Biggest Concerns in an SHTF Situation

What is your biggest concern in an SHTF situation and what ideas do you have to combat it? It can be any SHTF situation. Pick your poison.

Jeanette Isabelle

My main concern would be lawlessness and the risks of violent attack or robbery/looting.

MOST aspects of disasters can be planned for.
Food shortage=keep a supply, grow your own.
Water shortage=keep a reserve, rainwater capture, means of purifying.
Lack of vehicle fuel= keep a stock, learn to live with less, and perhaps none.
Lack of home heating fuel= Keep a stock, burn wood.

Preparing for lawlessness is more challenging. Keep firearms and carry same where lawful, but the other lot might be better armed, more numerous, or simply lucky.
Knives, sporting bats and the like certainly help, but again the other lot might be better equipped.

Potentially having to defend yourself is an "unknown unknown" To what extent, and against whom.

Another concern would be a situation that feels like TEOTWAWKI but from which TPTB DO recover and later prosecute one for murder, under conditions when killing in self defence felt justified AT THE TIME but which later looks like cold blooded murder.

My biggest concern in any generalized calamity is: how it will affect my community. I argue that the notion of solo survival in a genuine calamity is a delusion: MRE's and FAK's only get me so far. The real prep is forming and nurturing linkages within my family, my neighborhood, my church group. I can provide some of my needs, but will need the kindness of the group to survive and recover from a hurricane, a flood, or a tornado.

And the way that I nurture these relationships is to be there: attend the meetings, the family dinners, the worship services and mission trips. Help out physically when I can, offer aid and comfort when I cannot. As I get older, the need for connection gets clearer. I no longer harbor the fantasy that I can go it alone. It takes a village, or a clan, or a tribe.
That said, I still love my Leatherman (gave it to a grandson, need to replace), my blade (home made, cause my eyes are bigger than my wallet in the blade realm), and my centennial airweight (old guy, old gun). But that's love, not need.

I share your concern, Mike. That's part of the reason I belong to a gun club and attend every meeting unless there is a conflict in schedule.

Jeanette Isabelle

My biggest concern is getting reliable information. Having been in several disasters, information, reliable information becomes the key to all other actions.

Understanding where (and how) to look requires planning, training and practice.

I would say every concern is the biggest if we truly had a SHTF situation. Now, almost everyone faces SHTF at some point, be it a vehicle break down in a remote location, job loss at a bad time, hurricane/tornado/earthquake, etc. Very few situations in the US have ever turned into a long term, wide-scale SHTF condition, though. Certainly the Great Depression was one, and the Civil War was another. Short of that most bad situations were relatively limited to just parts of the country or were short in duration.

If we had a genuine SHTF/EOTWAWKI event? Honestly I think all bets are off. The food supply would be disrupted, there might be no water, no fuel, no communications or transportation systems working, no medical system or infrastructure, etc. Some of you might have read the works of Selco, a fellow who lived at ground zero of the Bosnian collapse of '92. The cities were encircled by battling militaries that prevented the delivery of food and supplies. The hospitals all collapsed, there was widespread murder and looting in the total absence of govt and law enforcement. He now teaches courses which could be interesting but maybe not useful. His lessons applied to his situation which will likely not be yours/ours. For instance, while stores were closed the US and NATO did airdrop millions of MREs over the course of the crisis. Certainly if the US collapsed there'd be no one dropping food to us. Also, his writings reveal that a lot of his survival came down to pure luck (although he never directly admits it).

It's pretty hard to answer without defining "SHTF". If we simply skip ahead to the worst, some unspecified yet utter collapse of Western civilization, then I say make peace with whatever force you worship. I don't anyone currently alive has ever experienced that before, and I can't imagine any preparations that would suffice. You could store years worth of food but how would you defend it for years? You could attempt to "bug out" to a remote location but where in North America could you hope to go that no one else could find or reach you? You could stockpile common (and even uncommon) drugs and medications but it's still a lottery; get cancer or have a heart attack and you simply will die. Get a bad injury and your odds are poor. The US military can use a small truckoad of supplies to stabilize a few soldiers, and they have somewhere to evac the wounded to. Where would you evac to? Can you do a heart transplant in your bunker? Do you need a perishable drug that can't be stockpiled (like insulin?).

