some junk silver or some gold coins could probably find some really good deals.

Consumables, such as food and fuel, will likely quit trading in anything but like kind once the local surpluses get depleted and no restocking occurs. That will be the turning point for precious metals. Since just in time restocking is a SOP for all the big stores, they have at most 3 days until their shelves are picked clean. But it will take some time for that to spread into the rest of the market.

At some point, the economy ought to recover, maybe a matter of months, maybe years. When it does, there must be some form of currency that people can rely on. No one will want a fiat currency again, so a standard will be adopted. People with level heads during the crash will be in a good position when the recovery starts up.

It won't last, but there is a window of opportunity, and a prepared person could capitalize on the situation to great effect.
Posted by: MDinana

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/02/13 12:19 PM

Originally Posted By: Am_Fear_Liath_Mor
Quote:

As for my wife, if the kid has dropped 10 lbs and is starving to death (she's only 17 lbs right now), I'm sure that jewlery is gone for a can of formula.


This happened quite frequently in eastern Europe during the Jewish Pogrom of the 1930-40s when the ghetto's were setup under the German Nazi Regime. Those with the most Gold and Silver left to trade for food survived the longest before dying of Starvation. Those with a large amounts of Gold where able to trade their gold even for freedom and passage to other neutral countries such as Sweden and Switzerland.

Gold and Silver ownership has its place in the last ditch effort to survive in absolutely barbaric times.

As mentioned in the third world, the means to survival is definitely food, potable water and shelter. The lack of these resources is due to poverty i.e. the lack of enough wealth to purchase such items. If fiat paper currency becomes worthless through devaluation i.e. hyper inflation then the second line means of trade will become Gold and Silver or other precious metals. This has been historically true.

If a bartering system becomes the predominant system of trade, then you may well find yourself going back in time 2000-2500 years. Primitive times indeed and I would have to say even medieval dark age populations densities also!


That worked because they still have a functioning economy. As was said above, precious metals are a buffer, but anyone that thinks it's the be-all and end-all for economic stability is crazy. IF, however, there is still a functioning economy outside the "zone in question," then it probably does make sense. Ie, Argentina still had a relatively stable economy in the surrounding continent. The Jewish ghettos still had the rest of Europe. Heck, even medieval Europe had medieval Europe.

Anything outside of a pure barter system relies on some sort of item with intrinsic value. Yes, gold and silver are obviously the standard. That's only because society made it the standard. But if the world has some sort of calamitous economic meltdown, who knows. TP and toothpaste might be the new standard.

Is gold/silver a waste of money? No. But I think that, if you're using it in place of dollars (or Euro's, or whatever), then it's kind of silly to think of it's value in dollars. Really, you should be planning "This amount I would give for X item." Get a bunch of junk jewelry from your local pawn shop, not pretty Canada Maples or something (if nothing else, you'd have to start going back to the 2-bits type of system). I bet few people are going to be willing to give up anything for a bunch of 50-'s era nickles.
Posted by: JPickett

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/02/13 02:43 PM

"Not political, just funny..."
Thanks, Russ. I needed that.
Posted by: Arney

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/02/13 06:09 PM

Originally Posted By: JBMat
Regardless, it appears as if half of the DOD civilian workforce is not essential. This does not count contractors either, just DOD civilian personnel.

I see "800,000 Federal workers furloughed" repeatedly in the news, but I'm assuming that workers who are not direct employees of the Federal government (like contractors) are not included in that number. And businesses that normally rely on Federal workers as customers or on tourists to Federally run places are certainly hurting and not reflected in the numbers either. For example, the businesses near Yosemite have been hit with a double-whammy this summer. First the Rim Fire shut down the main road during the peak of the season and now Yosemite is closed due to the shutdown.
Posted by: Bingley

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/03/13 02:53 AM

Originally Posted By: benjammin
Yes, eventually precious metals will lose their value, but there is a critical period during a collapse when fiat currency hyperinflates virtually overnight, while precious metal will gain in value substantially.


