What's your most likely SHTF situation?

Different parts of the country experience different disaster scenarios - the west coast has earthquakes, the southwest has wildfires, the norhtern states have blizzards, the midwest has tornadoes, the southeast has hurricanes, etc. Then there are general problems like getting lost on a road trip or having a vehicular malfunction.

Each of these problems requires some incident-specific gear and supplies in a home, vehicle, or portable PSK and FAK.

So, inspired by mrwilmoth's EDC thread, which I found a lot of fun and very informative, here's a new topc: What are your most likely SHTF situations, and what gear and supplies do you have in your various kits and BOBs to tailor them to those situations?

------------------------------------------
I'll start with mine:

In Maryland our disaster scenarios are fewer and farther between than in other parts of the country, and they're mostly weather-related.

Storms
In my part of the state, around the city of Baltimore, we sometimes have heavy storms that bring wind and rain, only occasionally getting rough enough to produce tornadoes. The most common damage caused by these storms is power outages from downed lines, and flooding from backed up storm drains, both of which are fairly short-term problems that usually last less than 3 days. The last hurricane to directly hit us caused a lot of flooding in low areas from storm surge, and lots of power outages, but my power stayed out less than 12 hours and I never lost water and had no trouble getting out of my building and complex.

I'm on high ground, and in a 3rd floor apartment, so I don't have to worry about flooding, but for extended power outages I keep flashlights, candles, a portable TV, and plenty of extra batteries. I also keep a few gallons of bottled water in case of water main breaks (a possibility even in non-disaster times), some canned foods like soups and beans, and a sterno-fueled mini-stove to heat them.

Snow
Winter sometimes brings heavy snowstorms to Baltimore. In this part of the country, any snow accumulation greater than 18" is commonly called a "blizzard" (even though it's not, it's just a heavy snowfall,) and effectively shuts down the city for at least a day, sometimes 2-3.

Again, the most likely problems I would experience from these storms would be power loss from downed lines, water loss from frozen mains, and inability to get out of my complex for a while until the roads and my parking lot get plowed, and I dig out my truck (no, I don't have 4wd.) But the worst storm we've had in my lifetime left me stuck in my apartment for a grand total of 36 hours, and I didn't even lose power or water. However, if I had, the same stuff I listed above would come into play, along with some extra blankets and clothing.

Big freeze
Here is where I take my biggest risk - everything in my apartment is electric, so if power goes out I not only lose lights, I also lose my heat and my kitchen stove. But I DESPISE kerosene heaters and refuse to own one (my brother is a firefighter and has many horror stories about "safe" kerosene heaters burning homes to the ground and killing people), so if I lose power for an extended time in cold weather, I will have to rely on clothing and blankets for warmth until I can get out. Again, roads around here are typically clear within 24 hours of even a major snow storm, and I can always dig out my truck and sit in it for a while to warm up, even if I can't get it out of the lot (yes, I know to make sure the exhaust pipe is completely clear to avoid exhaust gas build-up inside the vehicle.)

Accidental Man-made disasters
Baltimore has had a few major fires, water main breaks, and chemical leaks over the years that have caused isolated neighborhoods to be evacuated and closed off; these incidents also affected me only slightly (mostly by traffic disruption), but would affect me more if they were closer. In the event of an evacuation, I will simply grab my laptop bag and, if I have time, pack a bag with some clothing and personal items not found in a survival BOB and head out for my parents or a friends house till the crisis passes.

Deliberate Man-made disasters
I live and work far enough from the city center of Baltimore that any terror attacks or civil unrest will most likely not directly affect me except to make it difficult to get to my parents, who live on the other side of town. And anything that happens in D.C. would barely affect me at all, except for the irrational panic that inevitably sets in during times of crisis; 9/11 hit D.C. pretty hard but I was not affected much at all by any of the direct consequenses that day.

A terror attack would most likely occur in the downtoan area, almost 20 miles from me, so my best preparation is to stay where I am and not panic. The idea of a riot or terror attack in Cockeysville is ludicrous, to say the least.

