Earthqauke in Japan

Posted by: stevenpd

Earthqauke in Japan - 03/11/11 05:34 AM

Major Earthquake in Japan. Originally reported at 7.9, then upgraded to 8.8. Tsunami alert has been issued for area.

Earthquake Details

* This is a computer-generated message -- this event has not yet been reviewed by a seismologist.

Magnitude 8.8
Date-Time

* Friday, March 11, 2011 at 05:46:23 UTC
* Friday, March 11, 2011 at 02:46:23 PM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 38.322°N, 142.369°E
Depth 24.4 km (15.2 miles) set by location program
Region NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Distances 130 km (80 miles) E of Sendai, Honshu, Japan
178 km (110 miles) E of Yamagata, Honshu, Japan
178 km (110 miles) ENE of Fukushima, Honshu, Japan
373 km (231 miles) NE of TOKYO, Japan
Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 13.5 km (8.4 miles); depth fixed by location program
Parameters NST=350, Nph=351, Dmin=416.3 km, Rmss=1.46 sec, Gp= 29°,
M-type="moment" magnitude from initial P wave (tsuboi method) (Mi/Mwp), Version=A
Source

* USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)

Event ID usc0001xgp
Posted by: fooman

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/11/11 08:52 AM

No Tsunami alert in Malaysia yet, but we've been advised to stay away from Coastal areas here in Borneo

http://www.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2011/3/11/nation/20110311170110&sec=nation
Posted by: Dagny

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/11/11 09:50 AM

God help everyone in that area and around the Pacific who may be affected by a tsunami.

Incomprehensible destructive force. The video and photos coming out of there -- especially the tsunami -- are stunning. Tokyo is severely affected as well. I've been on the 23rd floor of a hotel there when a minor tremor occurred and the sway was visible. Cannot imagine being in that city for this. Thoughts and prayers for everyone in that region.

U.S. west coasters be on the lookout, Oregon is anticipating tsunami waves as high as 6 feet. 300 years ago, Japan experienced waves from the estimated 9.0 quake that hit off the Pacific Northwest, that's how the date of that quake was pinpointed despite the sparse population at that time.


http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110311/ap_on_re_as/as_japan_earthquake

"...the magnitude 8.9 offshore quake was followed by at least 19 aftershocks, most of them of more than magnitude 6.0."

"...Even for a country used to earthquakes, this one was of horrific proportions. It unleashed a 23-foot (7-meter) tsunami that swept boats, cars, buildings and tons of debris miles inland."


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424..._LEFTTopStories

The quake, one of the five biggest in history with a magnitude of 8.9, caused mass panic around Tokyo, where workers evacuated their buildings and power was cut off at 4.1 million households in Tokyo and neighboring prefectures.

...Twitter proved to be one of the best ways to contact loved ones and get updates on the quake.

Unable to use cellphones, many used their smartphones to tune into television broadcasts and find out what had happened.


Posted by: LED

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/11/11 10:40 AM

Unbelievable destruction. And more trouble. From msnbc.

Quote:

TOKYO — The Japanese government issued a state of emergency at a nuclear power plant Friday after a cooling system failure in the wake of the giant earthquake and tsunami off the east coast of the Pacific nation.

An administrator at the Tohoku Electric Power Co's Onagawa facility said the process for the cooling reactor is "not going as planned," adding that "nuclear emergency situation" has been declared. The company asked people nearby to stay calm, the official TV news channel NHK reported.
Posted by: MartinFocazio

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/11/11 11:25 AM

I have friends in Northern Japan....my friend's son lives there. Also know people in Bali.. Worried.
Posted by: MartinFocazio

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/11/11 11:27 AM

By the way, you can skip the CNN online coverage - they are running COMMERCIALS on the video clips.
I'm finding vastly better coverage on Al-Jazeera. Twitter - at a macro level - is giving a great "tone of the situation" model.

If this isn't the ultimate SHTF scenario, I don't know what is.
Posted by: bacpacjac

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/11/11 12:06 PM

apparently therr was a quake in china yesterdsy to, on the border with myanmar.
Posted by: Arney

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/11/11 12:21 PM

I know people in Tokyo so I'm a bit worried, too. It's still 5am here, so I just got up and heard the news. The news coverage is annoying me--everything is about Hawaii or here on the West Coast so far, and I'm interested in Japan news!
Posted by: comms

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/11/11 01:59 PM

I woke up right when the first reports came through the 24 news feeds in the US. Watched for a few hours. I was in a 8.1 on Guam which has made me sensitive to the earthquake situations. Our building was split but there was no tsunami. Over the course of the next few months, the aftershocks, usually 4-6.0 moved the entire island a foot.

I certainly hope that 1st responders are able to help those that need it and can get infrastructure secured and power up quickly.
Posted by: Pete

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/11/11 02:14 PM

Checking in from Los Angeles.

First, my deepest condolences and prayers to the people of Japan who lost friends and relatives. That is very sad.

Out here in Los Angeles things are calm. None of the locals who live here are taking the tsunami risk seriously. Just another day in California. My guess is that maybe we might see a 2-foot wave. It could be actually visible this morning, but only because the sea is very calm and flat on Friday morning.

Our local media are doing their normal fear mongering. "Hidden danger in the water!!!". This actually works against them, and they cannot comprehend why nobody is listening to them. The California surfers have blown off the media entirely. Those guys are out on their surfboards in the ocean. A few foreign tourists are a bit freaked out, but the locals here are just heading off to work. The beaches are closed as a precaution, but I expect no damage of any kind from the wave.

UPDATE: Just after 8 am here. Some beaches are closed (e.g. beaches in Orange County), but other beaches are open (L.A. County beaches remain open). Good call by the L.A. County lifeguards! Based on the little helpful info that we are receiving - which came from a radio broadcast by the way, and not the local TV media - the wave should have arrived at this time. Not much activity to report. Barely visible on the beachcams, if at all - but there may be a slight time delay on the tsunami. Meanwhile, we've got local TV reporters standing on hills with TV cameras telling the public to bail out and head for high ground. Give me a break. One day this "dumbed down" journalism is going to cost some lives, because when we do have a critical emergency nobody will take these guys seriously.

other Pete
Posted by: TeacherRO

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/11/11 03:23 PM

Wave expected on the east coast (US) in the next 15 to 45 mins
Posted by: MartinFocazio

Re: Earthquake in Japan - 03/11/11 03:51 PM

Massive fires now...all the debris is igniting. I have a live feed from NHK. This is the worst thing I've ever seen. I was watching a life feed and 12 people were trying to outrun the debris....they didn't make it.
Posted by: MarkO

Re: Earthquake in Japan - 03/11/11 04:00 PM

We have a lot of Japanese nationals at my worksite. Has to be hard on them.
Posted by: Teslinhiker

Re: Earthquake in Japan - 03/11/11 04:07 PM

Watching the coverage on several news feeds right now. The damage is almost beyond comprehension.

Just read this and not to take away from the damage and suffering in the recent Christchurch earthquake. The earthquake in Japan really puts the scale of it into perspective...

The quake was nearly 8,000 times stronger than one that struck New Zealand late last month, devastating the city of Christchurch.

Msnbc website link
Posted by: MarkO

Re: Earthquake in Japan - 03/11/11 04:10 PM

Did people not have enough time to evacuate or do they not have a warning system set up there ?
Posted by: unimogbert

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/11/11 04:40 PM

Originally Posted By: TeacherRO
Wave expected on the east coast (US) in the next 15 to 45 mins



Really?

Why? (and who says so?)
Posted by: MartinFocazio

Re: Earthquake in Japan - 03/11/11 04:47 PM

Japan has the most advanced early-warning and mass-alerting system on the planet. The sirens were sounding, but as you can see from the videos, the speed of the water was far higher than anyone could get away, excepting by air. This is not a scale that humans can manage. If you saw the video of the massive wave pushing a pile of flaming debris through farms and buildings, you'd see that there simply isn't any way to get away fast enough.

The quake was close to the shore, shallow, vast in size, and so powerful that even if you had 30 minutes warning, you would not have been able to get away.

You can't outrun this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4w27IczOTk
Posted by: Mark_R

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/11/11 05:02 PM

Originally Posted By: MartinFocazio
I have friends in Northern Japan....my friend's son lives there. Also know people in Bali.. Worried.


Same here. I have inlaws living outside of Tokyo.
Posted by: Pete

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/11/11 05:19 PM

First, if anyone finds any long-length news footage from Japan - please post a link here. It seems that all we are getting in the USA is chopped up parts of news footage from Japan. Just enough to be sensationalistic -but not enough facts. I was watching video of the large tsunami wave that was speading through the city of Iwanuma - but the video cut out before we could see what happened to cars and trucks driving on a road (right in front of the wave). So please post links to longer media footage from Japan - if you find any.

I find myself also wondering about the tsunami sirens in Japan - how good was the automatic warning? If the earthquake was about 100 miles off the coast, that should have given the emegerncy system about 10 minutes lead time (100 miles divided by a tsunami speed of 600 miles per hour = 10 mins). Maybe somewhat less time, depending upon coastline and the fault lines. But still enough time for the sirens to trigger, and also emergency messages to go out over the radio. Did that happen effectively?

other Pete

Posted by: Arney

Re: Earthquake in Japan - 03/11/11 05:25 PM

Originally Posted By: MartinFocazio

Personally, I find that particular video clip to be the most chilling of the ones they keep showing on the news. In most of these tsunami clips, you never know if there are people inside these cars or buildings that get swept away, but in the last 15 seconds of that particular clip, in the upper right, you can see a string of cars racing along that road so you know for a fact that there are people in those vehicles trying to get away as the water is churning towards them.
Posted by: Arney

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/11/11 05:50 PM

Originally Posted By: Pete
But still enough time for the sirens to trigger, and also emergency messages to go out over the radio. Did that happen effectively?

Pete, you might be interested in this AP clip by an AP correspondent if you haven't seen it already. Although I have worked in Japan, I didn't realize that they have an earthquake early warning system so maybe it's new. The correspondent mentions that just before the shaking started, there was actually a warning on TV. But that was Tokyo. I doubt that the people in Sendai had any lead time at all from that same system. I forget if it was the P wave or the S wave of an earthquake that travels faster than the other. Anyway, the farther away you are form the epicenter, the more lead time.

Actually, I raised the topic of an earthquake early warning gadget a while ago on ETS, and most folks seemed to think it was ridiculous and wondered why anyone would buy one. Seemed to make perfect sense to me. In many earthquakes, even if you're awake, it often takes a while for someone to realize, "OK, yeah, this is an earthquake." If someone could potentially be saved from injury or death because they responded just a few seconds sooner--getting under a desk, getting away a heavy bookcase, etc.--then that seems totally worth it to me.
Posted by: Teslinhiker

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/11/11 06:33 PM



Article on the NY Times website which points out Japan's strict building codes saved a large number of lives. Also mentions that if a EQ of this size had hit another country that was not as well prepared, the death toll and damage would of been much more severe.

