Florida - Here comes Irma

Hurricane Irma:
Florida Stores (already) Running Out Of Water, Gas As Gov Warns "Make Sure Your Disaster Kits Are Ready" For Irma ...

Get ready now ... or you can always wait until the last few hours to run out and buy some "extra stuff" ...

I was preparing for a nuclear war to hit the middle east at the end of this month. I need to hurry up and be certain I am prepared for a hurricane as well.

Jeanette Isabelle

This just in from the National hurricane Center:

No matter what the future holds for Irma's path and intensity, the NHC advises, "Everyone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season."

Seems like good advice....Hurricanes are more frequent than nuclear wars.

Whether or not this comes to pass (and I'm sure I join you in hoping it will not), I'll be interested to learn where you got this intel from.

It looks to me that Florida Keys residents should assume HurCon 4 on Wednesday at 0800, based on NHC forecasts. That would mean Thursday or Friday morning for Jeanette Isabelle to assume HurCon 4.....

I can link the videos but that would be in violation of the forum rules. Even the addendum is a hot button.

Jeanette Isabelle

I too expect "The Event" is about to occur. I know of several possibilities but I don't have anything more substantial than this feeling that I have.

Not sure you guys are right about the location. Middle East? war?

this country is definitely teetering on the edge of a major conflict in Korea. I am having a hard time seeing any daylight - real chances for peace - when it comes to recent events with N. Korea. sure looks like war clouds are brewing there.

Brack to Hurricane Irma .. another storm that has picked up " a full head of steam" as it travels over the warmer US coastal waters. This doesnt look like a good year for the insurance industry.

Don't read too much into things in Korea or the Middle East, these things have been going on for a long time.

I'm still prepping for a nuclear war in the middle east.

Jeanette Isabelle

presently charging some AA Eneloops, 12v trolling motor battery is on a float charger, but will put on quick charger tomorrow... propane tanks filled, 11 gal gasoline cans topped off, may refill the stored water (a hand shower wand is useful to fill water containers in your tub/shower)..

will start freezing gallon jugs of water and clean out the coolers...Publix had chunky soups BOGO so picked up 6 today...

plywood is pre cut, painted, and numbered, and if looks like a CAT4 will make a minor evacuation to cousin's post Andrew code home about 20min north...for a CAT3 will shelter in place, as I'm at 34'

stay safe

good luck Les.
It's not clear if Irma will move north to Florida, or detour to the south near Cuba. but it's wise to be prepared. how long does it take for you to nail up your plywood?

Pete

Pete.. I have an old frame house with 23 windows...most are partially covered with aluminum awning... I have a hitch on the John Deere mower, and can pull the utility trailer loaded with the plywood.... should be less than an hour without help...I'll be 70 next month, so will take it easy as it is still low 90s daily... in 2004 my drill/driver died about 3/4 through and had to finish with a screwdriver... not fun.. Ridgid 18v driver with extra battery pack should be sufficient

thank you

Florida Declares State Of Emergency As Category 4 Hurricane Irma Barrels Straight For Miami. Florida Gov. Rick Scott seems to be jumping the gun. Irma won't be on top of Miami until Saturday evening... or maybe, just maybe he's thinking it may be wise to actually motivate people to get ready or maybe even get out of town.

Cat.4 hurricane over warm water, what could possibly go wrong...

Mom and I will go to Sam's Club in an hour. I will report on how it went when we return.

Jeanette Isabelle

Now Category 5 Hurricane.

Puerto Rico is in the crosshairs as we speak.
I think the real destruction will be to the Dominican Republic and Haiti. And then afterwards, Cuba (if the storm stays south), or the Bahamas and Florida, if the storm goes north.

This morning Mom and I shopped at Sam's Club. The parking lot was busier than normal on a weekday morning; otherwise, no red flags indicated there is a problem.

One of the items on my shopping list was a case of water. For the first time, I had to get in line to buy water. A store employee announced that three tractor trailers came that morning to deliver bottled water. What they had on the warehouse floor is what they had left. The cases were smaller than what I was planning to buy, so I bought two. I did not need more for my nuclear war preps. One lady got the last six cases. There was a woman behind her who was wanting one. A fight came close to breaking out between those two.

We are four and a half hours from Miami and two women almost came to blows because only three truckloads of water instead of four was delivered that morning?

Sam's Club was out of yogurt. I'm not kidding I have yogurt for breakfast every morning like clockwork. I got to have my yogurt. They were also out of Spaghettios but they do have the moisturizing cream I like so I got both.

I will update the thread "My Checklist."

Jeanette Isabelle

Mom got two fire extinguishers. We now have enough to have one in each bedroom.

Mom also got tarps, two rolls of Gorilla tape, parachute cord and Cheez-It crackers. We're facing a nuclear war in the middle east. She needs her Cheez-It crackers.

By the way, my bedroom is beginning to look like a storage room.

Jeanette Isabelle

Do you have a good framing hammer & heavy duty nails to hold those tarps to a roof? How about a roll of heavy clear or at least opaque plastic to replace a blown out window? Will u need to sandbag any door bottoms?

Sandbags? To be honest, I was prepping for a nuclear war in the middle east, not a flood.

Jeanette Isabelle

Jeanette ... you might want to prep for a lot of wind and rain.

fOR EVERYONE ...

WOW! This is one big storm.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/

scroll down until you find this link ... 20170905_1615Z-vis.gif

It looks like Irma is going south ... somehow it looks more "south" than what computer predictions for its course are saying. If it stays south, it will run smack dab into the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. OTOH, if it goes the way the computer predicts ... then the Florida Keys are really gonna pounded.

