How long would it last?

On one thread I asked about travel during a long term civil break down. I from the replies I got idea the majority of us think that civil break down would be a short-term deal and plan to that conclusion. Looking at the wide spread effects on this country's infrastructure that has occurred after natural and man made disasters. What would happen to this country if say we had several occurrences at one time? Say another Katrina size storm (damage wise) on our southern coast, a 89-size quake or bigger on the west coast, and a 9-11 style attack on the east coast say in DC or New York again. I use these particular ones because they are well known and stand out in every one’s mind. With the strain on our country’s resources caused by our current wars combined with not one but several emergencies at the same time how short term would that be. As a country we have been exceedingly lucky not to have had more than one large scale emergency at a time, but if our luck ended what would happen how long would it last? I am not advocating self-sufficient homesteads or any thing of that nature just providing food for thought.

Depending on exactly what is hit, things could get very chaotic, at least in places, and hopefully for only a short time. You might not see FEMA for a while (nothing new there), but there is a National Guard Armory everywhere, so I suspect that you would see green (or tan) trucks all over the place. In the past I have seen military water buffalos show up at a natural disaster within hours, and bottled water from breweries in well under 24 hours. A circus tent set up as a chow hall, with food service provided by the military, the American Red Cross, Salation Army, even major fast food chain stores within a decent commute time. Law enforcement agencies, at least in CA, have a mutual aid plan in effect, so officers from one agencies can be moved into other jurisdictions on fairly short notice.

A lot would of course depend on the nature of, location of, and size of the "disaster." Roads that are impassible are impassible, greatly complicating things. Helicopters can only carry so much...

Your also more likely to have a smaller more localized disaster than a large one. So we plan accordingly. A large long term disaster will take the same kinds of preps as a short term so having enough preps for a short term situation will still help in a long term, for long term you just need more. So as you start out becoming prepared you work your way up.

I agree that on the surface that it would appear to be several localized disaters, but you have to think about how many people come to those disaters from other parts of the country. if there are several large emergencies where do the recovery crews come from. After Katrina workers came from all over the country to repair power and other utilities, and after so long there are still workers on the gulf coast working to rebuild. if there are several disaters at once where would those people come from, and if it takes years to recover from 1 hurricane, or earthquake, or one attack what happens after several at once.

There is a flip side to the question of where do the repair crews come from. That is, where do the refugees go? The rest of the country absorbed the Katrina refugees relatively painlessly. But in your scenario where several population centers are hit at once, it makes me wonder where people would go to live during the recovery.

You definitely provide food for thought.

It is an interesting scenario, but that isn't civil breakdown. It's is TEOTWAWKI- it is in all honesty beyond the scope of the existing available response.

That being said, as I use it, WWII was a TEOTWAWKI event. Europe has recovered, Asia has recovered. The "Big One" hitting California or Japan, or multiple Class 4-5 hurricanes, or even a limited nuclear exchange would all similarly be TEOTWAWKI events. And honestly, by definition, that while you can prepare supplies and develop tentative plans, it's going to be worse than anyone can imagine.

Yeah, other than Houston's violent crime rate skyrocketing...


-Blast

I had never considered it TEOTWAWKI but your right. If you think about it it really dosen't take much does it.

I agree with Blast. Almost everywhere that refugees were sent will not agree with the "painless" description!

There are many places where FEMA has yet to provide any meaningful help because the cities are absorbing most all of the resources available. There are still many "blue roofs" in Port Arthur, Tx and eastward to Florida. I do "crew changes" all along the coastal areas and then drive through those areas on the way home. I still see a lot of damage that is waiting to be repaired.

I don't have any confidence that waiting "fo th' gummint to hep me" is a good idea.

Nope. We've outsmarted, outfought, outlucked and outstubborned our way to the top of the food chain, and it only takes Mother Nature to have a REALLY bad day to mess it all up. Who knows, maybe in three or fourth thousand years, they will tell Atlantis-like legends about our era.

One thing I wonder about is if major events were taking place throughout the country would the people caught up know stuff was happening in other areas? I mean, if power/communications are down and they are just struggling to survive their situation they may not have access to information about the rest of the country. Hmm, kind of like the situation in the TV show Jericho.

This leads me to wonder about the effectiveness of a crystal radio set. Would they be affected by EMP? Does anyone have any feedback on the how well they work in general (tuning, clarity, etc...)

-Blast

When I was a kid we had crystal Rocket Radios, so named because they were shaped like a rocket ship. You slid the nose cone in and out to tune it, it had a little ear piece to listen with. I lived in a little town 70 miles or so from the nearest radio station, AM, and used to listen to the World Series on it, plus other things of course. I don't recall if we picked up stations farther away. Not a Bose, but it worked. For those of you that are handy with that kind of thing, here are instructions on how to make one.