From seawalls that line stretches of Japan’s coastline, to skyscrapers that sway to absorb earthquakes, to building codes that are among the world’s most rigorous, no country may be better prepared to withstand earthquakes than Japan.

Had any other populous country suffered the 8.9 magnitude earthquake that shook Japan on Friday, tens of thousands of people might already be counted among the dead. So far, Japan’s death toll is in the hundreds, although it is certain to rise.
Posted by: bacpacjac

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/11/11 06:53 PM

Originally Posted By: Teslinhiker

... Japan's strict building codes saved a large number of lives


japan had a 7. something earthquake on wed and there was little to no damage. not sure where but a testiment to those builing codes.
Posted by: Pete

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/11/11 07:19 PM

This particular video shows the multiple tsunami waves rolling into the coast of Japan. This is exactly what Arney was talking about. You can see that the coastline is already partially flooded, so these were not the first waves. But more than likely they pushed the water further inland.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnew...ches-shore.html

It does show that there is some warning time available - though not much.

NOTE TO GOOGLE and YAHOO: Do you guys realize how mercenary and cold-blooded you come across, when you post auto adds and phone adds in front of video's showing people getting killed by earthquakes?

NOTE TO JAPANESE TV REPORTERS: it is possible to land your helicopters and save a few peoples' lives. You don't need to spend all day getting video footage from the air.


regards,
other Pete

Posted by: Susan

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/11/11 08:36 PM


"None of the locals who live here are taking the tsunami risk seriously... Our local media are doing their normal fear mongering... they cannot comprehend why nobody is listening to them. ...I expect no damage of any kind from the wave."

How odd! Earthquake prediction is practically non-existent, but tsunami prediction is exact? Since WHEN?

Quite a few people have been killed by tsunamis because they decided to stand on the shore to watch them come in (despite warnings), or they saw the first few low waves and figured there weren't going to be any big ones, so they went closer (despite warnings).

Some people are simply too stupid to live.

And those who choose to believe some self-anointed 'expert', who goes around all puffed up saying, "I expect no damage of any kind from the wave" aren't very bright, either.

Sue
Posted by: paramedicpete

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/11/11 08:48 PM

Quote:
Out here in Los Angeles things are calm. None of the locals who live here are taking the tsunami risk seriously. Just another day in California. My guess is that maybe we might see a 2-foot wave. It could be actually visible this morning, but only because the sea is very calm and flat on Friday morning.

Our local media are doing their normal fear mongering. "Hidden danger in the water!!!". This actually works against them, and they cannot comprehend why nobody is listening to them. The California surfers have blown off the media entirely. Those guys are out on their surfboards in the ocean. A few foreign tourists are a bit freaked out, but the locals here are just heading off to work. The beaches are closed as a precaution, but I expect no damage of any kind from the wave.



Perhaps this person should have taken things seriously:

Man Swept Away by Tsunami

And a fair amount of damage: "Damage estimates in Crescent City were in the millions, and more boats and docks were hit in Santa Cruz on California's central coast."


Pete
Posted by: bacpacjac

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/11/11 09:14 PM

the LA County lifegaurds were wise to keep the beaches open? i live in an area relatively free of natural disasters, and i never was very good at physics, so maybe i am more sensative to these things than people who live with them regularly, but i just can't fathom how anyone can call it fear monguring when the powers that be alert people to an incoming tsunami. it simply makes no sense to me to be so complacent about it.

there's been a huge earthquake and tsunami, and the entire ring of fire is shaking. it doesn't sound like an over-reaction to me. it seems prudent. i think i'd save the "duh!" reaction for hindsight, if the worst does happen and some dumba$$, who was sure the alerts were an overblown, gets caught in it.
Posted by: bacpacjac

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/11/11 09:16 PM

the LA County lifegaurds were wise to keep the beaches open? i live in an area relatively free of natural disasters, and i never was very good at physics, so maybe i am more sensative to these things than people who live with them regularly, but i just can't fathom how anyone can call it fear monguring when the powers that be alert people to an incoming tsunami. it simply makes no sense to me to be so complacent about it.

there's been a huge earthquake and tsunami, and the entire ring of fire is shaking. it doesn't sound like an over-reaction to me. it seems prudent. i think i'd save the "duh!" reaction for hindsight, if the worst does happen and some dumba$$, who was sure the alerts were an overblown, gets caught in it.
Posted by: bacpacjac

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/11/11 09:23 PM

Sue, sometimes i have to shake my head and double-check which site i'm on. we are still about being prepared and AVOIDING disaster, right? it blows my mind that someone on this site, of all places, would voice dissent over warnings about an ACTUAL DISASTER IN PROGRESS. Knowledge is power, but i guess getting swept up in a tsunami is more fun!
Posted by: MarkO

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/11/11 09:29 PM

Reports in of extensive damage to the Port of Brookings on the OR Coast. One person apparently found dead in a boat in the harbor though it's undetermined if its related to the tsunami.

http://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northw..._brookings.html
Posted by: Art_in_FL

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/11/11 09:35 PM

I lived in Japan for a few years and I'd have a hard time coming up with a nation and people that are better prepared and more invested in disaster mitigation. Part of this has to do with their society and geography. A whole lot of people living in rather small nation that is subject to earthquakes, typhoons, wildfires, tsunamis, landslides, and volcanoes. They have learned a lot about how to get along, work together, and survive in hard times.

I wish them well, luck and fortuitous timing often makes a huge difference, but feel confidence that when the story is told of this day they will have acquitted themselves well.
Posted by: comms

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/11/11 09:56 PM

I was living on Guam during a 8.1 or 8.3 (can't recall) quake. What really saved lives there, and I am sure in Japan as well is that they code new buildings (last 2-3 decades) to withstand CAT5 winds from Typhoons and such. My building for example had a foundation described to me as being springs and rollers, that allowed the 13 stories to flex with the wind (and therefore bounce w/ the quake).
Posted by: Art_in_FL

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/11/11 10:31 PM

Tsunami/Quake Videos:
http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2011/03/tsunamiquake_videos_1.php
Posted by: Pete

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/11/11 10:42 PM

I don't have a problem with how the L.A. County department and the local police called this incident - specifically as it applies to where we are in southern California. Their expectations were right on the money. We typically see a lot of dissipation in the strength of these tsunami waves by the time they travel long distances and reach southern California. It may be due to the specific orientation of our coastline, and possibly the ocean topography where we live. The real factor for us is watching how big the tsunami is when it reaches Hawaii and Oregon. That's a helpful clue.

ParamedicPete: I'm not sure why Crescent City, CA was affected as much as it was. That's a good question. It may have something to do with the coastline up there, and how waves gets funneled into that location (or maybe how the ocean bottom rises there). By the way - on a totally separate subject I tried to send you a PM today. Apparently your PM inbox is filled up.

I suspect that the same thing is true in Japan at Sendai - there is a potential build-up of tsunami energy in some places as the energy gets channeled by the coastline and ocean bottom. If anyone sees any more analysis by experts ... I'd like to see that.

UPDATE: I just talked to a guy here in So. Cal who tells me that there is a history of tsunami effects in Crescent City. Something about the ocean structure there amplifies the effects of tsunamis coming from Asia. I guess the city authorities have learned about this from previous experience. That is why they asked all the boat owners to sail out of the port before the tsunami arrived today.

Meanwhile, here is a global map of the size of the tsunami as it was predicted to spread out from Japan. Maybe this data is what led various communities to adjust their response to the wave. However, this model doesn't explain why Crescent City got such a big response.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12715415

other Pete
Posted by: Arney

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/11/11 11:15 PM

Originally Posted By: Teslinhiker
Article on the NY Times website which points out Japan's strict building codes saved a large number of lives.

I'm sure that Japan's building codes saved many lives yesterday. But Japan is also an example of how Mother Nature can thwart even the best laid plans. In the Kobe earthquake, there were some spectcular structural failures because the earth moved in ways that seismologists did not predict or think were possible, so the engineers didn't design structures to withstand those particular forces.
Posted by: Arney

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/11/11 11:51 PM

Originally Posted By: comms
...I am sure in Japan as well is that they code new buildings (last 2-3 decades) to withstand CAT5 winds from Typhoons and such.

This isn't really contradicting what you're saying, but I remember seeing something on TV about the construction of...maybe it was Taipei 101, the tallest building in Taiwan. They mentioned that designing for earthquakes and typhoons can actually be opposing goals. Typhoon winds tend to be a more constant load, therefore you want the building to be stiff enough to prevent being blown over. But earthquakes are oscillating loads, so you want a structure nimble enough (or putting the whole thing on shocks or rollers or using some oscillation dampening system may accomplish a similiar thing) to prevent the load from cracking the building in half as it changes directions quickly.
Posted by: Pete

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/12/11 12:06 AM

This is interesting ...

http://www.suntimes.com/4258154-417/5-nuclear-reactors-under-state-of-emergency.html

As a result of the 8.9 earthquake, the Japanese have now got problems at 5 operating nuclear reactors (located at 2 different power plants). The problem may stem from the fact that the reactors lost BOTH their coolant flow and equipment power supplies at the same time - due to the combined quake and the tsunami. That's a worst-case series of events.

It is TOO EARLY to speculate that this leads to a critical emergency. It probably depends on how much extra safety was put into the engineering containment design for the reactors. Probably a lot - but you don't know how much damage was done by the earthquake.

They have evacuated the people living near the power plants. Radiation levels are climbing outside the power plants.

other Pete
Posted by: Richlacal

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/12/11 12:43 AM

Crescent City is named that because,The Bay is Crescent Shaped.There are Huge troughs on the Ocean Floor,adjacent to Crescent City,which in turn Magnify any swells coming inbound to The Shoreline,Couple that with the fact that Crescent city is Not too far from Sea-Level itself in Elevation,& You have a Major worry of Tsunami of Any size!It's like a Big Funnel,& Unfortunately,Crescent City is at The Small End of it!
Posted by: Dagny

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/12/11 01:20 AM

Some are saying the quake was a 9.1

Twice as powerful as an 8.9 USGS is still saying it was 8.9

Either are unfathomable.

