Sheltering in Place.... the only real option?

I live on relatively high ground, surrounded by a somewhat flood-prone area. My place flooding? Unlikely. Marooned? Possible.

I live about 60 miles from the next likely volcano to blow, but ash is the only likely result if it does, as I'm out of the way of the direct blast or lahar (debris) flows by about 30 miles.

Earthquakes are our second most likely scenario, after flooding.

Then there's always the chance of brushfire, trucker's strikes, collapse of the economy, and bouts of transmissible disease. I'm sure I'm missing some stuff.

I have 1900 sq ft of shelter, plus a garage, on a level acre of arable land.

I'm learning gardening, but it's a slower process than I realized, esp when you have to go to work. But I do have the tools and seeds.

I have lots of how-to books on various subjects. Books are heavy and difficult to transport. They're better used at home.

I have lots of natural fiber bedding, and a shed full of firewood and a wood stove. I also live in Douglas fir country, lots of firewood, a few years worth on my property alone.

I know many of my neighbors. Many of them have useable skills.

I have a good watchdog that isn't too trusting.

I have more tools than most women.

I don't have a natural source of water, but living in the PNW, rainwater harvesting is a good possibility.

I have a friend who has some knowledge of herb uses.

All this, or bug out? As far as I'm concerned, there's no question.

Sue

Definitely bug-in. Gardens will continue to grow while you're at work. Put in a small greenhouse to get a head start in the spring. Do you have a root cellar?

I think I’ll throw my 2¢ in on the shelter in place vs. bug out debate here. (My apologies, Susan, if this wasn’t really the response you were waiting for.) More like 1½¢ since it should be short:

The way I feel is this… the more prepared you are, the less chance there is that bugging out is your best option. To the normal masses, getting away is what you do when you run out of options. To the prepared individuals, their preparations are their options. Even if something huge took place, such as a nuclear blast or series of them, a majority of the prepared will have a large portion of the supplies necessary to shelter in place for that event. The best of us have the plastic sheeting, duct tape, etc. to make our home ready (a couple of us even have the bomb shelter under the garage ).The people who haven’t taken any steps to prepare… they run.

Now, if your house is burning down or the circumstances make it impossible or dangerous to remain in your home, you bug out (of course). But even those of us that are prepared will have some supplies that are ready to go along with a plan to take the stuff that is important and irreplaceable with us. Those who have no plan are simply running away from the fire.

The fact of the matter is this: if you are going to bug out permanently to “live off the land”, you better have a damned well-prepared place to go. You might want to watch Les Stroud’s special “Off the Grid” because that is the kind of place you will need in order to “live off the land”. In fact, you may have to go further than that to make it a successful venture. There is just an inordinate amount of stuff that we take for granted that will suddenly have to be supplied all on your own (unless you are part of a “live off the land” coop community or something) such as food, water, fuel, and all of the creature comforts that we also take for granted (such as electricity).

I guess I am trying to point out that there is a difference between running, bugging out, and living off the land. Running is a reaction that has no plan as a backup. Bugging out is a temporary retreat that is accompanied by a plan and some supplies, with the intention to return when things are calmed and/or safe. Living off the land is an almost impossible goal that even the groups of pioneers, even with a whole plentiful expanse of nature at their disposal, had trouble conquering (and that was with the help of their neighbors and family, not by themselves).

Okay, so this turned out more like a nickel’s worth. So shoot me.

P.S.: I think your situation has made many of us jealous, Susan. Sounds like a paradise. And your point is well delivered.

I hate the "bug in" vs "bug out" question, it is too binary. That is like saying "pie or cake, pick one" or "hammer or screwdriver, pick one". Snot, dirty ears and other comments- they are both options and neither should ever be off the table. Bugging out is less desirable, but there are times where it would be required.

Sue, what I would ask in your specific case is, how strong is your building? If you do get ash, as I understand it, it is basically quickcrete coming down like snow. And that volcanic erruptions are often followed by rainfall due to the amount of seed particles thrown into the air.

Can your buildings take three inches of concrete piled on the roof? 6"? 12"? Do you have a mud/ash slide risk afterwards? Do you even want to be breathing it in in the first place?