That period may last surprisingly long. People can lose confidence in currency, but their faith in precious metal seems to last longer. I can imagine that once people have lost hope that any semblance of a normal economy would return, gold and silver would lose their value fast. But has that ever happened in history? What I'm saying is that thus far humanity has been resilient enough that we've always recovered. Or, perhaps those locations that never recovered just... vanished. You can't create an economy because the situation is so bad, and everyone is just a meal away from starvation. Eventually everyone dies.
Posted by: JPickett

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/03/13 03:32 PM

"Eventually everyone dies."
That's almost always the case.
Posted by: Mark_R

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/03/13 07:38 PM

Originally Posted By: JPickett
"Eventually everyone dies."
That's almost always the case.


Isn't that what we're trying to avoid? Or, at least not be caught in?
Posted by: Byrd_Huntr

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/03/13 09:10 PM

Originally Posted By: hikermor

One of the reasons government work at lower pay used to be acceptable was that the work was steady, but that was then and this is now.



I know that was true back when my dad worked for city gov't, but not any longer, especially when paid benefits are factored in...
Posted by: Mark_R

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/04/13 07:16 PM

Originally Posted By: Byrd_Huntr
Originally Posted By: hikermor

One of the reasons government work at lower pay used to be acceptable was that the work was steady, but that was then and this is now.



I know that was true back when my dad worked for city gov't, but not any longer, especially when paid benefits are factored in...




As of seven year ago when I left federal employment for the private sector, it was true. My federal salary was lower, and benefits (insurance, etc) cost me more then the private sector. But then again, I was a GS-12 engineer and IIRC, overtime was either not given or strongly discouraged. OTOH, I knew some of the shop technicians who were pushing six figures because of all the overtime they racked up.

Either way, getting back to my original question; Stockpile money in either fiat form or in precious materials as a precausion against hyperinflation.

EDIT: Researching my family history, I found that the 1917-1924 Russian hyperinflation cost my great-grandparents their considerable family fortune and turned them into refugees. Jewelry was used to pay for passage out.
Posted by: Arney

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/04/13 07:26 PM

Originally Posted By: MDinana
maybe off topic, but has anyone thought about what happens IF the banks all go TU at the same time, a la 1929? What happens to all those checking/saving accounts? Does that electronic money just evaporate?

The Financial Times is reporting that some of the biggest banks are sending 20-30% more cash than normal to branches in anticipation of a debt limit showdown and crisis. Even one report from some bank customer saying that they tried to withdraw some of their money but the "bank is out of money" could spark more withdrawals, so these banks are trying to avoid that sort of panic.
Posted by: JBMat

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/04/13 09:33 PM

The last time I was a federal employee I was in the Army. I worked all kinds of overtime with no extra pay, the benefits were ok, and they did pay me for falling out of the sky.

Otoh, my dad was career civil service. Left the Army after WW2, went to the post office, then to the Navy as a civilian. His retirement pay was always in the bank on time. He used his 3+ YEARS of sick leave (annual leave could only be banked to 60 days) as a buffer once he retired. He didn't get rich, but he enjoyed what he did.

I guess you take the good with the bad regarding government employment.

Oh, as to the banks. I keep an amount of cash on hand. Banks are for money you don't need right now. My part-time jobs feed the kitty. It's all not in one spot, and it's hidden fairly well. Of course, should the house burn down, I be screwed. Oh well.
Posted by: benjammin

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/05/13 03:40 AM

As a private sector employee, I make about 25% more than my state and federal employed counterparts. Because of the level I am at, my benefits packages are generally better as well. I may not have had the level of job security (as longevity of assignment) as my civil service partners, but I've used that to my benefit.

Now that their jobs are on the block, I think I've made smart choices. I have been able to go where I want, when I want. While I've had to deal with bureaucracy at every turn, it has not been nearly as bad as those sitting across the table from me.

were I to ever do work directly for the government, it would only be as a contract employee, and there would be certain terms and conditions that would have to be included in any agreement I would sign. Amazing when the government's choices are limited what they are willing to sign up for, despite their own regulations.