I guess I'm not sure what the point is. Obviously any preps you do are good, especially in light of the fact that most emergencies are limited in scope and limited in duration. If there's a hurricane or tornado, or an earthquake, eventually the clouds will disperse and the ground will stop shaking. Recovery might take a long time but there will be resources or at least places to go to escape the effect.

But what can you do if everything collapses? I honestly have no idea. No matter how well you prepare it will likely come down to luck.

You mentioned communications. That is among the top of my concerns. Someone might say, "get a ham radio." That only works if every person you need to talk to has a ham radio.


Pick one. It could be an economic collapse, martial law or an earthquake of biblical proportions.

Jeanette Isabelle

Removed.

Given that you live in Montana, you don't need to worry about the direct effects of an earthquake.

Removed.


You can't buy anything with your money.

Jeanette Isabelle

Discussion of “SHTF” can encompass a variety of widespread emergencies. For example, a disaster where utilities are out, first responders are completely saturated, economic disruption prevents one from purchasing goods and services, or all of the above.

Martial law in the United States has happened historically https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martial_law_in_the_United_States and cannot be ruled out entirely for the future, but martial law throughout the entire United States hasn’t happened since the Civil War. Since then martial law has encompassed an entire territory once during WWII, and otherwise has been of more limited geographic and temporal scope.

I bring up this history deliberately to frame the following: As it states in the rules, This is not a survivalist web site and such discussions are not appropriate. Hypotheticals included. Let me be very clear that “SHTF” discussions are welcome, and “TEOTWAWKI” discussions are not. Martial law declared throughout the USA is the latter.



chaosmagnet

I'm probably a very bad prepper. My plans are to prepare for the things that are most likely to happen & actually affect me. Those include but are not limited to blizzards, tornados, power outages, job loss/personal economic issues and recessions. I don't much plan for "black swan" events, ie things that are possible and certainly do occur on long enough time scales but are unlikely in any given year/generation/lifetime. Those include but aren't limited to civil war, supervolcano, giant asteroid, full scale nuclear exchange, super-powered EMP, etc. The black swans are extremely rare so the odds of them occurring in my lifetime are relatively low, and also so devastating that no preparation on my part will significantly improve my odds for survival.

Deleted for now, per PM with the member.

This may seem trivial; one of my concerns is losing the Internet. We have no power. Maybe something else happened. In any case, we lost communication. I realize there's nothing we can do about that other than to hopefully find an alternate means of communication.

Jeanette Isabelle

Yeah, we take it for granted! I use the internet all day every day, for work and for entertainment. The only shows I watch are on Netflix, Hulu, YouTube or Amazon. There are several people, including family members, that I primarily keep in touch with via email or Skype. Lack of communications would be more disconcerting in a 'grid down' situation than most other concerns. If it's cold I have heavy cloths and sleeping bags. Without power I still have gas stoves, flashlights, etc. But without communications you're cut off from the outside world, and even from those just miles away.

I have some Baofeng radios but the range is naturally pretty limited. Eventually I'd like to get into proper HAM radio.

Removed.

Removed.

Most of my family lives in Texas. My sister Brittany does not prep. However, she is married. Therefore, she at least has someone there in the event communications are down. That is unless my brother in law is away on a business trip.

My youngest sister has limited house preps; no car preps. I'm most concerned about her because she lives alone and her long commute to work is through southeast Dallas county where there are miles of nothing. She does not have the luxury of pulling into a gas station or store if something goes wrong. If communications are down or experience temporary chaos, she would be venerable.

