Maximums of Maximums

The Atlantic has just posted an interesting new article online: The Mothers of All Disasters.

On an individual, or family level, it comes down to cost effectiveness. It is insanely simple to prepare for fairly routine mishaps and become self-sufficient for 72 hours. It isn't even that difficult to become OK for seven days or so. People who contemplate a year or so of independence are going to be investing significant resources in their preps. Draw the line wherever you desire.

For me, a big time disaster essentially means I get to go on an impromptu camping trip, using all the stuff I have accumulated over a lifetime spent in the outdoors one way or another.

Analyze the hazards pertinent to your locale (I need to prep for earthquakes, but not tornadoes or hurricanes), and allot your resources accordingly.

Getting government entities to address disaster preparedness rationally is a whole different problem, but one wonders if some percentage of our mammoth defense budget could not be shifted toward disasters and the repair/upgrading of infrastructure...

The problem with MoMs or "worst case scenarios" is that they seldom are. Things can get much worse then we imagine or plan for -- See Katrina or Fuskushima. A better term might be 'Bad Case Scenario.'

Pretty much. The bulk of the routine stuff (computer crashes, flat tires, power outrages, etc.) are one-and-done purchases just requiring routine maintenance. As a single purchase, it's daunting, but spread out over the years, it's surprisingly affordable. I've found the limiting factor for preparedness to be the cost of replacing short shelf life supplies, like food which goes bad after a year or so.

True enough. Katrina and Fukushima were pretty bad but still far from a worst case scenario like all-out nuclear war, global natural disaster or deadly epidemic. Not saying that one should live in constant fear of a TEOTWAWKI scenario but recent experience suggests that even the most prosperous countries on Earth have serious issues dealing with large-scale emergencies.

I don't even want to know what might happen in an actual "MoM" situation. But I daresay it would be way worse than Katrina, Fukushima or Chernobyl - and way beyond what we could fix quickly with our existing resources and emergency preparedness strategies.

Curiously enough, I don't think that most developed Western countries are equipped to deal with that sort of scenario. I can't quite resists the impression that the overall level of emergency preparedness was a lot higher during the Cold War.

Good point. Having been around at that time, we had the Civil Defence Agency, duck and cover, a thriving industry building fallout shelters, and the like - but all for one specific type of disaster - one which we approached all too closely on occasion. But we were still woefully unprepared for the possibility of an asteroid impact - a Chicxulub event like that that ended the reign of the dinosaurs 65 million years ago, according to some who have studied the impact, generating a five kilometers high. That would cause a very bad day for most of us.

At some point, the possible really, really bad events that could occur are so horrific and so rare that it just isn't worth concern.

Incidentally, in checking around on asteroid impacts, I found that one predicted for this September, is considered to be meritless by NASA. I certainly hope so. I have big plans for late September and I just don't have time for a MOM....

Ditto that. My only concern is water supply in CA (I doubt I could ever store so much water). Long shelf life food preps does not seem neither hard to do, nor expensive, especially if you are into cannery and dehydrating science.

On the personal level, as already mentioned, you have to plan for what you can't plan for. Second one I always recommend, in the unlikely event someone actually asks me for advice, it would be to prepare for a day without electricity. That gets people thinking.

C-Span or one of the PBS stations had an interview with Craig Fugate, FEMA Administrator, on the 10th anniversary of Katrina, and asked him of his "worst case" scenarios... good insight as to how FEMA has changed post Katrina, and what it is charged with doing by Congress

Sometimes, events occur almost simultaneously, or one event causes the other, compounding a bad situation. Far from a MOM event, but this past winter, events in our area combined forces to create disaster events that caught local emergency services off guard. The local forecast at that time can be found here

This event was on the tail end of one of the worst winters our area has experienced in quite some time. The snow falls may seem small, but many counties were running low or completely out of salt to treat roads due to heavy snows in previous months. The flooding was a major concern, as people were having to evacuate from their homes as the waters rose and the snow fell, and emergency services had both events to contend with.

Keep in mind also, this was AFTER we received heavy snow fall in february, nearly 2 foot. While for some folks this would be just like any other winter, for us it was nearly catastrophic. We're just not used to getting that much snow at once. The problems from this snow event were compounded by the widespread water outages it caused, not to mention the power outages.

Needless to say, emergency services were pushed to their limits. It wasn't that they weren't prepared to handle the events, they just weren't prepared to handle the compounded effects of multiple events occurring at once. A positive that came out of this is that local officials are revisiting and reevaluating their emergency and disaster scenarios.

this reminds me of a related exercise; there are situations that happen slowly, and those that happen quickly.

Thanks for linking to that article AKSAR. Always good to see a spotlight on the dangers.

I do wish the reporter had included at least a paragraph with practical information on basic preps (such as water storage) that could make a huge difference for people in the days/weeks following a disaster.

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MOM is not all that imaginary for some.

Syrian refugees for example have seen monsters called (ISIS) kill and burn most anyone who does not subscribe to their views. Leaving homecountry and losing family members is within the definition of TETOWAWKI or MOMs in my opinion.

It is now the nightmare that I think of and cannot figure out a solution or prep. I am 60 something now , and even running some distance is not easy for me. I try to store some preps here and there , but what if those monsters reach our area.

Alien attack is not too imaginary afterall

Cash on hand and travel paperwork in order. Given your age, you would have to be among the first wave of refugees. Otherwise, you may be stuck waiting for transportation. I don't think that cross country treks are really an option anymore.

Let me add to that a reliable vehicle, a full tank of gas, and enough information about your area to be able to get out as soon as it becomes apparent that it's time to do so.

Let me get back on the original article. Personally I find that such scenarios used on table top exercise to be counter productive or atleast not the best way to train people.

- Many just don't take such huge scenarios as serious anymore, because it's over the top, doesn't feel realistic or 'won't matter if that much happens'.
- Since massive scenario's can't be solved nicely, it always means it's never finished nicely, leaving the students with a bad after taste, which reduces the effectiveness how they can reflect and learn from a exercise.
- Small numbers (victims, resources, etc) are tanglable, massive numbers are just statistics and seem to matter less.
- Crisis management is about proper information gathering, communication, resouce management and dicision making. The goal of exercise should be to training peopls skills and identify where skills and procedures lack, so they can improve them. Having huge scenario's means you can't really focus on these things.

However my experience comes from training people up to a multiregional level, not as big as those Maximums of Maximums training incidents.