I don't know how Caribbean islands like the Virgin Is. and the Turks and the Caicos get thru this kind of stuff. They will need major re-building.

Les ... good luck and keep a bucket of ice nearby while you're working. My body doesn't handle the heat & humidity really well either. A good electric screwdriver is a lifesaver :-)

My electric screwdriver is a Dewalt 18V drill. It originally came (long ago) with an 18 volt NiCad, but when I saw the 18 volt Lithium Ion replacement battery, how could I pass it up. Makes for a great screwdriver.

Miami Mayor: "Expect Evacuation Order On Wednesday Or Thursday"



Pack it up and leave now. Waiting for the mass evacuation just means you'll be stuck in traffic.

Jeanette Isabelle -- you aren't close enough to Miami to evac yet, but you really should get ready for a lot of rain. It will hit with high probability and much sooner than any possible M.E. nuke exchange.

I don't live in Florida but if I did we'd have left by now for sure.

Officially ... Irma is now the biggest and most powerful hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic. This classification does not include hurricanes that have crossed the Caribbean in past decades.

Barclays is now saying that Irma has the potential to cause more financial losses in the USA than any previous storm.

Les- I'd say they are right. Finish your preparations and get the heck out of there.

ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA
These islands are directly on the ground track of the eye of Hurricane Irma. Therefore, they could see winds from the eye wall (clouds) in excess of 150 mph.

BAHAMAS
The Bahamas are evacuating all of their southern islands. This is the biggest evacuation they have ever done.

PUERTO RICO
These words from the Governor of Puerto Rico say it all ...

Puerto Rico's governor is warning that the effects of Hurricane Irma could be catastrophic, calling the storm more dangerous even than Hurricane Harvey, which recently devastated Houston.
Gov. Ricardo Rossello said Tuesday that the "dangerousness of this system" has never been seen in Puerto Rico.
In his words: "It is much more dangerous than Harvey. The results could be catastrophic and devastating."
Rossello says the winds of the Category 5 storm will lash Culebra island around dawn Wednesday and move to Puerto Rico shortly afterward. He says the U.S. territory's northeast coast will feel the brunt.

Sandbags have uses for both fallout shelters and for flood defences.
There MIGHT be a nuclear attack, but there is CERTAINLY going to be a hurricane.

Based on the NHC Wind Predictions:

The Florida Keys to Miami/Tampa should be at HurCon 3.

Cape Canaveral (Cocoa Beach, Fl) including Orlando, should be at HurCon 4.

Latest from the NOAA NHC 5 day forecast cone shows Irma taking a turn to the North near Havana on Sunday and moving up the peninsula on Monday. It's a good time to be somewhere else.

Time to get to high ground and/or batten down the hatches. Stay safe, my friends!

QUOTES FROM NEWS on 6 SEP 2017

Hurricane Irma made landfall on the small island of Barbuda as a Category 5 hurricane Wednesday as it heads toward the U.S. Virgin Islands and Florida.

The size of the storm left hurricane and weather scientists speechless. “I am at a complete and utter loss for words looking at Irma's appearance on satellite imagery,” wrote Taylor Trogdon, a scientist at the U.S. National Hurricane Center‏ on Twitter.

Irma strengthened to a Category 5 hurricane Tuesday with winds up to 185 mph. The storm is most powerful ever recorded in the Atlantic Ocean. It’s so strong it is even showing up on scales for measuring earthquakes.
“No way to sugarcoat it. Irma is the type of tropical cyclone that wipes everything, including all vegetation, clean from small islands,” wrote Anthony Sagliani, the Meteorological Operations Manager at weather data firm Earth Networks.

Hi guys. Been a while since I posted. Checking in from Ft Lauderdale. Most gas stations are out of gas and the general mood is PANIC. Seriously, its even worse than Matthew last year. Luckily we have a safe place to stay with backup generator, etc. My wife's vehicle needs fuel so I'll try the gasbuddy app and head out around 3AM of so in hopes of finding a station.

So what you're saying is that this is essentially one huge F3 tornado?

Terrifying.

2 weeks ago I was bummed I left Charleston last year, since the eclipse went right over it. Now, I'm happy we missed a hurricane.

Lots of disasters right now from huge fires in the west to monster hurricanes in the east. I expect things to get worse as climate change drives ever more extreme weather events.

This piece of news will not surprise anyone who has been following this thread. It's astonishing to me that these people did not evacuate a low-lying island that was directly in the path of the eye of Hurricane Irma ...
----
NEWS 6 Sep, 2017

The island of Barbuda is “literally under water” and “barely habitable” after nearly all of its buildings were destroyed by Hurricane Irma.
Gaston Browne, prime minister of Antigua and Barbuda, told a local ABS broadcaster that one baby had died and about 60% of the population of about 1,800 is now homeless after Irma bore down upon the eastern Caribbean.

The islands’ minister of foreign affairs reportedly told the network that more than 90% of buildings were destroyed by the Category 5 storm with 185 mph winds.

-------------------

Actually, for anyone who is near the eye of this storm, the wind is essentially a giant tornado. That's a pretty good way of thinking about it.

Well, the problem with a small island is that evacuating is a bit of an issue. There are just limited boats/airplanes available and you need to go pretty far. The airport has a very short runway, so you can't really land anything of size there. The neighbors have the same dangers, so getting to the next island is not a great alternative.

