How long do you figure a long time is?

When you are preparing for a natural disaster or large scale emergency how long do you plan on being stuck before help arrives or things get back to normal?

Is it a few days, a few weeks, a few months,a few centuries or is it longer than that?

I would concur with the general 2 to 2 1/2 week timeline. Beyond that, if things are still bad enough that you haven't been able to get relief one way or another, then it is more than just a temporary situation, and time to implement long term (year or more) life changing survival plans.

Really, like dressing for variably cold climates, it is best to go in layers. Acute, short term survival issues are going to differ greatly in how you respond vs. chronic, long term survival needs. I think preparing to respond at a range of conditions is most appropriate, long term being anything that is going to require self sufficiency for more than 3 weeks. By then you should be converting your MO from "what else is in the bag?" to "what's in the pantry?"

A third vote for 2-3 weeks. Hurricane Ike knocked the power out in areas of Houston for that long. Out-of-state repair crews, rescue workers, and aid stations were on the scene in about two days. Basically most of the US would need to be taken out to prevent such massive aid from rolling to the rescue.

-Blast

I think the 2-3 week window sounds like a decent idea, but I'd up it to a month with food and water, as much as I could. I like the idea of a little cushion. Moreover, if things are so bad that it looks like it will take more than 3 weeks, the extra gives you some ability and more time to move.

I would say 2-3 weeks for 'help' of some sort, and potentially hard core "surviving".

But potentially (Katrina anyone??) months of repairing, and living way different than currently... this may be considered "surviving" too, and totally different yet the same .

-Todd

"help arrives" and "back to normal" are complety diffrent things. One of the mayor dangers in mine country is flooding. Help should be arriving in days, but back to normal. Well if the flooding is caused by the rivers; more than a year, before everything is back "normal" again. If the flooding is by the sea, it will take less time, but you will have a lot less time to evacuate. (Days versus hours)

OK, I have to ask.
Why would the damages from the rivers flooding take less time to fix than if the flooding is by the sea?

(edit: And yes, back to normal is much different than help arriving)

I expect "help" to arrive in 3 to 5 days. Then the "scariest phrase in the world" is heard, "I'm from the government and I'm here to help you".

I expect to see "normal" within 3 to 5 months, or up to 5 years, depending on the nature and severity of the occurrance.

The biggest error, as I see it, is to depend on "the gummint gonna take care of me". I trust what I see, know what I can do, am ready to assist others, but I don't care to have to depend on anyone or any other entity

My two limitations are running water and a certain drug called Baclofen, in it's liquid form, along with the means to administer and the computor required to program the pump. I keep a reserve of Baclofen (pill form) on hand to mitigate any lapses of service. I do have a Plan C but that is not a plan that I want to dwell on.

This brings up another set of thoughts that I've been mulling over for awhile. It also deserves a thread of it's own, which I'll start.

I agree that if it goes beyond 2-3 weeks, adjust to long term plans. Be prepared for 2-3 weeks on your own with no resupply (water purification, food, meds).

My sole experience with a natural disaster was a large earthquake in a small central CA town. Water, sewer, and natural gas out, electricity restored in a short time. Many homes knocked flat, or at least off of their foundations, downtown area destroyed. Within hours water buffaloes from a nearby Naval Air Station arrived, within 12 or so hours lots of portapotties (plus many almost immediately from a local business), within 24 hours more canned and bottled water than could be used from a beer brewery in southern CA, and lots of eatables from a variety of sources. Within a few days a huge circus tent, used to feed folks via the Red Cross (one of the few good things I have to say about them). Within a week or so numerous single wide mobile homes from FEMA (one of the few good things I have to say about them also). Within a week or so every natural gas worker PG&E had in the state arrived to completely replace the underground NG lines (in places, the old gas lines were completely rotted away, the gas had been flowing thru holes in the dirt for years. The dirt was so impregnated with gas that it would burn!) I know that this isn't exactly what happened with Katrina and other hurricanes, I guess we were lucky.

Given our lifestyle and the capabilities of our home on wheels, I figure we have a couple weeks worth of water if we watch it, and by tightening our belts a few notches from time to time, probably that much food. After that, we are gonna need some help...

