Steve Fossett SAR

Posted by: Katie

Steve Fossett SAR - 09/04/07 07:50 PM

It looks like Steve Fossett of round-the-world in a balloon fame is missing after taking off in a single engine plane this morning. The NYT has an article about the SAR efforts in Nevada.
Posted by: picard120

Re: Steve Fossett SAR - 09/04/07 08:30 PM

He is a well equipped outdoors person. In addition, Steve has financial means to acquire any state of the art survival equipments on the market. I think SAR efforts will find him within a week.
Posted by: Leigh_Ratcliffe

Re: Steve Fossett SAR - 09/04/07 08:45 PM

B.B.C. reports: No flight plane filed. They do not know where to look. I expect that they will calculate max possible range for the aircraft and go from there.

I rather fear that unless he has put the plane down somewhere or has parachuted he is very likely dead. I hope not, but this might be a case of familiarity breeding contempt with fatal results. Also: Given his age it's quite possible that he has had a heart attack or something at the controls.

Hopefully he will show up tomorrow alive and with a good story.
Posted by: Katie

Re: Steve Fossett SAR - 09/04/07 09:21 PM

The story on CNN.com has some additional details. Like you said, he hadn't filed a flight plan. He didn't have a parachute, doesn't have his sat phone with him (he was only going for a "short flight," and apparently didn't think it was necessary), and the ELT on his plane isn't transmitting. All of that being said, this guy has been around the block a few times, including aviation emergencies, so hopefully all will turn out OK.
Posted by: Doug_Ritter

Re: Steve Fossett SAR - 09/04/07 11:05 PM

One disturbing quote from the NYT article:

"Major Ryan also noted that Mr. Fossett did not take along a satellite phone or other radio equipment 'he would normally take because he only intended to be gone a short while.'"

<SIGH!> Assuming he's survived whatever befell him, a 406 MHz PLB would have likely already resulted in his rescue. Always carry your PLB with you when you fly, ALWAYS!

Survival gear is not just for long distance cross countries...
Posted by: Doug_Ritter

Re: Steve Fossett SAR - 09/04/07 11:13 PM

Originally Posted By: Leigh_Ratcliffe
B.B.C. reports: No flight plane filed.


Just to be clear, since many here are not pilots. There is no requirement to file a flight plan for a VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flight in the U.S. That doesn't mean some sort of flight plan isn't a good idea. For example, I typically make sure Sue knows where I am going and all the rest of the usual details, but don't file with the FAA. She knows what to do if I don't call by the appropriate time.

But, again, no legal requirement involved, at least in the U.S. I cannot speak to other country's regulations.
Posted by: Katie

Re: Steve Fossett SAR - 09/04/07 11:17 PM

It sounds like he had a case of "just driving to the corner store, can't be bothered to put on my seatbelt." I sympathize with that, and will shame-facedly admit to having done it every once in a while. If he's alive, I'm sure he's kicking himself.
Posted by: Doug_Ritter

Re: Steve Fossett SAR - 09/04/07 11:21 PM

Originally Posted By: IzzyJG99
I get the gut feeling he ran into bad weather and died. I know that's morbid and bad, but I think that's what happen. I honestly hope I am wrong.


I didn't note any discussion of bad weather, but perhaps I missed that.

Originally Posted By: IzzyJG99
But you know when a plane is going down it's not like it's going down at a gentle walk, it's going down fast and hard and that doesn't mean you're gonna live.


I'm not sure I agree. A controlled landing, even in rough country, is more often survivable than not. More folks survive off-airport lands than die. I've spoken to many such survivors. Moreover, an aircraft like a Citabria with a conventional gear (tailwheel) and low stall speed would be optimum for such a landing. Steve is also an accomplished pilot with a lot of experience, furthering the odds in his favor.

OTOH, it is certified for aerobatics and stuff happens. <shrug>

In any case, I suspect we'll find out soon enough.
Posted by: Susan

Re: Steve Fossett SAR - 09/04/07 11:50 PM

The area they're searching is hot and dry. The weather was okay, except for gusty winds.

"Steve has financial means to acquire any state of the art survival equipments on the market."

Only if he took it with him. It may be in the same bag with his sat phone. Maybe rich people also think "it won't happen to me". Neither money nor intelligence equals common sense.