Thank God for our elderly neighbor across the street whom we have known since we moved to that house in 1989. [My youngest sister owns the house we grew up in.] Our neighbor would only be of help if my sister were at home and not on the road.

You mentioned getting a ham radio. That will only work if every person I need to communicate with has a ham radio. If even one person has a ham radio, that's enough of a reason to get one. If one sister only preps a little and the other not at all, what are the odds of either getting a ham radio?

I may talk a lot about Mom and I being ready for a big event and what we do to get prepared; my biggest concern is something I don't talk about much and that is our other family members.

Jeanette Isabelle

All you can really do for family is keep them informed (lead the horse to water), but they need to take action on their own (drink). People set their own priorities and unless they see a need that’s higher than other needs, they won’t do anything.

Some people need to feel pain before they’ll recognize a threat. Unfortunately, being able to buy stuff on credit and the “just-in-time” mindset has put a lot of folks in a bad place if something catastrophic were to occur.

I tend to think 'situational' in that what I may have to deal with with will be local and/or short term. Such as storms, electrical outage, accidents, flood, etc. I am a bit generic in what I prepare to face but it generally covers most likely situations I would expect to have happen to me and mine with ways to cope. Also, short-term may be defined several ways but I think it means for me is really short (a day or less) but can stretch into a week or so.

For something long-term I would have to adapt and try to cope as it developed and build from the initial ability / resources I have and likely relocate or 'bug out' as it's said. Each situation would evolve and I would have to do so also. I try to think of versatility when selecting ways to prepare and cope with less then optimal conditions.

As for communications - I got into ham radio and think of it as an additional tool not a solution. If I have a ham radio connection, I can then get that connection to relay a message to the "other end" so who ever I am reaching out to doesn't necessarily have to have a ham radio too. It can also be used to connect with others for help or support. There are also techniques for using amateur radio (ham) to connect to the internet, send texts and email as well as other data while also connecting with voice and code. Heck, there are even smart phone apps that let you connect to a home base and run it from where ever you are. US Emergency Management traditionally supports and works with hams in such situations too.

So, my biggest concern is really more about me being able to rise to the occasion and properly deal with the unexpected. Hopefully I will have the right training/knowledge with the proper tools be able to deal with the situation I find myself in.

Paul -

Living in SoCal, it is no surprise that my concerns involve wild fires and earthquakes, possibly accompanied by a tsunami. At least I don't bother with hurricanes and tornadoes.

Mrs. Hikermor and i have a well developed evacuation plan (tested twice and implemented once) for wild fires. People, pets, and important papers and photos are the priorities. The rest is covered by insurance.

When a really big tremor hits us, we will most likely shelter in place. I have lots of outdoor gear - stoves, sleeping bags, tents and shelters, etc.,so that should be feasible if the home is damaged or uninhabitable. I have solar capability to recharge phones and lights. over the years, i have gotten completely away from the traditional white gas powered lanterns and stoves which I used in my younger days. A lot of this stuff is stored outside the house.

So what happens when a fire follows a devastating EQ (Think Frisco 1906). That is where improvisation and clear thinking will be necessary, as will be the case in some entirely unanticipated event, of which there could be many.

First aid material is well distributed though the home, vehicles,and back apcks. I have lots of emergency medical experience,but I really shoud refresh my training. In any significant situation, assistance will not be immediately forthcoming.

I have taken the local CERT course, but the administration of the program is basically a joke. It has been described as "catch and release." CERT has never been activated or utilized locally.

Wow !! Where do I begin , LOL

I am an INTJ, per the MBTI classification of personalities. One of the distinctive traits of an INTJ is EFFICIENCY !!! INTJ people HATE wasting stuff, wasting time, wasting RESOURCES , ..etc.

