72 vs. 96 Hours (LONG post)

On the anniversary of Katrina (see elsewhere in this forum for an excellent article and retrospective on it) I find myself charged with the task of developing plans for our tiny community.

The new head of FEMA - Craig Fugate - is the subject of an article in The Atlantic (link) which I read last week.

I pull this (long) quote from the full article:

“We need to change behavior in this country,” he told about 400 emergency-management instructors at a conference in June, lambasting the “government-centric” approach to disasters. He learned a perverse lesson in Florida: the more the federal government does in routine emergencies, the greater the odds of catastrophic failure in a big disaster. “It’s like a Chinese finger trap,” he told me last spring, as a hailstorm fittingly raged outside his office. If the feds do more, the public, along with state and local officials, do less. They come to expect ice and water in 24 hours and full reimbursement for sodden carpets. But as part of a federal system, FEMA is designed to defer to state and local officials. If another Katrina hits, and the locals are overwhelmed, a full-strength federal response will inevitably take time. People who need help the most—the elderly, the disabled, and the poor—may not get it fast enough.

To avoid “system collapse,” as he puts it, Fugate insists that the government must draft the public. “We tend to look at the public as a liability. [But] who is going to be the fastest responder when your house falls on your head? Your neighbor.” A few years ago, Fugate dropped the word victim from his vocabulary. “You’re not going to hear me refer to people as victims unless we’ve lost ’em. I call them survivors.” He criticizes the media for “celebrating” people who choose not to evacuate and then have to be rescued on live TV—while ignoring all the people who were prepared. “This is a tragedy, this whole Shakespearean circle we’re in. You never hear the media say, ‘Hey, you’re putting this rescue worker in danger.’”

At his first all-staff meeting with FEMA employees, Fugate asked for a show of hands: “How many people here have your family disaster plan ready to go? [If you don’t], you just failed your first test … If you’re going to be an emergency manager, the first place you start is at home.” Already, Fugate is factoring citizens into the agency’s models for catastrophic planning, thinking of them as rescuers and responders, not just victims. And he has changed FEMA’s mission statement from the old, paternalistic (and fantastical) vow to “protect the Nation from all hazards” to a more modest, collaborative pledge to “support our citizens and first responders to ensure that as a nation we work together.”

I am particularly fond of this guy's approach - as a local emergency manager, it's good to hear someone from the Federal level talking like this.

But I do have to say that the one thing I hear clearly in all of this is that the 72 hour kit concept is probably invalid and that the 96 hour "homestead" is likely the better plan.

As I've posted here, I went to a 96 hour plan a few years ago, and in a recent storm we got to test out some of our plans and assumptions (it was all good).

But I'd like to see more talk here about specific needs and action plans FOR YOUR COMMUNITY. Do you know your neighbors? Do you know your community? Do you know what you're good at in an emergency? Do you really, actually truly have the capacity to live in your home with no electric, water or heat for 5 days?

This guy's quote is right on. Interesting he didn't say how many of his managers raised their hands when asked about their own emergency kit.

I live in an eight unit apartment building in Brooklyn. About a year ago I obtained the NYC phamphlet on emergency planning (72-hour kit, BOB, evacuation plans etc.) and gave one to each of my neighbors. During the course of conversation I ask them if they have done anything advised by the literature. I think only six of the eight apartments even have a flashlight. Pretty discouraging.

I think the quote above illustrates how the solution can be part of the problem. NYC has absolutely fantastic emergency services. I have lived in several large cities, and nowhere have I seen the fire, ems, or police respond better or behave more professionally than in NYC. But that has bred a sort of paternalistic view among my neighbors. They've come to expect fast response times and all the high tech goodies. Isn't going to be that way in the event of a hurricane or other large-scale disaster.

The city has made an effort to improve preparedness. I see billboards, and it is actively promoting National Preparedness Month (http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/html/pr/08_09_04_npm_kickoff.shtml) Don't know how effective it has been.