Tjin - thanks for the comments.
I hope that the people of the Turks and the Caicos make a huge effort to do the evacuation. The predictions say that the storm surge there - the rise in the level of the ocean - could be as much as 20 feet at those islands.

It has been interesting to watch how the real ground track of Hurricane Irma plays out. The computer models being used by scientists at NOAA appear to be bang-on. The models are now saying that all of the Florida keys will be hit with hurricane-force wind and rain. And that the whole east coast of Florida will be impacted by this storm. So it looks like the predictions of Barclays - this will be one of the most destructive events (in financial losses) for the USA - could be true. The eye of the storm is predicted to be very close to the Florida coast.

Meanwhile LED said ...
Most gas stations in Fort Lauderdale are out of gas, and the general mood here is panic.

Thanks for checking in, LED. Really hope that you can give more news in the next few days. I hate to say this - but the computer predictions for Irma have been surprisingly accurate. Those storm scientists are getting very good at predicting the paths of Hurricanes. Irma is predicted to be on a slingshot path, directly past the Keys, Miami and Fort Lauderdale. It's looking like there will be a lot of damage from this storm. Not a good time for people to wait - to fill their cars up with gasoline. Please send more updates, if you get the chance. And best wishes for your own preparations.

Jeanette and Les - same thing goes for you. Best Wishes for your preparations. At least you were both smart, and you went shopping for supplies ahead of the rest of the crowd. Les- hopefully you are on the road now!

Yesterday gas stations had to shut down because they were empty. The remaining gas stations had long lines.

Today I went to Walmart to pick up my prescriptions. While I was there, I picked up some root beer. I got the last two bottles.

Jeanette Isabelle

I had an appointment with the eye doctor the following Monday; I just got a call saying the office will be closed. The reason was not given; I suspect it is because of the hurricane.

Jeanette Isabelle

Good luck to you all! Keep up posted as best you can.

According to the most recent update, Irma has moved slightly to the west (closer to us) and will be near our location Sunday night/Monday morning. This latest news is particularly a problem given that my bed is up against a large window. I will be sleeping on the sofa that night, assuming that is I can get some rest. Either way, Mr. MAG-LITE will be with me.

Jeanette Isabelle

It might be a good idea to cover the window as well if that's possible.

Roughly 2 AM Monday according to the latest from NOAA-NHC warning probability cones. But that can change.

What category Hurricane are they estimating Irma to be when it reaches you?

Be careful.

I saw this and couldn't resist.


Jeanette Isabelle

That answers the question about your sense of humor.

My youngest sister sent that image to Mom.

Jeanette Isabelle

almost right.
But Disney is somewhat safe - they are way up north in Orlando.

The LATEST ground track prediction shows Irma coming ONSHORE directly at the southern suburbs of Miami. Wow, if that happens, Irma will do the same thing to Miami that Harvey did to Houston.
Pretty unbelievable. But let's wait and see.

Meanwhile, Irma still has sustained max winds of 175 mph. Which means that the passage beside Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic did NOTHING to blunt the fury of this hurricane.

Hope we hear from more people in southern Florida. It would be good to get a live update.

Irma predicted to be a CAT 4 hurricane when it hits Miami. But let's wait and see.
The hurricane is about the same width as the entire state of Texas (from Louisiana to New Mexico).
The eye of the hurricane is about 15 miles wide.

The 'worst side' of Irma is the east side (as the storm veers northwards).
So if the eye makes landfall just south of Miami, then the worst impact (for hurricane force winds) might be in the northern suburbs of Miami, up to Fort Lauderdale or even Boca Raton.
But the whole of the east coast of Florida will get a strong lashing from the wind and the rain.

PHOTOS
Building damage and flooding in St Martin.
http://www.reuters.com/news/picture/pictures-report-idUSRTX3F4FN

THESE PHOTOS
are better because they are taken from street level.
Click on the arrows on the main photo at the top of the news story.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/hurricane-irm...-123152060.html

SPECIAL THANKS to all the staff at NOAA and NHC who are doing an excellent job with these hurricane maps and predictions!

"Greatest Evacuation In History" - 650,000 Ordered To Leave Florida

There's an image at the end of the article ...

Note that on that model Irma comes ashore in downtown Miami and then goes off-shore near Melbourne, FL. With that model, Miami gets wiped, then when the storm goes back to sea it can restrengthen and continue a deluge of Florida as it aims for SC. That's a really bad scenario. The NHC model still shows Irma tracking straight up the peninsula which should weaken it.

In either model, Miami gets wiped.

Russ - for sure. If the storm goes back out to sea, that will be very bad news for South Carolina.

If the storm makes landfall between the Keys and Miami, and goes up the center of Florida - then it looks like Hurricane force winds will hit many east coast cities ... all the way from the Keys to West Palm Beach (maybe Cape Canaveral).

BUT - there is also a chance this storm could veer to the west. In which case Fort Myers and Tampa will take the real punishment.

Just the same, Miami was really smart to order a major evacuation.
There is going to be so much rain in southern Florida - the whole place will turn into the Everglades. The commentary from the Air Force Reserve - "a spectacular storm" - really says it all. They flew through the storm, so they should know.

MEANWHILE ...
there are uncertainties about the true arrival time of Irma.
At 11am Eastern time Friday, Irma was 405 miles southeast of Miami and moving at 14 mph. Therefore, landfall in less than 36 hours. Meaning the hurricane could come ashore on Sat evening or midnight. There are uncertainties in the path and speed of the storm, as it makes the "turn" northwards.

The National Weather Service is saying that in lowland areas of southern Florida, people might not be able to return to their homes for weeks or months. Areas will be uninhabitable.

