Looking for Information

I'm looking for some Information/opinion as to the current middle east crisis now ongoing. How serious is this US military attack on Syria going to get and what preparations are others now currently making.

I have currently been looking online for remote Holiday cottages this evening in the middle of Scottish Highlands for availability for a temporary BOL in the next week or two.

I am getting some bad vibes about what is currently going on.

A remote cottage in the Scottish highlands sounds great, go for it. [redacted] Personal opinion -- not going to happen. I could be wrong.

The rhetoric is looking much better with each passing day.

We may discuss preparations that you can take if there is military action or other unpleasantness in the area. Please take care to not so much as refer to the politics of this issue in any way.



chaosmagnet

I suspect that if you're not currently located in the Middle East that you're unlikely to see any significant effects from the current and potentially impending unpleasantness. Personally, I'm quite fond of the Scottish Highlands and I would cheerfully join you there if I could.

A remote cottage in the highlands would be a bonnie idea in any event. Would love to join you.

Nice edit. The comment that was redacted was unnecessary -- my apologies.

A multi-week walking tour of the Highlands (however unsteady it may become) is on my bucket list.

I would note that asymmetrical attention-seekers look for recognizable events and locations that have maximum media value. The simplest strategy is to be elsewhere, but that doesn't mean an uncharted island in the far Pacific; a mile of elbow room, with the prevailing wind in your face, covers most of the list.

My 2c.

it is difficult to predict what will happen in the ME and Syria. I think that the American president is scheduled to address the people on the subject this coming Tue night (Sep 10). If the US does strike Syria, I am not sure that reprisals will be directed at the UK. After all, the UK Parliament voted not to get involved. It seems plausible that terrorist reprisals could be directed at US or French interests.

The ME has been slowly filling up with powerful weapons for a long time. I am actually surprised that peace has prevailed there for as long as it has - considering all the possible triggers that could lead to a new war. Whether Syria will be that trigger is anyone's guess.

I agree that your Scottish highland cottage sounds very desirable. Hope you have some vegetables and a few sheep :-)

Pete2

I am sure it would make a suitable BOL, but I recommend you check it out now, just to be sure. As for the plight of the middle east, I wouldn't lose any sleep worrying about what may or may not occur. Just be prepared.

I'm currently checking out cottages in Sutherland like these;

Vegetables and sheep? Meh....
I would just make sure you have an ample supply of single malt!

Remember, beer has food value, food does not have beer value!

one of the problems with bugging out is actually making the decision to do so.

it is going to be very hard to get accurate information upon which to make such a decision in time to do any good.

I will be bugging out when first reports of a Nuclear weapon are used anywhere whether it is in the Middle East or in the CONUS or either any of the Capital Warship, either US or Russian are attacked/destroyed/sunk even if it is a false flag such as the USS Liberty attack (which had US aircraft from the 6th Fleet en route to drop a hydrogen bomb on Cairo).

The reality of these Middle Eastern adventures does not match the News media manipulation of what may about to go down.

Public Statements from senior US officials are getting more and more irrational, unbelievable and falsehoods are being treated as truths by the News Media.

Today is September the 9th (9-9)

I think it unlikely anyone uses either an A or N bomb. But if it happened, it would probably be too late to BO.

I am inclined to agree that any statement of any kind these days from official sources is highly suspect, given the track record.

Excellent point!

I wouldn't put any stock in what is being broadcast these days. By the time something happens, the spin will be something entirely different from reality.

You want to know what's happening in the world? Get on the shortwave.

I agree with your thinking. Being unfamiliar with the Highlands, are there any Priority Targets (military bases, 5,000ft + long runways, etc) upwind of the area?

As for indicators for Bugging out of a targeted area, I peruse several websites for news. That list covers both ends of the Reliabilty Spectrum. First indicators normally appear in the least reliable places. If there is more than one source within a short amount of time, Story Reliability increases. If the story surfaces on a moderately reliable site within 3 days, there is usually something significant about the story. If the story is true AND significant, it will show up on highly reliable sites within about 3 more days. That provides me about 6 days to evaluate the possible ramifications of that event and allows me to review and modify my planning in the meantime.

BigBen is right about listening to ShortWave Radio, IMO.

It seems unlikely that one would get 6 days advance warning on a war of any kind.

There are plenty of shortwave radio stations that are no more reliable than Alex Jones.

In any case, they tend to parrot each other. if a report shows up one place, it ends up a lot of other places without any fact checking going on. Not that this kind of thing can be fact checked in any reasonable way.

This is an excellent and often overlooked point in today's world. The number of sources reporting an alleged "fact" often has little or nothing to do with its credibility or veracity: it has more to do with the sensationalism of the alleged "fact". I'm seeing this yet again with the reporting about a certain man in Florida, who allegedly threatened his wife with a gun, but now that does not seem to be the case at all.

Sadly many, if not most, news organizations today simply scan the web, social networking sites and news services and report what others are saying as if it is true, with no independent access or checks of the ground truth. Back in the day, this was called rumor, not news. Grandpa used to say "Only believe half of what you read and nothing of what you hear." He was a naive and trusting soul. . .

If you want to get past the current headlines in the mass media, look for what the business and financial world are looking at. They are concerned with details, and they follow a story for a long time. Two of the most common outlets are the Wall Street Journal and the Economist magazine. There are many others out there, but it takes time to sift through them and determine what their agenda is, and they all have agendas. News outlets are a business after all. Figure out who they cater to, who their audience is and you will know more about their position. Then read every article critically. Pick out the facts from the opinions and conjecture. Follow up those facts in other sources. Look for local papers, or papers that cater to people from the area you are interested in, they will have more details and provide more depth. Try this site to find local reporting around the world: Newspaper Map

As has been pointed out, the hard part is finding sources actually reporting on the story you are interested in when it is not a headline. And headlines pass and forgotten quickly.

Agree. If this were a real threat I'd expect gold and oil to be going up. Maybe it's because mid-east wars are getting old, but oil and gold are down -- at least they're down today. Relative to 10 years ago they're both way up but there's no panic to buy them today.

I'm still where I was on my first post -- not going to happen -- and I could still be wrong because the one thing the past few years have taught me is that people lie. Generally, the market does not lie and will normally get it right.

+1 on "The Economist". Just like any publication, they have a worldview that is the lens of their perception and commentary.

With shortwave, you can get on non-commercial traffic, that is to say not broadcast radio in the commercial sense, but real operational traffic. You can tune into regular traffic in theater, and occasionally even the more mundane military traffic. You won't get any good tactical info, but there's still plenty of general data comms to give a quick heads up, if you know what to look for.

You do have to study the airwaves a bit to glean what makes for good listening and what is propaganda or pure commercial traffic. But shortwave can be pretty handy, and not terribly expensive, and if the internet goes down or gets filtered, there will still be HF signals a plenty bouncing around the globe.

You can listen in to SW radio over the Internet using a free download application called SDR-radio by accessing a network of connected SDR radios.

http://www.sdr-radio.com/



I also use a Funcube Pro+ USB dongle radio on a notebook PC as SDR-radio Ver 2.0 is now compatible with the Funcube.

http://www.funcubedongle.com/

These devices are all part of an off grid BOB SIGINT/Communications bag.

http://forums.equipped.org/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=251247&page=1