He should have been able to bring a plane like that down as a glider if he had to, if he wasn't over rocks. He was supposed to be going to look at dry lake beds, and there's nothing better to land on unless the offroaders had created trenches in it while it was wet. In that case, it could have pitched over on its nose.

I hope there was water in the plane, because there's not much out in that area right now.

If he's lucky, he's alive and cussing not having more equipment with him.

Sue

Posted by: JCWohlschlag

Re: Steve Fossett SAR - 09/05/07 01:05 AM

Additionally, I would like to point out this portion of the article:
Quote:
At a news conference Tuesday afternoon, Major Ryan said the plane has a tracking device that can be detected by satellite, but she didn’t know if searchers had gotten any information from it.

The “tracking device that can be tracked by satellite” would be the plane’s built-in ELT, and you (Doug) have made a point (in numerous locations) on your site of how notoriously unreliable ELT’s are at starting up after a crash. This is another big reason to always take your PLB with you on a flight (no matter how long or short).
Posted by: Susan

Re: Steve Fossett SAR - 09/05/07 02:11 AM

I faintly remember reading or hearing something about ELTs needing enough of an impact to set them off, and that a lesser impact won't set them off and they may need to be turned on manually.

Does anyone know if this is true?

Also, if the ELB is in some sort of trench or canyon, I am assuming that this could severely limit access to satellites?

Sue

Posted by: ironraven

Re: Steve Fossett SAR - 09/05/07 02:19 AM

At this point, it's in the cross fingers and hope stage for everyone not in the search. I hope he's just sitting next to his plane cussing himself for being foolish and leaving the satphone or PLB behind.

The impression I got from the NPR report was that he was going to be looking at dry lake beds for some testing he's getting ready for. I know they are usually largish, but how many are there in that area? Every picture of a dry lake bed I've seen looks like a decent place to try land, so long as you miss things like mountains in between them.
Posted by: Doug_Ritter

Re: Steve Fossett SAR - 09/05/07 02:34 AM

Originally Posted By: Susan
I faintly remember reading or hearing something about ELTs needing enough of an impact to set them off, and that a lesser impact won't set them off and they may need to be turned on manually.

Does anyone know if this is true?

Also, if the ELB is in some sort of trench or canyon, I am assuming that this could severely limit access to satellites?


The problem, even with the latest generation ELTs is that they are too easily set off. This why even a moderately hard landing can set them off. If a landing is soft enough not to set off the ELT's G switch, it's unlikely to damage the pilot and pax.

Having said that, they all do have a manually activated switch. They also have innumerable ways to fail, which is why they are so unreliable.

PLBs will work fine as long as they have a modest view of the sky. We have tested them in pretty narrow and deep canyons and gorges. They may not get a GPS fix, if they are so equipped, and they may not get to the Geostationary satellite (though often the signal reflected off canyon walls will still do so), but the Low Earth Orbiting (LEO) satellites will eventually get a Doppler location over a matter of just a few hours max and depending upon geometry and timing, possibly within 20-30 minutes.
Posted by: JimJr

Re: Steve Fossett SAR - 09/05/07 04:26 PM

I'd be willing to bet that the ELT on his plane was a EBC-502. This type is quite prevalent on the small aircraft like the Decathalon. They appear to be darn near indestructible and will successfully operate even on very old batteries (like the one I found in a FBO's dumpster with 7 year old batteries). All they need is a decently open view of the sky.

I hope Steve comes out of this latest "adventure" ok.
Posted by: Katie

Re: Steve Fossett SAR - 09/05/07 05:06 PM

Here's an interesting quote from CNN.com :

Quote:
Branson struck a more cautious tone Wednesday, saying he was "obviously worried" that Fossett may be injured because he was wearing a watch capable of emitting an emergency distress signal. If Fossett were OK, Branson surmised, he would've been able to activate the manually operated signal.
Posted by: Russ

Re: Steve Fossett SAR - 09/05/07 07:24 PM

I heard the weather was good, but that doesn't mean he didn't catch some bad air while he was checking sites to set a land speed record. On that thought, it seems to me this is something done from low altitude. Low altitude, low speed, highly maneuverable aircraft. . . over-confidence. . . one little burble. . . I wonder how low he was flying. . . I don't feel confident we'll see Steve Fossett walking again, hope I'm wrong.

