Yellowstone?

OK, so I'm not usually one to worry about mega-disasters. Though I suppose a big hurricane hitting New York qualifies in some senses. However. . .

My brother just got back from a trip to Yellowstone. (Great trip - saw elk, bison, coyotes, wolves, and all sorts of cool geological features.) During the four days he was there, he reports that there were five hundred (500!!!) small earthquakes. Additionally, patterns in the geysers were changing - some becoming more frequent, some less, and some erupting in places where non had been previously.

I've always assumed that an eruption of the Yellowstone Caldera would qualify as a Very Bad Thing but never gave it too much thought.

So, for those who have done more research, is this something that I should be more concerned about? Is this change in seismic activity out of the ordinary? Any thought on what it means?

Jesselp, feeling a bit apocalyptic.

I posted this recent article in another thread.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/01/science/01yellowstone.html

Apparently there has been a significant increase in the number of earthquakes, but its not unprecedented. Worth keeping an eye on.

A little research goes a long way. . .

Press Release
University of Utah Seismograph Stations

Released: February 03, 2010 10:00 AM MST

This release is a continuation of information updates building upon our five previous press releases on the ongoing earthquake swarm on the west side of Yellowstone National Park.

The University of Utah Seismograph Stations reports that a period of increased seismic activity occurred on February 2, 2010 beginning at ~3:30 PM MST. This period of increased activity lasted about 6 hours and included at least 2 events that were reported felt in Yellowstone National Park. The two largest earthquakes during this sequence were magnitude 3.1 and 2.8 that occurred at 7:31 PM and 7:44 PM respectively.

These earthquakes are part of an ongoing swarm in Yellowstone National Park that began January 17, 2010 (1:00 PM MST). The largest earthquake in the swarm as of 7 AM MST, February 03, 2010, has been a magnitude 3.8. There have been 1,719 located earthquakes in the swarm of magnitude 0.3 to 3.8. This includes 14 events of magnitude larger than 3, with 135 events of magnitude 2 to 3, and 1,570 events of magnitude less than 2. There have been multiple personal reports of ground shaking from observers inside the Park and in surrounding areas for some of the larger events (for felt reports, please visit http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/dyfi/). Earthquake swarms are relatively common in Yellowstone.

Yellowstone Volcano Observatory scientists still consider that the swarm events are likely the result of slip on pre-existing faults and are not thought to be caused by underground movement of magma. Currently there is no indication of premonitory volcanic or hydrothermal activity, but ongoing observations and analyses will continue to evaluate these different sources.

Seismic information on the earthquake can be viewed at the University of Utah Seismograph Stations: http://www.seis.utah.edu/.

Seismograph recordings from stations of the Yellowstone seismograph network can be viewed online at: http://quake.utah.edu/helicorder/yell_webi.htm.

Anyone who has felt earthquakes in the swarm are encouraged to fill out a form on the USGS Community Felt reports web site: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/dyfi/.

This press release was prepared by the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory partners of the U.S. Geol. Survey, the University of Utah, and the National Park Service: http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo/

A bug hurricane would be AWFUL! They would be splattered all over those billions of windows in the skyscrapers. Of course, it would keep the window cleaning companies busy for some time to come.

Sue

Yellowstone having a fit in the worse way possible would be bad, very bad, biblical-scale bad, the end of days, game over, bad for most of the US and the better part of Mexico. It could also throw the levers of climate the other way for decades, perhaps a generation. At least one source suggests that there would be global cooling, a possible die-off, perhaps an ice age. It would change things globally for a time.

The good news is that, based on the evidence I've seen, not that I'm a geologist, it doesn't look highly likely any time soon. But lots of people are watching. The USGS and US government earthquake centers are good sources of reliable information.

A useful site that is following the situation and doing a good job of explaining:
http://scienceblogs.com/eruptions/2010/02/the_structure_of_calderas.php

Holy crap. How in the world do you prepare for a bug hurricane!??

With a scraper, a bowl and a spoon.
-Blast

jeez you are just too tough. I would at least want some seasonings, tobasco or something... As long as you are talking about preparing...

And a lot of hot sauce!

...and some blue cheese for that bowl of "wings"...

Note to self: Proofread posts more carefully before posting. Spell check does not pick up on all errors. . .

Spell Czech -- gets ewe every thyme!

Yellowstone is one of those scenarios that makes one pause, to be sure. Sort of like a meteor collision, in that we know that it's statistically probable, but it's a topic we'd prefer to regulate to doomsdayers and filmmakers with large CGI budgets.

I personally wouldn't be too concerned about the Yellowstone Caldera going bang, but if it does then tough times are ahead for everyone.

Not being a geologist I think from what I have gathered is that a Magma flow in a volcano exhibits what are called harmonic tremors. Basically a very long duration series of earth tremors where one earthquake is pretty indistinguishable from another. (showing long period or very long wavelength frequencies coupled to the higher frequency oscillations)

Rather than look at the USGS list of earthquakes in the Yellowstone region the seismographs nearest the earthquake swarm in Yellowstone is probably a better indication of what is going on;

http://quake.utah.edu/helicorder/ymr_webi_3d.htm

Although the University of Utah doesn't believe that there are no tremors associated with volcanic magma movement (i.e. harmonic tremors) with the current Yellowstone earthquake swarm, I do believe myself that there is some evidence of limited harmonic tremors energising the the larger earthquake events (i.e M> 2.5) that might be associated with fault slippage.

The fact that there is also another current earthquake swarm here in northern California just north of San Francisco coupled with lots of activity in in the Mexicali volcanic activity region and the recent 5.9 earthquake of the coast of California yesterday (near Eureka again) doesn't do much for confidence either. Certainly seems like something is brewing in this part of the world on the ring of fire.

Two years ago there was an earthquake swarm near Reno, and a few years before that, another swarm near Mammoth. Whloe lot os shakin' goin' on.

I agree, Yellowstone is a high-impact low-threat (relatively speaking) problem. You should not specifically prepare for it. You should however think about skills that would be very useful in an environment after a volcano that you might want to learn to have an edge on surviving. Things like: negotiations/persuasion/leadership (you may not be the leader, but you'll need to know where to fit in), weapons training, gardening/farming, cooking, metal working, building small structures, and the list goes on.

Use an all-hazards type of mentality, don't focus on the high-impact low-threat ( i.e. TEOTWAWKI ), but learn skills that will be valuable. If you have a degree in something that is less than 100 years old, it generally probably will not help you in something like a TEOTWAWKI event.

Yep, I put Yellowstone into the "Not much we can do about it now" category. It's really an event that you can only prepare for generally. Beyond that, I don't have access to the sort of resources I'd need to really mitigate such an event. You just hope you survive the initial blast and debris storm, and then apply general survival knowledge after the fact as best you can.

The one thing I did manage was to relocate to a place where the inital impact would hopefully be lessened. That and I do have access to some rather hardened areas here that I didn't anywhere else in CONUS. Whether I can get to them in time even locally will still be a risk.

IIRC, the Science Channel talked about the yellowstone area and it's possible role in the extinction of the dinosaurs 65 million years ago and it's role in the end of mankind. Of course the same show was talking about killer asteroids and other such planet-killing, TEOTWAWKI phenomena. not much you can do to prepare for those things other than what Ben said. Increase your skill base, knowledge base, library, etc, hope you survive the initial blast and do your best to survive.

Mark, who is considering a career change but wondering if it really matters in the shadow of the apocalypse.
*doing my best Blast imitation*