Volcanos aren't a major concern where I am, unless Yellowstone pops and I put that in the same probability as a big rock falling out of the sky. (Real, but extremely rare, and not much you can do about it.) Maybe my data is wrong, and I'm jousting at a windmill. But I would never completely rule out bugging out. Or sheltering where you are. Taking any contingency plan out of the folders is a bad idea.

IMHO, I agree 100 pct w/ironraven. It is wiser to keep all options on the table and reviewed/revised at least once a year. I am at the annual reviewing and revising stage once again.

(I guess y'all could figure that out from some of the posts that I've made recently.)

After Dec 1st, I have to swap out my bottled water and reduce the amount kept on hand until 01 May 2008.

I will stand down from Hurricane readiness on the 1st of Dec.

Sounds like an awesome place. Buggin out would be like leaving paradise. The only thing about volcanic ash though is that its pretty much tiny shards of glass. Which way do the prevailing winds blow?

The most desireable option of bugging out is bugging in......somewhere else. Here in the southwest, we don;t have hurricanes, earthquakes, or forrest fires (except in the mountains), tornados are a rarity too. LACK of water is our biggest concern (can it get much bigger?).

The land around our place is too arid and sparse for much of a brush fire, although it can happen. We have a little over an acre, well water, a generator, a small garden, chickens, ducks, rabbits, and three large freezers. We have ten acres of land about 7 miles to the south with a (tractor) trailer on it and a small camping trailer. No well or electricity there, though.

So, there are some options we have that are somewhat similar to yours. Still though, we ALWAYS plan to bug IN, it's the circumstances that determine when it's time to bug OUT. Then, it's time to find somewhere to bug into.

In most cases I agree that staying put is the best plan, however there are always contingencies we don't count on. If you have a bug out plan in place it does not mean you have to leave, it only means that you can do so faster and more efficiently than you can with out prior planning. Also any plans or equipment for bugging out can be used when the decision is made to stay. The idea in being prepared isn't to be prepared for a very specific set of events but to be as flexible and as adaptable as we can.

JCW: "There is just an inordinate amount of stuff that we take for granted that will suddenly have to be supplied all on your own..."

Beautifully put!

Ironraven: "If you do get ash, as I understand it, it is basically quickcrete coming down like snow."

It does come down like snow, as fine as fireplace ash. It's so light you can't shovel or sweep it very well because it becomes airborne again. I would get home ASAP, get up on the roof and sweep it off slowly with a push-broom. It's almost as light as air... until it rains. THAT'S when it turns to wet concrete, because it holds so much moisture so well.

Second problem with ash esp related to bugging out: it clogs a vehicle's air filter badly. A friend's neighbor was driving east from Ellensburg when St. Helens blew, and the ash started falling heavily in the 'dead zone' between Moses Lake and Spokane. That area was directly downwind of the volcano. He said he could only drive a maximum of two miles before he had to pull over and clean the air filter again. He stopped to help women stalled beside the road and told them what they needed to do. All the rest areas were loaded, people were parked in groups along the road. He said it was an AWFUL long trip, and almost as dark as night the whole time.

LED: I am upwind (with prevailing winds) of the volcano, but if the winds aren't blowing, it just blows straight up and falls down over the whole area. Depending on weather conditions and time of day, the winds here can come from all compass points. But we would probably get less than many other places. When St. Helens blew, the ash in some places that were upwind of the prevailing wind were a foot deep, I've heard. Downwind was a nightmare.

I would try to seal the place as well as I could (tricky with a mobile), and crack open my box of 100 dust masks. Maybe I should get more....

Sue

Susan I was in Olongapo City during the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo 60 miles away. Your problem isn’t just breathing the dust and ash. The ash is more like a snow that accumulates the same way but weighs more. Then to add insult to injury it sets up like concrete. We had several an accumulation of more than 6inches in less than an hour after the eruption and some smaller buildings collapsed under the weight. A mobile home with a flat roof would collapse in a very short time

When Pinatubo blew, it put about TWENTY-FIVE TIMES as much ash into the air as St. Helens did! So I have absolutely no doubt that it was as nasty as you say.

And Rainier is five or six times the size of St. Helens...

Sue

One of the good things about living in a home on wheels is that if we have to "bug out," everything goes with us. But there is no way a 35 ft fifthwheel will go on forest service roads, and we have to hit a gas station pretty often. So, depending on what is going on, we would probably sit tight...