Look at the search area: "Fossett's single-engine plane vanished Monday over a section Nevada east of Lake Tahoe and the California border that is marked by rugged mountains jutting to 10,000 feet, steep canyons and sagebrush-filled desert." LA Times article

Not exactly the "dry lake bed" Fossett was looking for. Air currents in the Sierras can be really nasty.

Break

My EDC grew from my time in aviation. There's a small amount of gear you always take, it might be a helmet bag, a small backpack, a survival vest you always wear, whatever. These days my helmet bag has a liter of water, maybe a sandwich, headset, notebook, multi-tool, RSK Mk1 and if I felt any need for a PLB there would be one of those too. Fossett left his sat-phone on the ground; what else did he leave? The Citabria Super Decathlon is small, but it's not so small that a helmet bag can't go along.


Posted by: unimogbert

Re: Steve Fossett SAR - 09/05/07 07:49 PM

Fossett has excellent chances based on experience and skill. That he was checking out dry lakes is a plus in case of engine failure because of the possibly benign nature of landing there.

On the other hand, if he were doing something like rolling the wheels on the dry lakebed to test it or was flying very low he could have encountered ruts, mud, birdstrike or other hazards.

That there is no ELT signal but no one has seen a plane shape on a dry lakebed suggests to me that the plane is upside down and the ELT antenna is ripped off and perhaps he's pinned so he can't remove the ELT for use. Seems very unlikely that he just flew into the side of a hill for some reason.

As time goes on things look much worse.

C'mon Fossett - show us how to survive it.....
Posted by: Russ

Re: Steve Fossett SAR - 09/05/07 08:22 PM

If his engine quit at altitude I have no doubt Fossett's experience and skill would find a place to set it down. Then he could/would have manually triggered the ELT and waited for rescue -- no ELT. This is where he kicks himself for leaving that Sat-phone behind.

Sometimes experience and skill are outvoted by over-confidence. If something went wrong at low altitude Fossett may have found himself behind the power curve and he may not have been able to recover. Things happen fast and there's not much time to fix a problem. Even a low speed accident can be fatal.

If he's still in the plane, it's hot and he hasn't had a drink since Monday. I just hope the aircraft stayed intact and is not so obscured that it can't be found before he dies of exposure.
Posted by: Susan

Re: Steve Fossett SAR - 09/06/07 01:23 AM

From the Associated Press (http://www.wtop.com/index.php?nid=104&pid=0&sid=1238355&page=1):

"Authorities said the airplane carried food, water and other survival gear, and estimated Fossett could survive at least a week."

Sue
Posted by: Russ

Re: Steve Fossett SAR - 09/06/07 01:52 AM

Thanks Sue. I'm really surprised by that; I've never seen a small general aviation aircraft that carried food, water and survival supplies for a week. How much would that weigh? Maybe it just goes with the high desert region the aircraft is in and the owners just know enough to keep it stocked. But all those good supplies and Fossett leaves his Sat-phone on the ground. Just doesn't make sense. . .
Posted by: Doug_Ritter

Re: Steve Fossett SAR - 09/06/07 02:04 AM

One person's "week" is another person's couple days. Plus, a week of subsistence rations isn't the same as a week of rations that would keep you functional. It's all a matter of perspective.

My Aviator Survival Pak is designed to keep 2-people functional for 2-3 days, depending upon climate. Some might call that a week's worth.

Finally, one must never take anything in the media during an incident at face value. Always keep that in mind.
Posted by: Doug_Ritter

Re: Search Details from AFRCC - 09/06/07 02:28 AM

More details of the search from the Air Force / AFRCC perspective is on http://www.af.mil:80/news/story.asp?id=123066968
Posted by: JCWohlschlag

VFR Preparation Recommendations - 09/06/07 03:37 AM

One of the things I’ve noticed is that many of these missing aircraft SAR operations are reported by the media as “no flight plan filed”. I understand the basics of Visual Flight Rule (VFR — no flight plan required) and Instrument Flight Rule (IFR — flight plan mandatory and ATC likes to get in touch with you if you deviate from that plan without notice).