I think the federal government does far too much contracting business. They collect all this money, then waste most of it trying to administer projects all over the country. They should leave it to the states, and the states should leave it to the counties and cities. Instead, they levy all their taxes and assessments, then use the money to pay off their buddies and families. No one complains because they see all these roads and bridges and schools and think it's great, not realizing there would be twice as much if you cut the state and federal government out of the equation.
Posted by: ILBob

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/05/13 07:09 PM

big deal. all past government shutdowns have resulted in the fedgov employees who were furloughed getting paid anyway. just a short delay.

as I understand it the so called essential employees are not being paid until after the shutdown is resolved, but they still have to show up for work.

the real issue is political. why does any government have any "nonessential" employees at all?
Posted by: Mark_R

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/06/13 01:18 AM

Originally Posted By: ILBob
big deal. all past government shutdowns have resulted in the fedgov employees who were furloughed getting paid anyway. just a short delay.

as I understand it the so called essential employees are not being paid until after the shutdown is resolved, but they still have to show up for work.

the real issue is political. why does any government have any "nonessential" employees at all?


I already explained "nonessential personell" on page 5, and I asked to keep this apolitical.
Posted by: Brangdon

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/11/13 12:13 PM

Originally Posted By: MDinana
Gold (and to a lesser extent, silver, or heck, any precious gem) have value only because people want them to have value. In practical terms, they're near useless.
Their uselessness is part of what makes them a good store of value. Useful things get used up, so they don't last.

Gold emerged as a standard in the past for good historical reason, and those reasons still apply today. It's rare, it doesn't rust or perish, and it is hard to forge. You can mix it with lesser metals, but that's relatively easy to detect by weighing and volume measurement. Gold in a standard form, eg coins, is even easier to validate. Arguably gold is even more likely to become the basis of an economy in future, because of its past. It has a track record. People know it works. They'll expect it.

I think in an initial crisis, people will hope it will end in a few weeks or months, and even uneducated ones will know they'll be able to sell gold for a decent value when its over. So there will be a viable gold economy quite quickly. There's no reason why that shouldn't last, as long as there are humans living above subsistence level to trade with.
Posted by: MDinana

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/11/13 12:59 PM

Originally Posted By: Brangdon
Originally Posted By: MDinana
Gold (and to a lesser extent, silver, or heck, any precious gem) have value only because people want them to have value. In practical terms, they're near useless.
Their uselessness is part of what makes them a good store of value. Useful things get used up, so they don't last.Gold emerged as a standard in the past for good historical reason, and those reasons still apply today. It's rare, it doesn't rust or perish, and it is hard to forge. You can mix it with lesser metals, but that's relatively easy to detect by weighing and volume measurement. Gold in a standard form, eg coins, is even easier to validate. Arguably gold is even more likely to become the basis of an economy in future, because of its past. It has a track record. People know it works. They'll expect it.

I think in an initial crisis, people will hope it will end in a few weeks or months, and even uneducated ones will know they'll be able to sell gold for a decent value when its over. So there will be a viable gold economy quite quickly. There's no reason why that shouldn't last, as long as there are humans living above subsistence level to trade with.

Interesting take on the perspective.

One of the things that's been mentioned several times on this thread is the usefullness of jewelry. Maybe it would be more worthwhile to stock that than coins?
Posted by: hikermor

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/11/13 01:15 PM

Just a few tidbits of my wife's family history that might be pertinent here. Her father was born near Ulan Bator, Outer Mongolia, of Russian parents who were leaving Russia as a result of the 1918 revolution. Moving east through Siberia, one of the most useful barter items for food were sewing needles!

On the other hand, the valuables they were carrying came in handy when,closely pusued by the PHRASECENSOREDPOSTERSHOULDKNOWBETTER. forces, the sled containing the family jewels overturned,diverting their pursuers, and giving them time to escape..

Figure out what commodity will be scarce and valued, remembering that gold, etc. have a long history and plenty of admirers......

