Well, Italy is shutdown

Posted by: teacher

Well, Italy is shutdown - 03/09/20 11:14 PM

Italy just closed.
We will se ho this helps
Posted by: Doug_Ritter

Re: Well, Italy is shutdown - 03/10/20 01:47 AM

Given the Italian cultural "disregard" for authority, could get interesting. One advantage China, or any authoritarian regime, is they can actually control the populace, more or less, for better or worse.
Posted by: Doug_Ritter

Re: Well, Italy is shutdown - 03/10/20 01:49 AM

Recent article on a closed website notes that Italians have the secons oldest population in the world and virtually all their many deaths are over age 70, most over 80!
Posted by: Doug_Ritter

Re: Well, Italy is shutdown - 03/10/20 01:53 AM

Global data on the lethality of the new virus show that the elderly are much more likely to succumb to Covid-19, the respiratory disease caused by the virus, than the young.

In Italy, which has the oldest population in the world after Japan, 58% of Covid-19 patients who died so far were over 80 years old, and a further 31% were in their 70s, according to the National Institute of Health, Italyís disease-control agency.

ďIf we break it down by age group, our death rates are similar, or even lower, than those reported in China,Ē Giovanni Rezza, the instituteís chief epidemiologist, told reporters on Monday. ďFor better or for worse, we have a very old population.Ē
Posted by: Phaedrus

Re: Well, Italy is shutdown - 03/10/20 06:21 AM

The mortality rate in almost unbelievably low for infants and toddlers. From what I can find almost no deaths have occurred in patients under eight!
Posted by: Ren

Re: Well, Italy is shutdown - 03/10/20 11:40 AM

Italian press release with link to the a PDF with age/gender breakdown.

Italian Higher Institute of Health press release
Posted by: Russ

Re: Well, Italy is shutdown - 03/10/20 11:59 AM

When looking at the demographics of who is dying from COVID-19, few of the stats break out smokers from non-smokers; however ACE2 may be a vector (if thatís the correct term).

Tobacco-use disparity in gene expression of ACE2, the receptor of 2019-nCov
Quote:
Abstract
In current severe global emergency situation of 2019-nCov outbreak, it is imperative to identify vulnerable and susceptible groups for effective protection and care. Recently, studies found that 2019-nCov and SARS-nCov share the same receptor, ACE2. In this study, we analyzed four large-scale datasets of normal lung tissue to investigate the disparities related to race, age, gender and smoking status in ACE2 gene expression. No significant disparities in ACE2 gene expression were found between racial groups (Asian vs Caucasian), age groups (>60 vs <60) or gender groups (male vs female). However, we observed significantly higher ACE2 gene expression in smoker samples compared to non- smoker samples. This indicates the smokers may be more susceptible to 2019-nCov and thus smoking history should be considered in identifying susceptible population and standardizing treatment regimen.

Posted by: Ren

Re: Well, Italy is shutdown - 03/10/20 12:03 PM

Have no idea how popular smoking is in Italy but from link above

"The analysis confirms that 56.6% of the deceased people are over 80 years old, and two thirds of them have 3 or more pre-existing chronic diseases."

So 37% of deaths are over 80, with 3 or more pre existing conditions.
Posted by: Ren

Re: Well, Italy is shutdown - 03/10/20 12:33 PM

Seems CDC got the memo.

People at Risk for Serious Illness from COVID-19

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/specific-groups/high-risk-complications.html
Posted by: LCranston

Re: Well, Italy is shutdown - 03/10/20 02:44 PM

Yes. It appears that healthy lungs is a key factor, or inversely, UNHEALTHY lungs are the risk factor.

Older, smoker, or other health conditions....


Now we just need to make sure the kids do not become a VECTOR.... Might not want the kids visiting Grandma at the nursing home. The lack of test kits make it difficult to know if they are NOT infected, or infected, but with no symptoms....
Posted by: clearwater

Re: Well, Italy is shutdown - 03/10/20 08:21 PM

This doesn't sound good. Italy

https://twitter.com/jasonvanschoor
Posted by: Doug_Ritter

Re: Well, Italy is shutdown - 03/10/20 08:24 PM

While it is easy to find smoking numbers, it isn't so easy to find rates, which is more important in this assessment. However, I'd be very surprised if the rate for older smokers in Italy isn't very high and if you include former smokers with lung issues, even higher. Add that to the generally older population and this is the result.
Posted by: Ren

Re: Well, Italy is shutdown - 03/10/20 09:14 PM

Pretty bleak thread from a consultant in Northern Italy.

https://twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/status/1237142891077697538

Particularly...

"5/ Patients above 65 or younger with comorbidities are not even assessed by ITU, I am not saying not tubed, Iím saying not assessed and no ITU staff attends when they arrest."
Posted by: Russ

Re: Well, Italy is shutdown - 03/10/20 09:27 PM

Thereís another good read at: 3 Reasons Why Smokers Have Worse Covid-19 Outcomes Ė Jesse Santiano M.D.

It reads like a tutorial in how lungs are damaged and made susceptible to COVID-19. While on active duty and stationed in Spain, Greece, Italy one thing that became apparent was that a lot of men smoked. Aging population, smokers = perfect environment for COVID-19.

Quote:
Smoking
Smoking is a risk factor for cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease. In China, 68% of men and 3.2% of women are smokers. That is from a study by Lancet in 2015. Based on this, we can infer that most of the men who got sick were smokers.