I know we have several general aviation pilots on the board, including Doug and HTMLSpinnr. What are you guys’ input about preparedness and VFR flights? I know Doug wrote on this site (somewhere) that the “VFR system isn’t perfect”. I believe that you are still able to file a flight plan even under VFR, and I know that there are options such as ATC flight following (unless ATC resources are stretched) available to VFR pilots. What, other than a properly packed survival kit and a PLB, do you guys think is proper “preparation” for GA VFR aircraft?
Posted by: Chris Kavanaugh

Re: VFR Preparation Recommendations - 09/06/07 04:05 AM

I am dismayed( but not suprised)with comments of Steve having physical and psychological gifts to walk out of such situations.Once more we have Jack London Ubermennen instead of the earlier classic TO BUILD A FIRE. That Steve is a gifted pilot is true. But, and I mean no demeaning of his accomplishments, breaking speed, altitude and endurance records is like holding the world hotdog eating championship.It does little to improve the cooking of hotdogs or their usual ( unless you grab the Hebrew Nationals)ingredients. If this comes out bad, the old legend of WW1 french flying ace Guynemer is appropro. " He flew so high he couldn't get back down."
Posted by: Russ

Re: VFR Preparation Recommendations - 09/06/07 11:52 AM

Then there's the saying, "There are old pilots and bold pilots, but no old, bold pilots.". E. Hamilton Lee, 1949

I know a number of pilots who have 5 digit flight hours totals. At a certain point it's just an endurance test. These guys have all had their share of emergencies and so far they've walked away from all of them. That's what makes old pilots, the ability to overcome the aircraft when it tries to kill you. We'll see, but if Fossett were able to make contact we'd have heard something.
Posted by: thseng

Re: VFR Preparation Recommendations - 09/06/07 12:49 PM

"Today a 747 taxied over a parked and tied down Cessna 172, demolishing it. Under repeated questioning the airport official reluctantly admitted to our reporter that the small aircraft had not, in fact, filed a flight plan."

A flight plan is not a plan for flight.
Say it with me!
A flight plan is not a plan for flight.
A flight plan is not a plan for flight.
A flight plan is not a plan for flight.

A flight plan is FAA Form 7233-1. It takes up 1/2 of a page. The other half of the page is for a "Military stopover" and ironically the second page is reserved exclusively for the "Paperwork Reduction Act Statement"

This form is the official equivalent of telling your wife "Here's where and when I'm leaving from, here's where I'm going and when I should get there. Please send them looking for me if I don't arrive." ETS'ers know they should give a responsible person this same information anytime they go hiking, flying, whatever.

Obviously Steve did this also because now they are looking for him. They don't have a route to check because he was just flying "around" the local area.
Posted by: Russ

Re: VFR Preparation Recommendations - 09/06/07 01:16 PM

Originally Posted By: JCWohlschlag
. . . What, other than a properly packed survival kit and a PLB, do you guys think is proper “preparation” for GA VFR aircraft?
Check the weather to ensure you really have VFR flight conditions (apparently it was). Check the plane to make sure it's safe (apparently it was). Make sure someone will notice that you don't get back, they did. I have no problem with his flight preps other than him leaving his Sat-phone behind.
Posted by: Russ

Re: about that Breitling - 09/06/07 01:41 PM

Breitling Professional Emergency looks like a great watch, but note that it only transmits on 121.5 MHz. It's not a PLB. It's a great tool if someone is listening, but it does have limitations. Considering capabilities, I'd spend the money on a PLB and wear a Casio G-Shock for time.

Sir Richard Branson always makes a big deal mentioning this watch as though it alone will save the day. It's not a 406 MHz PLB. According to this article, the Breitling has registered signal.
Quote:
"They're registered to us personally, so they know it's you,"
How is the signal encoded. The watch may be registered, but I doubt the signal carries that data. Anybody? Doug? Any more info about this signal? I have my doubts.
Posted by: xbanker

Re: Steve Fossett SAR - 09/06/07 02:35 PM

Originally Posted By: Doug_Ritter
Finally, one must never take anything in the media during an incident at face value. Always keep that in mind.

AP, Sept. 5: "Fossett always wears a Breitling Emergency wristwatch ... said Granger Whitelaw, a fellow pilot...."

CBS, Sept. 6: "Some people were holding out hope that Fossett was wearing a satellite wristwatch he received from British tycoon Sir Richard Branson, but it turns out he did not have it."

* * * * *

"Authorities said at one point they thought they had spotted Fossett's plane and sent in a helicopter crew to confirm. "We thought we had it nailed," Nevada Civil Air Patrol Maj. Cynthia Ryan told reporters late Wednesday. "Unfortunately, it turned out to be one of many dozen unmapped wreck sites from previous years." I wonder...general aviation? Or maybe remnants of past military training in the area, e.g. aviation cadets during WWII?
Posted by: Russ

Re: Steve Fossett SAR - 09/06/07 03:01 PM

So what we're learning is that Steve may have had a week's worth of food, water and other supplies but that he left his personal satellite phone and he wasn't wearing his Breitling.

