"Oregon Resilience Plan"

Earlier this year, Oregon's "Seismic Safety Policy Advisory Commission" issued a report to the state legislature called the "Oregon Resilience Plan." It is a worthwhile read for anyone interested in preparedness -- especially in areas vulnerable to massive earthquakes (the entire west coast and the New Madrid Fault zone). Among the findings of Oregon's current state of non-readiness is anticipated time needed to recover basic services. For background, "The Valley" includes all of Oregon's major cities (Portland, Salem, Eugene):

Electricity

The Valley: 1 - 3 months
Coast: 3 - 6 months

Water & Sewer

The Valley: 1 month to 1 year
Coast: 1 - 3 years

Top Priority Highways

The Valley: 6 - 12 months

Healthcare facilities

The Valley: 18 months
Coast: 3 years

It was not until the 1980s that scientists began to discover that the Cascadia Subduction Zone is an active threat. When I lived there, no one was mindful of an earthquake threat. Since the 1990s, much has been discovered about the history of the CSZ and ever since more and more information emerges -- seemingly all of it more concerning than was previously known.


http://www.oregon.gov/OMD/OEM/osspac/docs/Oregon_Resilience_Plan_Executive_Summary_Final.pdf


"Resilience gaps of this magnitude reveal a harsh truth: a policy of business as usual implies a post-earthquake future that could consist of decades of economic and population decline – in effect, a “lost generation” that will devastate our state and ripple beyond Oregon to affect the regional and national economy."


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For anyone interested in the emerging picture of earthquake risk in the Pacific Northwest, a good read is Sandi Doughton's new book Full-Rip 9.0: The Next Big Earthquake in the Pacific Northwest . It is well written, and explains how the scientific evidence for a major Cascadia subduction earthquake has gradualy emerged. She also explains the risk associted with other less known features such as the Seattle Fault.

A somewhat more technical but still understandable book about how a past Cascadia earthquake was linked to a major tsunami in Japan is available online at The Orphan Tsunami of 1700: Japanese Clues to a Parent Earthquake in North America, also published in paperback by University of Washington Press

I expect to see a force 9+ seismic event somewhere along the west coast, from San Diego anywhere all the way up to Anchorage. What I am unsure of is exactly where the next event will be. They are all passed due. I wonder what the odds are of a "Chain Event"?

The charming thing about quakes is that they are inevitably coming, but just when is beyond our predictive abilities right now. The next major event might be five minutes, or five decades (or even further) away. There is no guarantee that future events will follow the patterns or timing of the past, either.

The only thing we do know is that if it happened in the past it will probably happen again. It's a miracle that there hasn't been a huge one in the span of time that the area has been heavily populated by Westerners.

Well, there was, in '64, up in Anchorage, but you'd have to be older than 50 to even remember it. You can look up the pictures, though. I work in a building (the Alaska Railroad Depot building in downtown Anchorage) that stood through that earthquake with nary a scratch. Thick reinforced concrete walls, and sitting at the base of a slough must've been what saved it. Who knows? I sit on the 2nd floor of three, and it crosses my mind what would happen if another big one hit, which everyone says is passed due here. I sit next to a rather thick wall pillar, so it's either glom up against it, or bail out the window across the room. Standard advice is to not try and leave the building, but find a secure wall to get up against and ride it out. My desk is too flimsy for any sort of protection.

I never felt that the Seattle/Tacoma area was very secure at all. I think they are in much worse condition for a catastrophe due to the way they've built up their cities, the population levels, and the geologic features that will wreak havoc if a seismic event releases their hazards. I don't think there's one safe place along the west side of the Cascade mountain range in the event of a major seismic event.

Do you mean something like a Massive Solar Storm, which leads to an Electrical Grid Black Start with Nuclear power stations going the way of Fukishima, the solar storm geomagnetic anomaly initiates the 9+ Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake along the whole fault line leading to Tsunami along most of western coast of the USA. From this event there is increased volcanism resulting in a couple of Mount St Helens events and of course not forgetting a Caldera event at Yellowstone, the release of the magma bubble pressure then initiates the Madrid fault Earthquake resulting in a 8.5M on the same day as the side of the Cumbre Vieja slips into the North Atlantic and the Banks decide to have a months Bank Holiday!

Now, whats the chances of that happening?

Edit, Did I mention the Asteroid or another Clovis Comet?

Just wait for Planet X -- all that stuff will happen at once, no need to wait while a chain event takes its time, aka (Cascade failure)

It appears the Cascadia subduction zone is very real. We may be waiting a long while yet for the "Big One" in the PNW, that doesn't mean it isn't there. We wait for the Big One in SOCAL too, will one trigger the other or will one relieve the stress and keep the other waiting?

I am not aware of any plausible mechanism whereby a solar storm would cause an earthquake.
Either is a potentialy most serious event, but I see no linkage.

There is some evidence that a severe earthquake could lead to other earthqaukes.

Of course if a severe solar storm followed a bad earthqauke, recovery would be even more challenging, but this would be exceedingly bad luck, not cause and effect.

adam2,
If you watch enough TV, you'll quickly see plausible mechanisms are not needed for a disaster.

Precisely!

and wouldn't it be a grand ride at that?

Well, solar activity can effect our geomagnetic field, even disrupt it. You get some weird fields moving through large iron masses, and that can create tension and possibly motion. So there could be some connection.

But I am more inclined to think seismic events could link and chain just on their own volition. IIRC, there was something on the boobtube that showed such a connection in some cases based on an analysis of recent seismic activity along the San Andreas.

i'm in general agreement with Benjamin.

I have come to the conclusion that OR might be more at risk than CA for the next serious quake. especially the southern half of OR (and top 1/4 of California) due to a quake on the southern Cascadia fault. I couldn't predict how big, but would not be surprised at 8 or 8.5. it will be rough on the coastal towns. but seismologists have been trying to get the message out.

if OR goes down, then I think a large quake on the southern San Andreas (epicenter near Palm Springs) will follow. So CA will be hit ... not too much later.

the worst-case event is that these two quakes link up - a possibility that seismologists used to deny until they were blue in the face. but I noticed that Caltech scientists changed their minds in the last year, and admit a "chain reaction" quake could happen. in that case, if the Cascadia and San Andreas do join up then Benajmin will get his "wish" ... a massive quake of 9 or 9.5 that travels for hundreds of miles. If that happens, take your World Atlas off your bookshelf and cross off the entire west coast of the USA. it won't be worth contemplating.

Pete2