We have always planned for 1 month, due to the potential for a disaster to occur during Winter.

Be prepared for even longer, look at the people who lost everything in a hurricane or tornade and had to relocate becaue there was no home to return to. You have to rent an apartment or hotel or somehting and live there.
Short term can even go a week, we had just moved before hurricane Katrina came through and knocked power lines down in our city. Out old neighborhood was without power for 8 days and this is in columbus OH, quite far from hurricane territory.

It's really a dutch thing. The flooding caused by the sea affects land which is mostly higher than the sea level. So most of the flood water will just run back to sea, naturally. The flooding caused by rivers, will effect land which is deeper than the sea. Which means the dykzones will act like a badtubes. It takes a full day to pump 1 cm...

The dyked areas fill up like bathtubs when the rivers overflow.
OK, I understand.

Thanks.

Look at how your local services have responded in the past. That can help you get somewhat of a benchmark.

How well folks adapt depend on several things:

How well is one prepped:
If you have enough water for a week. Then a week isn't so bad. If you have enough water for a day. A week is way too long...

Previous experience:
Being without power for one day for some of the younglings is a hardship. Those of us who have gone for a week or more, have a different perspective.

Attitude:
A bad attitude makes everything seem longer. Remember the old adage; "time flies when you're having fun".

"..."time flies when you're having fun"..."

Very true. Which makes having something "fun" along all that more important. Books, deck of cards, toys/games for the kids, etc...

Most things? 1-12 hours, 24 at the outside. Storms, powerouts, etc

Thats why I posted a recent storm that caused an 8 day power outage in the major city. Our power company sent help to NA as the storm went across land so when it finally hit here they were short staffed.

Kids like breaking out the camping equipment, hanging lanterns from the ceiling fan in the living room just like they would be from a tent, etc.

Agree with most previous posts, but here is a different take, particularly for those with families.
First 8-12 hours are reality checks and fire drills that impact the first nights comfort.
Second day, a good group attitude makes it a bit of a can do camp out .
The 3rd day, without showers or the once basic, now luxury amenities, is when many best laid plans break down and people start bailing out for relatives or whatever other "greener pastures" might be found. My desire to "hang tough on the home front" might not be the group consensus.
I mention this in that some thought might want to go into pre-planning for splitting up the group into "comfort" vs "securing the home base" efforts. Arguing over this during the event itself might be counter productive. For me, and my family I want some options to choose from.

I guess I agree with the general consensus of 2-3 weeks but there are a lot of modifiers on this that haven't come up yet. I live in the midwest so there are seasonal (and scenario) variations that have to be considered. A severe winter storm that takes out power etc. is different than a severe summer storm that does similar damage.

One example to consider - running a generator for weeks in the winter can be a major effort, especially if the "Alberta clippers" keep pounding the area every couple of days with more ice, snow and cold!! In the summer you can usually run the generator for a while then shutdown a while (unless your sump pump is running flat out to keep the basement dry) but unless your house is designed to be heated without electricity you will need to run it pretty much continuously. Restoration of services / repairs always seem to take a lot longer in the winter too.

Another example - here in the midwest a winter storm might take out your power and isolate you due to snow and ice. A severe thunderstorm / tornado could have the same effect in warmer months (power lines down, trees/debris on the road or the road just plain gone) but adds in the bonus round opportunity of having your home literally blow away. That one last one is basically a call to dig out the credit cards. Luckily tornados have a relatively small footprint so supplies should be available for purchase.

So sometimes long is only a couple of days or hours "on site" and than a shift to more of a transition phase which will vary in length.

- Eric

IMO it goes like this:

I figure three to ten days where I'm entirely isolated and totally dependent on what I have on hand to provide water, food, shelter, medical treatment, transportation and security.

Another ten to thirty days where there are shortages, limitations and interruptions in normal resources availability.

Six months to a year of minor disruptions and adjustments. You never really get back to the way things were. Over time people usually adjust and accommodate the new situation and after a time it becomes the new normal.