A few years ago, I retired from work after 35+ years, and also my daughter graduated from college. Both of us have had accumulated a huge amount of papers. So, I sat and classified them. The papers that should have been thrown (God Forbid) were put in a corner, and I scavenged 8 empty cartons of A4 paper, refilled them with our "waste paper" , and stored them like a precious relic, LOL. Now these sheets of A4s are being used by me in the home office, as well as my grand son for his drawings and games.

I feel that my efficiency style will be severely challenged in an SHTF !! Seems to me the society around me is built on WASTING stuff in a not-so-acceptable wise manner. And after some kind of SHTF, they will continue to do so, not realizing that "endless" supply is disrupted, at least for some time.

So, if I do invite some folks to my home in a disaster, they are most certainly going to do what they do normally, wasting water, kids playing with all kinds of stuff, the thought of it gives me knots in my stomache.

Remember the Four Ps: people, pets, papers and photos.

Jeanette Isabelle

I have shortened the list
Pets are out of my life
Photos are digitized and stored on multiple media

this is why I have sun/crank/wall/battery powered radios.
(some of which will also charge a phone)

About acquiring information. Listening is far more important than transmitting.

Imagine having a receiver that covers almost all of the useful radio spectrum. Public service, ham, satellite, military, FM broadcast, everything.

Even if the information is encrypted, if you are familiar with the routine traffic loads, you will notice when the traffic load changes. In the military this is called operational tempo or OPTEMP. A sudden gigantic increase of all the local police frequencies may indicate that something "interesting" is happening. You might then switch to some of the local industrial frequencies like Power company or ambulance services. Local media frequencies like remote pickups or perhaps fire services.

Many of the digital services can easily be decoded. Paging, equipment service transmissions (river level, power monitors etc.) are easily decoded.

Many satellites are easily received. Weather sats. send color or enhanced color images directly to your receiver.

And the equipment is very cheap. Less than $30 will buy a small dongle which you plug into your computer. Download free software and you will have a very wide range receiver. Some cover from 1 Mhz to 3 ghz.

These are software defined receivers (SDR). Here is a youtube demo of some of the applications.

SDR Demo.

Amazon sells one here

Amazon

For non-computer literate folks the learning curve is high, but very much worth the effort. Geeks will jump right in and have no difficulty following the many youtube and other learning resources.

But this is not something to buy and hold until something bad happens. You will need to spend a lot of time learning your local electronic environment and exploring the technical issues around encryption, satellite tracking and other complex issues.

Information directly from the source is invaluable, but you must train yourself to understand what you hear and see.

Listening is far more important than transmitting.

Totally agreed Nomad.

For those whose technical proclivities do not run towards the intersection of radio and IT geekery (like mine do), there are a number of inexpensive receiver options that can pick up public safety bands as well as broadcast radio. Listening to ham radio is completely legal without any license, and can provide first hand information, especially if you're used to listening to it.

Having a receiver in a kit isn't nearly as useful as having a receiver and knowing what is best to listen to locally.

Agreed. As long as we’re talking radio receivers for kits ... I have a couple CountyComm GP-5 radios which “covers medium wave 520-1710 kHz shortwave 2300-30000 kHz and the FM band”.

The GP-5 radio’s “Easy Tune Method” will scan the local spectrum and determine which frequencies have energy. Then as you “tune”, it jumps from station to station, bypassing the static so you can easily determine which stations are useful without having to do the manual tuning.

I have two of these radios. The first GP-5 I bought didn’t have SSB, I only use that radio for local AM/FM stations. The second has SSB, so in addition to AM/FM, it’s more useful for short wave. Both have a standard FM telescoping antenna and an internal AM antenna. For improved AM reception there’s an external ferrite antenna that is attached with a 3.5mm jack. It swivels and is somewhat directional for better antenna gain — I like it. For shortwave reception, a long-wire antenna can attach to the FM antenna with an alligator clip.

No affiliation with CC, I just like the radio.

Awesome info, Nomad! I'll look into that.

I also like the radio .

My review from 2013: http://forums.equipped.org/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=264506 .

