Popular Mechanics predicts 5 most likely disasters

"5 Disasters Coming Soon If We Don’t Rebuild U.S. Infrastructure
In the wake of the Minneapolis bridge collapse, the author—a national security expert and senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations—called on Congress to stop turning an “irrational and reckless” blind eye to our crumbling public foundations. Here he reports on more cracks in American hardware that urgently need attention."

http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/worst_case_scenarios/4227310.html



New York is in the top 5. Guess I better buy more gear.

But seriously, three of these disasters are predicated on natural events. Don't know that we can make cities earthquake proof any more than the designers of the Titanic could make her unsinkable. That's why we prepare for the worst. Sometimes prevention isn't possible.

Good ole' Cali; I get 2.
I guess I need even more stored water.

Always good to indulge in some rational thinking about disasters:

My expected top 5, in no particular order -

Winter storm, Heat wave, extended traffic gridlock, major loss of services (power, water, internet), other

You can't prevent a hurricane or an earthquake but you can certainly mitigate the damage it would cause.

IMO part of the reason New Orleans was so badly hurt by Katrina was the lack of a "defense in depth". Everything depended on the levees holding; once the levees failed, the rest of the city had no protection. It was the classic example of a Gary Larson "Far Side" igloo (hard and crunchy on the outside, soft and chewy on the inside).

"Always good to indulge in some rational thinking about disasters" ...

Where is the fun in that. LOL.

I get a good chuckle surfing the various "survivalist" forums. They are awash in improbable. Global nuclear war, millions dropping dead from a super-bug, zombies rising from the graves and the majority of the population deciding that common sense and civilization are not the way to go. Improbable events make for good stories.

The more probable events are natural events we know about, slow downturns in human events and localized man-made disasters. These don't make for good stories. In part because they don't lead to events which allow a comic book hero to function in the normal comic book ways. Blizzards and recession doesn't lend many opportunities for righteous and decisive gun-play and gratuitous violence.

Hunkering down, being reasonable and husbanding resources just doesn't have a heroic air. Of course what it lacks in heroic flare and it makes up in reality and effectiveness.

Which comes down to the simple question: Why are you into survival. Are you reality based and looking for practical solutions are you looking for some ego stroking posturing with an option for playing the hero.

Yeah - right now (and I live in NYC) - MOST of my effort is going into Personal health (I have a major health issue right now - 4 weeks in bed - joy - at least I have a laptop to keep me company), and then into recession. After that is blizards, as that is the season coming up - next spring it'll be back to hurricanes

Health and wellbeing are essential. I don't care if you have a warehouse full of supplies if your not essentially healthy it isn't going to do you much good. You don't need to by a Olympic grade athlete but everyone needs a core level of basic physical capability.

I hear you on the recession, blizzard, hurricane thing. Not many blizzards down here in FL but we are one of the few states where an entire county has been given a mandatory evacuation order because of fire. Perhaps California shares that distinction.

Recession, storms in the summer, fires and hurricanes in the winter and flooding just about any time are real issues down here. I don't think there is any location in the US entirely free of hazards.

I think if everybody did a individual threat assessment there would be some variations in them. Here in Louisiana the threat from hurricanes would vary depending on how far inland one is and what your flood zone looks like.

Personal health issues are a very valid threat to be assessed and addressed, and you are wise to focus on that and plan around it.

I chuckled at Homeland Security after 911 when they made a big push for everyone to have a "box" of supplies.

All over the US a lot of folks do that:
Hawaii, Gulf and East Coasts = we call it hurricane season.
Midwest = tornado shelters and blizzards.
North = blizzards.
West Coasts= quakes.

If you have one covered you've pretty much got all of it covered for the most part.

Getting people to build on what they already know is best.

Sorry to hear you're ill and hope you get to feeling better.

Everyone should have a rough idea (planned and written out might be better, like Blast's Binder) of a "comprehensive" emergency plan.