However, the idea of a workplace shooting is not. Again, this is an area where I choose to incur greater risk by not preparing as much - I know my workplace well enough to know potential hiding spots and evac routes, and I know how to lock the main door to our office space. But if I got trapped by a lunatic with a gun (likely since my office space has only one door) and had no other choice but to defend myself, my options are severly limited. "Weapons" are forbidden in our workplace, so the only weapons I could improvise would be workplace sharps such as scissors and Xactos, plus the big kitchen knife I keep in my desk for bagels and birthday cakes, and any heavy object I could use as a club or missile like a computer, book, full bottle of water, etc.

Road trip
I don't travel much, and when I do it's usually not far from home. I am in the process of putting together a complrehensive PSK for my truck in case I do somehow stray into the wilds and have a breakdown, but mostly I keep a FAK, some bottled water, and a few tools in my truck to supplement my EDC tools and flashlight.

Well, that's about it for my SHTF scenarios and prep. What are yours?

I live in a large urban area so these would be mine:

1.) Terror attacks
2.) Black-Outs
3.) Earthquakes: not likely but you never know
4.) Blizzards

I've lived through most of these and have gotten by with these absolute basics:

1.) Pair of sneakers/comfort shoes: In urban (NYC) shtf scenarios you must absolutely walk home. No busses, no trains, and no cars (street light power failures will have you sitting in your car for hours and hours)- cars jammed for miles.

2.) Flashlight: If you walk home in a black out or after-dark terror scenario, street light will not be working. A flashlight is indespensible. Flashlight and LED micro light too.

3.) Portable Radio: This is of MAJOR importance. We live in the days of iPods, which have no radio. A radio will allow you to hear what's going on if you are in the middle of the street and can't get on the subway or into your place of business. Radio, radio, radio.

4.) Charged cell phone

Good thoughts.

I am in very similar circumstances to you, except MUCH farther from the ocean, and the chance of a big storm like a hurricane is very remote (been over 50 years since one got this far inland). Should be adequate warning time.

However, I am on the tip of a tornado belt, but they have never quite made it to my street! The nature of local tornadoes is they form and dissipate extremely rapidly, there will be no warning. I have no defense except to keep my eyes open.

For winter stuff, I have lots of propane and propane camping appliances, as well as stored water/food/etc. Can use relatively safely inside with fresh air. Gas heating, which may work when the power's off (not the fan)...I hate to admit I don't really know, your post made me think of that. This winter stuff is by far the most likely urban survival scenario for me.

It's not so bad when power fails in the summer, it may be unpleasant but not very threatening (to me). My friends think I'm nuts, but for me it's like an impromptu camping trip... We are geared up for this one!

Now the biggie. There is a nuclear plant (actually, 2 of them) maybe 4 miles away. And another maybe 20 miles away. They use a different tech than U.S. plants, so they won't melt down in the traditional sense, nor "explode". What they will do is release a very radioactive cloud, and the danger zone will depend on the wind. The local plan is evacuation, but there are just so many problems with that, besides that there's no way to know exactly which way is best to go until the time it happens, and that may change as the wind does. Road capacity is already stretched in normal times, never mind when everybody wants to use them at once. Again, tough to make personal plans for this one, except to have the BOBs ready. Battery (weather) radios to keep abreast, assume all power will be out, will have to wing it. For evacuation, very fast response will be paramount to beat the crowds. Since this sort of emergency has never happened at one of this type of nuclear facility, nobody knows exactly what will happen, they just think they do...

A real good thing is to always keep the "escape vehicle" gas tank as full as possible. Running may be the best strategy for the more serious situations around here. You do not want to have to compete for gas when everyone in an urban area needs it at once.

I assume we are talking about specifics here, so I'll go in order of likelihood - and I'm thinking SHTF is REALLY serious, so I'm leaving out normal nasties:

1) Monster Winter Storm
2) Tornado
3) Flood
4) Nuclear power plant accident

I'm not ranking it, but an extended energy outage, such as gas, NG or electricity, would make for some pretty nasty living conditions in the winter. And it would be certainly uncomfortable in the 95 deg. F/70% humidity Illinois summers.

I'm even less concerned about any sort of attack, as there really isn't a ton of critical infrastructure or high-value targets in my area other than the nukes.