I am fairly proud of my local Red Cross. At every recent training session I have attended, they have stressed personal preparedness as a precondition to helping others. The government liasion said it best, he said if your family isn't safe and taken care of, you can't function here. If you don't have a go-kit in your car, you can't function very effectively for us. And I also like how we have pre-positioned relief supplies around the County, rather than centralizing them in one warehouse somewhere. From floods or earthquakes, the Seattle area will be broken into virtual islands of habitation, all of which will require some help to come to them. If our volunteers are naturally dispersed, they can get to the supplies and set up shelters, start feeding programs etc.

The 3 Days 3 Ways message is still prevalent in King County, which may help but will be insufficient for a bad disaster. King Co EM realizes this, but I get the idea that higher ups can't get past the catchy 3D3W bit and get down to asking folks to be prepared for 5-7 days.

This winter may be an eye opener for many, as a leaky dam that won't hold rainwater may flood the Kent Valley, which hasn't seen a flood in 50 years. Lewis County style floods right here in the big city!

There is always a backlash when a government's advertising schtick is to take care of all the people, all of the time, under all circumstances. It has created an entire country of helpless babies, a country of mental and emotional feebles. We don't have to think about taking care of ourselves, much less actually preparing for or doing it. If the City can't do it, the County will, or the State, or the Feds.

Around here (probably elsewhere, too), the people seem to be sharply divided into two groups: 1) the few to whom it is second nature to keep supplies on hand, and 2) the others, who say they don't have the money to stock up on supplies or think about what to do in an emergency, or to look at their personal situation that maybe should be changed. However, they have two honkin' big 4WD pickups that take a ladder to get into, redecorate their home every few years, own almost every electronic gadget known, set 32" TV sets in front of their house with a sign that says "Free, works fine", and seem to have an endless amount of money to spend on ANYTHING other than emergency preparation.

My neighborhood is like this. Of the people I know around here (quite a few due to the neighborhood drug problem a few years ago), I would guess that maybe four homes on this street are prepared for at least a week of 'camping' in their homes with what they have on hand. The rest will be waiting for helicopters to deliver basic supplies or begging from the neighbors.

Do any of you remember the twit-on-the-street who was interviewed in NYC after a major power outage who, when asked by the reporter if this event had changed her mind on being prepared for such things, said something like, "No, because preparing for it is like admitting it will happen again".

And that's how America is these days. And it really has to change.

Good article, Marty!

Why have you assumed that it is the Government that has turned everyone into a gibbering unprepared bunch of imbeciles? Surely the success of the free market economy is just as much to blame. An example would be that stocks of food and household supplies in the supermarket, all of which are run by private industry has shown the way to everyone that there will never be shortages. Why learn to cook your own food when a convenience restaurant is just a short drive away in the SUV powered by that products of those privately owned petroleum corporations. Why learn to grow your own food when the international free market is so successful at providing 3rd world produce at incredibly low prices. It might be fair to hold the governmental agencies to account when they don't deliver in an emergency but blaming them for the lack of preparedness of individuals who behave like rabbits in the headlights of a consumerist society is slightly unfair.

There might even come the day when if the lights go out, the private industry suppliers may just decide its not worth their profit sheet to put the lights back on.

We're on the edge of political here...but...here I go (and I should know better)

I agree with you. Strongly.

But we can't talk about WHY here...just what.

So WHAT can we do to get 96 hour readiness to 70% of the population? That's a goal.

The way I figure it, I shouldn't be expecting some big governmental agency to be here right after an emergency fully prepared to grant my every wish/need/desire.

I don't even expect local government to be able to handle a major catastrophe.

I'm prepared to bug in for a couple/three weeks easy. Probably well over a month if we're smart. Bugging out, depending on the amount of warning we get, 5 days minimum... more than enough time to un*ss the AO and get to the in-laws. More than a few hours and we are again up the month time frame easy.