As far as EMP goes, I suspect it would have more effect on the transmitters than receivers. If the transmitter is down, you aren't gonna hear anything, no matter what radio you have...

EMP mostly effects transistor based circuits, tubes much less so, and short of being in the blast, crystals should be OK.

They would be if not protected depending on your antena. Just about any electronic device can be protected from an EMP burst (in theory) by placing them in a faraday cage.

OK. I stand corrected. Damn shame what happened in Houston. No good deed goes unpunished I guess.

Where there are refugees, there is strife. It's worse if they are welcomed. Hong Kong with the boatpeople in the 70s. Jordan with the Palestinians in the 60s. Heck, America overall with the Irish during the potato famine.

Refugees, welcome as long they don't put down roots, are like us, and they make us feel better about the lousy stuff we do. Once the reality sets in for everyone, things change. All this has happened before, and it all will happen again.

We have some desert rat friends who live in Barstow, CA. A load of Katrinaites were moved into town, and within a couple of months they had trashed the apartment complex they were moved into...

I guess I didn't get my point across. When I wrote that absorbing the refugees was RELATIVELY painless (as opposed to Darfur or the Balkans a few years ago), I think what I was trying to illustrate is that there is a certain level of destruction where the outlying areas can absorb the extra bodies that need shelter. If the disaster, or series of disasters, is of such a magnatude that there is just not enough infrastucture to absorb (shelter) the displaced, that is when civil order is going to start breaking down.

Having said that, waiting for "the gubmit to help me" is just a code phrase that translates to, "I'm a dead man".

By the way, As a resident of Lousy-anna, I apologize for "dumping" some many of our "blessings" on the other 49 states. Especially to Houston, I'm sorry, we didn't crap on you intentionally.

No, we don't want them back, sorry!

Mayor Nagin is doing everything he can to keep the "Katrina People" from coming back to N'awlins. He doesn't want them back either.

Maybe he is sharper than I thought...

Many of our facilities are more centralized,
all the time, as out big corporations merge,
petroleum and chemical plants are expanded
rather than new plants built. Large buildings
like the Twin Towers have been built.

The only decentralizing, that I know of, was
20 years ago, NYC financial computers were
moved out of the City.

I am not an expert or even an active observer
of the above, so others probably know many more
specifics than I do. Its just my casual observation.

Eight years ago, most would not believe that
a big building would be brought down or that
New Orleans would be flooded. Because, though
experts say it could happen, it probably would
have happened, by now, if it could have happened.
Faulty Thinking, yes, but a prevailing thought process.

Illegals streaming in from Mexico and large illegal
populations in every city, make it easier for bad guys
to hide out: a huge security problem that can distract
a lot of our agents. It is hard for me to imagine that
Homeland Security has a handle on this, much less,
threats that come into our country from other ways.

So now we have to admit that attacks against Multiple
Cities and in Multiple Ways, could happen. The damage
would be compounded, because relief efforts would be
slow and weak.

The economic impacts (high unemployment and low profits)
could last for years. Regretfully, large financial
institutions would have to foreclose on large amounts of
real estate, that had been owned by the middle class,
an effect that would last for decades.

Sorry, but you are advocating a self sufficient person. You're thinking that the government will come "bail you out". That's the problem with this country. Most people depend on the government. Our founding fathers are turning over in their graves. I really wonder what would happen if this country had another depression. God help us, because the people in this country could not rely on themselves.

Hello.

Obviously preparedness means being prepared. I think organizing locally with your neighbors is 1000 times more important than Building a bunker and trying to ride out chaos. Whatever will come, we are much more likely to survive it if we organize locally and block FEMA when they try to take over our town. Organize volunteer first response networks. Store the tools needed to make the tools. We have shipped our manufacturing infrastructure to China. Could we honestly build machine tools again if we had too?

How long? That depends greatly on how well prepared we are. Society exists at the local level. We may observe global events, but most of us spend most of our lives within a few miles of our work place and our home.

If cost is the limiting factor, and not space, then livestock grainseed is great option. Buy bulk livestock grainseed, like millet, oats, wheat, buckwheat, corn.... and a grain grinder. Stock up on iodized salt.

How long? maybe forever. Humpty Dumpty may not survive the trip to the hospital.

At this time we have to many fires going on at the same time... what with the economy, war, illegals and many others.

It will 100 times worse than in 1929 because we always had a recovering industry and economy but now we have NOTHING... I really expect a civil war.

We will be a third class country and will have to start from home base.

I can see Russia, China and India coming to our aid.