I haven't tailored anything, other than leaning heavily toward "winter storm" scenarios to make sure we have plenty of food and water on hand in case things freeze up and we can't get to a store (or they are cleaned out due to delivery issues). For floods I should probably consider keeping some water and gear in upstairs and maybe get an inflatable boat. But where I live there hasn't been a flood in 50 years since the Army Corp of Engineers built a dam system. This year was scary though - we had some rains that pushed it to capacity... and they are 50 years old.

As for the vehicle situations, I rarely consider those "SHTF", but maybe I should rethink that for a winter scenario. I do carry quite a bit of supplies and I beef them up regularly.

I carry quite a bit EDC, including a man-bag that goes with me pretty much everywhere. And my vehicles are loaded up fairly well - but this reminds me to get some MREs for the car-packs.

Interesting Topic,

Where I am in Northern Ontario the winter weather is my biggest problem. I do not believe that my forced air gas furnace would run without electricity (no fan or ignition) so that means I would need auxillary heat or a generator to run the furnace.

It would be easy to convince my wife that we need a nice propane fireplace in the living room but a generator would be a tougher sell; she would see it as another toy for me to use in the bush.

We could "hole-up" at home for a long time if we had heat, but I really need to work on my family BOB as it is sadly lacking.

Mike

P.S. We did have a moderate earthquake here at 6.30am JANUARY 1, 2000, that millennium shaker sure woke everyone up, last one was in 1935!

Since power failures in the winter seems to be a common scenario so far, anybody know if there's a way to keep a natural gas furnace safely going without power? The fan wouldn't work, but at least it would be something. You could light it manually, and then with the battery-powered thermostat set high, would it keep fired up? I should know this. The worst/longest winter power outage we had, I was not at my home (big ice storm) and forget what we did, besides cooking in the fireplace. Thanks.

[Edit: maybe this should be a different thread in the campfire section?]

My plans are for (in order of most to least likely):

1. Accident in the woods
I think this is my most likely cause for alarm. The hazards I face include abandonned oil wells, alligators, poisonous snakes, feral hogs and injuries like broken bones.
My precautions include giving DW detailed travel plans and carrying the proper gear/clothing. I also practice many bushcrafting skills (edible plants, fire making, etc...).

2. Hurricanes
Houston is due for another big one. Precautions include custom window covers, plenty of food/water/batteries, emergency power sources, great neighbors.

3. Flooding
Our house is in a 500-yr flood zone. We have insurance and a written plan on what to do if flooding occurs.

4. Tornado
We are screwed.

5. Power outage
Battery powered tv, radios, backup power supplies for fans.

6. Stranded while travelling (local)
Flooding can trap me at work or DW while she's out and about with the kids. Both cars are stocked with food, snacks, tools, mess kits, personal hygine kits, maps, etc...
In my office I have assorted supplies stocked away to make an overnight stay in my office comfortable.

7. Stranded while travelling (USA)
When travelling dosmestically for work I carry maps of the area along with a country map. Thanks to Wildman, I have built a "scrounger's tool kit" along with my "Get Me Home Gear" which includes a small radio, flashlight, rope, knife, first aid kit, AMK heatsheet, etc...

8. Stranded while travelling (international)
Maps, phrasebook, addresses & phone numbers of American consulates, money, anti-diahrrea meds, water purification tablets plus scrounger and GMHG kits (except for knife when in Mexico).

9. Riots
Good neighbors, respectable firepower, plenty of poison ivy

10. Terrorist attack
Small to zero chance of being caught in the attack. Economic downturn is biggest worry. Living debt-free except for mortage, have saved up good emergency slush-fund to get us through. Food harvested from garden and assorted edible landscaping.

-Blast

I looked at my own furnace a couple years ago and after the power enters it it goes to a relay for the fan and into a 24v transformer. It seems that all the control circuitry in it is 24v so it could easily be battery powered. I thought about maybe a smaller 24v secondary fan mounted below the main fan might get some airflow, then if you added in a duct valve or two you could run a while from battery.