IMHO, the vast majority of people are unprepared for anything out of the ordinary. The power goes off for a few hours and people freak. A blizzard is forecast (ok, up to a foot of snow, but come on, it's the South) and we see people stocking up - on chips, beer and smokes. Totally without clue one.

I have the means, the training and the mindset to get through a lot of things. If Uncle comes along with some help, fine. If not, oh well, that's ok too. And all those "grasshoppers" will have to find out the hard way I guess.

Thankfully I and many of my neighbors have been able to stock up on all sorts of supplies purchased from private industry sources such as Walmart, Sam's Club, Kroger's etc...

I think we'd have a much harder time trying to grow or build these supplies by ourselves or buy it all from the limited stuff available from farmer's market (and I'm unaware of any hand-made solar cells, gardening tools, or coolers available nearby).

I guess the only other alternative would be for the government to supply me and my neighbors with all that stuff...but isn't this thread against that?

Sometimes I get confused...

-Blast

That's the big fear in my industry right now. Excessive taxation of non-nationalized oil companies will make it impossible for them to sell enough fuel to meet the demand and still pay thier bills. If that happens they'll just close up shop and sell their equipment and leases to the Saudi, Chinese, Mexican, and assorted South American government-owned oil companies. Having dealt with these assorted government oil companies and seen first-hand their corruption, waste, and bean-counting over engineering, I'd be VERY concerned if this happened. But hopefully someone nearby will be hand-making superpowerful solar cells by then.

Martin, with your deep knowledge and contacts can you give us a little bit of insight into what other companies might also pack up and close shop?

-Blast

All our local grocery stores have prepackaged "food bank" bags of goods. You pay an extra $5 and the store donates one of the bags to a local food bank. I've peaked in the bags and estimate the cost of those groceries to be somewhere $6-$8 dollars. It's mainly rice, beans, a few cans of fruit, soup, tuna...stuff like that.

I wonder if stores could be convinced to offer pre-packaged emergency food bags? Fill them with the same stuff and charge the actual cost. Place them on an endcap with big signs and I bet people would start buying them. Stick a stand of www.ready.gov or Zombie Squad brochures by it to help people learn. Next endcap over put batteries, radios and flashlights.

I think making people realize preparedness can be achieved both EASILY and CHEAPLY might help more people come around, especially if they see other non-crazy people buying the stuff.

-Blast

I too am confused by AFLM's post. Yes, so far private business has been successful in keeping store shelves stocked during good times, but as many have seen, those shelves are emptied when a storm approaches and will stay barren until trucks can start delivering the goods after the storm is done, roads are cleared and power is restored. Those who have stockpiled our supplies ahead of time from sources such as Wal-Mart, Cost-Co, Sam's, et al, might look to top-off our supplies, but in general we are good to go without last minute shopping. Private store owners do not get credit for making folks store goods ahead of time.

It's just human nature that some of us have experiences that tell us to stockpile during good times and others have experiences that tell them that in time of need, somebody will arrive with what they need, that's the reason they pay taxes. That's not the fault of the store owners. Private store owners should not get blamed for making folks myopic and dependent on outside aid.

The government didn't turn citizens into this, the gov't just reinforced the trait with programs to help survivors get back on their feet. Who knows when it first happened? Regardless, someone took notes and stocked less hoping the gov't would help next time too. With each emergency the gov't through FEMA slowly won over lots of folks to not stockpiling and simply waiting for the helping hand that always shows up with food, water and plywood. Now when FEMA always shows up at these events and provides their "stuff" -- people complain they weren't there soon enough and didn't bring the right stuff when they did arrive. Where's the ice? I need a generator. . . and gas. It's all free right?

The county has been using Plan 9 to introduce emergency preparation to the general public through presentations, local cable announcements and has a web page for the Frederick County Division of Emergency Management and provides a local emergency preparation guide.

(Martin, if you want I can forward you an e-mail that has the Plan 9 Powerpoint and poster)

Pete

Perhaps FEMA needs a more realistic updated Tagline on their publications and then start from there.

Something like;



FEMA Will be there for You.

