The Day After Disaster - History Channel tonight

Posted by: Dagny

The Day After Disaster - History Channel tonight - 09/28/09 11:22 PM

I somehow missed hearing anything about this show. Was just sitting here paying cursory attention to The History Channel and suddenly they're nuking my neighborhood.

Pleasant dreams tonight.

http://www.history.com/shows.do?action=detail&episodeId=481864

Against a morning sky, a mushroom cloud spirals heavenward. A nuclear bomb has detonated in the heart of Washington D.C., incinerating 15,000 residents in just 15 seconds. More than 50% of the population living within a 1/2 mile radius of the explosion is either dead or severely injured. The next 24 hours will determine whether the rest of the city lives or dies. To survive this horrific ordeal they will need a plan. And lucky for us--there is one. But will it work? For the first time on television, the Department of Homeland Security reveals the most detailed and comprehensive plan to save America should terrorists go nuclear. This chilling two-hour special delves into the complex and highly secretive world of disaster planning.

Rating: TVPG

Running Time: 120 minutes
Posted by: Dagny

Re: The Day After Disaster - History Channel tonight - 09/28/09 11:28 PM

Looks like they're covering the gamut: Continuity-of-government (COG), Continuity of operations (COOP), civilian casualties, nuclear fallout, mass exodus, clogged roads, thousands instantly blinded with burned retinas (many permanently -- "the light of a million suns").

Even the psychological impact to the country and around the world (bringing to mind some phone calls I received on the evening of 9/11).

Assumption of a second bomb somewhere in the country. Extremely detailed description of the ramifications of radiation on a human body. This is a very thorough show.

It's a DHS document come to life.

We won't be evacuating in this scenario.

Am having a strong urge to go camping.

This makes me want to move either one thousand miles away, or half a mile closer.
Posted by: Desperado

Re: The Day After Disaster - History Channel tonight - 09/28/09 11:54 PM

Look at it this way...

If you actually SEE the mushroom cloud, you are already ahead of the ones who didn't. They are now permanent shadows on the concrete. Then you just have to get the heck out of Dodge City.
Posted by: Dagny

Re: The Day After Disaster - History Channel tonight - 09/29/09 12:02 AM

We won't see the cloud. We'd be the cloud. Whether at home or work. That'd make us luckier than thousands downwind.

This is going to prompt another "why the H am I still here?" session.

They're now discussing the nuke search teams that will fan out across the country looking for additional threats.

This is fascinating for those who've contemplated the worst man-made scenario.

There is enough nuclear material around the world to make 250,000 nuclear bombs.

Posted by: Dagny

Re: The Day After Disaster - History Channel tonight - 09/29/09 12:05 AM


What would you all do if DC were nuked tomorrow?

Would you leave work and go home and hunker down?

Would you head for the hills on the chance that your city was next?


Posted by: Dagny

Re: The Day After Disaster - History Channel tonight - 09/29/09 12:19 AM

This show even explores whether parents who survive the blast should try to pick their kids up at school.

And whether to shelter-in for a few days or try to evacuate.

Whether martial law should be declared.

Threat of anarchy in other major cities.

If I were in New York City that day I'd sure be trying to get away, upwind.



Posted by: scafool

Re: The Day After Disaster - History Channel tonight - 09/29/09 12:23 AM

I wonder why they figure Washington would be the primary target.
Politicians are easy to replace, they should be replaced at each election anyhow.
The business leaders are not so easy to replace, and technical experts like university researchers are even less replaceable.
Surely any sane terrorist would prefer to damage the economy and cause political unrest instead of eliminating the people they are trying to negotiate with.
Posted by: Dagny

Re: The Day After Disaster - History Channel tonight - 09/29/09 12:25 AM


Precautionary mass evacuations of New York City, Los Angeles and Chicago.