Living in SoCal the most likely scenarios would be earthquake and wildfire. I keep backpacks in all my vehicles with some bottled water, power bars, extra clothing, FAK, TP, tools, flashlight, etc. I keep a bunch of earthquake bug-in supplies at the house. Then I always have my EDC - cell phone, knives, lights, etc.

It's hard to get the rest of the family to take it too seriously, but they at least EDC cell phones and lights, and they know where the kits are.

Kevin B.

^ Thanks, it's starting to come back to me. I actually did the wiring for the electrics on my furnace...it was 20+ years ago and the memory ain't getting any better...

IIRC there's a 24V-operated gas valve in there. It needs to have power to stay open (partly a safety feature). I can manually switch the fan off, so yeah, getting 24VAC to the furnace at the right place at a minimum would be needed to keep it going. With the fan switched off, perhaps even a 12V (car) battery connected to a smallish inverter whose output is jury-rigged to the (isolated) 120VAC furnace input could work.

I am comfortable working with electric stuff, it's my job (but furnaces aren't!), so I can do things relatively safely, please ignore this stuff if you don't follow it exactly. You obviously shouldn't screw with gas furnaces ever, but in a serious emergency it's good to know an option...

I'm working on installing central air in my house now and was thinking about using an cord and plug in for the service disconnect at the furnace end so I could unplug it and plug in into a generator. But my electrician neighbor says that won't meet code so I have to put in a switch. he says a normal light switch is fine, which seems silly to me as that would be much easier to bump and turn on while working on the furnace than an unplugged cord. So much for code helping.
I think hooking up a power source to the furnace would be much safer than trying to light it manually. There are two valves at least in mine, the 24v one that turns on gas to the pilot then the pilot ignites and heats up the thermocouple which turns on the main burner. So if something should happen to put out the flame the thermocouple would shut the main off and the control is set up so any time the small valve is open it constantly fires the ignitor so eliminate any chance gas build up.
The bad thing with inverters is ac motors don't run real well from them and they are quite inefficient (under 80%)

^ The light switch for furnace power is typically installed near the ceiling, least around here, so it's pretty hard to accidentally flick it, I can't even reach mine without a step-stool. The furnace side of that switch wiring, once disconnected from the switch, is where I'd feed in the 110/120VAC power from the inverter or generator.

As far as the fan motor, it would suck a lot of power. That's why I wired mine so I could switch the fan right off, that is not the "normal" way to wire around here...normal here is so that the fan is always on, on "low speed" even when the thermo says it should be off. This was costing me too much, I estimated $25/month 20 years ago.

Also, I completely shut off the gas to my furnace during the warm season (saves about $60 a month from the stupid pilot and HIGH gas prices now), so I don't mind re-lighting it, it's not hard.

Are you getting the idea I'm a bit cheap here? Oh well, now we can call it my stylish contribution to reduce global warming...

I'm in the southwest, but far enough into suburbia that wildfires will probably not be a direct threat. Wildfires usually start in the back-country here and give lots of warning so that I can repack the truck, fill the gas tank and basically take my time getting ready. I store lots of stuff in the back of my truck while wildfires threaten.

Earthquakes are what really have the potential to affect me IF it strikes close and is big. We feel small ones all the time. If it's big enough it has the potential to shut down highways and drop overpasses and bridges. There's been a program to reinforce the overpasses/bridges, but who's to say if they can really withstand the Big One. For that reason I continually have a 96 hour kit and camping gear in the back of my truck; I can hang out and wait for the situation to clear up no matter where I am when it hits. That said, the major faults are a good distance from here so for me the big issue is infrastructure -- water and electricity. We can go about a week with the water on hand. For electricity I'm looking at a small solar portable system to charge my laptop and batteries.

Terrorist: I work on what would be considered a hard-target so it's again a matter of infrastructure. See earthquakes.

Sounds like an old furnace, mine the fan only runs when the furnace is in use and only draws a couple A, then the pilot is electrically lit each cycle. Only issue with mine is the previous owner hired a "professional" to install it and put one in that is about twice the size thats needed so it short cycles. I got it working better by adjusting the thermostat to widen the temperature range so it runs longer each cycle and waits longer to cycle so it compensates some.