Chile 1960 was 9.5!


http://www.staradvertiser.com/news/break...uake_to_91.html






Posted by: LED

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/12/11 02:26 AM

According to Caltech/USGS the east coast of Japan shifted 8ft. (2.4m). shocked They've also increased the evac zone around the Fukushima plants to 6.2mi (10km).
Posted by: tmurase

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/12/11 04:22 AM

A few notes:

According to wikipedia, since 2007, Japan has an earthquake alert system in place, broadcasting warnings through TV and radio, etc, nationwide which may have given many people a minute or two to get ready.

Given the proximity of the epicenter to the coast (130 km to the closest point on land according to wikipedia), I really doubt many of the folks on the coast had much time even with the tsunami sirens going off (a system that has been in place since the 1950s). There are certainly video clips with the sirens going off, but I'm afraid in this case, the quake was just too close to the coast for too many people.

Re: our apparent indifference to the tsunami advisory. You have to understand, we have some of the worst local news broadcasts in the world. That is no exaggeration. These are "news" people who think every car chase is worth airtime. Where Lindsay Lohan is more important than local issues (City of Bell, anyone?). Where a barely measurable amount of rain warrants a "storm of the century" headline. So the typical overhyped, ham-fisted approach just means many never listen to the plastic surgery cases who cry wolf.

Plus this is Hollywood. Tsunamis are only waves that tower over skyscrapers, right?

Tsunami prediction is fairly good, and the Pacific is well modeled as to how an earthquake would propagate and who would suffer more. Hence the tsunami warnings for Hawaii and points north of us whereas we were issued the less severe advisory. We do have some local geography (e.g. the Channel Islands) that work in our favor in these kinds of events. I imagine should a similar earthquake occur in the Pacific Northwest, we'd get hit much harder.
Posted by: aloha

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/12/11 04:47 AM

Prayers to Japan

More pics:

http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2011/03/massive_earthquake_hits_japan.html
Posted by: Pete

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/12/11 05:11 AM

OK - remember my previous post about the nuclear reactors having problems? Well ... apparently the situation is much worse than the Japanese Gov't has been telling the media.

http://www.dailynews.com/news/ci_17596304?source=rss

I guess in the great struggle between human technology and the mighty forces of nature - nature wins again.

Normally any radioactive material from a reactor meltdown should be held within the containment structure surrounding the reactor. However, in this case the containment structure may itself be damaged by the earthquake. So who knows??

other Pete
Posted by: LED

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/12/11 08:20 AM

Explosion reported at Fukushima power plant. From CNN. If there were a meltdown, wouldn't the jetstream carry the fallout this way pretty quickly?
Posted by: Dagny

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/12/11 12:28 PM

Hopefully, the Japan experience and the isolated tsunami damage in California and Oregon will raise lasting awareness among a significant number of residents of the U.S. west coast. Some of those folks may find their way to ETS.

Meanwhile, the tsunami alerts in Oregon and California provided some "teachable moments" for some public officials -- such as knowing warning systems will work when needed.

Oregon and Washington coasts will have only 30 minutes or so before a tsunami hits, when the subduction zone quake scenario in that region plays out as anticipated someday. I've spent many vacations at Cannon Beach, Oregon. We spend hours walking on that gorgeous miles-long beach, blissfully unaware of news reports. Have to be mentally conditioned run to higher ground after feeling a tremor.

Tillamook County, Oregon cheaped out on warning sirens ($1 surplus) and they didn't activate as they were supposed to:

http://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northw...outh_coast.html

"Some of the sirens in Tillamook County did not activate and had to be sounded by hand. The technology is very old, said Sheriff Todd Anderson, who noted the sirens were purchased for $1 from the Hanford Nuclear Reservation, and replacement parts cannot be found."


Portland is only 75 miles from the coast, a fact which has now spawned some increasing realization among some of my friends and relatives there that has resulted in some protracted e-mail exchanges with me since last night. I think at least a couple of them will take meaningful steps to increase their own preparedness at home and in their vehicles.

Posted by: Dagny

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/12/11 12:49 PM

More testament to the unfathomable force of the main quake:

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/asiapcf/03/12/japan.earthquake.tsunami.earth/index.html?hpt=T1

(CNN) -- The powerful earthquake that unleashed a devastating tsunami Friday appears to have moved the main island of Japan by 8 feet (2.4 meters) and shifted the Earth on its axis [4 inches].


Posted by: Arney

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/12/11 02:36 PM

Originally Posted By: LED
If there were a meltdown, wouldn't the jetstream carry the fallout this way pretty quickly?

A meltdown is still a big "if" since the actual containment vessel apparently is still intact, but any radioactive particles would be very dispersed after travelling thousands of miles to North America. Imagine pouring a bucket of poison into the Mississippi and trying to measure the level of that poison a thousand miles downstream.

Twenty years after Chernobyl, the best efforts of scientists and medical researchers found no significant increase in cancers in countries downwind of the disaster, like neighboring Belarus, which are much closer than we are to Japan. That's not to say that there were no cancers that weren't caused by Chernobyl, but they couldn't detect any deviation from the normal rate of cancer among people so nothing to definitively attribute to Chernobyl on a population level.

Well, there was one exception--a particular form of childhood cancer, but not a big increase. A highly survivable form of cancer, if I recall correctly.
Posted by: Arney

Re: Earthquake in Japan - 03/12/11 02:50 PM

Originally Posted By: MartinFocazio
I have a live feed from NHK.

The English version of NHK's "World TV" feed can be viewed from this website from the upper right corner. They normally only have limited English programming, so don't expect hours and hours of different news material, like watching CNN.

They were showing this one five-story hospital from the air earlier. They said the tsunami reached the fourth floor! That's a sobering way of thinking about the neight of the tsunami, versus just saying it was X feet high. The two-story city hall building next to the hospital is just wiped from the face of the earth.
Posted by: Pete

Re: Earthquake in Japan - 03/12/11 03:04 PM

So what we've got is a Chernobyl-type incident at one of these nuclear power plants. Hopefully this type of radiation release is confined to just one plant, but since several nuclear reactors are involved ... we just don't know.

At this point the Japanese Government can no longer keep playing their cards close to their vest. They are going to need to provide accurate info to the world on what is going on. They were very tight-lipped before the reactor explosion, and they kept giving assurances that it could not happen. But obviously the earthquake damage to these power plants has been extensive.

Looking at TV, it appears that a lot of the exploded containment structure went into a cloud of debris that landed within a few hundred yards of the plant. But very likely they have now got radioactive material in the ocean as well as on land. And they are probably venting some residual gases into the air as well.

They need to get some airplanes into the sky, and some boats onto the ocean, to check radioactivity levels. My guess is that the international community will put tremendous pressure on Japan to get this information collected and released as soon as possible.

other Pete
Posted by: Arney

Re: Earthquake in Japan - 03/12/11 04:09 PM

Originally Posted By: Pete
So what we've got is a Chernobyl-type incident at one of these nuclear power plants.

I think we're still a long ways from comparing this situation to Chernobyl. The release of radioactivity so far may make it more comparable to Three Mile Island as far as its actual impact on the surrounding area. And the containment vessel that actually houses the core still seems to be intact. At Chernobyl, you had the graphite core completely exposed to the outside, burning out of control and so hot that no amount of water could put it out, spewing massive quantities of radioactive fallout into the atmosphere.

At Fukushima, the control rods are all in place from what I understand, so the core will not go into uncontrolled fission. It's still generating heat, though, and that needs to be cooled or eventually bad things happen, but that's a far cry from the runaway disaster that was Chernobyl.
Posted by: Dagny

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/12/11 06:34 PM

The USGS listing of quakes -- foreshock, main shock, aftershocks -- is astonishing. I'm at a loss for a sufficient superlative.

7.2 foreshock on Wednesday, followed by three 6.0 + quakes and dozens of 4+ and 5+ on during Wednesday-Thursday.

Friday's 8.9 main shock, a subsequent 7.1 and (so far) twenty-five over 6.0


http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Maps/10/140_40_eqs.php


Every one of these 6+ quakes must be taking a toll on surviving infrastructure.





Posted by: Susan

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/12/11 06:55 PM


"Oregon and Washington coasts will have only 30 minutes or so before a tsunami hits, when the subduction zone quake scenario in that region plays out as anticipated someday."

I was reading an estimation that, depending on placement, depth and probably other conditions, it could be 10 minutes or less before a tsunami hit the OR/WA coast after a quake.

Having spent many hours on Oregon beaches myself, I wonder if a person would actually feel a quake in the sand? I have warned my sister (new to the PNW) that if she did feel a quake, or saw a coastal draw-down, not to wait for anything, just to RUN. That's not the time to collect your belongings!

Sue
Posted by: Arney

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/12/11 07:38 PM

Originally Posted By: Susan
Having spent many hours on Oregon beaches myself, I wonder if a person would actually feel a quake in the sand?

As a rule of thumb, only very strong earthquakes (like 8.0+) can produce these very large, destructive tsunamis, and an 8.0+ quake lasts a long time, so I highly doubt that you could ever miss feeling the Cascadia subduction zone letting loose in a big way.

On one of these video clips, they were interviewing someone from the Australian tsunami warning agency. He broke down the various things that need to happen between the time of a quake and when Joe Average on the ground actually receives a warning to evacuate and he says it's very difficult to do so under 30 minutes.

Although there can be automatic algorithms hooked up to sensors that will send out a warning, it does take a human time to analyze the specifics of a quake, it's location, intensity, depth, the ocean topography, whether there was ocean floor displacement, etc. to make a more definitive prediction. Which is not a good thing for the PNW. But yeah, any time you feel a really strong earthquake in the PNW--the kind where you're muttering, "Holy ****...holy ****..." and everything is getting knocked down, head to higher ground as soon as it's safe if you're near the coast and near sea level. In the Sendai quake, the tsunami pushed 6 miles inland!

However, the other possibility is that the quake happens far enough away that the intensity is a lot lower. I think that a major quake in the Aleutians, near Alaska, could also generate a large tsunami that sweeps down to the PNW without major shaking being felt in the lower 48 and get there pretty quickly.
Posted by: Dagny

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/12/11 08:35 PM

Originally Posted By: Susan

... it could be 10 minutes or less before a tsunami hit the OR/WA coast after a quake.

Having spent many hours on Oregon beaches myself, I wonder if a person would actually feel a quake in the sand? I have warned my sister (new to the PNW) that if she did feel a quake, or saw a coastal draw-down, not to wait for anything, just to RUN. That's not the time to collect your belongings!

Sue


Ten minutes = toast

For most peops, if caught on a beach with a Japan-scale tsunami surge in route.

Next time at Cannon Beach I should clock how long it would take to run from the water-line to the road. There's usually considerable sand in between. And that wouldn't be high enough for comfort. Doubtful I'd get high enough on land on foot in 10 minutes to survive what hit Japan.

Next time I visit a west coast beach I'll be carrying a rucksack everywhere and with a new mindset.

