It's Good to Have A Plan

So, yesterday, when the WHO went to level 5, I flipped through the existing township emergency plan to see what a "Pandemic" event plan would entail.

As I suspected, it was a little more complicated than my original plan (get more beer, cigars and ammo) but not much so.

But what was even better was an exchange of email with my operations group at work - I asked them if they had any thoughts on what to do since NYC is turning into the Swine Flu capital of America - and they said that they were "already using our existing plan". Oh how I smiled. They already have a plan for remote access for those who don't work from home normally, they have a communications plan to do a mass notify in case we need to all stay home...it was all set.

Makes me glad to work here not somewhere else.

Honestly, I think this swine flu is WAY overblown. WHO reports 200-300,000 deaths a year from flu, mostly the infirm (elderly, young children, compromised immune systems). Its good to have a plan, for sure-but, I think this is a chicken little story myself.

I'd say what I really think but that would have political overtones so. . . yeah, the media has given this flu some serious legs for now. By mid-May we'll be thinking back and wondering what became of the swine flu.

It may seem that way now, sort of the calm before the storm. The WHO is an extremely conservative organisation and statements such as 'All of humanity under threat' should make everyone prepare for the worst.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/swine-...-WHO-warns.html

I have now concluded that that the WHO now have a reasonably good idea of the mortality rate, this being the critical number in their projected modelling for the mass casualty projections, from the initial Mexico outbreak.


Example USA - Population 300 Million. Attack Rate (first wave, worst case scenario) 50% of populus infected = Numbers of potentiall infections = 150 Million

Now multiply the Number of infections by the mortality rate

1% mortality = 1.5 Million deaths
2% mortality = 3 Million deaths

etc, etc

10% mortality = 15 Million deaths

All these deaths occurring within a 3-4 (probably a little longer within the US due to greater geographical dispersion) month period starting now.

As for Governmental planning the UK has the best plan in the world and the means to implement its plan because of a unified National Health Service management system. By reading carefully through this document you soon begin to realise there is no plan except to just suck it up and see and hope for the best.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/19_10_05_bird_flu.pdf

Sometimes survival is just means being a head of the game before the mass panic ensues.

While we're making plans it might be good to keep it in perspective.

Now they closed an entire school district in Texas? Wow, where do all these students go for the next 10 days? In most households where no adult is normally home, that's a real problem to deal with on a moment's notice. That's certainly something to plan ahead for, and I think it will be quite common throughout the country in the coming weeks unless the flu suddenly stops dead in its tracks. I mean, just one suspected case can shut down a school, so it doesn't take much to do it.

So, if your child's school or daycare shuts down for 10 days (or longer, depending on how things develop), think about what to do with them.

They were talking about flu on the news yesterday (shocking) and some pundit or another was complaining that the NYC public schools should really be closed to contain the flu.

I recall reading somewhere that on days that the public schools are closed without warning (snow days, etc.) the economic output of the cty falls by some rediculously high number, like 30% (no, I do not have a source, so don't quote the number, but it is high). All the people who normally have elementary school age kids at school have to scramble for childcare, and many wind up not being able to go to work.

In a pandemic situation, this is the best case scenario. More likely is that after a day or two people are no longer able to miss work, and all the neighborhood kids get left with the one stay-at-home parent on the block, which completely defeats the purpose of closing the schools in the first place.

I'm not saying in won't, or shouldn't happen, but it's not a decision that will be taken lightly. I think things will have to get much worse before the school system here gets (or even should get) shut down.

I have to agree. At this point in time, I think it's overblown as well. I'm a nursing student and I was going over the posted protocols at the hospital I'm doing my rotations. We have had no infected patients as of yet. However, it was posted that in the event of an infected patient, we are to put the patient in a negative pressure room, gown, glove and mask in order to provide patient care. In addition, if there is the possibilty of aerosol droplets, add to that a positive pressure hood. Sounds to me like a combination of MRSA and TB precautions. All this for a flu that AT THIS TIME doesn't appear to be as bad as the seasonal flu.

Please, please, please, don't read into my post that I'm taking this lightly. I'm watching things as carefully as I can along with making sure my preps are in place. I just think that maybe there is some media hype going on. Let's face it .... it sells papers. Don Henley's "Dirty Laundry" is going through my head as I type.

I have a plan

"When in trouble, and in doubt...."

Right now, it's really hard to figure out just how serious it might be. Keeping in mind the SARS and avian flu scare, I'd be inclined to think it's just something blown out of proportion.

But like one of the previous posters said, WHO does NOT issue that kind of statement unless there is a truly credible threat. WHO and governments all over the world realize full well that any warning of a global outbreak is going to seriously affect the economy, which happens to be in a pretty poor state as it is. I suspect the real concern is the virus mutating in some deadlier form. It does seem to have the potential to turn into something a lot nastier.

Maybe it will turn out to be just another false alarm. But there are also some inconsistencies. For one thing, the reported number of new infections is very small. Surprisingly small in fact. Just a few days ago there was talk of about 160 dead in Mexico and several thousand infected. They've reduced those numbers an awful lot since. I don't know about everyone else but to me, all those things together do raise an eyebrow.

Personally, I've not yet taken any drastic measures and don't intend to in the foreseeable future. But if gets any worse, I can see how the flu could have a major impact on our way of life. Especially in regard to travel. My G/F is going abroad for one month, leaving this Monday. Not the best time and I must admit I'm a little worried.