Posted by: Dagny

Re: The Day After Disaster - History Channel tonight - 09/29/09 12:41 AM

Originally Posted By: scafool
I wonder why they figure Washington would be the primary target.
Politicians are easy to replace, they should be replaced at each election anyhow.
The business leaders are not so easy to replace, and technical experts like university researchers are even less replaceable.
Surely any sane terrorist would prefer to damage the economy and cause political unrest instead of eliminating the people they are trying to negotiate with.


When you want to harm a nation, destroy it's capital and its government leaders. It's fundamental.

The current crop of terrorists don't seem interested in negotiating.

Business leaders are replaced all the time and they don't all live and work in one city. Technical experts -- we can issue more visas to those who can't telecommute from India. They aren't concentrated in one area, either.

The only other target that comes close to the destruction of the federal government infrastructure would be New York City and it's financial infrastructure.

Congress would not be easy to replace. There is not a uniform system for replacing members now when seats open up due to death or resignation. Since 9/11, this has been the subject of legislative proposals and hearings but has not been settled.

The Supreme Court can only be confirmed by the Senate which no longer would exist. In a weekday blast scenario, POTUS and the VPOTUS may not survive.

Destruction of the Pentagon would be a grievous blow.

An expert on the show just said there are not enough "burn beds" in the entire nation to cope with an attack on just one city.

America would go on but it would be a generation before things were normal again. Rebuilding DC would be a heck of a stimulus project.




Posted by: Dagny

Re: The Day After Disaster - History Channel tonight - 09/29/09 12:53 AM


300,000 dead.

And it's just a Hiroshima-sized nuke.

Posted by: Dagny

Re: The Day After Disaster - History Channel tonight - 09/29/09 12:55 AM

The political aftermath. This show covers it all.

What would the next Patriot Act look like?

Having seen that kind of carnage, what measures might Americans demand and tolerate to avoid a repeat?

Would we so diminish democratic freedoms in the interest of security?

Hard to imagine the grief, anger and fear across the country. Orders of magnitude beyond 9/11, which was profound.

Interesting psychological impact.

Posted by: Desperado

Re: The Day After Disaster - History Channel tonig - 09/29/09 01:01 AM

Originally Posted By: Dagny
We won't see the cloud. We'd be the cloud. Whether at home or work. That'd make us luckier than thousands downwind.

This is going to prompt another "why the H am I still here?" session.

They're now discussing the nuke search teams that will fan out across the country looking for additional threats.

This is fascinating for those who've contemplated the worse man-made scenario.

There is enough nuclear material around the world to make 250,000 nuclear bombs.


I trained with one of those teams SRT group in the early 90's. Impressive folks looking for a needle in one hell of a big haystack.
Posted by: Dagny

Re: The Day After Disaster - History Channel tonig - 09/29/09 01:08 AM

Originally Posted By: Desperado

I trained with one of those teams SRT group in the early 90's. Impressive folks looking for a needle in one hell of a big haystack.


Heck of a job. Trolling with a briefcase-sized radiation detector, hoping you never detect anything. God bless 'em if they ever do.

I think a dirty nuke is far more likely than this History Channel scenario.

And still it would be very disruptive. Thankfully, not as deadly.

Then I could worry about evacuating and that's why I keep my gas tank topped off.





Posted by: Russ

Re: The Day After Disaster - History Channel tonight - 09/29/09 01:16 AM

Thanks Dagny, DVR is set.
Posted by: big_al

The Day After - 09/29/09 01:23 AM

" The Day After Deaster " is on the history channel tonight at 8 pm PST
Posted by: Russ

Re: The Day After - 09/29/09 01:39 AM

Already being discussed at: http://forums.equipped.org/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=183449#Post183449
Posted by: Desperado

Re: The Day After Disaster - History Channel tonig - 09/29/09 02:40 AM

We just trained with them, and we were more in the "go take the material back" line of work. That was directly related to the make the bad guy stop breathing line of work.

If you know what I mean...

NEST did the "looking/Finding"

SRT did the "I need you to stop breathing" part of the work...
Posted by: LoneWolf

Re: The Day After Disaster - History Channel tonight - 09/29/09 10:36 AM

I didn't see this post until this morning so I missed the show. I was busy last night anyway. It looks like it will be broadcast again on Oct. 4 if there are others like me who are interested but missed it.