Hurricane Irma has been re-graded to a Cat 5 Hurricane.
++ It is now strengthening. ++

Now 345 miles from Miami, moving at 12 mph.
Therefore, likely to reach Florida on Sun morning.

The latest course will take the storm right through the Florida Keys. Hard to imagine that anyone would "sit this one out" in the Keys. Will Key West even survive???

The ground track has shifted west, the Eye will not go through Miami. It is now forecast to graze the west coast of southern Florida, right past Fort Myers. Looks like vulnerable suburbs in Tampa should be evacuating. And all towns nearby.

Irma has been reduced to a Cat.4 most likely due to Cuba absorbing some of the energy.
Irma Churns along North Cuba Coast
Latest track from NOAA NHC has Irma tracking north just off Florida's west coast (in the Gulf). A little better for the Atlantic coast cities, way worse for the keys and FL gulf coast.

thanks Russ. it seems as if Cuba must have massive destruction from Irma. and the Florida Keys are going to take an enormous pounding too. I wonder if anyone decided to stay at Key West and ignore the evacuation. It's a very risky decision.

I have not seen any notices about Tampa sending out evacuation orders - not clear how the Gulf Coast is responding.

I wonder if it is possible for Irma to avoid the sharp turn to the north (after crossing the Keys), and instead travel on a more westerly course into the Gulf of Mexico?

Our county issued a mandatory evacuation order for everyone living in mobile homes.

Our next door neighbors are bugging out.

Jeanette Isabelle

HERE'S SOMETHING INTERESTING

Live Webcam from the harbor at Key West ...

http://www.keywestharborwebcam.com/

well ... that live Webcam WAS working.
But 10 minutes after I published the link, the # of viewers jumped to more than 30,000. so then the Webcam quit sharing info. Most of these homegrown webcams run off small servers - no bandwidth.

If you search for OTHER WEBCAMS from beaches in Florida, you might be able to find some live pix. good luck!

It's long past time for you to be getting North.

Mom and I are bugging in.

Jeanette Isabelle

this hurricane seems to be sticking close to Cuba, and not making the "expected turn northwards" towards Florida. Maybe at some stage Irma will make a swing away from the Cuban coast, and into the Gulf of Mexico. Apparently, there is something that the computer models are not capturing correctly.

This is VERY GOOD NEWS for Miami and Fort Lauderdale - a big, big break for the east coast of Florida.

But it is VERY BAD NEWS for Cuba and the Florida Keys - they will reap the full wrath of Irma. At this time, Naples, Fort Myers and Tampa are not "off the hook" from the hurricane's destructive impact.

Weather Underground has an excellent summary of Irma's interaction with Cuba and the outlook going forward at: Irma Reorganizes En Route to Devastating Florida Hit

I respectfully submit that you should reconsider and get out immediately.

I really would bug out if I were in the path of the hurricane, but we each make the best decision we can with the circumstance we have. Stay safe, Jeanette and other Floridians!

Can you guys stay in touch with ETS in case of power outage?

Russ

thanks. The Weather Underground had a very nice article.
Before going to bed, I took another look directly at the latest GOES satellite images. Yes, Irma is slowing down, now moving at 6 mph. And that could be a prelude to a change in direction. But it is "swinging very wide" to the west ... it did not make the sudden northwards turn that the computer gurus were expecting. It looks more like Irma will swing in an arc, going into the Gulf of Mexico - and then possibly heading back on a collision course with western Florida. The Florida keys will take a beating. And Tampa Bay shouldn't be breathing any sighs of relief ... not yet.

Definitely Cuba and The Keys will be hammered.

It looks like there will be some computer gurus in metereology - all the grad students working on their PhD's - who will be spending tonight drinking coffee ... and wondering why their predicted ground track went off course. Their predictions across the Virgin Is, Puerto Rico and the approach to Cuba were very good. Something went wrong when Irma was beside Cuba.

Pete, for some insight on the computer models used for predicting Irma's path, take a look at Cliff Mass's blog post from Thursday. Cliff Mass is a professor of meteorology at UDub in Seattle. He usually focuses on Pacific NW weather, but is an expert on these big scale models. He has pointed out in other posts that these models require truly massive computing power.
American Versus European Models and Irma's Big Turn

Today (Saturday) he posted an update: Hurricane Irma Takes a Western Route Northward

It will be interesting to see his analysis after this event.

I don't know how. I have a regular cell phone, not a smart phone.

Jeanette Isabelle

It looks like the storm has turned northwest. It will absolutely ravage the Florida Keys. I can hardly believe that there are a lot of people - including older people - who decided to shelter at Key West. I hope that their building is OK. Who on Earth would decide to stay in that place ... what were they thinking??

Irma will be over warmer Gulf of Mexico waters - which will allow it to strengthen again. This is super BAD news for Tampa Bay, and all the towns on the Gulf Coast of Florida. The most recent path is highly destructive for low-lying areas of Naples and Fort Myers.

AKSAR - big thanks. I will take a look at those Web pages. It seems like Irma is such a big storm, that the computer models are not capturing its true inertia (i.e. its momentum and its angular momentum). It is just not possible for an enormous hurricane to "turn on a dime" - which is what the original models predicted. But I think your point is absolutely correct - they would have to run enormous computer models to capture the whole weather system.

There is a very good argument that NOAA needs better and bigger supercomputers.