Well we might be, but you know it depends on how bad it gets, but you can be sure we'll at least try our best from the resources that are available.


rather than just 'FEMA Prepared Responsive Committed'

It is something of a paradox. When times are prosperous, people tend to lose the ability to, say, grow their own food. When times are hard, people learn to be more self sufficent, but then you die of a simple infection because all the doctors are out in the garden.

Have many of you seen the Seseme Street emergency preparedness commercials? There's three or four of them with assorted muppets taking about what should be in an emergency kit, preparing a family emergency plan, and the like. They are on youtube somewhere, but I can't access it from work.

The next issue of Popular Mechanics is all about emergency preparedness and we've all noted an increase is news/magazine articles on the subject.

I'm in contact with edible wild plant teaches nationwide and we've all seen a huge jump in demand for our classes. I always ask my students why they are taking the class and 80% of them answer they are there because they are afraid of what's happening in the world and want to be prepared.

Here at work people who used to laugh at stuff have now been coming to me for advice on flashlights, radios, generators, etc...

So, I think the number of prepared people is currently climbing. There's always going to be some who refuse to take that sort of responsibility.

As I said earlier the trick is to convince people it's cheap, easy, and all the cool people are doing it. Maybe "People" magazine needs to do an article on the emergency gear of the stars or Oprah needs to talk about her collection of ham radios and shotguns...

Perhaps if we starting contacting tv producers and magazine editors to request more such shows/articles would help.

-Blast

Grover and Rosita

Only one I could find.

I think I like him, particularly the things I'm hearing about him in regards to volunteer responses and getting people to look honestly at what they are facing.

I've been thinking in terms of a 100hr kit (96, close enough) and 200 hour stocks for years. I'd love to say I've got 250 hours of fuel and water, but I don't. At least I don't think I do.

There's a long and a short version of this one plus one about why you should know your full name and the names of your parents.

They also have them in Spanish.

-Blast

Personally I think that people don't recognize the difference between "community Emergencies" and "Personal Emergencies." When you have a medical or rescue need, well that is when the Fire/EMS/Police come rushing to your aid. The problem is that most people don't seem to realize that when a true disaster occurs that those that would come to there rescue are now busy rescuing themselves and there families.

The general public have been told, everything will be handy for you no matter where you go. Just look at the number of people that turn to those of us on this list when there is a need for a knife to cut open something, or a multi tool when needed. Does the general public carry knives (for non violent purposes) and multi tools. I look at peoples pockets (looking for the tell tail clip for knives) and waists (admittedly more at girls waists,, but I digress) and rarely do I see multitools and simple easy to carry devices that show a sign of self reliance.

As I read the original posting I interpreted the statement of, considering the general public as a resource for rescue, as things like CERT (Community Emergency Response Team.) Part of our job as CERT members is to not only help when distaste strikes, but to also spread the word of preparedness.

The truth is that we here spreading the word and slowly helping those around us realize that they need to be prepaid, and volunteering (if that is your thing) on things like CERT and the such that is the best we can do.

Cause standing on a soap box and screaming "get prepared" gets you put in a fun room with happy medication.. Or that is at least how people perceive you. Thos I must admit this site and those on this site have come a long way in helping the general population realize that being prepared and self reliant is no longer just for those "survivalist nuts" but rather the actions of very sane, very rational people who realize that there are times when the best person to rely on for help is yourself and your preparations. Now please,, no comments on anyone’s sanity,

Eric

Sesame Street has a preparedness site you can get to via ready.gov.

Here's the direct link to the " Sesame Street Let's Get Ready" site where you can see many of the full preparedness videos.

If only everybody was as prepared as Grover believes.

Read the whole article. Not only is the new FEMA director EXPECTING you to have an emergency plan, he's tweaked his own staff that didn't have a plan.

The new FEMA is the backstop, not the leading edge. The new FEMA expects YOU yes YOU to be responsible for the beginning, and they will be coming later to help with longer-term support stuff.