Footnote: Geez, that didn't take long... I had no idea the censors were up and on the job so early
Posted by: MDinana

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/11/13 02:13 PM

Originally Posted By: hikermor
Just a few tidbits of my wife's family history that might be pertinent here. Her father was born near Ulan Bator, Outer Mongolia, of Russian parents who were leaving Russia as a result of the 1918 revolution. Moving east through Siberia, one of the most useful barter items for food were sewing needles!

On the other hand, the valuables they were carrying came in handy when,closely pusued by the -------- forces, the sled containing the family jewels overturned,diverting their pursuers, and giving them time to escape..

Figure out what commodity will be scarce and valued, remembering that gold, etc. have a long history and plenty of admirers......

Footnote: Geez, that didn't take long... I had no idea the censors were up and on the job so early

No kidding. I can get some ambien if someone needs it. laugh

Now I really want to know what you called them. I can't imagine any of the terms in my head are inappropriate. Especially since we're talking about history, unless you were using some derogatory slang word.
Posted by: Jeanette_Isabelle

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/11/13 02:29 PM

Originally Posted By: MDinana
Now I really want to know what you called them. I can't imagine any of the terms in my head are inappropriate. Especially since we're talking about history, unless you were using some derogatory slang word.

He referred to a movement to create a classless, moneyless social order structured upon common ownership of the means of production.

Jeanette Isabelle
Posted by: Russ

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/11/13 02:32 PM

I'm guessing it starts with "C" and ends with "ist". or were they called Bolsheviks at the time. Regardless, as used it's not really a political comment.
Posted by: hikermor

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/11/13 03:08 PM

Originally Posted By: Jeanette_Isabelle

He referred to a movement to create a classless, moneyless social order structured upon common ownership of the means of production.


I had no idea I was so learned,but, of course, you are absolutely correct...
Posted by: chaosmagnet

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/11/13 05:45 PM

When you see "PHRASECENSOREDPOSTERSSHOULDKNOWBETTER" replacing something you wrote, that is an automated system on the board and not something in the control of me or the other deputies.



chaosmagnet
Posted by: MDinana

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/11/13 07:21 PM

Originally Posted By: chaosmagnet
When you see "PHRASECENSOREDPOSTERSSHOULDKNOWBETTER" replacing something you wrote, that is an automated system on the board and not something in the control of me or the other deputies.



chaosmagnet

Thanks for the insight. Censoring a political affiliation used in a historical context would be pretty heavy handed; glad you're not!
Posted by: chaosmagnet

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 10/11/13 07:46 PM

Originally Posted By: MDinana
Thanks for the insight. Censoring a political affiliation used in a historical context would be pretty heavy handed; glad you're not!


My pleasure.

When I edit a post that wasn't mine to begin with, I use this color and I mark the post as edited. I believe the other deputies do the same.

In addition to the movement to create a classless, moneyless social order structured upon common ownership of the means of production (thank you, Jeanette_Isabelle!) there are several other words that are banned by the automated system. Some are replaced as you saw above, others are replaced with "[censored]" or "SomePolitician".

While I could find a way to share the list with you, I won't. Help me and the other deputies out by not trying to figure out each entry.


chaosmagnet
Posted by: Brangdon

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 11/02/13 04:00 PM

Originally Posted By: MDinana
One of the things that's been mentioned several times on this thread is the usefullness of jewelry. Maybe it would be more worthwhile to stock that than coins?
I'm not sure which messages you're referring too. Diamonds have industrial uses, but they don't use gem-quality ones for that (and gold/silver have industrial uses too).

As a medium of exchange, gemstones are less convenient because they are less standard. The value of a diamond depends on its clarity, colour and cut as well as its weight, and you really need an expert to evaluate those. The value of gold - even gold jewellery - only depends on the weight of (pure) gold in it.
Posted by: benjammin

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 11/02/13 07:45 PM

I harken back to the days of Mountain men and the Hudson's bay company and Rendevous.