I wonder what it would cost to build in the northwest the same earthquake early warning system that Japan has.
Posted by: Pete

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/12/11 09:01 PM

In my neighborhood we are lucky that there are some good hills right beside some of the beaches. If you feel a strong earthquake and you get moving straight away - you should make higher ground in time. But this is by no means true for all the beaches in So. California.

In addition to the tsunami problem, there is also a "big wave" problem for some beaches. Some of our Californua coastline has deep submarine canyons that come very close to the shore. The bottoms of those canyons are covered in deep mud. That mud can cascade downwards into the canyon during a quake - triggering a strong water response at the surface. That could generate some very big local waves - enough to swamp the beach. Those waves could arrive almost immediately after the quake. But this problem only occurs at selected beaches ... it's not a general situation.

Chernobyl: Your objections above are right. i was wrong to use that analogy. Chernobyl had a different kind of reactor. A Russian physicist pointed that out on TV today. Still - I am concerned by the latest photo's from the Japanese power plant. Take a look at the photo shown on the other thread talking about this subject. There's a pretty big fire burning there - it seems to be too big to match the explanation given by the Government.

Arney: Unfortunately, our worst fears are confirmed. I saw an eye witness report from Sendai this morning, from a Japanese guy who drives a big rig. His truck was washed over by the tidal wave, but the rig was heavy and it didn't get dislodged. He said that other families driving in cars on the same road were washed away by the big wave. Very sad.

other Pete
Posted by: bacpacjac

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/12/11 09:23 PM

Originally Posted By: Dagny

Next time I visit a west coast beach I'll be carrying a rucksack everywhere and with a new mindset.


Dagny, it sounds like that would make you smarter, i mean, more prepared, than some of the locals. wink
Posted by: bacpacjac

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/13/11 03:03 PM

earthquake, tsunami, aftershocks, nuclear meltdowns, and now this...

http://mobile.thestar.com/mobile/NEWS/article/953212

Japan’s weather agency says a volcano in southern Japan has resumed eruptions of ash and rocks as the country struggles with the aftermath of a catastrophic earthquake and tsunami in the north.
Posted by: Teslinhiker

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/13/11 03:11 PM

Just seen this on msnbc.com....the pic speaks for itself.

Posted by: MarkO

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/13/11 03:43 PM

Originally Posted By: Pete
In my neighborhood we are lucky that there are some good hills right beside .......


In Portland, there are more fault lines running through the hills. Dangit!
Posted by: Arney

What about the aftershocks - 03/13/11 06:32 PM

Edit: I just moved this from the nuke thread.

Statistically, there should be more aftershocks that are very strong. Normally, they would be considered major earthquakes in themselves, but they would be somewhat pale in comparison to the original quake. One expert on TV was saying that extrapolating from the averages, you could expect one magnitude 8 and ten 7's in the coming weeks. WHAT??? I really hope the averages don't apply in this case.

I wonder how much infrastructure has been weakened by the original quake and is now more vulnerable to these major aftershocks? It's possible that a major aftershock or two could cause more damage to Tokyo than the original quake. I shudder to think what it would do to the nuke plants that are already struggling due to damage.

It also means that people who thought they dodged the bullet with the 8.9 and weren't prepared, should really make preps right now. I'm telling the people I know in Tokyo to be prepared for more, just in case.
Posted by: Arney

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/13/11 06:36 PM

Boy, this 60-year old gentleman is a survivor. Rescued 2 days after the quake, 10 miles at sea, floating on what's left of his house's roof after the tsunami crashed into it and sucked it out to sea. Unfortunately, his wife was swept away.
Posted by: Pete

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/13/11 09:06 PM

Lucky, lucky, lucky. Goes to show though, i guess you can't give up on checking all that floating debris.

other Pete
Posted by: Dagny

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/13/11 10:05 PM



I haven't heard a word about any looting.

Has anyone else?

That seems a departure from so many disasters elsewhere in the world.
Posted by: Art_in_FL

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/13/11 10:50 PM

Originally Posted By: Arney

I wonder how much infrastructure has been weakened by the original quake and is now more vulnerable to these major aftershocks? It's possible that a major aftershock or two could cause more damage to Tokyo than the original quake. I shudder to think what it would do to the nuke plants that are already struggling due to damage


The good news is that the earthquake, in and of itself, didn't do much harm to the nuke plants. It was the tsunami that took out the diesel backup generators and caused the big problems. It also has to be noted that the difference between a seven and an eight is a factor of ten. This quake was approximately one hundred times as powerful as the big one in Haiti.
Posted by: Dagny

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/14/11 12:47 AM

The New York Times did an article last year on Cannon Beach, Oregon's looking into building a new City Hall that would double as a tsunami escape for 1000 people. I hadn't realized they'd been hit by the 1964 tsunami generated by the Alaska 9.2 Prince William Sound quake.

As Susan noted -- they may be looking at as little as 10 minutes between a quake and tsunami coming ashore.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/15/us/15tsunami.html

“In the best case, we’ll have a few hours’ warning from an earthquake that happened somewhere far away in the Pacific Basin,” said Mr. Rooper, who has worked in the fire department for 40 years. “In the worst case, we’ll have 10 to 20 minutes after the ground stops shaking here to try to get to high ground.”

There are so few roads connecting the coast to the rest of the state that getting help in could be extremely difficult. And a big subduction quake likely will have caused significant damage inland. Portland is about 70 miles away.


http://oregonstate.edu/terra/2010/07/uncharted-waters/

...there’s a 37 percent chance of a partial rupture of the zone within the next 50 years, an event that could be similar in magnitude to the earthquake just experienced in Chile.

“Perhaps more striking than the probability numbers is that we have already gone longer without an earthquake than 75 percent of the known times between earthquakes in the last 10,000 years,”




Posted by: comms

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/14/11 02:59 AM

Originally Posted By: Art_in_FL
Originally Posted By: Arney

I wonder how much infrastructure has been weakened by the original quake and is now more vulnerable to these major aftershocks? It's possible that a major aftershock or two could cause more damage to Tokyo than the original quake. I shudder to think what it would do to the nuke plants that are already struggling due to damage


The good news is that the earthquake, in and of itself, didn't do much harm to the nuke plants. It was the tsunami that took out the diesel backup generators and caused the big problems. It also has to be noted that the difference between a seven and an eight is a factor of ten. This quake was approximately one hundred times as powerful as the big one in Haiti.


I agree. Large buildings/condos there and in the south pacific in general are build to withstand tremendous winds from typhoons. They are designed to sway quite a bit. From what I see from reports it was the tsunami that has really buggered things up.
Posted by: MarkO

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/14/11 03:20 AM

Originally Posted By: Dagny
...... There are so few roads connecting the coast to the rest of the state that getting help in could be extremely difficult. And a big subduction quake likely will have caused significant damage inland. Portland is about 70 miles away.


Any info on inland damage in Japan from the quake ?
Posted by: Lono

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/14/11 12:30 PM

The pain, damage and anguish in Japan seems so immense, I'll avoid commenting on it, but a few brief observations might contribute here:

- my thoughts and prayers go out to the Japanese people. Watching the coverage I am convinced they are among the most resilient people on earth when it comes to preparing for and dealing with tragedies such as this one. They will recover. And it goes without saying, they will learn from it, and lead the worldwide community in preparing for the next devastating earthquake. I am amazed, and relieved to see all the evidence of successful preparation:

- the video of the tsunami are horrific, but those houses bobbing in the waves, being swept across the landscape - they are intact, not in pieces as they tend to be in flooding videos in the US. A number of multistory structures survived the EQ, and the sweep of the massive tsunami. The structures survived an 8.9, giving occupants a chance to get out and seek higher ground. It sounds strange, but as nightmarish as the tsunami was, I saw hope in some of those intact structures, people staying alive. How does the saying go, chance favors the lucky and the prepared? Luck gets progressively worse the stronger the EQ - only the prepared have a chance to survive. Japanese engineers, society and legal system that adopted progressive building codes made that happen. In the US, do we have the same fortitude to do that? Why not?

- In Tokyo they were very prepared. At the subsidiary of my US employer, they had disaster kits for visitors to take with them, and they were offered shelter if they didn't want to try to make it home. Disaster kits for building visitors - why didn't I think of that? That's on my to do list for the next disaster prep committee meeting.

- video of the Self-Defense force, already deployed, rendering assistance within hours of the EQ. Video ops can be staged, but here were units of Japanese forces already responding to the EQ so shortly after. Same with tg triage stations nearer the quake. That takes some organization. It's amazing to watch, and inspiring - we should help however we can, with labor, with money, with support or prayers. With preparations in our own communities, for some future someday.

Posted by: Pete

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/14/11 02:35 PM

This puts a human face on this disaster ...

http://l1.yimg.com/a/i/ww/news/2011/03/14/031411japan1.jpg

other Pete
Posted by: Arney

One hospital's story - 03/14/11 02:39 PM

In the same way I was heartbroken to hear those stories come out of Katrina about seniors or the sick who couldn't/weren't evacuated from hospitals and nursing homes and had to struggle to survive, here's a story about a local community hospital near Sendai and their efforts to cope with the aftermath.
Posted by: Arney

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/14/11 03:05 PM

Originally Posted By: IzzyJG99
He said that Japanese culture more or less wouldn't allow for such a thing. I think his words were "They have an intense culture of shame for those who do wrong. It wouldn't enter their mind to steal."

I would basically agree with this, and certainly this is the case in the more rural areas and towns that we have mostly seen on the videos.

I can't imagine normal Japanese swarming a supermarket and just carting away stuff right in front of TV cameras and scurrying away. Of course, every culture has its criminal element--even Japan--and they may cause some mischief. However, calamity can often bring out the best in even criminals.

If things ever got so desperate that the contents of some business were needed (and who knows, it might come to that), instead of going in and stealing it themselves, the people would most likely ask the owner or ask the authorities to ask the owner and the owner would likely just donate it all. If the owner couldn't be found, the supplies would be commandeered in some rational, orderly fashion. Probably not dissimilar to what you might see in many tightknit rural communities even in the US still.

Not that anyone has any guns in Japan, but you'll never see any need for merchants on rooftops waving shotguns to scare off looters or armed "neighborhood watches" and checkpoints like in the Cairo uprising.

That said, there can be a dark side to Japanese, too. I won't go into details since it's apparently not relevant in this situation AFAIK. I just bring it up so people realize that I'm not saying the Japanese are all just angels in human form.

Edit:
Here's a Washington Post article I just read called, "Amid catastrophe, Japan fights mayhem with order."