They say running the fan continuously, here, gives the best year-round heating/cooling efficiency. I dunno, but it sure costs more.

Yeah you're right, it is a 20+ year old furnace, and does not have sensible things like the way your pilot works, mine is continuously lit. Generally though, in the heating season, the furnace isn't off for huge amounts of time when I'm at home, it's when the furnace is "off" that the pilot sucks a surprising amount of gas. I'm waiting for the furnace to die, but these dumb old simple beasts take a lot of killing.


One good thing about having nuke plants nearby is it's extremely unlikely to be bothered by an earthquake :), that's why they built them here. And the lake (for cooling) too. They say the exposed "dangerous" parts of the nuclear plants can withstand a direct hit by a 747. I don't recall reading about a test of that... There are 24/7 armed guards and SWAT teams. You'd almost have to be an insider/employee to do damage from inside. Nobody is allowed alone and unmonitored into a critical area. Which is not to say things still couldn't happen purposely...or accidentally. I have the suspicion we'll all be seeing more nuke plants in the near future.

Have you considered a set of gas logs that don't need to be vented? It would eliminate any heat loss through the flue. They draw no power & will keep a good size house warm.

Here in Baton Rouge the most likely SHTF level problems would be:

1) Hurricane -
Been there/Done that. Got the hurricane supplies pretty much stocked up and have a punchlist for when hurricane watches and warnings are issued. For my family, hurricane season is interwoven into how we live our daily lives. Though I would like to get a generator though (just in case Santa is listening).

2) Flooding -
My neighborhood is pretty high and dry but some of the area streets are prone to flooding with sudden heavy (4 + inches) in a short time. Fortunately I've lived here for a while so I know where the deep spots are and how to get around them. (Age and treachory always overcomes youth and skill).


3) Plant accident (chemical ones not the pretty ones with chlorophyl and flowers) -
We're far enough away that any gas release has plenty of time to disperse before getting to us so when one of the oodles of chem plants around our area has an accident with chemical release the most likely problem would be traffic getting home

4) Tornado -
Doesn't happen very often in my neck of the woods and there are enough trailer parks scattered far enough away from my house to draw the big twisties away from me.

Seriously though we would be screwed.

i think a big one that you may have forgotten about is APG up in Harford County. being the #1 stockpiling site for all kinds of nasty-no-good chemicals and all the weapons testing being done here, it certainly poses a rather large threat.

i seem to remember hearing a while ago that APG would probably be the #2 target for nuclear attack back in the cold war days, with DC being #1. something tells me that probably hasnt changed much.

Primarily wildfires and earthquakes, with the potential for flooding in the winter thrown in, too. Any of the above three could lead to an extended power outage.

I try to keep lots of bottled water, canned goods, and long-lasting flashlights (w/lots of spare batteries) on hand.

Earthquake.

I live in an apt. building built in the 1950's with an overhang parking garage (the worst design imaginable). I try and park on the street but most of the time there's no space so I have to park under my apt. (literally directly underneath my bedroom.) I keep water and a kit in the car and of course the usual home provisions but because earthquakes are so unpredictable I try to keep my plans flexible. I'm working off the premise that when TSHTF, if my apartment is still standing, the rest should be relatively easy.

Prevailing winds in Maryland come out of the northwest October through June, and out of the southwest the rest of the year.

This means that whatever nasty chemicals that might leak out of APG will not travel due west to Cockeysville or southwest to Baltimore or D.C. through the air.

Of course, anything that leaks out of APG could contaminate ground water in the immediate vicinity and probably leak directly into the Chesapeake (a lovely prospect considering the amount of food that comes from the Bay.) But since I'm due west of APG, I'm upstream in the water system too, so I'm not worried about direct chemical exposure from that direction.

Nuclear attack by a foreign government (Russia, China, or North Korea) is extremely unlikely these days. The bigger threat comes from pissant rogue nations like Iran getting their hands on NBC material and smuggling it into the country as a terrorist attack. But an attack of that nature would be limited in scope and duration, and most likely directed at targets in D.C. that are 50-70 miles away from where I live. It's unlikely that an NBC attack of that nature on a target in D.C. would even make it to Baltimore, much less up here to Cockeysville.