LW
Posted by: Leigh_Ratcliffe

Re: The Day After Disaster - History Channel tonight - 09/29/09 10:54 AM

Originally Posted By: Dagny
Originally Posted By: scafool
I wonder why they figure Washington would be the primary target.
Politicians are easy to replace, they should be replaced at each election anyhow.
The business leaders are not so easy to replace, and technical experts like university researchers are even less replaceable.
Surely any sane terrorist would prefer to damage the economy and cause political unrest instead of eliminating the people they are trying to negotiate with.


When you want to harm a nation, destroy it's capital and its government leaders. It's fundamental.

The current crop of terrorists don't seem interested in negotiating.

Business leaders are replaced all the time and they don't all live and work in one city. Technical experts -- we can issue more visas to those who can't telecommute from India. They aren't concentrated in one area, either.

The only other target that comes close to the destruction of the federal government infrastructure would be New York City and it's financial infrastructure.

Congress would not be easy to replace. There is not a uniform system for replacing members now when seats open up due to death or resignation. Since 9/11, this has been the subject of legislative proposals and hearings but has not been settled.

The Supreme Court can only be confirmed by the Senate which no longer would exist. In a weekday blast scenario, POTUS and the VPOTUS may not survive.





Not quite.

A decapitation strike is effective in a non-democratic society.

However, in a democratic society (like America) killing the POTUS and VPOTUS and most of the Senate & Congress will result in the Presidency devolving to the next lawful successor. Who can be sworn in by any Federal Judge.

The new POTUS could, by Presidential Order, then order that the individual states appoint Senators (according to the laws of the individual states)for the purpose of reconstituting the Senate and a Supreme Court (probably from the most senior surviving judges) and ensure that elections to replace congress are held "at the first reasonable moment".


One also suspects that he would also order Nuclear strikes at all the most likely culprits.

It also has to be said that acts of terrorism do not frighten or intimidate democratic society's to any great degree.

They do, however, [censored] the aforementioned society's off.

Now that is something to be frightened of.







Posted by: Am_Fear_Liath_Mor

Re: The Day After Disaster - History Channel tonight - 09/29/09 11:45 AM

Quote:
One also suspects that he would also order Nuclear strikes at all the most likely culprits.


Whether they are innocent or not, now that is scary. One hopes any replacement President would take an internal audit of the strategic nuclear stockpile before giving that executive order, which would be difficult if the DoD in Washington has been flattened.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gXY3kuDvSU

Posted by: Leigh_Ratcliffe

Re: The Day After Disaster - History Channel tonight - 09/29/09 12:30 PM

Originally Posted By: Am_Fear_Liath_Mor
Quote:
One also suspects that he would also order Nuclear strikes at all the most likely culprits.


Whether they are innocent or not, now that is scary. One hopes any replacement President would take an internal audit of the strategic nuclear stockpile before giving that executive order, which would be difficult if the DoD in Washington has been flattened.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gXY3kuDvSU



It's called: Massive & Disproportionate Response.

It's a variation on Mutual Assured Destruction.

And no, destruction of the DoD would not prevent a Nuclear Launch. There is Cheyenne Mountain or what ever the current equivalent is.
Posted by: scafool

Re: The Day After Disaster - History Channel tonight - 09/29/09 12:54 PM

How The World Ends

http://www.albinoblacksheep.com/flash/end
Posted by: Leigh_Ratcliffe

Re: The Day After Disaster - History Channel tonight - 09/29/09 01:05 PM

Originally Posted By: Am_Fear_Liath_Mor
Quote:
One also suspects that he would also order Nuclear strikes at all the most likely culprits.


Whether they are innocent or not, now that is scary. One hopes any replacement President would take an internal audit of the strategic nuclear stockpile before giving that executive order, which would be difficult if the DoD in Washington has been flattened.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gXY3kuDvSU



A coupe?

