"Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World"

From the Office of the Director of National Intelligence

http://www.dni.gov/

Food for thought. The PDF is huge. Just a warning before downloading.

I seem unable to get the site to open.

Might make for interesting reading.

I have only been able to get on once today. I haven't been able to go to the site since then. I tried it at work, since they have a T1 line, and still I couldn't get on.

Here are some summaries of the report. The actual report is about 121 pages.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27835353/

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2008/11/21/report-dominance-influence-predicted-fade/

Mirror of the PDF

http://drop.io/siytmmg

33MB file - 121 color pages.

Weekend reading

Can anyone come back with a synopsis for me? I'm not up to that much reading right now.

Here's page for the report:

http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_2025_project.html

1. Move inland now. Like at least 50 miles from any ocean, bay or tidal basin.
2. Learn to grow your own food & collect drinking water. Especially water.
3. Make sure you live in a place where you don't have to drive to work, ever.
4. Become Indian or Chinese and/or a member of an international crime cartel.
5. Make sure you have plenty of sunscreen.
6. Don't expect to have much in the way of money, free time or job stability. The "Middle Class" you knew from 1950 to 1980 is never coming back.
7. Stop having so many children. They eat too much and use too much fuel.
8. Avoid turnips.

OK, I made #8 up, but I read all 121 pages of the report and that pretty much nails it pretty well. And I hate turnips.

LOL! Well, I'm good on 6 of 8.

Though FWIW my wife does a carrot-turnip casserole that is bloody excellent. Apparently it is a family recipe, and everyone demands it at Thanksgiving and Christmas. For reasons obscure to me it calls for a dollop of Velveeta, which (I assume) is what DOW uses to scrub the pipes between batches. But that's 100% heresay.

Mmm, Velveeta.

OK, I made #8 up, but I read all 121 pages of the report and that pretty much nails it pretty well. And I hate turnips.

Now, you're talking!

You missed a few of the biggies:
- By 2025, the international system will be a global multipolar one, ie. multiple strong regional powers.

- The United States’ relative strength—even in the military realm—will decline and US leverage will become more constrained.

- The transfer of global wealth and economic power now under way—roughly from West to East—is without precedent in modern history (note, they missed out on something here - Canada will increase its production of oil to 15% of the world supply and will probably be 50-60% of the total energy supply for the US up from 30%.)

- Middle East will continue to be a source of instability, possibly more so.

- Increased likelihood of terrorism.

- Climate change is likely to exacerbate resource scarcities, particularly water scarcities. (And put countries with lots of fresh water into a position of power. ie. Canada)

- Regional fears about a nuclear-armed Iran trigger an arms race and greater militarization.

- We remain optimistic about the long-term prospects for greater democratization, even though advances are likely to be slow and globalization is subjecting many recently democratized countries to increasing social and economic pressures with the potential to undermine liberal institutions.

- Asia, Africa, and Latin America will account for virtually all population growth over the next 20 years but the US, Canada and Australia will lead in immigrant growth.

- The World Bank estimates that demand for food will rise by 50 percent by 2030.

- Despite recent inflows into dollar assets and the appreciation of the dollar, the dollar could lose its status as an unparalleled global reserve currency by 2025.

- Economic and political empowerment of women could transform the global landscape over the next 20 years.

- The arctic will open up and be developed.

- A Two-Tier Muslim World? Although the Western paradigm separating religious and secular authority may still be less compelling to Muslim publics, a greater emphasis on economics and, most importantly, greater participation of women in the work force may spur new forms of progressive Islam.

- Potential Emergence of a Global Pandemic

I predict that the predictions will be predictably way off in ways that are impossible to predict.

Considering our present situation, I'd appreciate an accurate prediction of spring '09.

I suspect the primary purpose of the report is sell members of congress on the idea that the authors and their agencies are going to be very important and necessary in the future and in need of budget, man-power and pay increases.

How would I rate against this synopsis?