I like the approach, I like the attitude (I loved the part where he comes in with a drill scenario he made up and he watches the screwups as they scramble to make it all happen).

anyway, please read the article. I think you'll see you have more in common with the FEMA director than you think.

Heat isn't the problem - I got lots of blankets. Cooling is the hard problem to solve.

I've got 30 days "lifeboat" food & water in the house aside from whatever normal food I have. There are 7 days of the same in a crate in the back of the car - with other emergency gear - and 2 days in the driver's door storage (and another 2 days in the passenger's door).

I've been without electricity for weeks three times after hurricanes so that's doable.

I have a lot of work to do, but I think I'm at the point where in a community disaster I can wave off responders for a couple of weeks with "no I'm not having fun but I'll live - check the lady next door".

My "personal disaster" approach is a little different since I'm in a wheelchair and live alone. I place greater emphasis on signaling and waiting for a responder than most people should.

PS. the car kit isn't a BoB but rather a reduced version of the home survival-in-place kit. The point is that I spend a lot of hours each week away from home and I want the bare essentials with me.

Martin:
after reading your post it got me to thinking. I as many on this forum went down to New Orleans to help. (actually we were stationed in Baton Rouge and flew down New Orleans several times a day) The very first thing I notice was the utter failure of the local services, and the county and state wasn't much better.

Today I tryed to find out where I stood if my neighbors and my self need any help. We stand alone I live in a small city (2years as a city) and as I found out today not much has been done, There is a county plan and a staste plan but there is not as of yet a city plan. I am good for at least a week plus on food and I have a 1500 gal pool in the back yard and one more pool in the neighborhood. I went to Wal Mart and bought and replaced all my back yard lights with solor lights(about $3.00 ea.) so now I have food,water and light.
I have a lot of camping gear so shelter and cooking is taken care of, but if it is a long duration problem or I have to bug out we go to plan #2. We have several older women (older than me anyway) that have lost there mates and will need help, but we also have a lot of young strong males to take care of that problem. We have reglar block meeting and I try to get them to be prepared and I think a little has sunk in but only the next problem will tell. As far as the community goes as I stated before WE stand alone.

Plan #2
I have two ways out of my area, I know how to get around the bridges if they are down. And I can get water out of the San Diego river (1.2 Miles.) I also have people I know in each of the directions I would be going and I will have enought stuff so as not to be a burden on them, and may be of some help to them.

To answer your last question "could I stay in my house for 5 days " you bet, and take care of my neighbors also.

What about having a 'Preparedness Block BBQ' in your neighborhood and invite everyone?

How to cook without electricity, how to cool without electricity, examples of GetHome kits, some printed lists of stuff (food, first aid, water, etc).

I think that the basic problem is that many people aren't really used to thinking for themselves very much. Maybe get them started?

Sue

We had one of those! Called it hurricane Ike...
-Blast

Um, so how does a 4-day plan differ from a 3-day plan? Is it more than an extra day's supplies?

That's the beauty, it's not that much different. Once you have a 72 hour kit, shifting to a 96 or longer kit is just a little more food, water and storage.

blast:
Did you have a problem with "Rita"?

Yes...after getting all ready for her she swung north too early and missed us.

The main issue we had with Rita was the amazing traffic jams that kept us trapped in our subdivision and the resulting trash left behind by all the evacuees.

Rita blog post #1
Rita blog post #2
Rita blog post #3
Rita blog post #4
Rita blog post #5 (after action report)

-Blast

I put my BOB together to last me one week, whether bugging in or out. For bugging in, the BOB would be the last resort though, as I've been putting aside supplies for longer periods here in the house.

I've been working on stockpiling Campbell's Chunky soups (one can is definitely a filling meal for one person, vegetables, meat and all), Ramen noodles, and the $.68 gallon jugs of drinking water from Wal-Mart.

My goal I'm shooting for right now is to have one month of food and water set aside. Every payday I stop into Wal-Mart and pick up another 4+ gallons of water, maybe another 4+ cans of soup, and maybe another flat of Ramen noodles.