Now there is a nasty thought. frown
Posted by: Dagny

Re: The Day After Disaster - History Channel tonight - 09/29/09 11:36 PM

Presidential succession, the ability of Congress to legislate (including vital emergency appropriations) and the Supreme Court's capacity to achieve the required quorum to function are areas of extreme concern to those knowledgeable of continuity of government issues. Here are some excellent resources, including more chilling scenarios.

If DC were hit on a weekday when Congress and the Supreme Court were in session and when POTUS and VPOTUS were in town, then it would be chaos for quite awhile -- just when the nation most needed its government to make momentous decisions.

http://www.continuityofgovernment.org/

http://www.continuityofgovernment.org/SecondReport.pdf

...recommended a constitutional amendment that would provide for filling mass vacancies or mass incapacitations in the U.S. House and Senate through temporary appointments until
special elections could be held to fill the vacancies. without such an amendment, an attack might cause Congress to fall below the quorum requirement for conducting business and potentially disable Congress for many months until the numerous vacancies could be filled.


...the current system would be inadequate in the face of a catastrophic attack that would kill or incapacitate multiple individuals in the line of succession. The current system must be corrected to ensure continuity in the
executive branch.


http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/crs/rs21089.pdf

The Legislative Branch. The Constitution provides that in the event of vacancies in the representation from any state, the governor of the affected state shall issue writs of election to fill such vacancies or, in the case of a Senate vacancy, may, if so empowered by state law, make a temporary appointment until an election may be held, in accordance
with state law.

The Judicial Branch. The Constitution establishes the Supreme Court of the United States and prescribes the statutory creation of inferior federal courts, but is silent regarding the continued functioning of the federal judiciary during or after an incapacitating catastrophe. In locales of the United
States where federal courts could not function due to an emergency, the President might temporarily declare martial law and vest minimal trial court authority in military tribunals convened by commanding officers in the field dispatched to enforce federal law.


http://www.aei.org/article/29045

September 11, 2001, should have been a wake-up call. If United 93 had not been delayed and left on time, its passengers would not have known they were on a suicide mission, and the plane would likely have hit the Capitol Dome that morning, wreaking havoc and perhaps destroying Congress for many months, leaving the country with a form of martial law.

The fact is, the Presidential Succession Act of 1947 is woefully inadequate to the modern threats we face, and Congress needs urgently to reconsider it. At the same time, we could have very serious questions of legality and struggles among important actors, in the fog of war and the aftermath of a devastating attack, over who is or should be acting president, and whether a rump group could actually serve as a legitimate Congress, including perhaps choosing a Speaker who would become acting president. Here, we need a functioning Supreme Court to make key judgments of legitimacy, and there is no plan to reconstitute the court if it falls below its statutory quorum of six justices.

Posted by: Desperado

Re: The Day After Disaster - History Channel tonig - 09/29/09 11:41 PM

Anyone remember Alexander Haig the day President Ronald Reagan was shot. Seems he was a tad confused on the issue of Continuity of Government also...
Posted by: thseng

Re: The Day After Disaster - History Channel tonig - 09/30/09 12:00 AM

Jack Ryan for President!
Posted by: Dagny

Re: The Day After Disaster - History Channel tonig - 09/30/09 12:09 AM

Originally Posted By: thseng
Jack Ryan for President!


Whenever I've heard that failure of imagination on the part of the government made 9/11 possible, I think of Tom Clancy.

He imagined such a thing.

I was on a plane to the west coast in August 2001, reading a Tom Clancy novel, and my seatmate and I had a long discussion about his attack scenario on DC in "Debt of Honor."

I won't say exactly what it was in case someone here hasn't read it.

Posted by: Desperado

Re: The Day After Disaster - History Channel tonig - 09/30/09 12:16 AM

Thread Hijacking in progress.....

Anyone who reads Clancy notice where Iran's newest announced Nuke facility is?

Did you read "Sum Of All Fears"?