This description is very illustrative (remember this is IN the disaster area):
Quote:
At a convenience store in one battered coastal prefecture, a store manager turned to a private electrical generator. When the generator stopped working and the cash register could no longer open, customers who had been waiting in line quietly returned their items to the shelves.
Posted by: Arney

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/15/11 03:30 PM

I just read a mention in one story that the fear and uncertainty over the nuclear situation could be hampering relief efforts because people in Japan away from the disaster zones are starting to stock up on food just as supplies need to be diverted to the disaster areas. Another knock on effect of this trifecta of disasters in Japan.

I have read reports that many store shelves in Tokyo are apparently bare, although that could be more because normal food deliveries were disrupted by the earthquake rather than panic buying. In any just-in-time supply chain, any disruption can lead to bare shelves quickly. My friend in Tokyo mentioned bare shelves in a convenience store, but the larger supermarket near her seemed OK, so it's hard to say how accurate the reporting is about this. She didn't notice any signs of panic buying at the supermarket.
Posted by: Arney

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/16/11 02:29 PM

Just got a quick email from my friend who left Japan. She says Narita airport (the main international airport for Tokyo) was swamped but orderly and she got out without much trouble.

In one news report from one of the shelters in the disaster zone, the reporter made a brief mention that they are still meticulously sorting all the garbage at the shelter. In Japan, the lack of landfill space means that they must try to recycle as much as they can.

Municipalities differ in their recycling programs, and in some places, there is a boggling number of different kinds of categories you must separate your garbage into. The thought of these cold, hungry, scared, bewildered folks having the fortitude to carry on something like separating their garbage brings a little tear to my eye.
Posted by: Arney

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/17/11 01:38 PM

I keep seeing these stories about survivors and shelters that are out of basically all supplies and fuel, but I have yet to see any stories about anyone getting resupplied. I have also seen a story or two about supplies piling up outside the diaster zone just waiting for directions from the government on where to go. I'm wondering what's going on with the relief effort, is this a pattern, or are we just hearing from the places that haven't yet been supplied? Don't know.
Posted by: hikermor

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/17/11 01:51 PM

I certainly don't know the answeres to your questions, but you have to consider media bias. Stories about lack of supplies please editors more than a piece about resupply. In an event of this magnitude, there are bound to be glitches.

This is certainly an excellent demonstration of the advisability of stocking up for a longer period than 72 hours (like one month - that would be 720 hours).
Posted by: chaosmagnet

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/17/11 02:25 PM

Originally Posted By: hikermor
This is certainly an excellent demonstration of the advisability of stocking up for a longer period than 72 hours (like one month - that would be 720 hours).


I have about a month of everything on hand except water, where I'm at about two weeks' supply. I haven't figured out how to store enough of that yet.
Posted by: Arney

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/19/11 01:57 PM

Unfortunately, a false alarm over a reported rescue. Earlier in the day, the news was reporting the miraculous rescue of a young man eight days after the quake and tsunami.

Turns out that he hadn't been trapped all this time, but was brought in by rescuers, possibly suffering from hypothermia. He had been staying at an evacuation shelter and had gone back to the site of his destroyed home to see if he could salvage anything from the wreckage.
Posted by: hikermor

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/19/11 03:46 PM

Originally Posted By: chaosmagnet


I have about a month of everything on hand except water, where I'm at about two weeks' supply. I haven't figured out how to store enough of that yet.


I don't know what you do, but my practice is to utilize every two liter or larger plastic container that comes my way. The are cleaned, filled with water, and dispersed around the home. At this point, I don't have as much water as I would like to have, either.

I try and refresh the containers every year or so, but I must admit I am not very good at that.
Posted by: Arney

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/19/11 06:02 PM

This is a 52-photo slideshow about the aftermath of the earthquake and tsunami. Many memorable and haunting images which really touch me. An outstanding piece of photojournalism.
Posted by: Arney

Ship caught in tsunami video - 03/19/11 08:11 PM

For the maritime/nautical type folks, I thought that this video was very dramatic and the only video that I have seen that shows how boats/ships fared besides getting smashed up.

Starting at 0:50 and until 3:50, you can watch this good sized ship (I don't have a good eye--75-100 ft long?) struggle as it gets caught in the tsunami, close to shore.

In the beginning, the ship is listing badly and looks to be broadside to the tsunami. You can see crew members standing on the outside of the rails because the ship is listing so much. After about half a minute, you see black smoke start pouring out of the stack and the ship starts to turn and right itself.

Even then, they aren't out of danger. The current seems to change directions very quickly. At one point, the ship is spun 180 degrees in a couple of seconds, almost capsizing yet again. Must've been terrifying for the captain and crew.

The only other video I've seen is reportedly from a Japan Coast Guard vessel further off the coast when the tsunami passes. Not as dramatic since the tsunami is just a really big swell at that point, but you do experience tension as you see the tsunami in the distance and the bow slowly comes around to meet it head on. The voice on the video estimates the height as 10m.
Posted by: Mark_R

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/19/11 09:02 PM

Originally Posted By: hikermor

I don't know what you do, but my practice is to utilize every two liter or larger plastic container that comes my way. The are cleaned, filled with water, and dispersed around the home. At this point, I don't have as much water as I would like to have, either.

I try and refresh the containers every year or so, but I must admit I am not very good at that.


There's two systems that I know of that are good for rotating water. The system that I use is to replace my emergency water in 1 gal PET containers every 6 months. There's only about $1/each so it's not a major expense. I keep them with the emergency supplies so they don't get used for anything else. The old ones get used for drinking water and will last a couple of weeks. The other system one of my coworkers uses. He buys 24 ct cases of bottled water (about 3 gallons/case) and continually rotates then as he uses them. It's more expensive, but his supplies are probably fresher then mine.
Posted by: raptor

Re: Ship caught in tsunami video - 03/19/11 09:19 PM

Originally Posted By: Arney
The only other video I've seen is reportedly from a Japan Coast Guard vessel further off the coast when the tsunami passes. Not as dramatic since the tsunami is just a really big swell at that point, but you do experience tension as you see the tsunami in the distance and the bow slowly comes around to meet it head on. The voice on the video estimates the height as 10m.


This is the video I guess. Filmed 3 miles off the shore: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnew...oast-Guard.html

That's quite formidable sight. They were lucky to be that far off the shore.
Posted by: Lono

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/20/11 02:57 PM

Originally Posted By: Arney
I keep seeing these stories about survivors and shelters that are out of basically all supplies and fuel, but I have yet to see any stories about anyone getting resupplied. I have also seen a story or two about supplies piling up outside the diaster zone just waiting for directions from the government on where to go. I'm wondering what's going on with the relief effort, is this a pattern, or are we just hearing from the places that haven't yet been supplied? Don't know.


The World Health Organization (WHO) puts out daily situation reports from major disasters and incidents, the ones from Japan have been informative and have some good data in them - http://www.wpro.who.int/sites/eha/disasters/2011/jpn_earthquake/list.htm. If you read the initial reports you can see the early assessments (including areas where they had no data or knowledge of the situation on the ground), and if you read them every day you get a sense of where there's progress, and where progress may be stymied. Everyone is working very hard under unreal circumstances.
Posted by: Arney

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/20/11 03:15 PM

I ran across this article about evacuees who are lacking food. These people in the article are hanging on with just starvation rations, it seems (i.e. one small bowl of rice a day).

Despite the opinion expressed by many of us (myself included) that Japanese would not resort to looting or foraging, sounds like the situation how become desperate enough to force people to start foraging. Sounds like the more remote towns and villages have not even been reached at all yet.

"There’s no food, tell people there is no food"
This was originally published on 18 March and updated on 19 March.

Posted by: chaosmagnet

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/20/11 03:45 PM

Originally Posted By: hikermor
I don't know what you do, but my practice is to utilize every two liter or larger plastic container that comes my way. The are cleaned, filled with water, and dispersed around the home. At this point, I don't have as much water as I would like to have, either.

I try and refresh the containers every year or so, but I must admit I am not very good at that.


I keep at least ten cases of Costco bottled water on hand; most of the time there are between 12-14 cases. We go through at least two each month, and I rotate them. Each case is a bit over 4.6 gallons.

Under my workbench there are three five-gallon water bladders, which I dump out and refill twice a year. While I'm prepared to purify this water if need be, it always comes out smelling and tasting like good water when I dump it out.

My water heater holds 50 gallons, but that only works if the water is shut off before contaminants are introduced into the supply.

At a round 120 gallons, the five of us have 24 days of water at 1 gallon/person/day. If we can't trust the water heater, we're at 14 days. I'm always leery of trusting the 1/gallon/person/day figure though, because if it's hot or we're exerting ourselves we could easily drink more than that before any water was used for cooking or washing.

I have carefully prepared a small container of pool chlorine with instructions on how to create a chlorine solution and purify water with it. While writing this post I went into my emergency supplies to estimate how much water I could purify with it, and to my dismay I can't lay hands on it.

While I would have discovered its lack during my Spring emergency gear checkup in a week or so, I'm not happy to learn that I've misplaced it.
Posted by: hikermor

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/20/11 04:20 PM

Originally Posted By: chaosmagnet

Under my workbench there are three five-gallon water bladders, which I dump out and refill twice a year. While I'm prepared to purify this water if need be, it always comes out smelling and tasting like good water when I dump it out.


Some year ago I did archaeology at Canyon de Chelly and we regularly visited an extremely isolated site (Navajo Fortress) that required some fairly serious climbing to access. We needed to carry all our water which typically involved an overnight stay.

On one occasion we stashed an extra gallon of water, returning a year later. Naturally we brought a full ration of water on our return, not knowing the condition of the stash we had left behind. It was ordinary tap water, not treated in any way. As it turned out, it was perfectly fine. The only precaution we took was to store it away from direct sunlight, but it was exposed to both high (90-100F) and subfreezing (circa 0F) temps during the intervening year.

I don't bother with commercially bottled water, except in a few rare situations. There are a fair number of studies that show tap water to be just as good, or even better.
Posted by: chaosmagnet

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/20/11 05:46 PM

Originally Posted By: hikermor
I don't bother with commercially bottled water, except in a few rare situations. There are a fair number of studies that show tap water to be just as good, or even better.


The tap water in my town is excellent.

I started with a little bottled water in order to keep some easily consumed, stored and rotated water in each vehicle. It's also handy, I've discovered, to have several containers instead of just one, if you want to give some away.

Next, my wife and kids actually started drinking the stuff. I realized that before I started storing water in our cars they were largely becoming dehydrated while we were traveling. So I kept a stock to keep replenishing the cars.

After that, I realized that my water storage at home was inadequate. So I bought more; my ten case minimum stock cost me less than $50 to put together and costs me nothing to maintain other than some garage space and the chore of putting the new cases at the bottom of the stacks.