Barter seems to be the fallback market, with practical goods being the more common exchange mecium. Precious metal minted into coin of the realm still seems to be a viable currency if one must travel and still do business. Ammunition might be suitable for a time, but it's purpose predisposes it to eventual consumption. Other items being more awkward to ferry about, it seems inevitable that some currency, not easily manipulated, fairly securable, durable, and easily recognizable, would have to manifest sooner or later.

I envision that once the initial shock of crisis is over, people will gather to exchange what they have in abundance with what they need or are want for. If folks cannot find the items they desire at one location, they are bound to travel, and will not be willing to encumber much. For this reason, I suspect a sachet of gems and coins, as in old times, will take the place of sacks of grain and sides of beef. Money is just too convenient an exchange medium, but people will not accept notes after this.

Gold and silver cannot be counterfeited. An ounce of either can be proofed readily enough, and once a minted coin receives a proof mark from a reputable local agent, it should exchange fairly routinely. In fact, for this reason junk silver is a good investment pre-collapse. It is already proofed satisfactorily that anyone can determine it's relative value. It is in portions that allow for easy whole division for market. I can easily imagine that in short order you will find traveling vendors peddling goods by coach such that he can deliver to a neighborhood things a man afoot would have trouble retrieving from any distance. While he may find barter items suitable to stock (produce from a home garden, tools, trinkets, and so on), he will also be quite interested in exchanging for common and highly fungible resources.

It may not happen right away, but depending on how bad things get and how long they stay that way, the practicality of secure currency seems inevitable. There may be a time when only material goods will trade fairly. But sooner or later, some standard must be recognized and adopted.
Posted by: Paul810

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 11/03/13 12:25 AM

My father used to do work for a Jewish family that came over from Germany right after WWII. Supposedly, before things started going south for their people, they got wind of it and buried their valuables. Mostly diamonds and jewelry.

Once they got liberated from the camps, the remaining family members dug up what was buried and used that come over to the USA and start a building development company. My father can remember their father walking around at the end of the work day (with the numbers from the camp still tattooed on his hand), picking up bent nails, scrap wood, broken pieces of pipe, whatever was left on the site. A quiet unassuming man who didn't waste a single thing.

He watched their wealth grow and grow and today I know one of the sons from that family is worth around a billion dollars and is part owner of a professional football team.

Seeing that had such an impact on my father that he made sure I knew that story by heart.

Not only can you overcome dire situations if you stick together as a family..... but, if you work hard and try to waste as little as possible it might just work out for ya.

Plus, if you do end up with a little extra money here and there, it might not be a bad idea to have a little bag of diamonds and gold hidden away.
Posted by: Mark_R

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 11/03/13 08:00 AM

Originally Posted By: benjammin
Gold and silver cannot be counterfeited. An ounce of either can be proofed readily enough, and once a minted coin receives a proof mark from a reputable local agent, it should exchange fairly routinely.


Actually, fake precious metals a already a bit of a problem. http://blog.jewelrywarehouse.com/2012/06/19/tuesday-jewelry-tips/
Nonmagnetic, and with the correct density, hardness, and a thin plating of the real stuff is going to be beyond most peoples skills to detect. There will never be a shortage of greedy sociopaths.

As far as a barter system: in the event of an economic collapse, skills, services, and odd goods will probably be the "coin of the realm".
Posted by: benjammin

Re: No politics please - Upcoming furlough - 11/04/13 12:44 AM

Yes, so the ability to positively test a coin for metal content will be of some significance. For the average joe, there'd be no realistic way to make such a determination on raw metal, so a proof mark would be about as good as they could hope for.

Not too practical to travel 30 miles by foot to do work for half a dozen different people over the course of a week or more, and get paid in chickens, pigs, sacks of grain, or cords of wood. There are so many problems with that scenario, and besides, that's not how most of the crops, herds and flocks would be disbursed anyways. Far more practical to accumulate credit so that when the produce/livestock do come to market you can acquire as much as you need at an optimum exchange rate.

Direct exchange of goods and services can work. If you have a strong, well rounded community it can be viable for a while, but mobility and convenience should eventually dominate people's methods.