........Thread Hijacking Complete
Posted by: ki4buc

Re: The Day After Disaster - History Channel tonight - 09/30/09 11:44 PM

My only "problem" with the series was the complete spin on what the National Response Framework (NRF) is, and how the National Planning Scenarios (NPS) relate. The NRF is not a "plan for an attack", it is a "response framework for all-hazards", NOT just a nuclear strike, accident, or dirty-bomb.

The show also gives the impression the documents they show are somehow "secret" or "restricted" or "unpublished". If they don't show it on the show, it's not public. These are "strategic" plans, and anything remotely "tactical" probably won't be available.

Here they are, publicly accessible:

National Response Framework Portal (FEMA Site - Tons of Info)

Planning Guidance for Response to a Nuclear Detonation (from Armed Forces Radiobiology Research Institute)

National Planning Scenarios (from Florida DEM)
Posted by: LED

Re: The Day After Disaster - History Channel tonig - 10/01/09 07:37 AM

Originally Posted By: Desperado
Thread Hijacking in progress.....

Anyone who reads Clancy notice where Iran's newest announced Nuke facility is?

Did you read "Sum Of All Fears"?


........Thread Hijacking Complete


Isn't Tom Clancy a fiction writer?
Posted by: Jeff_M

Re: The Day After Disaster - History Channel tonight - 10/01/09 08:29 AM

Originally Posted By: Leigh_Ratcliffe

It's called: Massive & Disproportionate Response.

It's a variation on Mutual Assured Destruction.

And no, destruction of the DoD would not prevent a Nuclear Launch. There is Cheyenne Mountain or what ever the current equivalent is.


Any one SSBN Captain is sufficient.
Posted by: jcurphy

Re: The Day After Disaster - History Channel tonight - 10/02/09 10:13 AM

A tangent, but has anyone read any of the Out of the Ashes books by William Johnstone? I was forced to read one in a political science course in college... pretty radical, but interesting read
Posted by: Dagny

Re: The Day After Disaster - History Channel tonig - 10/02/09 12:46 PM

Originally Posted By: LED


Isn't Tom Clancy a fiction writer?



Yes. One whose first big hit, The Hunt for Red October, established him as an author who did meticulous research.

Debt of Honor - which many cited on 9/11 as presaging the attacks - was published in 1994.

I haven't read any of his books since 9/11, but am going to take a look now at what he's published since then.

He lives in Maryland and so is in proximity to a lot of military experts and intelligence analysts.

Posted by: oldsoldier

Re: The Day After Disaster - History Channel tonig - 10/02/09 12:49 PM

Clancy researches almost everything he writes-I recall reading a bio of his life, and how he spent time with sub crews, special ops folks, spies, etc, to get their take on life, so he could write as realistically as possible.
Posted by: Dagny

Re: The Day After Disaster - History Channel tonig - 10/02/09 06:56 PM

An e-mail today from the DC Alert system. Thankfully, they've gotten better about letting residents know about these practice sessions.


NORAD excercise

North American Aerospace Defense Command will conduct exercise flights Oct. 3 in the skies over the National Capital Region (Washington, D.C.). The flights will take place in the late morning and early afternoon and people can expect to hear and see NORAD fighter aircraft as they practice their intercept and identification procedures.


Posted by: benjammin

Re: The Day After Disaster - History Channel tonig - 10/07/09 09:49 PM

I doubt very much that such an attack would paralyze our ops. POTUS and VPOTUS are only the top dogs that issue orders, but orders can come at several levels below them. No one is going to just sit around and wait for someone at the new top echelon to hand down directives. Military ops get their marching orders from executive staff, and don't need Pentagon to give them the go ahead on such things as defensive adjustments and activations, launches, counterattacks, patrol mods etc. Tac Ops don't suddenly stop just because the top dog gets eliminated, we don't have that sort of command and control structure.

Likewise, most of the commerce and civilian ops would continue to be governed at the local level. Intrastate and interstate commerce/transport would continue to be run by the state governments and local municipalities. Some mass transit might be affected, and utility controls might be adjusted from the federal level, but again, this doesn't require top level executive management. Plans are already in place to deal with such contingencies, so decision making can stay at a lower, more regional and responsive level.