UPDATE NEWS / Sunday 10 Sep
A very dangerous day is unfolding in the Florida Keys and much of West Florida,” Michael Brennan, a senior hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center, said in an early morning update Sunday. “It certainly could inundate the entire island. That’s why everyone in the Keys was urged so strongly to evacuate.”

I've PM'd Jeanette_Isabelle. Anyone else who is in the storm zone may PM me for my mobile number. Keep in mind this is intended to stay in touch with ETS and not for any emergency assistance.

Google "Hurricane Irma Crisis Map" and you'll find:
Google's Crisis Map centered on Irma
And,
Real-time Florida Road Closures which uses Google-Maps on your smartphone.

amazingly - a couple of live webcams are STILL working.

go to ... https://www.mybeachcams.com/florida/miami/

choose the 'Port Of Miami Live Webcam'

and you can see what a hurricane looks like. You have to click on the black box in the center of the computer screen (with the words 'Welcome To Port Miami Webcam') - to activate the livestream camera.

Conditions are pretty rough there.

Keep in mind - these links get flooded with viewers after we publish them. so you might want to return later, if it's busy.

high tides on the Gulf Coast - these times for Fort Myers today

early high tide - 6:42 am
late high tide - 7:57 pm

Fort Myers already had its high-risk time (storm surge) early this morning. But Irma will be arriving near Tampa Bay this evening, during the late high tide.

MEANWHILE A LIVE QUOTE
from a person who stayed at Key Largo. It's hard to believe that people do stuff like this ...

John Huston, who was riding out the storm at his Key Largo home, was already seeing flooding in his yard before the arrival of high tide. "Small boats floating down the street next to furniture and refrigerators. Very noisy," he said by text message. "Shingles are coming off."

Thanks for pointing out the crisis map. Moving it around a bit, I note that LA and Ventura counties are under a flash flood advisory for later today. Will the fun ever stop?

It's been raining all day. Earlier the wind was howling but has slowed down. We have a few branches down.

Jeanette Isabelle

Winds continuing to pick up in the Sarasota area. We're supposed to begin getting the hurricane-force windows between 5 and 6PM.

We're supposed to be through the worst of it by early tomorrow and in the clear by noon. We're just waiting to see how long we keep power. Preps in place, this house is at least as well prepared as a public shelter.

It appears that Irma has indeed made the hard right turn as predicted by the models. See: Maps: Where Is Hurricane Irma Over Florida? You can zoom the map out to see the past track.

Apparently the models have predicted the track about as well as can be hoped for with the present state of the art:
Irma Shifting Forecasts: It’s All a Matter of Probability

People should focus more on the "cone of uncertainty" rather than the line in the middle (which is just the average of many separate slightly different model runs).

AKSAR - I agree. It looks like the models did pretty well, all things considered.

That being said, I think that NHC and NOAA will get a little bit of "heat" from politicians. It's bad luck that the state of Florida is long and very narrow. Therefore a "small error" in the predicted ground track places the hurricane on the east coast or the west coast. It's a small error in terms of computational accuracy. But it's a big deal politically, because the authorities are not sure about which big city to evacuate. Evacuation is a super-expensive and difficult process.

It really looks like America needs high-accuracy storm predictions. And that will require much better super computer resources. I am a little surprised that in a major public emergency, NOAA cannot request "backup support" from other agencies with huge supercomputers e.g. the Energy Labs and the intelligence agencies. Other gov departments have huge computer resources. Someone in the GOV needs to look at re-assigning computer resources based on national emergency needs.

I am pretty sure there will be complaints about the accuracy of the forecasts for Irma. However, as a certified geezer, I can assure anyone that what we have now is far better than what was available fifty or even forty years ago (maybe even ten years ago?.

If you want to look at really mistaken forecasting, or almost no forecasting at all, look at what happened to Galveston in 1900 - the death toll is undetermined, but was somewhere around 12,000, perhaps as many as 20,000. The local forecaster had argued against construction of a seawall, since a big hurricane could not occur in the city.

The forecasts I listened to (weather underground) were pretty clear about the probability cone and the uncertainties involved.

Unfortunately, the issue involves much more than just computer resources. The models themselves need to be improved, which in turn requires research and development. And model building, supercomputers, and R & D all require funding. And sometimes bureaucracy gets in the way too.

Cliff Mass has been highly critical of NOAA, the Weather Service, and the US effort in general. A few selected blog posts of his from the recent past:

Make U.S. Numerical Weather Prediction Great (Again) January 10, 2017

U.S. Operational Numerical Weather Prediction: What's Wrong and How it Can Be Fixed. October 23, 2016

To Become World Class, US Operational Numerical Weather Prediction Needs a Strategic Plan July 13, 2016

U.S. Numerical Weather Prediction is Fal... Fixed Quickly? June 21, 2016

The U.S. Weather Prediction Computer Gap February 11, 2013

Hikermore... from Donna in 1962... "oh by the way, we're having a hurricane day after next"

I am surprised they are as accurate as they are.

Presumably the superior accuracy of the European prediction model explains the occasional references to the "European model" mentioned from time to time on weather reports. As long as the info is available, who cares about the source. Some of the other European models are pretty good, as well....

hikermor you sly devil, it took me a minute to get that one!

As some of you may know, I have what is called a "General Anxiety Disorder." At about 7:00 PM I experienced a major anxiety attack. Even after taking 1 MG of Lorazepam, I was calm enough to get stuff done an hour later. Typically an anxiety attack lasts five minutes, ten at the most.

Mom and I moved my mattress into her room, which is more secure. That is where I will sleep tonight. I'll have my bag with me which has a MAG-LITE, first aid kit and medication.

