New report on solar storms

Perfect Space Storm Could be Catastrophic on Earth, Study Concludes

"Modern power grids are so interconnected that a big space storm -- the type expected to occur about once a century -- could cause a cascade of failures that would sweep across the United States, cutting power to 130 million people or more in this country alone, the new report concludes."

The fun part is their predicition that solar storm activity will peak in 2012.

-Blast

Right when we will have global flooding, collide with Nibaru and have no power to see it coming.... awesome!!

So we have 3 years to prepare :-P

after the grid went down in Quebec in the last big solar storm some years ago new equipment has been added to prevent and contain any overloads. also new satelites are now watching solar activity and would provide a warning of a major storm.i check in on the web sites for those satelites at Space Weather.Com to see what the chance of having a good display of the Northern Lights will be when i'm up north canoeing..

Maybe this is the "Something big" I keep feeling is going to happen. That would make me the solar equivalent one of those little lizards that freak out before an earthquake.

So what I don't get is, if the wires are insulated to help prevent loss of electricity/protection (etc)... what doesnt't that insulate from EM storms? Or, is it just not think enough for the magnitude of the event?

AFAIK the lines are NOT insulated.

The lines ARE NOT insulated unless it is the actual feed into a structure from the pole, or underground. That is why there are insulators on the poles and towers.

I tell you what. I am boycotting the Sun. It does nothing but try to kill us.

This is one of the reasons that I am so concerned about an EMP effect/incident in this country.

P.S. All of you "tin foil hat wearers" need to remove your hats before a major solar storm hits or else your brains will become zombie-ized and those fried brains are considered a delicacy by 57 different alien species!!!

To expand on earlier posts, I actually don’t think it even matters if the lines are insulated or not. Insulation on wires is solely to prevent the electricity in the wire from diverting into another conductive object (short circuit) if that object touches the wire. In geomagnetic storms, physical contact is not a factor, so physical insulation is moot. The shifting magnetic fields of a geomagnetic storm induce currents in electrical lines whether they are physically insulated or not, much the same way a spinning magnet can induce current in a coil of wire whether it is insulated or not.

check YouTube--Mega Science,Cosmic Storms..i watched this last nite.otherwise i would not have anything to say on the subject--
funny stuff on guys trying to start cars at 12 below--grinddddd-pop pop pop..hit it again Frank..blam--blam--grinddd
the web is such a great tool------

I worry about electronic safes and getting in them after an EMP

Discovery Channel's "Perfect Disaster":
http://shopping.discovery.com/product-64664.html?endecaSID=11EB387C3022

The one called "Perfect Storm" covers this issue.

Some scary statements in it.

Also, check out Scientific American, I believe it's the October 2008 issue (cover topic is about not enough water ). Covers this in a little more technical detail.

Agreed. I just don't like folks thinking lines are insulated, and then getting too close and finding out they aren't.

MDinana:
The insulation, those glass knobs and ceramic plates on power lines, is for electrical insulation of the power line from the ground.

It does nothing to insulate against the Magnetic effects that solar flares produce on the Earth's Magnetic field.
To insulate against magnetic effects you would need to build Faraday cages around all of the transmission line.
That is not going to happen.

It is the change in the Earth's magnetic field that induces the currents in the wires of the power lines and in the computer circuits.
This is much like how a generator works. A magnet is moved past a loop of wire.
The moving magnet forces an electrical current to flow in the loop of wire.

A solar flare changes the shape of the earth's magnetic field, it makes it wobble. That is like moving a very big magnet.

The change in the Earth's magnetic field turns long loops of electrical wires into generator windings.
Hydro transmisson lines are very long.
They are effectively loops of wire because to conduct electricity they have to be a complete circuit

Computers can be protected by being put in metal boxes or wire cages as magnetic shielding.

Long distance hydro lines can not be put inside metal boxes, but the lines can be provided with over current protectors.

One trick is to put more isolation transformers into long tranmission lines to break them into shorter lengths.

Another is to put surge protectors on the lines that will ground or disconnect short sections of them if there is a sudden current rise.

To protect home electronics storing it in metal boxes, not keeping it plugged in, not having it connected to an long antenna will all help.

You can expect there to be more problems with the satellite systems too.


JCWohlschlag said that so much easier and clearly than I just did, but I really wanted to see if I could

As others point out, a solar storm induces undesirable currents in electrical conductors, the insluation or not of said conductors is not relevant.

The voltage induced in short conductors is very small and generally of no importance.
The problems occur with very long conductors as would be found in large interconnected grid systems, the voltages can be great enough to overstress equipment and lead to large scale blackouts.
Given advance warning the risks may be reduced by isolating sections of the grid from each other, thus reducing the lengths of conductor in which voltages may be induced.

Any developed nation is at risk from solar storms, but the USA is perhaps at greater risk owing to the size of the nation and consequent very long grid lines.

Long distance telephone lines are also at risk if of copper, but most are now fibre optic which are immune.

All that while sustaining us.

The sun is devious that way. All I know is I wouldn't want to touch it.

So, go at night!