You know, leaving emergency equipment behind when going on a solo flight in unpopulated rugged mountainous/desert terrain is not something I expect from a meticulous planner and experienced aviator. Experience tells us that bad things happen at the worst possible time. We'd better have all bases covered because we don't get to choose when or where it strikes.
Posted by: Doug_Ritter

Re: about that Breitling - 09/06/07 04:21 PM

FYI, the Breitling Emergency transmits the same analog signal as a regular ELT.
Posted by: Russ

Re: about that Breitling - 09/06/07 04:28 PM

Thanks. Lots of bad info or at least bad quotes. 406 MHz PLBs look better and better all the time.
Posted by: Katie

Re: about that Breitling - 09/06/07 04:45 PM

Fossett search stresses need for new beacons says USA Today. ""I personally have chased alerts [from false alarms] to ATM machines, malfunctioning Christmas lights, and the University of Arkansas Jumbotron," Knox said."
Posted by: Susan

Re: about that Breitling - 09/07/07 04:03 AM

No PLB, no sat phone, no Breitling watch, just totally dependent on the radio in his aircraft, which may have fallen wingtip-down into a slot canyon, and the antenna is broken off. Great. So much for his planning ahead. If he's still alive, I'll bet he feels really, really stupid. And if he doesn't, he should.

Sue

Posted by: Russ

Re: about that Breitling - 09/08/07 04:23 PM

Latest on Steve Fossett once again changes the story on how much water (and other supplies?) he had with him.
Quote:
. . .Adding to the grim prospects was the revelation Friday that Fossett most likely had only one water bottle with him when he took off for what was expected to be a three-hour flight in a single-engine plane. Authorities initially thought he had enough water to last two weeks. . .
He could still walk out, but that 76 yo lady in OR had a slightly different ecosystem to deal with.
Posted by: Russ

Re: about that Breitling - 09/08/07 06:19 PM

The old "Familiarity Breeds Contempt" syndrome applies to other than people. You break that with EDC discipline. My helmet bag always goes flying with me, water, tools, signaling equipment, et al. On a VFR flight such as Fossett was on I'd have more gear, not less; there was no reason for Fossett to have left gear behind. There's no such thing as a "routine flight".

Every time you take-off you have to assume that today the plane or the weather or a flock of birds will try to kill you. An experienced aviator knows that stuff can go wrong on any flight so you always take core gear and supplement as conditions dictate. Sure the plane may have survival/emergency gear/supplies and if I owned that plane it would be well equipped for me. But Fossett was borrowing the plane and as we learn more each day, apparently it wasn't as well supplied as the owners may have thought it was.

Something went wrong with either Fossett or the plane and the rest is becoming history.
Posted by: picard120

Re: Steve Fossett SAR - 09/10/07 08:43 PM

I don't think Steve survived the plane crash. SAR haven't found him despite intensive search. They found old wrecks of other planes.
Posted by: picard120

Re: Steve Fossett SAR - 09/12/07 12:36 PM

CNN reported that SAR doubt that steve is alive. SAR said he was wearing a high tech emergency watch that could send out distress signal to satellite. His plane was also equipped with automatic distress beacon. None of those devices sent out a distress signal.

http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/09/12/fossett.search.ap/index.html
Posted by: jshannon

Re: Steve Fossett SAR - 09/12/07 01:08 PM

If it comes to an end with Fossett never being found, it will be a strong, and sad, reminder that even the most experienced can "fall" if they are not properly prepared. And, even the seemingly simplest of "missions" (Fossett just going for a fly over some land for a short time to look for his future record attempt) require a minimum of safety equipment in the event things go wrong.
Posted by: Russ

Re: Steve Fossett SAR - 09/12/07 01:17 PM

What this event tells me is to stop putting off buying that PLB.
Posted by: Susan

Re: Steve Fossett SAR - 09/12/07 07:19 PM

His wife said he didn't have that watch with him. He was totally dependent on the aircraft radio.

If he were still alive and capable of moving, you'd think he would have at least built a signal fire/smoke.

"What this event tells me is to stop putting off buying that PLB."

And "Complacency Kills".

Sue