Recommendation: Buy more of what you already eat on the day-day, week-in/week-out basis -- eat one, buy two to replace it, eat two, buy four. . . Campbell's Chunky soups and Ramen noodles are good survival food, but you can do better and have more variety.

Those were my primary choices as I actually love eating them. A lot of the other stuff I eat requires cooking in an oven also, whereas I can make ramen over any kind of heat source that will boil water. And I can eat the Chunky soup cold if need be, since it's pre-cooked.

Once I have a decent enough supply of the soups, ramen and water, I'm going to start working on other items to go with them.

Dinty Moore Beef Stew.

If it doesn't have a thumbprint, don't eat it.

Words to live by . . . .

Yes you should know better. I strongly disagree with both of you. Are you going to lock this thread also, now that someone disagrees with you?

I find this forum to be increasingly useless as time goes on. Off to greener pastures.

Now kids. Play nice. We can all disagree as to whether the poor response to Katrina was the result of mistakes and poor planning or a racial/political/class conspiracy. The point I think Martin (and the head of FEMA) is trying to make is that the person primarily responsible for taking care of you is you. Especially in the short run, where the authorities may be overwhelmed until reinfocements arive.

FEMA is working from the top down with programs shuch as the National Incident Management System, which provides a standardized system that allows different agencies and jurisdictions to coordinate responses to a wide range of incidents.

We as interested practitioners of preparednass can be working from the bottom up, starting with being prepared ourselves, then graduating to helping our neighbors prepare. Its obvious from this thread that some localities are better prepared than others, just like during Katrina. So there is still a lot of work to do. More in some places than others.

I found the article refreshing. The dude-in-charge puts it to his folks to be an example. That is great. I liken it to the fire fighters urging everyone to have smoke detectors and fire extinguishers just like they do. I also like the view being taken here stating we need to work from the bottom up. It really boils down to what I learned in the military: If it is your responsibility, take care if it. This works all the way up and down the chain of command. If people understand what they are responsible for things will go more smoothly. Yes, interaction/intervention is required if there is a deficiency somewhere. The interaction does not need to be adversarial, just honest,level-headed and professional.

There are many reasons why people do not prepare. A short list of the most common reasons:
- Risk perspective (People think its not going to happen)
- "unrealistic optimism" ("it won't happen to me")
- (lack) of trust (not trusting government)
- Personal experience ("nothing happened last time")
- Attachment to the community
- Personal responsibilities
- Denial behavior (people unable to handle psychological, avoid the subject all together)
- Not knowing what to prepare for.

Actual preparedness education has very little effect. This makes it very hard for any organisation to change human behavior. So i agree with the guy on what the ideal world would be. But how?

This isn't a very developed thought - but the preparedness on this site didn't spring from no where. Most of us had an Aha! moment after a storm, fire or accident. Some of us picked it up in the military, or in training for specialized jobs (EMT, firefighter, oil field worker) where from the first day we got it. Granted a fair number of us were raised in a preparedness environment, which if everyone still came from such a place the situation might be different. Many folks though have their scariest preparedness moments behind the wheel along I-405 every morning - where's my coffee, calling the office on my cell phone, better turn up the heat or AC some more. All while driving along at 45 mph 20 feet behind the next Chevy Tahoe, no concept of the everyday proximity of death and danger outside their moving door. You want to foster the Aha! moment in people who otherwise won't get it - because if they don't have a moment of clarity, when disaster strikes they will be waiting for the chow line to form on the street corner, or to pillage their neighbor's supplies.

So start with something small, and immediate - hurricane season, tornado alley for some, winter storms and floods in the North. The weather, as bad as it can get. Most people get that. If its a regular event, more people will get ready, or at least readier than they were.

This site is preparedness education in action. Encourage others to vist and consider joining. At least they may recall it as a resource.

