Californians Not Prepared For the Big One

California's Emergency Management agency recently reported that most of the state's citizens aren't prepared for "the big one." And it's certainly not because they don't know better. Uh, right?

Why is it that people wait for the asteroid to enter the atmosphere before they start to freak out?

Read more about it here, plus links to a nytimes story that ran today and the actual survey (for example: 60% of Californians don't have 3 gallons of water, per person, stored at home). Actually, I kind of thought it'd be more like 80 percent, but since it's a well known phenomenon that people lie when they're surveyed, it probably is closer to 80%.

Good post. Although when you think of all the junk people keep around, you think there'd be room for at least a little h2o. Can you post a link to your column/site?

I'm in Washington state and most aren't prepared here either and we could be in for a major quake as well. I think the folks who live in the rural areas are a little better prepared but I'm just basing that on folks I know.

I think if you take a poll of any urban area you will find most people are not prepared for much of anything. Why be prepared, water comes from the tap, electricity from the wall, food from the store down the street. Life is good, don't worry, be happy.

And golly, should something bad happen, the Government will be there to bail them out. That's why that pay taxes doncha know.

Personally, I think it's Darwinism at its' finest, but what do I know?

At least my parents are in that 20-40%, as is my aunt and grandmother. probably.

Izzy, that comment has been made before, and has me wondering, is there any truth to it?

B/c let's face it, the Sierra's are made by pushing land UP, if you look at the coastline (especially Central CA), you'll see cliffs. Not exactly the geography of a sinking area.

Personally, I think that CA is moving OUT of the water, not into it. And I doubt that timeline too - earthquakes have been here for centuries.

To be literal, the relative movement along the San Andreas Fault is lateral (sideways). Relatively speaking, the west (Los Angeles) side is moving north at about 2 cm a year, about the speed with which your nails grow. There are local variations as crustal blocks collide and compress. Locally we are going up at about 4mm a year.

The western part of CA is not the same landmass as the continental US. The two landmasses happen to abut one another right now, rubbing against each other causing earthquakes... I believe the Sierra's are the CONUS landmass being pushed up.

In 200-300 years western CA will be several feet north of where it is now, with several impressive earthquakes in the history books as a result. Append several more zeros to that interval and from memory I think the belief is that the western part of CA moves offshore, looking like Baja CA, eventually splitting off entirely.

All the predictions have probably changed in the 30+ years since I last read a geography textbook, but I am quite certain of one point: by the time CA moves 15+ feet north, the history books will list some major earthquakes throughout CA.

"I'm in Washington state and most aren't prepared here either and we could be in for a major quake as well. I think the folks who live in the rural areas are a little better prepared but I'm just basing that on folks I know."

I live in WA, in a one-signal-light town, and every time there is a high wind warning, the local stores are stripped of the same things: water, beer, canned beef stew, baby formula, diapers, peanut butter, etc. If they didn't get a warning, I guess they'd all be up the creek.

The country people don't seem to plan ahead any better than the city people. People here have animals, large animals, lots of animals, and they don't even have a rainwater-collection pond, cistern, swimming pool, etc, to be able to water their livestock if they lose power to their well pump.

During the last big windstorm, the local feed store put out the word that they had power and well water (bring your own containers), and people were taking her up on it.

I guess when the government does all your thinking, all your planning and all the preparing for you (so they think), you don't have to worry about anything... just pull out the lawn chairs and wait for the Red Cross and National Guard to deliver the fried chicken and beer.

Sue

I think this has a lot to do with the problem of large numbers of people being unprepared. Especially when coupled with areas that don't experience relatively frequent distribution/supply problems. As you go into places where supply problems become more and more visible, on a season basis, such as areas where there are frequent Hurricanes, Floods and Snowstorms you tend to see better preparations in a wider range of the population.

I think that is about the normal percentage of prepared to not prepared.
Even if we say only 20% are prepared that is still 1 person out of 5 who is good to go.
When I look around at different places I have to think it is actually pretty good to get 1/5 of the people prepared.
I would like to see it the other way around with only 20% unequipped for emergency, but I doubt if that will ever happen.

I enjoyed reading it. Based on what you disclose in public, I can certainly picture you as a Victorian era gentleman....

I've lived in San Diego since I was 7. Californians know earthquakes can happen, but they don't happen very often in any given area. Which tends to leave us complacent about quakes.

