A mental exercise in planning

Not being a TEOTWAWKI theory sort of gal, I watched a programme on British TV last night called Horizon. It was about what would happen to the UK if the gulf stream (that keeps our weather so mild for the latitude) stopped. They reckon that excess fresh water flowing into the Artic from the melting Greenland ice sheet and increased river output from the Siberian Rivers would stop the current circulating. The effect of not having this warm water flow past us is predicted to be devastating to North western Europes climate. At a basic level, it would get COLD. There would be an increase in snow fall and ice storms. In this situation, I think its fair to say that the UK's infrastructure as is wouldn't cope very well.

Anyway, here's the URL for the programme for more details:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon/

The programme got me thinking though.. IF it happenned, would I be prepared?

The answer without to much thought was no.

So what could I do to get prepared?

As a research student living off a maintenance grant (=constantly broke) living in rented multiple occupancy short term accommodation, things like large stores of food, water, fuel are out of the question (I move on average every 12 months). As are generators etc.

If this were to occur, I assume that national infrastructure (water, electricity, gas, transport) would be minimal or non-exsistant. Medical and emergency services would be stretched massively.

Given all that what preparations could I make as an individual?

I have some ideas that I'll post later on today and as I think of them later. I've just noticed how long this post is getting! I'd be especially interested to hear what people do who live in those sort of conditions already.

Like I said above, this is only a mental exercise for a bit of fun, but who knows what useful ideas may be generated?

<img src="images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" /> Answers on a postcard please....!

[rant warning]

OK, so let's just suppose that this theory isn't totally WHACKED (which it is). Something like this is going to take a few lifetimes to actually make an impact. The rate of melt in the arctic is indeed increasing and the cold water will displace / reroute some of the warmer gulf stream water. If that is physically sound it is already happening. The resulting decrease in regional temperatures should quickly result in an increase in snowfall and a decrease in melting in the trouble spots long before there is a threatening impact on the climate of the broader region. As this response weaken (as it must for the scenario to be at all worth considering) average temperatures in the region will slowly drop say 1/2 degree per year (that would be extremely radical change for climate) Meaning that you might have a few decades of colder winters with more than usual snowfall but nothing really troublesome. For the situation to become truely dire you would have to see freezing of the channel in winter. If you got to that point there would be no melting from the greenland icecap or arctic cap since it would be cold enough to freeze the channel that far south. By that time you would be facing a climate similar to wisconsin and those folks muddle by without much more trouble than you tho with perhaps a bit more cheese. Climate change is something that we should worry about but its rate is slow and can be adapted to even on the scale of national infrastructure.

[/rant warning]

I don't think this is likely to happen at all. You're right that climate change takes time etc. I guess I was thinking about that chaos we had recently when snow ( very little snow) brought part of the country to a halt (well the M1 anyway).

I figure if catastrophes and TEOTWAWKI is going to happen there's nothing I can do about it so there's very little point worrying about it.

The general approach to most situations here on the forum appears to be get trained and try to have the right tools at the right time. Sometimes this involves storing large amounts of stuff. As someone who can't store huge amounts, I guess I'm curious as to other solutions to things...

So although I absolutely agree that this scenario isextremely unlikely, it got me thinking....

OK so I will try to be a bit more thoughtfull.

Cold weather preps. If you might be without power for a bit during a winter storm you might wan't some light and heat. Perhaps some way to boil water inside. For all of these purposes the Alpaca Kerosene stove / heater and some newick candles would be a good thing. For being stucked in traffic during a winter storm you would want to have extra sweaters, blankets, warmth in the car and perhaps some signalling devices and some water. For these the newick candles, some army surplus wool blankets, spare gloves, hats, perhaps a ski coverall (that is what I carry) would probably suffice. If you wanted to add a sterno stove as well for heat and water melting so much the better. Just remember that you can't light anything on fire in the car unless you also open a window to exhaust the CO and bring in some O2. The heat addition may be negligible because of the heat lost thru the open window. Signalling might be simply a cell phone if you are in an area of decent coverage else you might want to consider getting your amateur radio ticket and at least a HT with a roof whip. A sturdy pair of winter boots in the car is also a good idea. You aren't looking for fit or fashion here just warm and cheap since they will ride in the car until an emergency and be used only to hike to the nearest building that you can gain access to for shelter. If you hike somewhere pocket the sterno stove and newick candles so you can heat whatever shelter you find.

I lived in Newfoundland for a couple of years and I have to say that the UK is a bit useless when it comes to a bit of bad weather. But I also think that any environmental changes we have will be slow enough for us to cope with. If not, I don't mind, everyone will stay in and I can have the countryside to myself <img src="images/graemlins/smile.gif" alt="" /> I loved being in Newf' and it doesn’t take a lot of effort to get used to a harsher climate. Hey, 25 years ago we used to get snowed in every year in Southern England and the North was even worse, maybe we will just return to the good old days!

FWIW, I understand the exercise.

It is, I suppose, marginally possible to lead a long life in which nothing particularly challenging happens. At the other extreme, when we experience the next asteroid or other "extinction event", it's likely that everyone is going to have a VERY bad day, and it may not matter a bit what one has stored in the cellar, or how easily one can build a fire.

In between, though, there is an infinite range of events that are more or less likely, and that are survivable with some degree of human effort. Most of us will experience some of them, sometime, but we have no way of knowing which, or when.

So- the value of any such scenario doesn't much depend on how likely it is or isn't. The event being contemplated is just a stand-in for the almost-inevitable challenging events in our futures that we do NOT forsee. If we could forsee what was coming, it wouldn't be much of a challenge. :-)

Specifics aside, just the fact that you're contemplating such things prepares you much better than most. Knowledge and skills take up no extra space, are no extra weight to carry, and usually cost little to acquire. In your situation, I'd worry less about what gear you should acquire, than about which skills you feel you should have and don't... and there's almost no telling what skills might be important in a crisis. Only you can identify the gaps in your overall competence, and remedy them. Almost any competence enhances all your others, so it's a great positive-feedback loop in your favor.