Well it was mine conclusion after doing a literature review of over 15 international scientific research papers. (very boring to read...) Getting people in that "aha" moment is the hard part. Once people "get it", than it becomes much easier.

Campaigns to educate citizens can actually be counterproductive. Many people will trust the government and its message less, when they think the government exaggerate the danger (they think of secret agendas, etc). Some people will not prepare because they think the government is doing enough, because of the campaigns. But obviously no education won't work either. It's a much harder issue than most people think. Many studies (british, swedisch, dutch) have show very little or a reduction of prepardness due to due to goverment prepardness campaigns. (Does not have to mean it applies to other countries) So what would a effective meassure? I haven't found any really effective onces. (bad) Personal experians with disasters seems to be the most effective, but should rescue personal stand on the side during a emergency to "teach citizens a lesson"? Not a likely scenario...

I have worked with the emergency communication department of the Dutch ministry of internal affairs and also the emergency communication people for a "safety region". Plenty of people giving the emergency preparedness information, are them self not prepared. The percentage is lower than the public, though. This is also reflected by many emergency workers (fire, medical, law enforcement) in mine country.

Reward preparedness with discounts on licenses and fees for using the outdoors, launch ramps, and other public facilities.

The whole preparedness thing is often too much for many people to handle. Even if they have a bit of interest, it appears too complicated. And if they google 'survival', they get lots of strange stuff with weird people: knife people, gun people, the Burt Gummer overkill effect. To them, it looks scary. People don't usually embrace scary.

If you want to get your point across to someone, try to make it ONE point, not fifty. And make it personal to them, a need that they can understand. Once they can see the need and prepare for it, they can take one more step and deal with something else.

K.I.S.S.

Another problem to overcome with some people is what I call the "gambler mentality" - someone into behavioral psychology might know the right name.

The gambler will lock onto a reward or favorable outcome and will ignore everything that doesn't lead to the reward, even if the reward is not the most likely outcome. Vegas slot machines are the obvious example but there are plenty more in the way people leveraged up to buy houses before the recession etc, not to mention the ways that financial institutions managed their risk portfolios prior until last year. As long as the reward is achievable it overshadows all other outcomes, however probable.

My guess is that preparedness in general faces at least a mild form of this in most people: it requires some time and a little money, and most people can't see "being prepared" as a reward, just as an expense. It's that reward/expense perception that's hard to change and until you do there's a bit of the gambler mentality involved.

first issue with this idea, is the limit target group. Preparedness should be a aimed at all citizens of a country, not just outdoor people. (outdoor people also seems to be better prepared...)So rewards should be aimed for the general public.

Any rewarding system would require the government to:
- Quantify "preparedness". They could make a list of essential equipment (although people are different, so will there equipment be), but what about plans and mental preparedness?
- Inspect people being "prepared", before giving a reward. (if not, it would be open to fraud)
- Checking/Maintain people's "preparedness", by inspecting people's preparedness every X year. If not, than there would be no system to maintain the level of preparedness.
- Funds to pay for the system and the rewards (read: taxpayer)
- Getting multiple government levels to work with each other. (read: time consuming)

that the list i can list before having morning coffee. Besides rewards as a tool has shown mixed results. Rewards generally causes people to do things for the reward itself, not the thing we want them to do (being prepared). So it is highly likely than some people would do the minimum to get the reward and not actually prepared



Good point Susan, but that is something what is known. That's why the government is educating people for the most likely events, telling people what effect a disaster can have on them and what they can do. It does not seem to be really effective. A problem with such a approach is that, it is not always possible to know what effect a disaster can have and what people can really do to protect them self. So it get impersonal rather quickly.

I'm just pointing out that is really isn't that easy for a goverment to get people to prepare. It's easy to come up with a plan, but turning a plan in to a workable and effective solution is a lot harder than most people think. It is hard enough to get family and friend to prepare, now think of a entire country on a limited budget...

I think you bring up an interesting problem PC2K.
I find a lot of people think about emergency preparations in terms of the whole "End Of The World As We Know It" situation.
But real world emergencies are more likely to be accidents that result from a chain of small events.