Fortunately, Cockeysville is not only upwind of the major targets in Baltimore and D.C. for most of the year, but also upstream in the water system.

Mind, I'm not trying to say that I'm safe here. There is no such thing as safe anywhere; there is only more safe or less safe. All I'm saying is that the most likely bad things to happen would most likely not directly affect me so quickly that I wouldn't have some time to prepare or evacuate. So instead, I choose to concentrate my efforts at preparing for those things that are most likely to directly affect me - bad storms (summer or winter) and power outages.

However, if Al Quieda comes marching up I-83 and invades Cockeysville, I do posess certain, shall we say, tools of an offensive nature which I can use to overcome the challenge.

No matter where you live in the United States, you have the following "most likely" scenarios near where you live.

1. Weather Event. Flood, Freeze, Wind - whatever. The risk of natural hazards is by far the greatest threat you face in real life, and is the one that is easiest to plan for, because you know what can happen. All weather situations have the same basic threats - no electric, transportation and emergency services limited to non-existent, physical damage to your home or workplace.
2. Seismic Event. For the West coast, this is a known risk.
3. Wildfire - again a west coast thing.

Now let's look at the far less likely events that we worry about incessantly and far too much.

A) Major Chemical Leak. The nightmare scenario was Bhopal, India, with over 15,000 dead from a toxic gas cloud. But here in the USA, we're a bit more prepared. Here's what I mean:
Search the news for hazmat incidents .

You see? It's not that common - and when it does happen, it's highly localized.

B) Terrorist Attack. Did you know that in October 2001, more people were killed in highway accidents than in the September 11th Attacks?
Did you know that if you add up all the fatalities WORLDWIDE from terrorist attacks from January 1 2001 to July 10 2007, you have LESS PEOPLE KILLED than in just ONE AVERAGE YEAR in highway accidents in the USA (39,244 vs. about 44,000) See this link. . Yes, a terrorist attack is scary, yes, it's something that we need to think about. But you know what? I'd worry more about going to the hospital or ladders. .

C) Civil Unrest caused by (name your scenario).
Well, as I was born just before some of the most violent times in the USA social unrest with the nation's capital in dissary as well as other places. We all know about the Katrina Debacle. But what about the countless other things that were supposed to be happening in the moments when the proverbial you know what hit the fan? Over and over again, I see the majority of people working together to solve problems. Yes, things can get a bit scary at times, and no I don't like to think about what it will be like when a car bomb goes off in New York, especially if I'm there at the time. But I honestly have to say that I'm more concerned with the concept of "civil unrest" in terms of long-term economic problems caused by environmental changes that are happening now (why is not a subject for this forum). I have long ago come to the conclusion that fiscal preparedness is probably more critical than any bottled water or MRE's, because that's something that will be a real issue for all of us no matter what happens in the future. Being economically prepared for the future - ensuring you've saved enough, hedged against inflation and that you have managed your money means more than having a compass to find your way out of the woods.

If you want to really study a middle-class enconomy that has see not only the S hitting the F, but the aftermath, have a look at what happened in Argentina . For a darker, more pessimistic view of an economic and societal collapse, look at any of the former Soviet states.

Anyway, what I suggest - wear your seatbelt, slow down, cancel the pay tv services and put the money you would have spent on that into long-term investments.

(shhhhh.....MSP...this is maryland after all.)

the threat of all the nasty NBC stuff emmanating from APG/DC is quite the concern for me as i'm MAYBE 5 miles from APG. i only take solace in the fact that when it hits, i probably wont even know it.

enjoy nuclear winter suckers!!!

<3

At least nuclear winter would cancel out the effects of global warming.

I sleep better in the cold than in the heat, anyway.

Worst thing that ever happened was the electricity was out for a couple of days bacuase of a hurricane. A few trees on the roads as well.We even watched the news on TV with a car battery.

There`s enough dry wood for 5-6 winters under the balcony.

There`s always enough canned veggies and ham around anyway.

Clean water is pentiful all around in any case. If it was ever contaminated there`s a ton of soda, wine and frozen/bottled fruit juices in the basement.