I'd rather get some food-quality 50-gallon drums and have a spot to put them in, but I'll need to move to a bigger house for that to happen.
Posted by: Arney

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/21/11 07:39 PM

Official death toll approaching 9,000. Current projections are 18,000 total dead.

Gasoline is still scarce, which is hampering the delivery of supplies into the affected areas.

My friend is still mulling her return to Tokyo. There is still so much confusion about the current status of the nuclear situation. The attitude seems to be "no news is good news" so maybe the less they say about the reactors, the better people will feel.

Chances are good that there will be more major aftershocks to come. I just hope that one big enough to tip Fukushima Daiichi back into instability does not come before they can bring things fully under control.
Posted by: Arney

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/22/11 03:15 AM

The latest wrinkle in the nuclear saga is this CNN report that the Pentagon is "considering" mandatory evacuations of not only military families, but also service members, from the Tokyo area. It's not clear if these are just contingency plans, or whether they are, as CNN is implying, closer to reality than just contingency planning.
Quote:
The U.S. military is considering the mandatory evacuation of thousands of American troops and their families in Japan out of concern over rising radiation levels, a senior defense official tells CNN.

The State Department has also sent dependents out of Japan even from as far as the Nagoya consulate, and the military has been carrying out the voluntary evacaution of military dependents. All US warships have steamed out of Yokosuka, including the aircraft carrier USS George Washington even though it is not fully operational and not even fully manned.

It's hard to reconcile the reassurances of the Japanese government with the actions taken by the US government. I suppose it could be out of an abundance of caution but these are the kinds of actions that really put strain on diplomatic relations, so I'm sure that they are not being done lightly. Makes you wonder what the US government knows that we don't know about.

I forget if I posted this, but the Swedish embassy already told its nationals on the 16th to start taking KI within 250km of Fukushima Daiichi, including those in Tokyo. Granted, there aren't that many Swedes in Japan, but it's part of the pattern.

My friend who evacuated from Japan is having a heck of a time making heads or tails of the news and trying to decide whether or when it is safe to return.
Posted by: Lono

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/22/11 04:17 AM

Today's flight of military families into SeaTac near Seattle consisted of 250 persons, 190 of them children. http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2014564129_japanevacuees22m.html I suspect that pattern will hold should the flights continue; its like the popular reaction of Londoners during the Blitz in WWII, get the children out of harm's way. This opportunity for repatriation of military families is voluntary, but apparently parents want their kids away from potential radiation.

I doubt it would go to a mandatory evacuation for families let alone military personnel, but there might be enough problems or costs with resupply that units could make a tactical retreat from Japan to other bases until stable supply lines are restored. Really though, I don't speak for the Pentagon, I'm talking out of another orifice...
Posted by: Arney

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/22/11 03:48 PM

Early Tuesday morning, aftershocks of magnitude 6.6, 6.4, and 6.6 rocked the northeast part of Japan within two and half hours. That must've been frightening. A 6.6 is not a "small" earthquake.

Rolling blackouts continued in parts of Japan, affecting about 10 million households.
Posted by: Susan

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/22/11 04:41 PM

"It's hard to reconcile the reassurances of the Japanese government with the actions taken by the US government."

Japan is probably trying to prevent a national panic. The U.S. government has always had its own agenda, whether we hear what it really is or not (usually not).

The first Rule of Business probably applies here: Always Follow the Money.

Sue
Posted by: Russ

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/22/11 04:50 PM

This is a good move. US personnel living in Japan use scarce resources just like all Japanese residents. By moving US citizens out and deploying the ships Japan has that many fewer people to supply with food, gas and electricity. While parked on a pier, a US ship uses shore power (electricity) and water. Underway, they have their own power systems on line and make their own fresh water. IMO it's better for all to deploy the ships and send dependents home. FWIW, my opinion
Posted by: Arney

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/22/11 05:13 PM

Originally Posted By: Susan
Japan is probably trying to prevent a national panic. The U.S. government has always had its own agenda, whether we hear what it really is or not (usually not).

I agree on both counts. Such divergent recommendations just make it really hard to gauge the situation based on what either side is recommending that people do, particularly for people like my friend, who are watching the situation from outside Japan and having to decided if and when to return to Tokyo.

One thing is certain so far--none of the Western governments have yet recommended that people return to Tokyo yet.
Posted by: Arney

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/22/11 11:29 PM

I hadn't thought about them, but I guess American teachers who work on the bases in Japan are considered "essential personnel" and they can't evacuate if they wanted to. If they want to send their children home, they have to find someone to take custody of them.

Here's the Stars and Stripes article.
Posted by: Arney

Tokyo tapwater unsafe for babies - 03/23/11 02:16 PM

Authorities warn Tokyo residents that the tapwater contains radiation levels that exceed the safe limit for consumption by babies. The level did fall to just under the limit later, but it's still right on the edge. I hope this is not a sign of more long lasting things to come.

Not surprisingly, store shelves were stripped of bottled water very quickly.

That's one of the frustrating things about radiation--you can have temporary spikes in seemingly random places. The spike scares people and they remember it, even if the level quickly drops again.
Posted by: hikermor

Re: Tokyo tapwater unsafe for babies - 03/23/11 03:02 PM

I wonder if anyone is testing the bottled water for radiation levels.....
Posted by: Arney

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/23/11 05:07 PM

I'd much rather read stories about our military doing things like this in Japan rather than about how many cruise missles we have launched into yet another country.

Quote:
“They are like gods descending from the sky,” said a tearful Junko Fujiwara, 37, a secretary at the elementary-school-turned-shelter in the northern coastal town of Kesennuma.
Posted by: Susan

Re: Tokyo tapwater unsafe for babies - 03/23/11 05:21 PM

"I wonder if anyone is testing the bottled water for radiation levels....."

If the water was bottled before the problems, why would it be an issue?

Sue
Posted by: Brangdon

Re: Tokyo tapwater unsafe for babies - 03/23/11 07:51 PM

Originally Posted By: Arney
Authorities warn Tokyo residents that the tapwater contains radiation levels that exceed the safe limit for consumption by babies. The level did fall to just under the limit later, but it's still right on the edge. I hope this is not a sign of more long lasting things to come.
The hazard is actually not great. Babies would need to consume the contaminated water for a long time before showing measurable harm. Since the radioactivity has a half-life of 8 days, that's not going to happen (unless something else goes wrong, which is unlikely now).

The Japanese government are being excessively cautious again. See for example World Nuclear News.
Posted by: MostlyHarmless

Re: Tokyo tapwater unsafe for babies - 03/23/11 08:48 PM

I haven't checked the international recommendations and guidelines, but my understanding is that those are extremely over-cautious. I guess the Japanese gov is following those guidelines by the letter.

Extremely over-cautious is a good thing. With huge populations, a very small increase in the probability of developing cancer will translate into a number of real people getting seriously ill (though curable, in most circumstances).


Sheep and raindeer grazing in certain mountain areas of Scandinavia are still monitored for radiation levels after Chernobyl. You would have to eat A LOT of meat, and the risk would still not register on the "ridiculously low" part of the scale. Yet, some of these animals will have to be put on special diets for a few weeks to get certain materials out of their system before they can become food for humans.


The most important issue is that you DO NOT want to have any doubt what so ever about food safety and radiation levels. Strict is good.
Posted by: Arney

Re: Tokyo tapwater unsafe for babies - 03/24/11 03:17 PM

Originally Posted By: Arney
Authorities warn Tokyo residents that the tapwater contains radiation levels that exceed the safe limit for consumption by babies...I hope this is not a sign of more long lasting things to come.

The radiation level in Tokyo tapwater has dropped but has gone over the limit for baby consumption in several other prefectures, so this issue is not isolated to just Tokyo. So, as long as the reactors are putting radioactive particles into the environment, I guess we won't know if radioactive tapwater will be a more chronic problem or not yet. However, more and more foodstuffs are showing up contaminated.

Tokyo started an emergency distribution of 3-500ml bottles of water per baby. Although I have not heard if pregnant women get any. Anyway, the radiation level dropped before they really got started, but they are proceeding with the plan anyway.

Certain consumer staples like bottled water, rice, milk, and toilet paper are in short supply in Tokyo and stores have begun limiting how much people can purchase at once. That's pretty shocking for the capital city of one of the wealthiest countries in the world, and at this point, no one really knows when the situation will be alleviated. Electricity will still be in short supply as the weather warms up and the hot, humid summer approaches.
Posted by: desolation

Re: Tokyo tapwater unsafe for babies - 03/24/11 03:35 PM

Originally Posted By: Arney

Certain consumer staples like bottled water, rice, milk, and toilet paper are in short supply in Tokyo and stores have begun limiting how much people can purchase at once. That's pretty shocking for the capital city of one of the wealthiest countries in the world, and at this point, no one really knows when the situation will be alleviated.


Just in time delivery rearing it's ugly head. No one should be surprised by the shortages. It's the system we've demanded to keep it cheap. It's why you prepare.
Posted by: Am_Fear_Liath_Mor

Re: Tokyo tapwater unsafe for babies - 03/24/11 03:47 PM



Neutron radiation bursts have been measured remotely 13 times eminating from the Fukushima plant, indicating possible sub criticality events (Possible Plutonium Fizzles due to cooled gas deposit build ups??) have been constantly reoccurring.

http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/03/80539.html

I don't think we have yet seen the worst. Lets hope we don't have a 1/2 critical mass of Plutonium i.e. a Plutonium stalactite falling into another 1/2 critical mass of pool of molten Plutonium.
Posted by: Susan

Re: Tokyo tapwater unsafe for babies - 03/24/11 04:09 PM

"...stores have begun limiting how much people can purchase at once. That's pretty shocking for the capital city of one of the wealthiest countries in the world..."

I don't understand, why the surprise? In a city (on an island) with a density of 15,000 people per square mile, two weeks after a multiple disaster? What do you think would be happening (even before now) if that 9.0 quake and a tsunami had hit SoCal, and one of the local nuke plants was contaminating all the fresh food?

Sue
Posted by: Arney

Re: Tokyo tapwater unsafe for babies - 03/24/11 04:26 PM

Originally Posted By: Susan
What do you think would be happening (even before now) if that 9.0 quake and a tsunami had hit SoCal, and one of the local nuke plants was contaminating all the fresh food?