> I expect to see "normal" within 3 to 5 months, or up to 5 years, depending
> on the nature and severity of the occurrance.

In the San Francisco Bay Area, if there's a major earthquake, I expect the area will never return to its pre-disaster condition. "Normal" will be the new, post-disaster normal like New Orleans. "Normal" will not be a return to before the quake.

Given that, I expect a rescue in a couple of weeks, but we have food for the two of us for a month.

We also have a problem with prescriptions - I don't have a month's supply and I don't think my wife does either.

As previously mentioned, "help arrives" and "back to normal" are not the same thing, and are usually seperated by several days, or weeks or months, of very stressful times. It's best to be prepared to care for all your needs for as long as possible. The often mentioned "72 hour kit" is a joke in my opinion. You should have a minimum of a week, not just three days. After a major disaster, help realistically won't be there for at least a week. Our "72 hour kit", or BOB, gives us the necessities for a full month. We consider anything up to 90 days to be short term. Over 90 days is long term, and could, and probably will, extend to years after a major natural disaster, before "normal" returns. We have a "BOT", an old fully enclosed trailer with our gear in it for up to six months, if we have to evacuate. We try to avoid leaving, as it greatly reduces our capacity to carry what we need for extended periods of time. If we can stay home, we're good for a couple of years.
Prescription medicines are a concern for many, especially those with chronic health problems or the elderly, like us. That's why we get prescriptions at K-Mart or Walgreens, so se can go to any store in the US and get refills, and we also use on-line services. We feel comfortable with our setup. It has held up through floods in Missouri, tornados in Colorado and a HUGE wildfire here in Arizona. If things go bad for a long time, we just go on with our plan.

Ok, what about folks who's prescriptions are "controlled substances"? DW has said scripts and cannot get more than 30 days supply. Without them she has withdraw symptoms within 24 hours and goes into severe side effects within 48 hours. If the storm hits and she is two days from her next appointment, we have a serious problem.

Any ideas????

My wife has similar prescription issues. My recommendation is to pull a dose or two from each prescription if she can tolerate it and stash them till you have built up a 30 day supply, then be sure and rotate that backup so they don't expire. Sometimes you can talk your doctor into writing a second prescription. They usually aren't sympathetic to the notion of stockpiling, but it doesn't hurt to ask, and if they say no, then back to plan a.

I think for most prescriptions, if you explain you want it as an emergency back-up - a physician will write it for you.

Uh, not always for the scripts she is on. Put mildly, I could lay an entire company of infantry low with 14 days worth of her meds.

Most psychiatrists will not advance script due to dangers and DEA controls.

Ergo, my suggestion to set aside one or two a month. What hardship she would go through for skipping one day would be nothing compared to if she had to do without for an extended period later. You do what you can with what you got.

I'm fortunate in that my Family Physician is completely sympathetic and cooperative to help us insure that we have extra meds to fill a JIT gap in the event of a hurricane, tornado, flooding, etc.

I have scripts for a broad spectrum antibiotic and a decongestant to supplement my onboard/BoB FAK/OTC meds. Before I use either, I call my Dr's office and consult with him concerning my symptoms. If needed, then I start them and sked a follow-up appt with him, for when I return home.

We also have additional supplies of several drugs at home that any disruption could make getting timely refills difficult.

I really do wish missing even one day's dose would not cause issues, but it does. The side effects leave one almost chained to a toilet for 24 hours, not to mention the mood swings.

I have a few doc's in the prepared group that understand, and claim they would fill-in in a pinch. My concern is they and I will not be in the same area.

Well, if you can just get one 30 day supply ahead, you can rotate it so you will always have it. Good luck.

Can't you tell the doc your going on vacation for over a month and need more... ?

Nope, not even close. I might have tried it in the past, and I might have been asked for the travel itinerary.

These aren't your run of the mill scripts. They have even turned heads crossing the border into Canada, Mexico and the Cayman Islands.

To give you an idea, the monthly bill NOT covered by insurance is approximately $3000.00. We actually keep them in a safe in the master closet. That way if sons#1&2 have friends over, we don't worry about them getting into them.