In light of these thoughts, for anyone looking for a new radio — Top 10 Shortwave Radios of 2019 — Video Review

The Tecsun PL-360 that ranked #10 is the same radio as the CC GP-5 we’ve been discussing although without SSB.

I kinda sorta like the Tecsun PL880, #4 on the list. It uses a Li-Ion 18650 as a power source and can recharge the battery with a USB mini input port.

Then again, an old analog AM/FM radio may be all that’s needed. This morning I pulled out an older Sony ICF-38 — analog, 4xAA batteries, power-cord wrapped inside.

Okay, I’m a radio-junkie, but no, I didn’t pay $189 for it, more like $25; but I guess it’s a collector’s item or something. I haven’t turned this radio on in years, but accidentally moved the power switch while handling and it turned on, nice sound. I didn’t realize I’d left batteries in it. Yep, four AA Eneloops, with enough charge remaining to listen to the news for a bit. Before they died, I removed the batteries, charged them back to full and put them back in — good to go for another couple years. The latest here indicates the weather that convinced PG&E to shutdown power in the bay area is moving south, so that radio may be put to work sooner than I thought.

Another set of Eneloops are charging now for the CountyComm GP-5 Nice thing is that AA batteries are easily recharged if the grid goes down; those little backpack-able solar panels really are useful.

As for a decent analog radio: May I recommend the Panasonic RF-2400D AM / FM Radio as an alternative at less than $30. Review here.

when I was a classroom teacher on the Central West Coast of Florida, I gave a yearly emergency management lab on preparedness... my key emphasis was in fact to MAKE A PLAN...it involved many areas commonly identified, but with emphasis on when to put the plan into operation... that is to have a definite go-no go indicator...

there is an old adage in political science.. if you place a frog in a pot of cool water and gradually heat the water over a period of time, you can boil the frog as it will not notice the slight amount of day to day change... compare that to dropping a frog into a pan of boiling water where the frog immediately jumps out...it is hard to determine the degradation of the situation if the change is slow... have a definite, identifiable, situation or event that causes your immediate action

and for some situations a PACE model of alternative actions might be of use
P primary
A alternative
C contingency
E emergency

AM radio is a good way to stay connected and up to speed with current events. One of the issues with AM reception is having a decent radio, the other is having a better antenna. The nice thing about AM radio is that it propagates really well at night (after the sun goes down) and you can receive radio stations from a great distance. During the day it’s another thing entirely so you need a better antenna for improved reception:

One antenna that seems to work well with AM radios can be fabricated out of relatively common items.
How to build a Milk Crate AM Broadcast Loop Antenna

So you make one of these milk-crate antenna’s and then what? Put the (in my case battery powered, portable) AM radio inside the crate (which is laying on its side), use the capacitor to “tune” the antenna to whichever station the radio is on (listen as you adjust the capacitor), and then orient the crate to optimize signal gain of the loop. The antenna couples to the radio inductively — essentially, the ferrite rod antenna couples to the loop milk-crate antenna for increased signal gain.

If you’re interested, there are better explanations on the web.

Okay, I kinda liked the Tecsun PL-880 and now that’s it’s in hand and turned on, I do like it. I need to review/relearn the Tecsun tuning system again, it’s not intuitive. The PL-880’s tuning is similar to the Tecsun PL-360/CC GP-5 so the radio controls are familiar.

If you know the channel you want it’s easy to tune it in. Scanning the spectrum and putting stations into memory is another thing and the ETM system is another — not difficult, just different. Regardless, it is easier to use than the CC GP-5 simply because the buttons are bigger and the knobs have a better feel. It also has a fine tuning knob which is absent on the GP-5. For those interested in SW, it does have SSB.

BTW, the PL-880 is powered by an Li-Ion 18650 and the radio arrived with a 2000mAh battery. The radio reportedly has a smart charger built in, haven’t tried it.