1. Move inland now. Like at least 50 miles from any ocean, bay or tidal basin.
I'm within crawling distance of the ocean and on a fault line

2. Learn to grow your own food & collect drinking water. Especially water.
I eat out, my fridge is empty, but I have water (I do have my MRE's and 30 day emergency supply of food), I have no ground to grow on

3. Make sure you live in a place where you don't have to drive to work, ever.
I commute 40 miles a day round trip

4. Become Indian or Chinese and/or a member of an international crime cartel.
My wife is Chinese and I'm Amish/Irish- but we both left our communities, so nope,no luck

5. Make sure you have plenty of sunscreen.
Old and runny, like me ex-wife (bitter, too)

6. Don't expect to have much in the way of money, free time or job stability. The "Middle Class" you knew from 1950 to 1980 is never coming back.
That's me! I'm never allowed back?

7. Stop having so many children. They eat too much and use too much fuel.
Whew, 1 out of 8- I'm saved!

8. Avoid turnips.
Do parsnips count? Or mangelwurzels?

Looks like you beat me to it... It was fun enough skimming through the paper for a little while but I see little real value in the projections. At least no more than I would trust a fortune teller and a crystal ball.

Let me see. The paper was probably made by pretty much the same guys who'd have us believe there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq... And who in 1970 were pretty sure the Moon would be colonized by the beginning of the 21st century. Though only as far back as 1960 they made a very reliable prediction that the mankind was just about to perish in a nuclear war.

It makes me wonder what those predictions are all about except for some government agency justifying their existence. It also reminds me of the words of Sun Tzu: perceiving something which is perceived by all is hardly the mark of highest excellence.

I'm sure the world in 2025 will be very different from our own. But I'm also sure it will be very different from what the current projections suggest.

Hey, Dagny, welcome to the fire.

I predict that your post will be shortlisted for "best first post this week" ... but such things are predictably unpredictable of course.

I especially like the parts that hint at "keeping our Canadian buddies very happy in the future."

;-)

Will you have a small spot on your property where a southern transplant might pitch a well armed tent and sip water from your pond?

Well, if that is the case, then my wife will get her wish to move back to Canada and I'll become the immigrant!

Since we're on the topic of predictions, here is the Russian version of what will happen to us.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,457550,00.html

A Russian scholar is predicting that the United States' current financial crisis will lead to the breakup of the country.

Igor Panarin, a professor at the diplomatic academy of Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told the newspaper Izvestia on Monday that America will break apart into six regions following the crisis.

"Dissatisfaction is growing, and it is only being held back at the moment by the elections, and the hope that [President-elect] PHRASECENSOREDPOSTERSHOULDKNOWBETTER. can work miracles," according to a translation by Bloomberg. "But when spring comes, it will be clear that there are no miracles."

Panarin predicts the U.S. will split into: the Pacific, the South, Texas, the Atlantic coast, the central states and the northern states, and hinted that Alaska could be Russia's for the taking.

The professor said China and Russia will become the world's great regulators.

That professor is a moron. Therefore I predict that he could be elected to Congress from Massachusetts.

We spend so much time slicing and dicing information, with all of the resources available (I guess that's why we're on this forum to begin with), I wish I could go forward in six month increments for a few years to see what is on the mark so I knew who to listen to today.

I agree, all of these predictions are another big "what if". I liken this to diet books- everyone has "scientific data" to support their version of the "true" diet.

ROFL, I'd love to see the "hard data" this Russian scholar used for his "analysis". I mean, there is science and there is science, but as some point there is also BS.

[/quote]
Will you have a small spot on your property where a southern transplant might pitch a well armed tent and sip water from your pond? [/quote]

Sure! Always room for one more. (Long guns only, please, in our generally peaceable kingdom.)

Though having the Queen on your money may take some getting used to.

I guess we are just going to have to keep waiting for those flying cars...

That doesn't sound half bad. Don't worry folks, I'll put in a good word for anyone wanting to immigrate to Texas!

-Blast

Agreed, I'll help Blast with the good word.

I've enjoyed the discussion and it has got me thinking about prior reports. Evidently, this is the fourth publication of its kind. So I'm trying to see how close the previous editions have come in their predictions. It has already been pointed out that these are the same guys that said Iraq had WMDs...

I'm willing to bet that the Farmers Almanac has been more accurate...

But if the USA was to break up wouldn't Mexico want to get Texas back again...Just as the Ruskies would attempt to get Alaska back again. Of course before the breakup the Pacific region would most likely have been sold off to the Chinese for debt cancellation.

Hmm, even lower prices for Chinese imports, opportunity to learn Mandarin, and maybe dual citizenship. Sounds like a win-win for everybody.

I think it's more likely that Texas would take over Mexico.

-Blast