If you have to evacuate, where would you go in all 4 directions? If you have to shelter-in-place, how many days of food do you have?

It doesn't matter if it's a hurricane, wildfire, blackout, or "matters of internal security", the preparedness is the same.

Add earthquakes to the Midwest as well, the New Madrid Seismic zone is still very active with more than 4000 events since monitoring began in the area in 1974. The last big one (8+ in 1811-12) rang the church bells in Boston, the devastation of a quake of that magnatude today would be catastrophic.

USGS

Here on teh CA coast, i live far enough away from teh ocean to not have to worry, but perhaps i was on the beach, and a tsunami hit (very possible) i would have nothing!!! I mean, really how much do you carry when your surfing, im thinking about getting a dive knife to take woth me to the beach, any thoughts??

My thought is that your post is mostly off-topic.

sory!

The mega hurricane does not worry me that much, unless it occurs because of a suddent change in the course of a storm. When the storm is heading for Long Island and then veers toward NYC, it will be a very bad situation. Experts claim that we are overdue, but NYC is a tough place for a hurricane to get on any normal path. Once above Hatteras, they tend to all head east, due to the prevailing winds and the coriolos effect. To get to NYC, it would need to move north with the Gulfstream, then head to the west. That's not a common path. It is probably going to need a Bermuda high that shifts to the north and keeps the storm from heading east. But the Bermuda high would also need to have either shifted east or be rather weak. A strong Bermuda high will drive a storm ashore much south of NYC.

The 1938 Storm passed 55 miles to the east of NYC. It was on a path created by circumstances like those I mention above.

Much more likely than a mega hurricane is a mega nor'Easter, like the so-called "Perfect Storm."

I think my biggest fear for an unprepared east coat would be if half of the doom and gloom about the Cumbra Vieja Volcano turned out to be true. Hopefully, the chances are slim. I've seen predictions of a tsumani 200 feet high striking the U.S. East Coast, within 7 hours after a massive landslide, with half of a mountain falling into the Atlantic. Many of the predcitions seem to exaggerate, but I think you need to prepare for the worst.

An evacuation from NYC would be nuts. Normal rush hours are bumper to bumper. In any serious evacuation for a hurricane, many more people would be leaving Long Island. Everyone would be heading to the north, and all roads leaving Manhattan and Long Island would be packed much worse than anything you see in the southeast for a hurricane. Trying to get anywhere and have gas to get anywhere would be difficult. Leave early.

Even more likely than these; drought, tornado, blizzard, heat wave and power out. Not only likely, but they happen every year. I plan for the most likely events...

IMHO the only smart way of prioritizing is to prepare for the most likely events first. And work from fast, simple and cheap to slow, complicated and expensive.

I told a friend that if he really wanted to save his life he should wear his seatbelt and put a mat down in the shower. He started wearing his seatbelt after his truck skidded and he lost control because he couldn't keep his butt behind the wheel. He drove into the ditch at 50mph and came within 50' of the sudden stop from dead-ending into a culvert. A stop with him going through the windshield.

He came back the next day still rattled from what might have happened. He has worn the seatbelt since then.

I have long advocated a 'start small and work your way your way up slowly' approach. Of course the die-hards loudly declare that if your not preparing for a global nuclear war your not a 'survivalist'. Which is pretty funny because, given the slack-jawed gun-fondling nature of most survivalists, I had never wanted associate myself with the groups or apply the term to myself.

That isn't to say I haven't picked up up a few pointers from survivalists when they were lucid and talking sense about practical matters of survival field craft or first-aid. I pick up pearls where I find them. While ignoring their politics, conspiracy theories, gun porn and alarmist rants. Many of them are good people. Wrapped a little tight and confused about their priorities but good folks.

Funny thing is is that if you prepare for the known and expected challenges your always going to have the rare and unexpected disaster pretty well covered also. Trapped and isolated without power or running water after a hurricane has a lot in common with trapped and isolated because of a invasion of evil two-headed aliens. Either way you still have to eat, drink, stay warm.