(In the 40-some years I've been here, I've experienced many of them, but only 2 or 3 significant ones, at most. And that includes last Sunday's. All the rest were nothing to even get upset over. )

Like anywhere else, most Californians don't even think about the possibility of something unpleasant happening to them. And of the few who actually do consider the possibility, most of them tend to feel they have plenty of time to protect themselves from an earthquake. "After all, it's not like there's going to be one tomorrow!"

Man, I would have loved to have had that conversation with one of them on Saturday.

Well, there's something to the psychology of preparedness that we still don't have a good handle on. What are the chances of a violent home invasion or child abduction by a stranger or rape by a stranger to them? Very low. Yet these particular events are in the forefront of many people's consciousness on a daily basis even if they live in safe La Jolla or Rancho Bernardo.

I find it amusing but dismaying, too, that a certain major security company only uses examples of violent home invasions to sell their products/services in TV commercials lately. Gee, remember when they used to be called "burglar alarms" and the commercials would show a guy in a ski mask peek his head above the window sill? The commercials dismay me since fear is used far too often to sell things or for political purposes. But, I guess it's easier to get people to act on fear than to stand up for something in a positive way, unfortunately. Preparedness should be a positive lifestyle choice, not something done out of fear but that approach doesn't seem to work too well as we see from these earthquake prep numbers.

When it comes down to it, most people figure it can't happen to them. Then when it does, it's the self-same idiots on TV complaining that the government isn't there right freaking now to take care of them.

I would hazard to guess most of the people here figure Uncle will have a rectal/cranial inversion as has been the case most of the time and prefer to rely on themselves and neighbors/friends to get out of a jam.

Frankly, after a disaster, I won't be worrying about the other guy until this guy is squared away. And the nice government man can go help him if/when he shows up.

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

"Even if we say only 20% are prepared that is still 1 person out of 5 who is good to go"

I suspect that those 20% (and I think that's a very high estimate) are people who have made at least some preparation, such as having 5 gallons of extra water in a delivered bottle (practically accidental). I seriously doubt that 20% have gone as far as having even three days of necessities on hand.

I've asked several people here in WA (co-workers) if they've made any preparations, and every single one said 'No'. I asked what their plan was if an earthquake hit that night, and the overall response was, "I guess we'll just sit and wait for someone to bring us water and food". And whine and complain that the delivery wasn't fast enough, the water was flat, and the food wasn't hot pizza and hamburgers, and wondering when the local casino would be open again.

Sue

Most people with a house have a hot water heater, so they have 30 to 50 gallons of water on hand. If you have a neighbor with a pool, you have water for cleaning things, and flushing a toilet if your plumbing is in tack. It is harder for those in an apartment.

Predictions are that SoCal would have little water for three weeks, not three days. After a trial several years ago, I decided that 3 gal of water per person per day was a better estimate of what would be required. I then kept one 55 gallon plastic container per person, plus some smaller containers for water transfer. My wife always complained, until the day we lost water due to a water main break.

I would be fascinating to grab a thousand people at a mall and sit them down to ask specific questions about their actual preparations (if any).

I wonder how many have even considered there would be water available in their water heater? Do they know enough to pull the lower section of a downspout off to collect rainwater into a container?

It would also be interesting if a disaster occurred, to make a point of finding out how people dealt with it, what makeshift plans they came up with, and even more importantly, if that disaster made them more aware of what they should do in the future.

Alas, everyone would be so busy trying to deal with the problems that there wouldn't be anyone with the spare time to take notes.

Sue

I would say 75% or more of Angelenos,are Definitely prepared for some type of Major disaster,Mainly Earthquake's & Rioting!Now for How long of a duration?My household can go for 3-4 weeks,before I start to worry.If we should experience an Earthquake with the possibility of a Firestorm thereafter,then there will probably be Mass Panic of Great Proportion!At that point,I guess Evacuation to the Pacific ocean would be our Best bet.Should there be Tsunami's,Well... They don't call it La Basin for nothing now ,do they?

You've got a more optimistic view of people than I do.

My own impression is that the majority of people have enough food to get through to the next payday, and whatever bottled water is left from the last case they bought. They have no clue how to access the water in a water heater, and think they can drink swimming pool water in an emergency.