One of my favorite Heinlein quotes (and a lot of other people's):

"A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, conn a ship, design a building, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects."

It may be true that those interested in survival tend to be generalists, but I'll be it's even more true that generalists tend to be survivors.

PresumedA_Lost,

Wow, by the time I'd read Liz'a post and the the various responses, I'd come to almost the same thoughts, you got there first. Nice read. I concur.

Thanks. If we're all starting to think alike, it might just mean we're hanging out here too much... <img src="images/graemlins/smile.gif" alt="" />

Perhaps we need some new thoughts or innovations.

OTOH, Perhaps we are actually comming to the convergence of experience and expertise that occurs as one nears the truth.

Thanks for the replies!

As I completely failed to post the thoughts I'd come up with, I'll do so now.

When I posted, I was really thinking of gear, but as people have said, the skills are what's important to use the gear.

Useful skills I can think of:
First aid:
Mine's out of date (the last formal stuff I did was in the Girl Guides, which I left at 14, I've done bits and pieces since, but nothing comprehensive). So I've contacted the St.JOhns Ambulance and hope to update my skills.
HAM:
I've heard this can be quite expensive, not really an option at the mo..
Fitness:
Not really a skill, more of a general preparedness thing (especially in Sheffield, which is built on far too many hills <img src="images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />)
Driving:
I'm hopefully starting lessons agaiin soon. Getting a driving license would be useful generally............

Any others I've missed?
Mini-me, thanks for the thoughts. Those Newick candles look interesting. Does anybody know of a UK supplier (internet or otherwise)?

Some combination of the two, I think.

This forum has been an unparalleled resource for short-term survival thinking, and I certainly wouldn't change that.

Of course, it has the same drawback for us long-timers as any other forum... after awhile, it repeats a lot. That's necessary for those new to the site, but, without an influx of really new ideas, it means that there's less and less pulling long-timers back. You get the fourth discussion of hiking staffs, the third on woodburning stoves, the seventeenth on firestarting, the forty-sixth on sizes of tins, and the three hundred fifty-seventh listing of someone's PSK contents.

So, we participate less, and the newer people participate more. Maybe that's a good thing... but the character of the forum may change, too.

Liz,

I wouldn't think we'd generally be in a good position to judge what skills you should pick up. I'd suggest doing the mental exercise of running your protagonist/"heroine" through the sort of scenarios you were talking about, or others, and see what skills seem appropriate.

I've been driving (ad nauseum) for decades, but on this side of the pond that's sort of taken for granted. I can (and do, by preference) drive a manual/stick shift, but they're getting harder to come by here- might not be that much survival value in it.

I can also sail a boat, navigate tolerably well, and ride a horse- but I've often thought that I really should be able to ride a motorcycle as well. I'm completely at home backpacking, and doing map-and-compass work where there are no trails, but I couldn't land an airplane. I have fair experience with shooting, a few martial arts, even fencing, but, to my shame, the only Morse code I know is S-O-S. My command of other languages is abysmal, and I don't even have a passport. Even though I "batched it" for some years, my cooking skills are primitive at best, with the exception of maybe two or three simple dishes- I have baked decent bread a few times, but it took longer to clean up the kitchen afterwards than it took to grow the wheat. When I had to eat my own cooking I ended up a lot thinner. Speaking of which, my attempts at gardening have been about 25 percent successful- as a subsistance farmer, there's little doubt I'd starve. I've never plowed- er, ploughed, a field, or practiced animal husbandry much beyond feeding the cat. I can sew by hand, but not by machine. My one attempt at finger-weaving was an embarrassment, and I've never spun yarn or thread, or laid rope, for that matter. I've done blacksmithing and leatherwork, but I'm just now learning a little plumbing. I've never been a parent, was pretty much brought up as an only child, and would have only the vaguest idea how to take care of kids, much less infants, and far less teach them anything. I worked as a mechanic of sorts, and can do a fair amount of mechanical repair, but I have no machine-shop experience, or carpentry, or welding. I can start a fire with (real) flint and steel, but I'm not comfortable with a chainsaw- though I have used one.

And so it goes. Your list is going to be very much your own. List your strengths, and I'm sure the gaps will come to mind.

Like anything, Ham Radio can be quite expensive, especially if you're the type that always has to have two of the newest, latest, greatest toys (one for everyday use, the other to impress visitors <img src="images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" /> ) but it can be quite cheap too. If you're reasonably technical you should be able to pass the basic exam with self-study. Technically, you don't need to buy a radio; I didn't when I first got my Ham ticket. (I've since bought two - a Yaesu FT-817 and a Yaesu FT-1500, plus a magnetic mounted VHF antenna for my car.) But if money is tight, you should be able to pick up some pretty decent 2nd-hand ("pre-loved") equipment at swap fests; if money is really tight, you could even do without (just getting to know fellow hams will probably give you some useful contacts who are of like mind when it comes to being prepared <img src="images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" /> )

Of course, it TEOTWAWKI comes, being busted for operating an unlicensed Ham rig is probably going to be the least of your worries <img src="images/graemlins/shocked.gif" alt="" /> Having the skill to fix the radio if it's busted, though, could be a lifesaver. (Remember the book "Alive" by Piers Paul Read? One of the survivors on the plane was an electronics engineering student, IIRC, who made several attempts to fix the aircraft HF transmitter but was unable to do so. There might have been many more survivors if he'd had a Ham radio study guide with him.)