I try to get people to think about being prepared for the little emergencies.
Stuff like getting a bad cut at work, having a flat tire on a seldom traveled road, and all that kind of stuff.
It seems like a good place to start people off and if you can get the attitude about being prepared at that level it becomes easy to expand it to cover having a weeks groceries, water and a way to cook food in case the power goes out and other preparations for larger emergencies.

One thing I have seen are schools getting the children to do inventories on their own homes. They look for things like escape routes if there is a fire, muster points where they go to if they have to evacuate, first aid kits, first aid training.
The school also taught them how to do a hazard assessment as part of it.
The odd part of doing this was that the parents learned from their children because it was a homework assignment the children needed help with to complete.

The whole "I don't trust the government" aspect of public preparedness is interesting, I'm catching some of that right now as I talk to groups about preparing for possible Howard Hansen dam floods this winter, (and the next 3-5 yrs). We are trying to prepare people for flooding in an area that hasn't experienced any in modern memory (since the 50s) - 2-10 feet through a valley with alot of people, critical infrastructure and industrial that wasn't there in the last flood. It's a simple equation, a matter of how much water a dam can hold, a matter of basic hydraulics - if it rains enough the rain will come downstream and flood xx hectares to yy depth. But the response of some (not all) is one of suspicion - that County bureaucrats are using the problems with Howard Hansen for their own ends - for money, for control of the population, but ultimately for a very illogical messing up society in a very significant way. I would consider these people to be raving space loons if it wasn't part of my responsibility to disavow them of their ideas, and get them to prepare themselves and their families for moving out of the way of all that water. Otherwise, they may be coming to the Red Cross, and expecting food and shelter. In the end all I can do is warn them to prepare, and those that listen should have a bed of their own ready for their kids above the floodline, those that won't will have a tougher time. Its difficult to get through to people so mad at their government that they won't act to help themselves.

I think this is a good point. If someone were to look at where I am now in terms of preparedness and didn't know the individual steps I took to get here, I could easily imagine it would appear to be a near Herculean feat not to mention a ridiculously expensive endeavor. And even though most people suggest taking small steps, if the steps aren't laid out it can appear to be too much of a task.

I'm not sure if it's the official psychosocial title, but in Biology classes this tended to fall under Game Theory. Which I was kinda/sorta lost in.

That's the same scenario as myself and a lot of my friend's situation with our offroad vehicles. People think we have sunk a lot of money into building them, when most of the stuff was done over time with free or cheap parts.

My BOB and home emergency supplies are getting the same way. Add one thing here and there and it adds up over time.

My roommate was looking at what is in my ditch kit the other night (had it spread out on the living room table), and she asked me how much it would had cost. Couldn't tell her, but I still don't think she believes me that I started building that kit when I was 10 and won't stop until a week after I'm dead.

But I also wouldn't bring one of my hardcore "survival machine" kits to a speech- I'd bring my "plague box" with it's ten days of food, and augment it with my big blue water container, a bottle of bleach, and some batteries and fire starting stuff. That totals less than $80 for one person. About $110 if you add Coleman camp stove from Wallyworld, a couple of fuel canisters, a 1.7L kitchen storage bin and a pair of cheap pliers (also all from Wallyworld). That right there is a good start for a disaster box.

We can do this for a reasonable cost, then us hardcore guys start refining, upgrading and expanding.

"It is hard enough to get family and friend to prepare, now think of a entire country on a limited budget..."

Especially after so many years of being patted on the head and being told that they would be taken care of by the government, and then being told to get out of the way because they're useless, by local emergency personnel.

The rules are being changed, and they require thought, planning and preparation by people who aren't currently mentally or emotionally up to it.

And no one is going to get entire masses of people off their butts to get prepared, it's still convincing people one at a time. You just can't expect miracles.

Try to make it fun, interesting and possible, and more people will get into it. Drag the string and the kitten will follow.

Sue