An attack on DC would not put us in the sort of paralyzing chaos that puts our country in jeopardy. It would create some problems, but we can't be shut down that easily.

There will have to be some adjustments made eventually, but the nature of our society pretty much negates the intended immediate affects of an attack on our central government.
Posted by: comms

Re: The Day After Disaster - History Channel tonig - 10/26/09 03:40 PM

I Finally got a chance to watch this uninterrupted this morning. Good grief, what sober television to watch at 0500 on a Monday.

In a strange twist I also watched the latest Surviving Disaster epi yesterday which dealt with the same subject.

While there is so much in both shows to digest and consider, what I can control is what I can do to be ready, the govt and 1st responders will work off their plans and me and my family must work off ours.

Based off our families home and travel patterns during a week in my city, and the official estimates of about 20 minutes from blast to fallout (radiation concerns)I am going to just add a couple of more items to our vehicles BOBs which are multi use:

More N95 respirator masks
More food for the baby and boy.
A bit more water for washing off.

The threat is what it is. Water and food won't go to waste. Even just helping a stranded driver or cyclist in everyday situations around town.

Something I had not considered but its not a bad idea, is that my wife uses a large off roading stroller, it's always in the car and she can put more gear in that and less off her back.

Plus my 6 YO is now certainly old enough to carry his own BOB up to about ten pounds.
Posted by: UpstateTom

Re: The Day After Disaster - History Channel tonight - 10/27/09 04:44 AM

Originally Posted By: Leigh_Ratcliffe

It also has to be said that acts of terrorism do not frighten or intimidate democratic society's to any great degree.

They do, however, [censored] the aforementioned society's off.

Now that is something to be frightened of.



I read your post and smiled, then noticed your location and doubled it.

Free people are drawn together by attacks on their country. Burning London as a way to break the spirit of the British was a bad plan, as was attacking Pearl Harbor and the attacks of 9/11. For good or bad, we're brought together and inspired to great violence when annoyed. We also carry on.

Our biggest dangers are the same as they were 200 years ago - not from other nations, but by those who would trade a bit of liberty for a bit of security, to paraphrase somebody a lot smarter than I.

Posted by: LED

Re: The Day After Disaster - History Channel tonight - 10/27/09 05:18 AM

Originally Posted By: UpstateTom

Free people are drawn together by attacks on their country.


It may be more accurate to say, "people are drawn together by attacks on their country." Makes sense if you think about it. For example, lets say we're living under a dictatorship. Even though it would suck, I doubt people would respond positively to an attack by say, Mexico or Canada.
Posted by: Leigh_Ratcliffe

Re: The Day After Disaster - History Channel tonight - 10/27/09 11:31 AM

Dictatorships tend to be "economical" with what they tell their citizens. The response of the citizens (or should that be heliot's?)would be aggressive but would probably stop after the dictatorship is overthrown and they get the opportunity to compare the conduct of the "aggressor" to that of the dictatorship.
Posted by: oldsoldier

Re: The Day After Disaster - History Channel tonight - 10/27/09 01:17 PM

Wasnt it written somewhere that a person that ends up a dictator was once a popular choice? Or something along those lines?
Posted by: Desperado

Re: The Day After Disaster - History Channel tonight - 10/27/09 01:52 PM

"O" yeah, I heard that somewhere too........
Posted by: LED

Re: The Day After Disaster - History Channel tonight - 10/28/09 03:02 AM

Isn't there also quote about giving up liberty for a little temporary safety? whistle Rome wasn't built in a day, and neither was the Executive.
Posted by: Redbeard

Re: The Day After Disaster - History Channel tonight - 10/28/09 03:18 AM

i believe it was Ben Franklin...and it went something like this...

"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both. "

the framers of our constitution were some amazing men. Ben Franklin and Thomas Jefferson are 2 of my favorites.