Sunday's earthquake made almost no difference in the attitudes around my job. Instead of "Well, they don't happen often, so I've got plenty of time", now it's "Well, now it'll be a long time before we have another one."

If the Baja quake relieved stress on San Andreas that might be true, but I'd have expected to see some sympathetic response out of San Andreas and that fault zone (northeast side of Salton Sea) looks very quiet. I really don't think it did squat with regard to the Big One.

I must admit I'm on the skeptical side as well. Most people in LA don't even realize its a harsh desert with very few natural water sources. Even a slight reduction in the amount of water that flows south every day would dramatically alter life here. Of course cities like Las Vegas and Phoenix are in the same boat.

Read up on the Northridge quake of 1994. It messed things up royally for a bit, but the average person coped, and evidently did reasonably well. There were no water or food riots, unlike the Rodney King situation a few years earlier.

Depending upon which section of Los Angeles you are considering, you might be able to make a case for concern about other, more threatening hazards than earthquakes - stray bullets from gangbangers and the ubiquitous auto accidents, for instance.

I like to think that I have prepared for earthquakes and other potential disasters (wild fires). I have about thirty gallons of water stockpiled, plus the water heater, along with food and plenty of camping and outdoor gear and I pay for earthquake insurance. But I am probably not as prepared as I would like to think, especially if the Big One comes.

75% of the population of LA is derived South of the border.They know Lack of Water,probably better than Most Americans!They also know Disasters of Monstrous Proportions,Better than Most Americans!They are prepared for Disaster.I've been in Many Homes of my co-workers/friends & They are Well Stocked,For anything,come what may!They All have knowledge of Why,What,How to Survive through Disasters,Usually of Greater Proportions,than the rest of LA society.

Hikermor, do you have some of the stuff in your home strapped down? Water heater, refrigerator, upright freezer, etc? That seems to be one thing that most people is EQ country overlook.

Just wondering...

Sue

Yes. Over the years, I have improved the strapping of my water heater, from improvised sketchy to officially sturdy (I believe strapping is now mandatory in most of Cal these days). The reefer is secure, and I am most concerned about the unreinforced masonry fireplace chimney - I screwed down some plywood pieces in the attic to provide shielding.

Also took the mirror off the bedroom ceiling - a really bad idea in California, despite the "Hotel California" lyrics ("mirror on the ceiling, pink champagne on ice...."

In the United States, for most areas, you live in a very controlled environment. Risk has been reduced for your daily events to a point you don't see the actual risk. I think people compensate. That would be a nice emergency management experiment to find out if the level of daily risk correlates to preparedness. Most areas that have this level of daily risk probably are not as rich as others. This risk can be stuff like gang violence, or just the lack of enforcement of traffic laws.

Security should go along with that water you're storing. In fact, security is more important. Take a look at what happened recently in the earthquakes in Haiti and Chile. Heck, study any disaster where resources suddenly became scarce. Once the resources started dwindling, people started looting. It's human nature. You can have 100 gallons stored up. Unfortunately, your next door neighbor with a rifle is better equipped than you if you have no security. Your water and all your stuff become his stuff if he so desires.

Good idea. What, exactly, did happen on Haiti and Chile? I know the standard media reports of "looting" appeared and I don't doubt that non-compensated transfers of material property occurred, but most of what I saw was pretty general stuff. I would differentiate between people taking vital supplies from untended commercial establishments and folks ripping off flat screen TVs and high heel shoes just because nobody could stop them. Were people taking supplies from each other or just from stores, etc?

I am not trying to deny that looting does occur - we saw plenty here in SoCal during the Rodney King riots (those had nothing to do with material shortages IIRC) - but when and under what circumstances does looting begin? I am pretty sure there are better sources of real information than the general media blurbs, but I am genuinely ignorant. I'll bet it doesn't start on a neighbor to neighbor basis (unless you have really poor relations with your neighbors)

And, by the way, I took long ago steps to enhance my security. It is a game I play by the numbers. Some of my favorite numbers are 12G, 357, and 6mm. 45 is a nice number, but I don't play it currently.

I don't care to argue about the risk of looting. I'll just accept looting as being a problem like I already know it is, and I'll plan accordingly. Note that it's easy to downplay the problem of looting when you have your guns and ammo nicely stacked up. I do too.