Kinda reminds me of the end of the movie "Escape to LA". When I think of everything suddenly going back 100+ years, I get a warm cozy feeling. All I need is a good excuse to abandon all this techno crap.

Of course, then I remember that without it, I wouldn't be able to read and write all these wonderful posts then.

Might actually force people to talk to one another. Then again, millions of people in NYC go daily not talking to anyone on the street.

Thanks everyone for the clarification. I remember reading somewhere that they weren't insulated - that birds don't get fried if they touch one b/c the current passes "through" and doesn't complete a circuit... until the bird bumps a second line.

OK, so the transformer, as I understand it, is to help insulate the house and the power lines from each other?

Transformers step up or step down the voltage. Like the one behind my shop has three phase 14.4KVA comming into it. Obviously not useable by standard electrical/electronic equipment. The transformer steps it down to something that can be used. (240 VAC in my case. Two legs of 120.)

The insulators are what the wire is connected to at the pole/tower. Look to the large transmission lines that seem to suspend the wire below each "arm". The sticks of "bubbles" looking thing it is attached to is the insulator. The higher the voltage, the farther the wire must be away from a path to ground or another phase.

Guy I know works helo high line repair. I asked him what happens if he get too close to a path to ground while energized (would it hurt?). He said not at all. His body would just vaporize.

Oh yeah.. The bird or squirrel has no path to ground or another phase to be electrocuted. Should you see dead wildlife at the base of a pole, you shouldn't touch it or the pole. There is a good chance the pole is energized, and is also going to get you if you get close even.

Yep, insulation is not the same as shielding. Insulation puts a highly resistive barrier to current flow, typically more resistive than the open air. Shielding shunts current from reaching the conductor by providing a different circuit path to discharge, such as the outer conductor of a coaxial cable. Typically the shunt is just run to ground, but sometimes it is run to a faraday well.

Transformers do a bit more than that.
Electricity is interesting stuff, and these people do a better job explaining it than I could.

From the Govt
http://www.eia.doe.gov/basics/electricity_basics.html

From the Central Iowa Power Cooperative
http://cipco.apogee.net/foe/home.asp

and then a little self test from Bell for those who think they know a lot.
I know that I would fail this one, but I am not an electrician.
http://www.asisvcs.com/publications/pdf/710041.pdf

I think it is a good thing to have a decent understanding of the basics in case you are ever near downed lines or need to hook up a simple circuit, just for safety's sake.

And encouraging young ladies to wear bikinis!!!!

But if you insist on wearing the tin foil hats remember to carry some Tony Chachere's in your BOB.

Everything tastes better with some Tony's (even brains....)!!!!

Remember when your local weather report would just tell you what the temp was probably going to be and if it might rain tomorrow?

The more information we gain, the more information we find ourselves needing.

I was just thinking about the Yellowstone e-quake frequency and wondering if we will eventually end up having weather broadcasts that cover not only atmospheric conditions but also geologic and interstellar conditions.

And looking at how these things all affect the weather / events the more useless the local news reports appear to me.

Good point! Ok. The boycott is over.

"... new satellites are now watching solar activity and would provide a warning of a major storm."

Okay, there's a major solar flare and scientists estimate we've got half a day to do something... So, what might that 'something' be? (Besides taking off the tinfoil hat)

And, what happens if it happens on a Sunday at 10 a.m.?

Sue

A number of actions can be taken

1)divide the grid into sections, with each area having sufficient generating capacity, plus a reserve, to meet local demand.

2) utility companies can arrange overtime working to ensure plenty of staff to reset circuit breakers, replace fuses, control plant manually. They may man subststions and switching centers that are normally automatic.

3)ensure that electric railroads have diesel locomotives available.

4) pre position tankers trucks of diesel fuel at hospitals etc in order to ensure ample supplies for diesel generators.

5) make arrangements with generator hire companies etc to ensure essiential facilities get first chance to hire generators and other plant

6) prepare evacuation centers for use, especialy in extrememly hot or cold weather

7) cancel police leave, extra policing may be required.

8)place the armed forces at a higher state of readyness, lest terrorists or foreign enemies attempt to take advantage of any confusion.

adam2's post is pretty spot on for what is going to happen.

This is why I don't like everything being digital. You're going to have to protect the grid by shutting it completely down. You'll have to start with all of the nuclear plants, because they require the grid to operate their safety systems. They have diesel generators, but once those are turned on, the reactor is scrammed from what I understand. So, in order to shut down the grid, you are going to have to have a coordinated power down otherwise someone is going to burn something out. Not sure how long that will take. You would also have to make sure everyone that relied on electricity (i.e. hospitals, people on ventilators, etc. ) are taken care of. You _will not_ have the benefit of satellite or HF communication during and after the event, so gonna have to fall back to the "sneaker net".

Regarding the transformers (maybe it's been mentioned here) but from my understanding the worldwide production is 35 to 70 transformers A YEAR. There are 100,000's of these larger transformers in the world. From my understanding (I didn't look today), we do not have any domestic (U.S.) production of these transformers. We'll have to buy them, or take them my force, from somebody else. Not even sure that will work with our 60Hz, 120VAC system. Doesn't everyone else have 220VAC, 70Hz or something?