Otherwise, this evening has been uneventful.

Jeanette Isabelle

Hang in there, Jeanette_Isabelle! It sounds like you're well prepared, hopefully it won't be too bad there.

it sounds like things are calmer ... Irma has gone to a Cat 1 storm. Very fortunate for Tampa. The main problem now is the rain and the flooding.

Yeah, it looks like FL caught a major break! Hopefully the next one will stay out to sea.

Hurricane Irma: Dozens of dogs abandoned, left unable to escape

running on the alternator genset....I'm about 35mi north of St Pete... about 90mph straight line and higher gusts... no damage to the house, lots of limbs down... we dodged a big one...I lost power about midnight and got up, watched the storm till about 2:30am... hope all are safe... regards

Glad you're okay LesSnyder.

UPDATE AFTER IRMA

It looks like there is a general pattern to these big hurricanes.
Off-shore islands get hammered.
Meanwhile, the mainland has to deal with major flooding and loss of electrical power.

The real coin toss was the Florida Keys. Here's what they are saying ...

------------------
Officials were still assessing Irma’s impact in the Florida Keys, which may have borne the worst of the storm. After a survey of the islands, Gov. Rick Scott told reporters that he had seen crippling damage there, including countless overturned trailers and many boats washed ashore. Recovery in the Keys would be a “long road,” he said.
“I just hope everybody survived,” Mr. Scott said. “It’s horrible, what we saw.”

Later on Monday, the Defense Department said that damage to the Keys was so extensive that it might be necessary to evacuate the 10,000 residents who rode out the storm on the islands.
-------------------

I still can hardly believe that 10,000 people "waited it out" on the Keys. I understand that most of Key West had slight damage ... just felled trees. But that was only because the Eye of Hurricane Irma passed closer to the mainland. If the Eye had been on the ocean-side of Key West, this story might have had a much sadder ending.

I think that the authorities did everything - and said everything - they could ... ahead of time. But I have serious doubts about human nature.

At the risk of sounding insensitive, how much is it going to cost to evacuate the 10,000 nitwits who were too thick-headed to leave? I will cut some slack for folks on the mainland who might have decided to ride it out - that's a judgement call that could have gone either way. But no slack for the folks in The Keys who were knowingly right in the bullseye, with no hope for a good outcome. They were warned well in advance. None the less, they were welcome to stay. But not welcome to expect me to pay (for their rescue). I will gladly give to general hurricane relief efforts though.

I realize that it is not politically correct to hold people accountable for their own actions. But I am not politically correct.

What do we know about the people who stayed in the Florida Keys? Did they have the resources to bug out? Did they have transportation, some money, and the ability to move, or were they destitute? Were they tied down by a family member who was so sick that she/he could not be relocated? Or were they well-off and just didn't want to leave their fancy houses for fear of looters?

Some people risked losing their job if they evacuated. It seems that at least one major employer in Florida held their employees until rather late. Sure, some people just make bad life decisions, but I wouldn't be so quick to pass judgment without knowing the whole story.

The people who stayed in the Keys were "Conchs", and "Conchs" don't ever leave the Keys.

BTW: Evacuation busses were provided.

Wildman

So are you saying ... there are human shells? Hahahaha!
Maybe you can explain this "Conch's" thing a bit more.
I'm laughing.

I am not surprised that some people stayed in the Keys.
But I am blown away that roughly 10,000 people did this.
Just insane.

Here´s a good explanation: https://www.conchtourtrain.com/conch.html

The Keys are now The Conch Republic. Formed as a Republic due tin the INS blockade placed on the mainland in the mid 80's. War was formally declared in CONgress, and a surrender followed 5 min later. Then the Conch Republic requested aid to repair all of the war damages that the blockade had inflicted. You should look up the flag of the ConchRepublic, You'll love it!!!

Don't exaggerate, it was one minute later -- History of the Conch Republic

They don't teach this in history class any more.

Determining whether a person deserves to be saved is contentious, difficult and time-consuming. In the ER, we gave up trying to make these determinations, and worked on a "Save 'em all, let God sort it out" basis.

I'll get back to the Conch Republic in a minute ...

First. I said there were going to be "recrminations" about why those weather forecast models were wrong about Irma. The fun starts now ...

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies...ocid=spartandhp

News is quoting this "weather prediction mistake" as a $150 billion error. OUCH! That kind of accusation stings ... just a little bit.

I agree with other comments here - that overall the track predictions for Irma were pretty good. They only thing they missed was the exact place where the storm would turn north. Unfortunately, that small mistake has a big effect on where the storm goes in Florida.

Really ... Florida should be celebrating. But any time that big money gets involved ... it's not a picnic.

I'm quoting from dusty archived brain hard drive that is heavily fractured. Give me some slack for being in error of 4 minutes....

The Conch Republic flags can be found on EBay, I think.

Now back to the Conch's ...

I guess I didn't realize that these people have their own identity - not to mention their own flag . :-)

I guess all I can say is this. I have driven on the Keys as far as Key Largo. That was a long time ago. But it's a pretty long drive to get out there (never made it all the way to Key West. Maybe some day in the future). Key Largo is OK on a nice day ... not spectacular. But OK. I remember some rocks, a few blades of grass, and some palm trees. I don't remember any piece of land higher than about 8-10 feet above sea level - if that. I can't even begin to imagine being at a place like that during a tropical storm, let alone a major hurricane. I guess I must not have the mindset of a Conch.