I'm not surprised, but I think it's suprising for most Tokyo residents. The analogy is more like stores in San Francisco are rationing when an earthquake hits Los Angeles and San Onofre nuclear power plant, near San Diego, is melting down. Physically, Tokyo was not really damaged, nor do most of these goods come from or through the disaster zones.
Posted by: Dagny

Re: Tokyo tapwater unsafe for babies - 03/24/11 04:32 PM

Originally Posted By: desolation
Originally Posted By: Arney

Certain consumer staples like bottled water, rice, milk, and toilet paper are in short supply in Tokyo and stores have begun limiting how much people can purchase at once. That's pretty shocking for the capital city of one of the wealthiest countries in the world, and at this point, no one really knows when the situation will be alleviated.


Just in time delivery rearing it's ugly head. No one should be surprised by the shortages. It's the system we've demanded to keep it cheap. It's why you prepare.



Washington, D.C. area supermarkets are typically mobbed when there's merely a forecast of snow. Can only imagine what it would be like if the forecast was for radiation. West Virginia, here we come. Take me away country roads.

Doubtful the grocery situation would have been any better fifty years ago. My family lived in Los Angeles during the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 and I recall my parents saying grocery stores were depleted at the height of it. I remember Nana talking about filling the closets with bottled water.

It's the "Just-In-Time" mentality of individuals that puts people and their families at the mercy of groceries' inventories.

Supermarkets, and the corner groceries, can only hold so much and plan for normal consumption, not crises and panic.

Yep, Japan ought to be a big wakeup call to individuals everywhere, not just in earthquake-prone areas. I'm still pummeling my Oregon-based sister's e-mail with earthquake preparedness information.

In searching for data on the average Japan (and Tokyo) home (storage capacity for preparedness) and typical grocery stores, I came across this news on Wal-Mart's contributions to Japan's disaster recovery. Evidently they have a significant presence there.

http://walmartstores.com/pressroom/news/10558.aspx

Walmart was also mounting a full scale operation to get additional relief supplies into Japan. The supplies include 95 tons of water, acrylic blankets, tents, warm clothes, fleece, portable toilets, flashlights, batteries, and other necessary relief items.

Posted by: Am_Fear_Liath_Mor

Re: Tokyo tapwater unsafe for babies - 03/24/11 04:59 PM


Chernobyl Cleanup Survivor's Message for Japan: 'Run Away as Quickly as Possible'

http://www.aolnews.com/2011/03/22/chernobyl-cleanup-survivors-message-for-japan-run-away-as-qui/

Quote:
But didn't you realize the danger and want to leave?
Yes, I knew the danger. All sorts of things happened. One colleague stepped into a rainwater pool and the soles of his feet burned off inside his boots. But I felt it was my duty to stay. I was like a firefighter. Imagine if your house was burning and the firemen came and then left because they thought it was too dangerous.


http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/03/24/jap...reopens/?hpt=T2

Quote:
[3:26 a.m. ET Thursday, 4:26 p.m. Thursday in Tokyo] Two people working at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant were sent to a hospital after being exposed to high levels of radioactive material in surrounding water, according to Japanese officials. A third worker was also exposed, but was not taken to the hospital.
Posted by: Dagny

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/24/11 05:02 PM

This memory of my parents' and grandparents' recollections of the 1962 CMC runs on groceries caused me to go to Time magazine's archives.

There is obviously a distinction between fear of imminent nuclear war and today's Japan situation. But in Tokyo today, there is an actual crisis underway and valid concern of radiation creeping into their food and water supply.

If that happened here in DC, there'd be a stampede of minivans and SUVs zooming (or crawling in gridlock) to Costco, Wal-Mart, Sams and every supermarket, mini-mart and corner grocery within 100 miles of the Beltway, at least.

Note the contemporaneous report below that there was hand-to-hand combat in a Los Angeles grocery over the last can of pork and beans. This excerpt is from the cover article of the November 2, 1962 edition of Time.


http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,874578,00.html

Kennedy explained that the quarantine would cut off offensive weapons from Cuba without stopping "the necessities of life." He warned that "any nuclear missile launched from Cuba against any nation in the Western Hemisphere" would be regarded by the U.S. as an attack by the Soviet Union and would bring full-scale nuclear reprisal against Russia.

Shotguns & Beans. There were some Nervous Nelly reactions in the U.S. The stock market, hardly a symbol of U.S. backbone, dropped sharply next day. In Tampa, sporting-goods stores reported a run on shotguns and rifles. In Dallas, a store reported brisk sales" Of an emergency ration pack of biscuits, malted-milk tablets, chocolate, pemmican and canned water. In Los Angeles, a Civil Defense warning that retail stores would be closed for five days in the event of war or a national emergency sent housewives stampeding into the supermarkets. In one, hand-to-hand combat broke out over the last can of pork and beans.

Said North Hollywood Grocer Sam Goldstad: "They're nuts. One lady's working four shopping carts at once. Another lady bought twelve packages of detergents. What's she going to do, wash up after the bomb?"




The human behavior -- individual and group -- exhibited in crises is fascinating to behold. I believe the Japan situation is unprecedented, with two natural horrors (earthquakes, tsunamis) and a manmade horror (radiation) playing out simultaneously.

I don't recall that this precise situation has happened anywhere in the world, ever.

Posted by: hikermor

Re: Tokyo tapwater unsafe for babies - 03/24/11 05:11 PM

Exacty, just when was the water bottled? I have no good idea, but I wil bet that the interval is fairly short. If I were really worried about radiation, I would appreciate the assurance that my drink was nuke free.
Posted by: Am_Fear_Liath_Mor

Re: Tokyo tapwater unsafe for babies - 03/24/11 05:21 PM

Quote:
Exacty, just when was the water bottled? I have no good idea, but I wil bet that the interval is fairly short. If I were really worried about radiation, I would appreciate the assurance that my drink was nuke free.


Different brands of bottled water are produced locally from tap water (such as Coca Cola's Dasani brand and Pepsico's Aquafina), whilst other brands are produced and bottled at source (such as Perrier, Volvic and Highland Spring etc) then shipped to the international markets.

Even then the Dasani and Aquafina brands will use reverse Osmosis so should remove a high percentage of the radioactive nuclear contamination of the locally produced stuff.

Posted by: Arney

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/24/11 06:03 PM

I found these two time-lapse visual representations of the number of aftershocks experienced by the people in Japan, particularly those closest to the epicenter, including the people working at Fukushima Daiichi. It boggles my mind to watch so many aftershocks occur one after another in this visual display. So many of them are magnitude 5+, so definitely something that you will feel.

I don't know if the people have gradually gotten used to them, or if their hearts still skip a beat each time they feel the ground start to move. Just the stress of all the aftershocks must be wearing people out.

This one covers the first full week since the 9.0.

This one is a completely different representation. It has a haunting soundtrack to it, although the time lapse is slower and it takes a lot more patience to watch it (I didn't make it to the end). The big quake doesn't hit till about the 0:51 mark in the video, in case you're tempted to give up after half a minute of watching nothing happening.
Posted by: Dagny

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/24/11 06:21 PM

Originally Posted By: Arney
I found these two time-lapse visual representations of the number of aftershocks experienced by the people in Japan, particularly those closest to the epicenter, including the people working at Fukushima Daiichi. It boggles my mind to watch so many aftershocks occur one after another in this visual display.


I'm punch-drunk just from the first video.

Thanks for the links, Arney.
Posted by: desolation

Re: Tokyo tapwater unsafe for babies - 03/24/11 07:35 PM

Originally Posted By: hikermor
Exacty, just when was the water bottled? I have no good idea, but I wil bet that the interval is fairly short. If I were really worried about radiation, I would appreciate the assurance that my drink was nuke free.


Time to break out the sake, then. crazy
Posted by: Am_Fear_Liath_Mor

Re: Tokyo tapwater unsafe for babies - 03/24/11 07:56 PM


Apparently it was just harmless pollen and not Yellowcake Nuclear fallout.

http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/03/80675.html
Posted by: Pete

Re: Tokyo tapwater unsafe for babies - 03/24/11 08:47 PM

"If that happened here in DC, there'd be a stampede of minivans and SUVs zooming (or crawling in gridlock) to Costco, Wal-Mart, Sams and every supermarket, mini-mart and corner grocery within 100 miles of the Beltway, at least."

You just identified a major problem in modern Amercican life. The omni-present SUV. Hadn't stopped to consider that before. Suppose one panicked mother - or father - drives up to a supermarket in an SUV. Just how many cases of bottled water, and how many cans of soup, do you think they can load into one vehicle? I bet it's a lot. This type of hoarding is going to be a BIG problem in a real disaster.

"Note the contemporaneous report below that there was hand-to-hand combat in a Los Angeles grocery over the last can of pork and beans. This excerpt is from the cover article of the November 2, 1962 edition of Time."

Ha! Ha!! A black eye over pork-and-beans. That's pretty pathetic. And there wan't even a nuclear incident in 1962. This is doing a lot to encourage me to stock up my food supplies now.

Pete #2
Posted by: Eugene

Re: Tokyo tapwater unsafe for babies - 03/25/11 12:49 AM

A few years ago we received a note in our water bill letting us know that our water tested too high for something and we shouldn't let infants or toddlers drink it. Our son was about one year old and we had started him on those transition cereals where you mix the powder with water. So we ended up having to buy water to use for him. I'd buy those big 2 gallon square just, they were far more space efficient that small round bottles.
We received no other notice letting us know when the water actually tested unsafe or no notice letting us know when it was safe again, real nice communication of our city at work.
Posted by: Arney

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/25/11 04:12 AM

The government is now calling for the voluntary evacuation of the 20-30km zone around Fukushima Daiichi. Until now, that zone has been under a shelter-in-place order. The reason given for this change is not radiation, but because supplies in the zone are dwindling and they are having trouble re-supplying the area. Apparently truck drivers are refusing to enter the area due to radiation concerns. Lack of fuel in the zone is also an issue.

Edit: This morning, been reading about conflicting statements by the government and TEPCO regarding the possible loss of containment in the reactor vessel for reactor 3. Reactor 1 is also apparently far from being stabilized. So, depending on whom you believe, the situation is arguably getting worse again and perhaps this is the reason for the new voluntary evacuation order for the 20-30km zone.
Posted by: Lono

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/25/11 11:57 AM

Originally Posted By: Arney
I found these two time-lapse visual representations of the number of aftershocks experienced by the people in Japan, particularly those closest to the epicenter, including the people working at Fukushima Daiichi. It boggles my mind to watch so many aftershocks occur one after another in this visual display. So many of them are magnitude 5+, so definitely something that you will feel.

I don't know if the people have gradually gotten used to them, or if their hearts still skip a beat each time they feel the ground start to move. Just the stress of all the aftershocks must be wearing people out.

This one covers the first full week since the 9.0.

This one is a completely different representation. It has a haunting soundtrack to it, although the time lapse is slower and it takes a lot more patience to watch it (I didn't make it to the end). The big quake doesn't hit till about the 0:51 mark in the video, in case you're tempted to give up after half a minute of watching nothing happening.