You have it about right.
Worldwide production is 1) mostly offshore to the us, 2) limited to schedule production of about 30 or 40 units worldwide.

All of these transmission line type transformers are essentially custom made to an application.

In other words we don't use "off the self" transformers, they are designed for a specific location/application.

Power around the world varies from 50 to 60 HZ (cycles per second) with some legacy systems using 25 HZ.
Voltages are from 60KV (kilo volts) to 1 MV (Mega Volt) primaries and secondaries from 69KV to 13.2KV, but again of
the 100,000 installed base vary few would match even if the frequency and voltage match, the sizes (capacity) vary just as much or more and have to match the impedances of the circuits involved a custom designed application.

We can repair these, but not in place, they have to be R&R to a shop, and these have capacity of 1 or 2 per month.

Even the distribution transformers we use in industry are typically 13.2KV or 35KV are 90 day lead time.
The plant where I am the chief electrical engineer has one spare for it's 14 substations.

And by the way, lots of other things like circuit breakers, switches, power factor correctors etc. are also custom and in short supply.
They also cost a fortune to have sitting around collecting dust, so the accountants will not let you have plenty of spares.
Also maintenance staff are routinely working 60+ hours a week.
We have a very thin line.

Most people have no idea just how thin the technical staffs are; I went to LSU, we had 30K (thousand) students, just 1200 in all engineering disciplines.
My step son has a tee shirt typically of the students these days, it says "liberal arts major, you do the math".

We are in deep do do as the existing people are mostly about to retire (or so they think).

stock up on batteries, generators and fuel, oil, etc.

Our power infrastructure is pretty bad, even broken bridges can by bypassed.

Good luck.

The relativly small transformers used to power homes and busineses are produced in most developed countries, including the USA, by many competing companies.
There are indeed hundreds of thousands of these transformers in use. possibly millions. With an average life of a few decades, that implies anuall production of rather more than 35 or 70.
Utility companies hold stocks of spares.

The problem would be with very large grid transformers, of many hundreds MW capacity, these are used in much smaller numbers of from a few dozen to a few thousand (depending on your defination of "very large")
An anuall production of 35 or 70 would certainly be reasonable for such very large units.
The timely replacement of such transformers damaged by a solar storm could certainly be problematic, though they can sometimes be repaired.
Very large transformers are generaly custom manufactured, and cant therefore be held in stock as spares.
The failure of one or two large grid transformers should not be that serious, after all, although long lasting, they do fail in normal use, or due to lightning. When this happens the utility routes power by alternative routes, useing other transformers, until repair or replacement.
If however a sufficient number of very large transformers were damaged, there could be prolonged blackouts or power rationing.

It should not be required to complelty shut down power grids when a solar storn threatens, but to sectionalise in order to limit cable lengths in which undesirable currents can be induced.

Most countries other than the USA use 220/230/240 volts at 50 cycles rather than the USA 120 volts 60 cycles.
However the very high voltages used for bulk power transmission are more or less standardised world wide, in emergency 50 cycle transformers can be used on 60 cycles, though this is not ideal.

In an emergency, the need for bulk long distance power transmission can be reduced by more local generation near towns and cities.
This could be by the continous operation of plant normally only used in the peaks, or by fleets of large mobile generators.

Insulation will not deter the electromagnetic radiation. The EM will then set up a current in any condutor and cause problems. EM is a magnetic field that is moving.

You would unplug everything in your house that has an electronic chip in it including the phone. Stuff all of the small electronic items you could into metal boxes, unplug any antennas for your radios or wireless internet antennas for your computers.

The metal boxes will act as Faraday cages to shield the electronics from a magnetic wave.

Most of the older style stuff without integrated circuits will likely be just fine

That is about all that you can do.

Has it been said that dec 21st 2012 we are lined up with the sun and the middle of the milky way at the same time? This a a 26,000 year event or something. I think it's called the galactic alignment. It's the satellites that are really gonna get hammered by the storms. bye bye GPS

The GPS system crashed on Dec 6 2006 from the effects of a solar flare. They waited until April 2007 before announcing it.

Uuhhhmmm. No football, baseball, basketball, hockey, nascar, golf, etc... No ESPN?

Reading the posts from adam, and the rest suggest that a lot of the actions are already in place around the nation in response to a variety of events:

a) hurricane season
b) earthquake preps
c) blizzard power outages
d) other large scale disruptions to services.

The tricky part is teaching the public:

1) how to respond to the specific effects of a solar flare,
2) getting them to respond appropriately / take it seriously.

If you tell folks on the gulf and east coasts "hurricane's a-coming", we (a percentage of us) know what actions to take.

The rest don't care and there's nothing that is going to reach those knuckle-heads ... (I've given up trying).

Exactly. First question you are probably going to ask with any disaster is: Do I stay here, or go some where else?

Yeah. Bugging out "should" be a last resort.

The safest place "should" be home.

If bugging out is one of the first choices, it may be advisable to find safer digs.

But not always an option.

We don't necessarily get to live where we want, we more often live where we can (access to employment, etc).

I guess the whole goal of preparedness is thinking ahead so you can make the most of where you're at and what you got...