This time the Conch's got lucky. Real lucky.
But if they keep this "I won't go" mentality, sooner or later the US Government is going to need a few thousand body bags for these folks.

If the Conch Republic really want to sit out these storms, they need to invest in a special Disaster Safety Shelter made from high strength reinforced concrete - somewhere at Key West.

I understand that the Cajun Navy is already sending supplies to Florida. You Floridians need to remember the following about Cajuns:

1. Never get between a Cajun and his beer.
2. Never get between a Cajun and the nearest bathroom/outhouse.
3. Never put your hands or fingers too close to a Cajun's mouth. Cajun's make better lovers because they will eat darn near anything!
4. Eat a Cajun's prepared meal with lots of beer. Ask what the meal was after you've eaten.

Free transportation was available I believe. Free shelters on the mainland were available I believe. Free donations of clothing and food are coming in. Money to start the repairs and rebuild is coming in. Sure, that would be rough living, and it would really suck, but it would be living. And temporary. Things will get better.

If they're so sick that they can't be moved, how does "So sick they can't be moved, AND under ten feet of water, AND with a demolished yacht in the rubble pile that used to be their house, AND with no electricity, water, or sewer, AND without functional medical infrastructure like hospitals and ambulances" play out for them?

On the other hand, there is some cheering and clapping:

http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-irma-prepared-20170912-story.html

The article cites a study that traces the decline in hurricane related deaths from 1400 per decade (1910-1939) to 700 deaths per decade(1940-1969) to 250 deaths per decade (1970-1999). Omitted from the figures are the fatalities from the 1900 Galveston storm, which are not known, but were somewhere around 12,000 - the greatest loss of life in a natural disaster in US history. All of this occurred despite increasing coastal development over this period.

Frankly, I saw nothing in the predictive models which would have suggested that Tampa was "safe." I would have vacated the entire peninsula, hung a left when I reached I-10, and not stopped until arrival, in Arizona , or at least west Texas. But I would do that even without a hurricane....

You weren't aware of this fact when you made the post condemning those who stayed. My response merely pointed out a shortcoming in your reasoning process, cautioning you not to jump to conclusions before you have the facts. What you're doing now is pointing out that even a broken clock is right twice a day, which is something that I can agree with you on. However, I normally don't incriminate myself, and I warmly recommend that for you, too!

I myself was quite suspicious that there could be 10,000 destitute people in the Keys without the resources to get out, but I knew nothing of the Conch Republic. Better to play it safe.

It might be worth noting that we are not out of the woods on this disaster quite yet. Cleanup activities post disaster ring up a large number of injuries and fatalities (carbon monoxide, chainsaws, etc). There is also the logistical challenge of returning the evacuees - not a simple task.

I am not going to second guess anyone's decision faced with hurricane Irma. There are abundant risks whichever choice you make, and individual circumstances vary considerably.

Just for the record, I would probably have left. I enjoy extended camping trips.....

A long haul for residents now. More that 50% of homes without power. And it may take weeks to get everyone "up and running" with electricity again.

But overall ... Florida came out pretty well. This could have been much, much worse.

I don't have a problem with how authorities handled this. I think they did the best with all the information they had. Every resident who wanted to get to safety ... had a chance to go to a shelter or a safer city.

Which option is better ...
To do what Houston did - and leave people in flooded neighborhoods?
Or to do what Florida died - and try to get people out of zones that could be a "ground zero" for a hurricane?

This will be debated for a long time.
I am thankful that the casualties were few - that is an answer to many prayers.

Point taken. But notice that you are jumping to conclusions yourself. "You weren't aware of this fact when you made the post..." Yes, actually I was. I didn't state that in that earlier post, but I was none the less aware of it. I didn't state that the Earth is round and the sky is blue either, but I'm aware of those things as well.

When I spoke of the "nitwits who were too thick-headed to leave", I was speaking about the ones who chose not to leave, not the ones who for some reason could not leave. I thought that was obvious by my comment, but maybe not.

Not that I ever had a choice (I can't control how my tax payments are spent), but if I did, I would still chose to pay to rescue nitwits. They don't deserve to die for their actions, stupid as they may be. But I would want to lecture them on their stupidity WHILE helping them. I wouldn't raise them up as heroes. I will now specifically state that I am not talking about the people who could not leave. I thought that was understood/obvious in my original post, but since it wasn't, I'll explicitly state it this time.

Free transport does not mean you can get out. The problem are not the healthy and mobile people, they generally survive, unless they do something stupid or have bad luck.

The problem are the less mobile and poor people. The ones that are disabled, but not in care facilities. So depending on them self, but with an emergency, they just are not mobile enough to do something about it and too poor to hire somebody. If you lack somebody to take care of you then than they have a big problem.

These are generally represented in the 65+ category. In Katherina, the majority of deaths are in that poorer 65+ category.

Here are questions to ponder at some time when the definitive data are available:

What was the fatality/injury rate among those who elected to stay on the keys during Irma? How does that compare with those who evacuated?

So far, I have not seen anything about large numbers of fatalities among those who remained, nor, for that matter, anything about incidents among the evacuees. Indeed, the number of fatalities (somewhere in the mid-50s) seems quite low considering the population at risk in this storm.

Presumably one would leave because remaining would expose one to a significant chance of dying. If that is not the case, there is a significant advantage to sheltering in place - nothing works like home field advantage...

An interesting article at WaPo: The deadliest period of a hurricane? After it’s over.

