38 minutes of Fear

By now, most here have probably read, seen or heard about the false incoming ballistic missile alert yesterday in Hawaii. Reading through the various news stories, the common theme was the panic that set in for most people. Perhaps this badly misguided test will prompt some to be more prepared in the event that the next alert is actually real.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/hawaii-missile-alert-test-goes-wrong-terrifies-state-n837551

https://www.cnn.com/2018/01/13/politics/hawaii-missile-threat-false-alarm/index.html

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/alb...rticle37598703/

http://beta.latimes.com/nation/la-na-hawaii-missile-alert-20180113-story.html#nt=oft12aH-1gp2

It's pretty messed up. The reason given was that someone pressed the wrong button?! I would've hoped the procedure to start mass panic was a little more involved.

Probably the reaction of many,not all, hopefully, will be to blow it off as another false alarm.

It strikes me as a software design problem. In industry, the Emergency Shutdown button on the control screens for, say, a refinery, will have second "confirm and execute" popup screen. You don't want to have the ability to execute control actions that have major consequences without confirmation. Sort of a "two key" approach (bad joke!).

They did mention "Miyagi, a retired Army two-star general, then explained that an individual on his team sent the alert in error, even clicking through a redundancy on a computer screen intended to act as a safeguard from such a mistake."

So there was a check on it, but if the test drill looks a lot like the real thing; it easy to mix the real and test versions. If they look too differently; the training wouldn't be accurate. So there is always a tension between looking real enough, while still obviously not real.

hopefully they will get that sorted out.
the publicity will probably help them - not sure how many people in Hawaii are actually taking this seriously.

Some of the same issues were at play here during the Montecito mudslides. The timing and strength of the storm were accurately predicted days in advance. Flash floods and mudslides are common events following a fire that incinerates whole watersheds, as did the Thomas Fire.

Nontheless, many people, when informed they were in a mandatory evacuation zone and that a flood was imminent, elected to stay. Many had been out of their homes for a week or more. The debris flow hit in the early morning hours and exceeded all predictions. Severe damage and fatalities occurred in voluntary evac zones.

Me and Mrs. Hikermor were in a voluntary evac zone for that same event. I was confident we would not be flooded, and I was right, but emotionally, I had the same reaction -'No, not again! I ain't leavin'!!"

Spent today on chores around the house. I am fortunate to be able to say that....

Those Hawaii folks just need a melamine desk to hide under.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKOctWC9sIA

Haywood Banks

I think that this False Alert was actually an excellent development. Because it shows how well the "real system" will work, if there is a real nuclear alert in Hawaii. And what we see from the results ... is ZERO percent success. The following news shows why ...

______________
Everyone was seriously thinking ‘is this my last moment on earth?'” says Gold. “People were texting their homes and telling people they loved them. People were crying.”
“Where do you hide from a nuclear attack?” asks Gold. “So, everyone just kind of milled around and asked each other where they were going and ultimately we settled on an interior conference room – sort of as far away from the outside as possible but we recognized it would probably be pretty weak shelter from a nuclear attack. But it was the best we could do.”
---------------

So when people got the warning, none of them actually went to a real disaster shelter. Instead, they all stood around gabbing about it on their cell phones. That pretty much guarantees maximum casualties.

Any of these people could have found the closest basement, or underground level of a parking garage. Anything that's underground is way better than being at surface level.

I have mentioned this problem before on this forum.
Internet Paralysis.
People are so hooked on texting and social media, they would rather chat about "how they feel" about a situation, instead of actually taking real steps to protect their lives.

Unless Hawaii holds mandatory drills, and actually shows people where to go - and tells them to get their rear ends moving during a real crisis - the effectiveness is going to be zero.

All the best plans are for nought if they do not take into account real human behavior.

I agree, the means of giving the alert needs to be instantly available, but protected against accidental operation.
A good way of achieving this is a simple switch that is located behind a breakable glass panel, similar to some types of fire alarm call point.
Located about 6 feet above floor level so as to be within reach of a person of less than average height, but unlikely to be broken accidently when moving furniture.