That is an idea. All but one are "normal" in size. The one that is really strong is absolutely tiny, I mean miniscule in size and is only 3mg. I accidentally got one mixed in with my meds one time and the damn thing knocked my butt OUT in about 20 min.

We were on a one day motorcycle trip. To save room, I put all our meds into the same small container. That night I took my medication first. About 5 min later DW asked "have you taken your medication?". "Yes dear." "Well you got one of mine, and you better go pee and get in the bed fast, cause you are about to be stoned out of your mind." "I do kkkkiinnndaaa feeellllmff ffuunnbbby."


I slept on the floor that night. seems the hotel didn't have enough manpower to lift 240lbs into the bed. Good thing I always carry extra meds for her. I got one by accident, she took one that night, and one the next night because I still didn't feel right and wasn't riding the bike back like that.

Evidently having no acquired resistance to the medication tends to qualify one as an instant light weight.

After Hurricane Iniki, I decided 30 days was as reasonable a time as I could make space for.

Though you may meet the same resistance with your wife's doctor, docs will sometimes have samples that they can give out. While not a 30 day supply, it might give you some cushion. My DGF has asked for and received them because her insurance company would not immediately refill a prescription.

Another thought is many insurance companies offer through-the-mail prescriptions for 90 days. This supposedly saves everyone money. The insurance company pays less for the drugs and you pay the same co-pay but only once every 90 days. At least this way, your average supply would be around 45 days instead of 15.

I am not even going to try guessing.
I have a brother with a real bad back.
I have been on serious painkillers a few times but when I read my younger brother's prescriptions I just shudder.
I showed him how to grow poppies 5 years ago and explained to him how to make tea.
It is not anywhere near what he should have available, but would likely help a bit if he was without supplies.

Hey Desperado,
Sounds like you're in a harsh situation.
Keep fighting the good fight.
Doug

It's just one of those things.

I had an in-depth conversation with her doc and one of the doc's I built a house for last night. The result of which is a new script available to me at Walgreen's on a moments notice via phone call.

One of the problems with some of these medications is the script is invalid if not filled within 5 or 7 days. I keep a listing of all her scripts ready, incase we are separated from her medication. I can, as a last resort, take her and the list to an ER and try to get help that way. Most doctors see the med list, hear her history and help right away. It just gets expensive and wastes ER resources.

Thanks for the ideas.

For me it's weeks to months, but to be honest I mostly do what's convenient however long that gives me. I don't lie awake at night worrying about it.

For example, I have a stockpile of tinned carrots and tinned sweetcorn, and I have 3 times as much of the latter as the former because the local supermarket sells it in packs of 3 which are more convenient for storing and rotating. I have a certain amount of space available and it all gets filled up. I keep less flour now than I used to, partly because I found I wasn't using it quickly enough and it wasn't producing very good bread. I keep roughly a year's supply of coal (at normal usage rates) because that's how much space I have to stack it in.

I do think that 2 weeks is a good minimum to aim for. As I live alone and have no dependants (other than a cat, who frankly can fend for herself if it ever comes to it), it's an easy target to hit. I think I have food for around 3 months, but realistically I expect to be sharing with less prepared neighbours so I've no idea how long it will really last. No plan survives first contact with the enemy.

Can she go to mail order meds? We take a bunch of pills daily (seems like more every year), we get a 90 day supply by mail. The refill notice comes early enough that I can usually get a refill while I have a week or more on hand. I have been doing that long enough that I now have 'bout an extra 90 day supply on hand, so if something happens as refill time approaches, I am still good to go. Or, you might sit down with the dr, explain your concerns, and get some extras thru him/her.

Last thought, could you go to Mexico and get some there? I know a lot of people, without med insurance, who run across the border to get their meds. Most are not even checked when they cross back...

For me, a long time is:

* The amount of time between emptying my last beer and the bartender bringing me the next
* Waiting for the old lady in front of me at the grocery store to buy $200 in lottery tickets when all I am buying is a can of soda
* The amount of time until my next vacation

In all seriousness, 2-3 weeks for me, although I am prepped for quite a bit longer. I have enough food/water/firewood for about 6 months if I bug in.