This is a popular link to time-lapse visualizations of earthquakes in Japan, http://www.japanquakemap.com/. Maybe its already been posted. It drives home the point that for every major quake, there are hundreds or even thousands of aftershocks, a great many felt. Guaranteed to drive up the stress level among survivors.
Posted by: Brangdon

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 03/27/11 01:40 PM

This link: Some Perspective On The Japan Earthquake talks about preparedness in Japan. It is upbeat and well-worth reading. "Tsunami” and “typhoon" are Japanese words, but there is no Japanese word for "excessive preparation".

"The story of Japanese railways during the earthquake and tsunami is the story of an unceasing drumbeat of everything going right."
Posted by: Brangdon

Re: Tokyo tapwater unsafe for babies - 03/28/11 11:16 AM

Originally Posted By: Arney
Electricity will still be in short supply as the weather warms up and the hot, humid summer approaches.
That's likely to be the biggest real health consequence of the reactor failures. They probably won't be able to restart all the Fukushima reactors, they don't have spare capacity locally, and they don't have a national grid. I gather they rely on air-conditioning in summer, and some older people are at risk if they don't have power.

More on the power situation at Techworld.
Posted by: Arney

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 04/07/11 03:09 PM

The biggest aftershock after March 11th just occurred. A 7.4. On any other day, this would've been a big quake all by itself. I'm not in front of a TV so I don't know what happened after the tsunami warning went out.

I just hope nothing got shaken loose at Fukushima Daiichi.
Posted by: Arney

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 04/09/11 03:21 PM

This 75-year old gentleman has been stranded at his quake-ravaged home and hasn't seen a soul, including his wife, since the day the 9.0 quake and tsunami struck. Oh...and he's within the 20km evacuation zone of Fukushima Daiichi. These journalists stumbled across his house.

He knows about the evacuation order from listening to a battery-powered radio but he can barely walk and his car is stuck in the mud. His house is standing, but there's no power, no heat, no running water. Poor guy. Must've been incredibly lonely and desolate out there all by himself on top of the physical hardship.
Posted by: Arney

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 04/11/11 03:12 PM

Although really only mentioned in the subheading of this news article, it's an illuminating bit of news. It says:

Quote:
Tens of millions of yen in cash and hundreds of locked safes have been handed in to police stations across northern Japan by people sifting through the debris of the March 11 earthquake and tsunami.

Granted, much of the cash and many of these safes may have been found by police, fire fighters, and Self-Defense Force soldiers, but maybe not. Numbers-wise, normal people sifting through the debris probably account for the most people, so they are probably the ones finding most of these valuables and turning them in.
Posted by: Arney

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 04/22/11 12:02 AM

Was just reading this report on why the Japan quake was so large.

Apparently, current seismic understanding is that a fault typically only slips in isolated segments, but in the Japan quake, a number of different segments of the fault gave way together, resulting in the massive 9.0 quake. Sounds like that is primarily why seismologists had not predicted a larger quake (and resulting tsunami) to hit that region of Japan.

I'm curious if research like this will raise the hazard level of places like the Pacific Northwest or West Coast. That would be quite an economic cost if building codes were strengenthed for structures built in these areas.
Posted by: dougwalkabout

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 04/22/11 02:36 AM

Originally Posted By: Arney
Although really only mentioned in the subheading of this news article, it's an illuminating bit of news. It says:

Quote:
Tens of millions of yen in cash and hundreds of locked safes have been handed in to police stations across northern Japan by people sifting through the debris of the March 11 earthquake and tsunami.

Granted, much of the cash and many of these safes may have been found by police, fire fighters, and Self-Defense Force soldiers, but maybe not. Numbers-wise, normal people sifting through the debris probably account for the most people, so they are probably the ones finding most of these valuables and turning them in.


What's most surprising is that we find this surprising.
Posted by: Lono

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 04/22/11 02:31 PM

Originally Posted By: Arney
Was just reading this report on why the Japan quake was so large.

Apparently, current seismic understanding is that a fault typically only slips in isolated segments, but in the Japan quake, a number of different segments of the fault gave way together, resulting in the massive 9.0 quake. Sounds like that is primarily why seismologists had not predicted a larger quake (and resulting tsunami) to hit that region of Japan.

I'm curious if research like this will raise the hazard level of places like the Pacific Northwest or West Coast. That would be quite an economic cost if building codes were strengenthed for structures built in these areas.


At least among emergency planners, the magnitude of the earthquakes in Chile, New Zealand and Japan raise some new questions about our general preparedness in the PNW, although if you pore into the research questions some have been asking these question for a while, the rest of us are just starting to notice their observations. The most significant realization I think is not that a 9.0 quake could hit here, everyone assumed that, but that the 9.0 could go on for 4-5 minutes: to this point most predictions were for shorter duration quakes, a minute or so of shaking. I think that was based on research of our most recent subduction zone quake a few hundred years ago. Longer duration wuakes may have some dire consequences not considered - liquefaction would be more severe, would be far more wide spread than typically assumed, and the basic safety of built structures not as good under the longer duration shakes. There are *lots* of places I wouldn't want to be in a M9.0 5 minute quake - and depending on the timing of the quake, lots of folks will be in those places.

Whether these predictions make their way into urban planning or building code is another matter - and maybe they shouldn't. I'm not an engineer, but I'm not sure very many structures can survive a nearby 9.0M quake; or put it another way, is there a way to retrofit existing structures, most built to pre-1970s codes, to survive such a shake. Or, should we continue to build structures and infrastructures on land that will be thoroughly liquified by a quake. I think the short answer to all this is no, we build as usual, not for ultimate survival - there is far too much investment in lands and built structures subject to liquefaction to abandon it, or rebuild it to a new standard. Fundamentally, Americans have a different perspective than the Japanese - we tend to bulldoze over our historical structures (there are exceptions of course), rather than design them to survive every contingency, including an M9.0 that might occur only every 500-700 years. America has only existed for half that amount of time: we may not have enough perspective to build for a longer duration disaster cycle. So we will lose a fair amount of this build investment and the people in them should an M9.0 happen in our lifetimes. A better question may be, can we make better decisions about infrastructure, such as gas pipelines, water systems, or, say, waterfront tunnels through liquefaction zones, such that they can survive this type of quake in better shape?
Posted by: Arney

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 04/22/11 03:22 PM

Some really good points, Lono.
Posted by: Susan

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 04/22/11 03:35 PM

"I think is not that a 9.0 quake could hit here, everyone assumed that, but that the 9.0 could go on for 4-5 minutes: to this point most predictions were for shorter duration quakes, a minute or so of shaking."

I don't know why people would think that after the 1964 Anchorage Earthquake. It was a 9.2 and lasted between 3-5 minutes (a quick search couldn't pin it down).

"...should we continue to build structures and infrastructures on land that will be thoroughly liquified by a quake."

Several posters here have pointed out the dangers of being in the S. Seattle area if a strong quake hit in the right place. The area is very susceptible to liquification. Right now, there is a fight to replace the existing elevated viaduct (same construction as the viaduct that collapsed in San Francisco in the 1989 Loma Prieta quake), and replace it with an UNDERGROUND TUNNEL! Right on the edge of Elliott Bay.

Unfortunately, the decisions are made by the same people who stand to make the most money. They aren't going to live there, they aren't going to work there. They don't mind setting up thousands of faceless strangers to die. They can look at the info provided by geologists and other scientists, and sweep it aside. If they take down the viaduct and build the tunnel, there is suddenly going to be a rather large patch of prime new real estate available in Seattle. And that's all they're looking at.

Science vs. Greed. And which do YOU think will win?

Sue
Posted by: Pete

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 04/27/11 01:32 AM

There is an ongoing concern right now that a magnitude 8 earthquale could hit Japan, possibly closer to Tokyo. This expectation is not based upon unreliable "earthquake prediction" methods. It is actually based on considerable experience with aftershocks of major quakes. Since the big quake that hit Sendai was a 9.0 (epicenter located offshore), seismologists feel that is quite reasonable to expect at least one magnitude 8 aftershock, and maybe ten aftershocks around magnitude 7. Also, since the aftershock pattern has been moving southeast (roughly) from the original epicenter, that would put the epicenters of the future quakes closer to Tokyo.

Therefore, don't be surprised to wake up in the next few months, or next couple of years, and hear about a magnitude 8 quake affecting Tokyo. Clearly, this is not an easy time for the Japanese people.

Pete #2
Posted by: Arney

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 04/27/11 04:42 PM

Originally Posted By: Pete
This expectation is not based upon unreliable "earthquake prediction" methods. It is actually based on considerable experience with aftershocks of major quakes.

Well, these estimates are based on historical averages, so all they can do is give you an idea of what "typically" happens. It's a rule of thumb, like the Rule of 3's is a survival rule of thumb, that a 9.0 earthquake will typical be followed by one 8.0, ten 7.0's, a hundred 6.0's, etc. The biggest aftershock they have had so far is a 7.9 that occurred shortly after the main quake, and a 7.1 (originally reported as 7.4) earlier in April.

I do worry about Tokyo, however. The earthquake did shift stress onto the fault system close to Tokyo but no one has any idea if that has substantially increased the risk of a megaquake there. Geologists have never found any solid evidence that major quakes can trigger other major quakes--at least on our time scale. Actually, a variation of this understanding is why the Japan quake was so surprising--it caused the rupture of a series of areas of built up stress along the fault, which seismologists say does not normally happen. Normally only an isolated area of stress is released in an earthquake.

Therefore, the observation that stress was transferred southward towards Tokyo doesn't mean that the risk for Tokyo of a megaquake has significantly increased above what it already was. Let's hope that's true. They already have enough to worry about.
Posted by: hikermor

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 04/27/11 05:07 PM

Bottom line is that Tokyo is at risk for major quakes, just like LA and San Fran...Remember 1923?
Posted by: Susan

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 04/30/11 08:13 PM

And then there's the possibility that the 9.0 was a foreshock to an even bigger one.

Ma Nature does love her jokes.

Sue
Posted by: Famdoc

Re: Earthqauke in Japan - 05/18/11 12:23 AM

A recent report by a US based governmental consulting company on the Japan disasters and implications for if something as catastrophic happened in the US. No affiliation to it, etc. Japan apparently advised 48 hr. of personal preparation nationwide; not nearly long enough for those in the area affected. A good bit of this roundtable is redundant, but there are numerous details and points I haven't seen elsewhere:

http://www.cna.org/sites/default/files/news/2011/SAS%20Experts%20Roundtable%20on%20Great%20East%20Japan%20Earthquake%20%283%29.pdf