Meanwhile Five Dead After Florida Nursing Home Goes Without Air Conditioning After Irma

EDIT: Death toll at nursing home now up to six: 6 dead at South Florida nursing home as state grapples with heat and outages after Irma

This is always hard to say as the group that stays has a very different make up than those who choose to leave. So you cannot compare the different groups directly.

Also there is always a discussion on how do those who die, would have faired differently if they where not there. How did staying effected them? And would they have died regardlessly?

A different example that demonstrates that issue are heatwaves; heatwaves can cause an increase of premature death among older people, but if you look at a year average, these increase are often not visible. Which kind of indicates that it takes out people earlier, but those people where likely to have died soon anyways.

Also the reason to leave might not to be avoid death, but also has a lot to do with comfort. Nobody want to stay in misery.

Interesting observation. My wife (works in orthopedics) has a similar theory/observation about the elderly and hip fractures. Often times, a hip fracture late in life is the harbinger of death within six months. Life expectancy can be short after such a fracture in the elderly. Theories of why this is are abundant - loss of mobility, slow healing at age, physical inactivity due to pain/mechanical issues, depression, etc. My wife's theory is that the hip fracture does not cause the typical short lifespan thereafter, but is more a single event in an already-in-motion chain of events that would ultimately lead to death anyways. Just a theory. But similar in concept to what Tjin expressed above. [ Often times hips are surgically repaired in the elderly not for long term recovery, but for pain relief and comfort during the time that is left. ]

Rather than start a new thread, Hurricane Jose continues to spin in the Atlantic and is forecast to track north into open water and degrade to a tropical storm.

Russ - yes I was watching Jose too. The computer models did exceptionally well with that storm.

We are roughly halfway through Hurricane Season.
I wonder if we will see any more serious hurricanes? I am sure that the people living in the French islands in the Caribbean and also the British Virgin Islands ... don't want to see another storm for a long time. They might get lucky.

As a starting point, you can measure the outcomes of these decisions, roughly, to be sure, since the figures will be somewhat inexact. I agree with you completely that there is more to the analysis than just that gross figure - but it is a starting point.

I would hope that procedures followed during Harvey and Irma will be studied carefully and will provide useful guidance for future disasters affecting very large populations. Certainly we would all bet a higher grade for these recent hurricanes than for Katrina and Ike...

Reading the WaPo article, it reinforces my suspicion that substandard care may be the real culprit here. Having recently treated a heat exhaustion victim successfully with only wet rags , I can't imagine how a better equipped facility can't keep patients from dying (unless they were terminal or near terminal anyway. It will be worthwhile to keep an eye on this investigation.

Yes, clearly substandard care. Police are investigating it as a criminal matter. Death toll is now up to 8: Eight Dead After Florida Nursing Home Goes Without Air Conditioning After Irma

Note that the nursing home is right across the street from a major hospital (not affiliated). Fortunately, after several emergency patients came in from the nursing home, hospital staff checked for themselves. What they found was a classic MCI (Mass Casualty Incident).

Pictures in UK media of the nursing home tragedy suggest that some patients had been moved to the outside air, which was probably a bit cooler than indoors without air conditioning.

In hot and humid places like Florida, such facilities really ought to have generators able to supply air conditioning.

Media reports are seldom accurate about anything technical, but reading between the lines, I suspect that the nursing home had no utility service for some days, as would be expected in the aftermath of a major hurricane.
It seems that a generator WAS available but not for air conditioning.
It might of course be that power WAS available but that the air conditioning was damaged by the storm. A tree landing on an external chiller or condensing unit would do it.

Cliff Mass has a new blog post, comparing the performance of various models for Irma: The Hurricane Irma Forecast: Triumph or Disappointment?

First the good news. Overall, the predictions were very good, far surpassing anything that could have been done even a few years ago.
The bad news is that the US models, while improved, are still clearly inferior to the European model, which has improved at about the same rate.

I am not knowledgeable in weather forecasting, but is weather modeling an Olympic event? If the results of the European model are available, why are there competing models? Is hemispheric pride at stake? If money is spent on refining models, why not more collaboration? (granted that competition is often healthy...)

If you ask me, all these models look pretty good, but more refined models will always be appreciated.....

Different models; different preditions. I actually like weather reports that compares different models and show there margin of error.

There are also different resolutions for different weathermodels.

I think the issue that Dr. Mass is calling attention to involves much more than just hurricane forecasts. I think his point is that US weather modeling in general is falling behind.

There is a whole range of models, of varying scales in time and distance. Some, like the "European Model" (ECMWF), are global scale models for forecasting major weather systems for the next week or so. Other smaller regional models are for more local weather. Still other long term models are for long term climate change issues. If hikermor is worried about hurricanes interfering with his trip next week to Disneyworld, the ECMWF is a good one. On the other hand, if hikermor wants to know if Santa Anna winds will mess with this afternoon's bike ride, the ECMWF is probably of limited help.

The ECMWF is produced (and funded) by a consortium of European countries. While it is global in scale (to predict large scale weather systems), the consortium is naturally most interested in weather systems that will impact Europe. Also, there are restrictions on what is made available to the public, and to non member nations.
I think that Mass's point is that the US could be leading the world in this area, with much better forecasts for both large scale regional events like hurricanes, and also smaller scale but still important local events like thunderstorms and tornados. We are capable of doing much better than we currently are.

I think the experience with Irma might be a game changer for them ... they've got a good argument that the USA needs to beef up its technology. I think that the President will get the point ... this is nothing to play around with.

BTW, there are 2 more new storms out in the Atlantic now. too early to tell what might grow out of them. But one is marked as a potential risk for a hurricane.