Why is smoking a big deal? What happens when someone smokes?

1. Covid-19 Sticks to Smokers Lungs More Easily

Before a virus causes damage to the lungs, it has to attach to lung tissue. Specifically, the alveoli. The alveoli are the smallest unit of the lung. They are responsible for oxygen and carbon dioxide exchange. The alveoli have ACE2 (angiotensin-converting enzyme 2) receptors. Receptors are where the SARS coronavirus and the Covid-19 sticks to. Once the virus sticks to the alveoli, tissue damage begins.

In an unpublished study called Tobacco-Use Disparity in Gene Expression of ACE2, the Receptor of 2019-nCov, done at the University of South Carolina, the investigators found that smokers have more ACE2 receptors in their lungs compared to non-smokers. The more the ACE2 receptors, the higher the chance of the Coronavirus adhering to a smokerís lungs.


FWIW, Iím not a smoker and due to past issues with people who did smoke, I no longer tolerate them. I donít do second-hand smoke either. I just excuse myself and walk away ó no apologies.
Posted by: hikermor

Re: Well, Italy is shutdown - 03/10/20 11:07 PM

And it is not just covid-19; almost everything I have red lately that discusses ways to improve your health, brain functioning, you name it- seems to mention eating right (emphasize fruits and veggies), exercise,no smoking, and control your weight. Seems plausible and fairly basic.
Posted by: Ren

Re: Well, Italy is shutdown - 03/10/20 11:53 PM

Seems blood pressure and diabetes is also common amongst the over 65s in Italy.

So probably make up the 3 or more pre existing conditions together with whatever smoking related conditions.

Edit:
National Geo on underlying conditions
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/scien...isingly-common/

Posted by: DaveL

Re: Well, Italy is shutdown - 03/12/20 03:43 AM

Humm
I was born and raised in out side Pittsburgh PA,
My home town has power plants on the East anWest sides of town, you could catch fly ash in the palm of you hands.Everyone sucked up polluted air.

Almost every adult and teenager smoked, cigarettes. I smoked cigarettes from age around thirteens to around age 45 after that pipe smoker no inhaling then quit cold turkey.
I Had a triple bypass at age 71. So my point is knock off the social shaming of smokers and mind you own business. Now I smoke a pipe of tobacco around twice a week. Because I enjoy it.

Any one passing away In there 70 or older is dying of something ,anyone think they are getting out of life alive MTC
Posted by: Russ

Re: Well, Italy is shutdown - 03/12/20 01:01 PM

This corona virus thing is just showing another reason that smoking is not in your best interest regardless of how much you enjoy it ó some people get sick and donít even know it, other people die. Itís about science and health, not social shaming.

Iím in my late 60ís and regularly push my heart over the old theoretical (220-(age)) max heart rate, there are better formulas, because that one doesnít work; 205.8 ó (0.685 ◊ Age) Is better, I havenít broken that level yet. My resting heart rate as I stand here typing is 62 bpm with a blood O2 reading of 99% (using an Innovo fingertip pulse oximeter)ó neat toy but seems to be accurate. Point is, you enjoy your pipe, I enjoy long walks where I can push myself and not worry about a triple bypass and all the meds that go with it. Yeah, Iím solo on those walks so call me anti-social.

Iím no marathon runner, most Iíve ever run is a 10K and I wasnít racing anything but my watch.
Posted by: Russ

Re: Well, Italy is shutdown - 03/12/20 03:37 PM

One thing this epidemic is spotlighting is the selfishness of some people and disregard for the wellbeing of others.
Passenger tests positive for coronavirus on JetBlue flight ó The man knew he was positive for COVID-19 and got on the plane anyway.

...and my family wonders why I never fly on commercial airlines...

You arenít paranoid if they really are out to get you. wink
Posted by: Ren

Re: Well, Italy is shutdown - 04/24/20 02:31 PM

France seems to be finding that smokers are under represented in coronavirus patients.

https://www.france24.com/en/20200423-france-testing-whether-nicotine-could-prevent-coronavirus-1
Posted by: hikermor

Re: Well, Italy is shutdown - 04/24/20 05:31 PM

I would like to see more definitive studies. After all, we are hearing of suggestions to consume disinfectants, as well as other desperate measures.

Someday we will look back on this time and shake our heads in wonderment.
Posted by: M_a_x

Re: Well, Italy is shutdown - 04/24/20 07:57 PM

Currently they do not have reliable numbers of infected persons. There may be many people who are infected but do not know it because of having only mild symptoms and not going to the doctor. The symptoms caused by smoking related health issues could simply mask symptoms of a covid infection. I am really sceptical about it.
Maybe we have to prepare for dealing with shortages of tobacco products and ointments for muscle pain (some contain nicotine) in the near future wink.
Posted by: AKSAR

Re: Well, Italy is shutdown - 04/24/20 08:23 PM

Originally Posted By: hikermor
Ö. we are hearing of suggestions to consume disinfectants, as well as other desperate measures.

So I've heard. In fact, my understanding is that bit of advice comes from the highest levels of government.

Personally, I think I'll wait and let those who trust that particular source of information to try it first.
Posted by: Ren

Re: Well, Italy is shutdown - 04/24/20 10:44 PM

Whilst it's true don't have reliable numbers of infected. That still doesn't make sense why smokers are under represented in confirmed cases.

The assumption was that smokers were at higher risk, so would be over represented amongst the worst outcomes.

Still interesting to see how further study pans out.