While I hope for the best I'll still watch the news regularly and buy a little extra supplies just in case. YMMV.

Flu, again will normally only kill you if you are feeble, or have a compromised immune system (ok, perhaps overgeneralization, but you get the idea). There are a dozen reports cases in my area, but, honestly, I am not overly concerned. Our sanitation awareness has increased exponentially since 1918, as has our medical fields. Washing your hands is a practice we should ALL get in the habit of doing-this prevents MANY communicable diseases. Clean, running water is abundant & available here in the US, and that alone is a HUGE contributor to our war on viruses.
All that being said, closing a school is simply a panacea. If a kid doesnt go, the parents stay home. IF they get sick, and NO ONE visits them, then, after the incubation period, I would assume that that particular household is safe. Unfortunately, someone may be a carrier before realizing it. Thus, it is spread, unknowingly. And, what if the kids stay home, and no one watches them? Guarantee they go out & play with friends in the same situation. Again, they show no symptoms, think they are fine, and spread it. Closing schools, IMHO, doesnt help anyone.
Now, I am not a health care specialist, I am just generalizing here. I dont know what the lifespan of the virus is outside a host-I do know HOW its spread, and thats about it. I also know that, for me, I will continue to practice good hygeine. There really isnt too much else I can do. I refuse to buy into the apparent panic this is causing.

I've already posted this in another forum, but in defense of a bit of info overload:

All the attention on swine flu is meant (in part) to level out exposures such that our medical infrastructure isn't over run by flu cases. It takes next to nothing to overrun an ER, they typically operate at close to full capacity as it is. It doesn't take fatalities to exceed capacities, just patients. And there are no more hospital beds, because there aren't usually a supply of medical responders to treat them. And should the virus mutate just enough to cause more severe reactions and deaths, the attention is certainly warranted.

Besides, practice makes perfect - what better time to excercise panemdic preparedness than on a non-lethal strain? Soon come on that.

“If we’re accused of doing too much, then fine,” said Mr. Reardon [Snohomish Co WA Public Health, I think]. “But we will never be accused of doing too little. Public health and safety is our Number One priority for our community.”

Mexico sees flu outbreak easing which tells me this "pandemic" was a good test of the system. I'm not sure we passed, just got lucky.

The up side of the SARS scare was that it motivated, forced in some cases, cities and municipalities to formulate plans and create mechanisms for reporting within and coordination of public health systems. Hopefully this round of swine flu will further cement the systems and case a redoubling of efforts to bolster out public health system.

My fear is that if this round of flu fizzles out that in these hard financial times people will see spending on public health as wasted money.

There is always going to be another round of flu, or other disease, coming. What happens if the much deadlier H5N1 bird flu combines with the very communicable but so far mild H1N1 swine flu. we could end up with a virus that spreads like wildfire and kills 60% of the people who get it. A public health system primed to isolate the strain and create of a vaccine, combined with efforts to contain it to buy time, could be our only hope.

Historically public health organizations have saved far more lives than treatment after the fact.

Just an FYI....in regards to Oldsoldier's comments on hand washing.....

A number of us will not be surprised to hear this.....but still, all should be outraged......

I am a medic. Current. I am working in the field as we speak. I can tell you definitively....I have coworkers that absolutely, positively do NOT wash their hands. They have said repeatedly that they do not...will not.....

Yes, I have attempted to convince them of the importance of hand washing....there is no point......to borrow a line from (I believe-Clive Cussler) I've had more productive conversations with fence posts. There is only so much one can say to a rock.

So take it for the information it provides. There are some first responders that have this mentality.....PROTECT YOURSELF.

Every single disaster has one common element:

Your ability to obtain goods and services is interrupted. We live in a Just in Time society. A just in time to say "Oh Feces!". You should be prepared to be self-sufficient for an adequate period. That period depends upon the magnitude and severity of the disaster.

I have been very surprised at the governmental response from the local levels to the Federal levels, including the WHO. It all seems like a massive over reaction to me.

Yes, I think this has been treated as a drill. Soooo convenient for many reasons,,,after the actual flu season is over, IMO.

I'm not so sure governments all over the world would agree to participate in a global drill just like that, especially not during the present economic crisis. *Maybe* the WHO did deliberately overplay the threat to see what kind of response there would be in the event of a more serious outbreak. But it's not just a game. The swine flu has already cost a great deal of money. There's also the psychological impact. I'm sure Mexican tourism will be affected for years to come.

I, for one, would rather see the reaction we got instead of an under reaction. And although the media obviously was fanning the flame, there were plenty of experts on hand who were both clearheaded and professional. As long as they aren't sowing mass panic (like the Media wasn't trying!), it means all resources are called in quickly and the experts get to work immediately.

In fact, some experts think our emergency response was both too slow and the WHO too cautious in raising the level of emergency:
http://blogs.sciencemag.org/scienceinsider/2009/05/exclusive-meet.html

I've read your second sentence a few times, and it's just dripping with subtext. I don't want to get into most of that, but one assumed item I agree upon; there are those who are profiting and will do so in the future(no surprise there). Be that as it may, even a drill now and then tests the machinery, keeps preparedness and the need for infrastructure to handle it in people's minds. No matter what happens, there are those who will attempt to benefit by this, even to the point of contributing to the FUD. It's nothing new, nor something that's likely ever to go away.

And I recall not that long ago, how the government woefully under reacted to another emergency and caught hell for it.