If the warning needs to be given, it takes a very few seconds for the operator to stand up, reach upwards, break the glass and operate the switch. Quick and simple but almost impossible to do by mistake.

Not sure how the system works in hawaii, but these days a manual button is rarely used. Those are handy for a general emergency shut down. For these alert system i would expect a comuter program, with buttons to click for a range of predetermined messages. The where doing tests, so somebody forgot to put it in test/practise mode or the system is setup incorrectly (test mode made to activate everything, in a silent/invisible mode).

Reminds me of WOPR

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ecPeSmF_ikc

Seems like what Hawaii needs is an emergency system with text alerts, loud sirens, and a visual warning beacon (maybe several beacons on the high hills). They need ALL of these signals to go off together. That would give the "confirmation" that people need to really get running in an emergency.

As one of many that have experienced real life nuclear war alarms, I strongly identify with the stories I have heard of people spending what they thought was their last few minutes with (or without) their loved ones.

In my case I was trained and I understood the risks. I can only imagine what it must be like for a parent to hold their child and wait......

This was not a simple error to be corrected but a severe trauma inflicted on a large population, well beyond the residents directly threatened.

And for many of us, it re-awakened long dormant feelings. We as sentient beings must somehow get beyond this "nuke-em" attitude.

Nomad.

Well said, Nomad. Sadly it appears we're reentering "interesting times" that I'd hoped we had left behind us. If there's to be any silver lining to this debacle I would say it must be to be better prepared. It would appear that there was no plan in place. No one seemed to be headed towards shelters or even know if there were any around. This should be a teachable moment! Whatever civil defense assets are available in HI they should be discussed and the public informed as to what to do if the balloon goes up for real.

I am fortunate I suppose to live in a 'boring' place. As a kid I grew up about 35 miles from Elsworth AFB and maybe five to ten miles from a Minuteman missile silo. If the Cold War would have gone hot my house probably would have been pretty near one of the highest priority targets in SAC. Now a small rogue state like DPRK almost certainly could not reach the city where I now live. In a full scale nuke exchange it probably wouldn't much matter where you live though.

They did. (Save for beacons.)

Sirens, road signs, cell and email. Some local authorities denied they used sirens until proved wrong.

What they need is people to authenticate before warning. And a statewide plan in place.

People were told to take shelter in buildings, but Walmart, Courthouses, etc. were either closed (Sat). or locked their doors.

Many other buildings there are not concrete or masonry or have insulation. So taking shelter that would do any good would be challenging.

So it's just "hide beneath the school desk, waiting for the atom bombs to fall"

Inn later stages of a disaster, self defense from looters and rioters would be hard too, owing to the weapon control laws.

I agree that these days, that a physical button or switch is seldom used, but IMHO this should be reviewed for something as important as the issuing of a nuclear attack warning.
An actual switch behind a "break glass in case of emergency" panel is quick and simple to operate but almost impossible to operate by mistake.
It may also be operated by anyone who is authorised to be in the control room. The person at a computer may suffer sudden illness or panic and forget the correct procedure to follow.
If it is a simple procedure with only one or two steps, it could be activated by mistake as has just happened.
A more complex procedure has a real risk of being forgotten or misapplied in the stress of a very serious situation.

What we need are two keys to activate it:

https://youtu.be/t4okAfKCwRk?t=2m23s

Jeanette Isabelle

Having visited many incident command and crisis centers locally and abroad, the only button on the desk I have seen is for operators to open the door for visitors.

I think the issue is a procedural thing. Somebody needs to verify training, test and active mode of the systems before the buttons are pushed.

The system interface might need to have big highlights about the mode being used. However active mode is the default, so that might not trigger somebody that they aren't in training or a test mode. So this is of limited use. Having a giant blinker saying you are real mode all the time, basically makes people not see it any more pretty quickly.

A physical switch can be added to the system and procedure. A training or test can start with a coordinator manually switching and a second person verifying. This might include a switch controlled by a key.

Actively making test mode different, means people never actually get to use the real thing and means things go wrong when something does happen. It also makes it virtually impossible to test the system correctly.

Having a completely independent identical training setup can help, but is expensive. I have seen duplicate systems also being the backup system but completely separated. The computer systems were made to be able to pull out of the training server rack and inserted in the 'real' rack as emergency replacements. But somehow that system was never really working well in practice and the software always seems to be different in the training one.

Many mentions of a button being incorrectly pushed, however this is a computer system, not a manual system of breaking glass to push a button - which is so old school, it is almost obsolete.

In one of links, it says:

Miyagi, a retired Army two-star general, then explained that an individual on his team sent the alert in error, even clicking through a redundancy on a computer screen intended to act as a safeguard from such a mistake.

Rather then using the break glass analogy, (besides, who is going to put a computer system behind that setup) the computer program should require 2 person authentication instead of relying on a solo operator to make such a decision.

In other news, today Japan had the same type false alert, but it was stopped within minutes.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/japan-false-alarm-missile-north-korea-1.4489142

So the computer program in Hawaii, which is supposed to send the alerts is worse then thought. It is simply a link on a webpage (stunningly bad 1990's era design) and the operator clicked on the wrong link.

https://twitter.com/CivilBeat/status/953127542050795520

That is pretty rotten design. Not at all hard to mess up.

Looks like the user interface was not part of the requirement list or its not a finished system.

Strangle as it might sounds, a proper user interface can be forgotten when writen specifications...

Here is one near fatality due to the false alarm.

http://www.staradvertiser.com/2018/01/16...eea67a352459406

as far as the controls go - I actually like the "break-glass idea". There is too much "virtual world" stuff happening with computers. If the system required glass to be broken, and then automatically that set off red flashing lights and a warning horn (inside the control room) ... chances are you wouldn't have a lot of false alerts.

For the people on the street - they need a lot of tangible signs that a major emergency is taking place. Visual, audible, special vehicles or police ... the whole shebang. Maybe as a bare minimum, under a nuke emergency EVERY fire engine and emergency vehicle in Hawaii should activate its siren and its lights. All of that stuff going off together, will get across the message that something real is going down.

Maybe they just need some large bullhorn speakers, and a voice saying ... This is a nuclear alert! This is not a drill. Incoming warhead, seven minutes from impact!" Something like that - might get people's blood moving.

Pete

When a desktop USB toy has better protection against false alarms, than the actual alarm system...

https://www.thinkgeek.com/product/jujk/?srp=2

Take one of them, epoxy it to a PC.

how about the guy who's plan was to kill the folks next door for their stuff so he had a better chance to make it thru the attack?
"you know our plan jimmy you shoot old man smith and i'll do the jones house,bring back all you can carry to our shelter"
and don't think that's not someone's real doom day plan.
the kids they found chained up in that house is just the tip of the iceberg on how crazy the country is.
it's not how to make a fool proof warning system it's how people would react to it.

there are always crazies.
but you know what? - they will be held accountable.
I'm not sure why people figure that if "zombie days" suddenly arrive, then they can get away with anything. Truth is ... armed robbery is still armed robbery, murder is still murder. If you take a look at the bad stuff that happened in New Orleans (during the Katrina emergency), after the disaster - people were prosecuted. Victims remember, police make arrests.

There will always be a return of 'law and order'. That's what the crazies seem to forget.

In the unlikely event that Hawaii was really hit by a nuke, the US assistance response would be massive. There would be a lot of National Guard there - to deliver supplies, do evacuations, and enforce the law. There is no possibility that people will be forgotten ... it would be the other way around, IMO.

If delete prompt on a laptop can have a second pop up window to confirm if actually you want to delete, I am surprised why this that have the capabilities of causing havoc not have a second confirmation button...

Humans matter most, they should be aware of that