1. Harsh winter weather, which can include blizzards and ice storms, all of which can and do cause extended power outages. Not so much a problem at home because we have a fireplace and about three weeks' supply of wood, plenty of food and stored water, warm clothing, blankets, battery-powerd lights and radios, etc. Also very good neighbors. More of a problem on the road because if I get stranded in the Forester it means the emergency crews aren't getting around either, so the winter car kit definitely includes blankets, food, water battery powered lights and radio, FAK and extra winter clothing and boots.

2. Non-weather related power outages like the big one we had here in the northeast/midwest a few years ago. Usually a warm-weather event, but ditto the supplies above.

3. Pandemic flu - definitely a bug-in event, but possibly protracted (21 days or more). Working on solutions for extended winter heating, otherwise same as above.

4. Nuclear fallout - there is a nuclear plant 30 miles away, but its upwind, so there may be a need to BO on short notice. The BO Bag has everything in it I can think of to allow the family to survive on the road for 5-plus-days.


Frank2135

In this scenario, I would avoid using a flashlight if at all possible. I wouldn't want to have a beacon pointing everyone to me. Even on the darkest nights (new moon), there's enough light to walk carefully once your eyes are dark-adapted. Having night vision-safe light for quick checks of street signs or map would be good though.

Reasonably up there, -for any Region Nationally, (Even Extranationally, -as Recently in Britain), -is another Major Terroristic Strike! At Risk of somewhat Discomfiting or Offending what Minimalists or Naysayers as we have here, on that!

Come On!, -The Likes of those who did the original 9-11, -*Are* Going to sometime or other, -Try Again! Indeed they Many Times have Already! Our often Top Notch Goaltending, -has so often Deflected their Slap Shots and Power Plays Back! But not even the Top 5 NHL Goaltenders of All Time!, -Have a Perfect Record! Recent Indications, -certainly Not among many also recent False Alarms, -have Shown some Real Drives at our Net! Ditto our Great Ally in Western Freedom Britain! They *Are* going to Keep on Power Playing at our Net! They *Are* Going to sometime Get Another One *In and Through*! Some Real People Americans or Other Westerners can be Caught in that Goal or Net! Such Ones just can be any given Ones of us! Or that of our Loved Ones!

This may yet not be the Top Ranking thing on any given Region's List. But it still, -from the Angles I have relayed, -Ranks rather Well Up There! For Any given Region! (Notwithstanding that Locations say in the Boondocks, -certainly Ranks Less in Possibility, -than say New York). Be Aware and Prepare accordingly.

I'll be the First to now Admit, -that I do not have a suggested Equipment and Preparation List for such Possibilities, -at the Ready, -at this Time.

They're Going to Keep On Driving at our Net! Come the Heck On! If you Think or Entertain otherwise!

I'm not disagreeing with you. I just don't see the target in my particular neck of the woods, with the exception of a nuclear power plant 30 miles away. It has always been very secure, and appears more so now. I have a BO plan in place if anything happens to it.

Aside from that, I'm not sure how to prepare for a terrorist attack in my "region" as opposed to preparing for a winter storm or a pandemic flu epidemic. We have to be prepare to survive the aftermath of a destructive event in either case, at least as I see it.

Frank2135

I Disagree Somewhat With Your Assessment.

Certainly, terror attacks in other countries are up. And I sure as heck agree that the zealots who perpetrated 9/11 have plenty of fans out there, still plotting to do bad things, not to mention the rotten, lowlife, loonie SOBs like Tim Mcviegh who we tend to lump together as "homegrown terrorists." Yes, there is a risk.

But the risk of a terror attack in the US is not "Reasonably Up There." Statistically, it's actually a pretty low possibility compared with weather- or geological-related disasters like hurricanes, wildfires, blizzards, earthquakes, or even tornadoes.

I'm not saying that it's impossible, and I'm not saying that it's not going to happen; eventually, I'm sure that Osama and his cowardly buddies will cook up some way to send some fanatical dupes to do their dirty work for them and perpetrate an attack on the US. But focussing on something that is low on the liklihood scale diverts attention from those things that are high on the liklihood scale, like those I listed above.

After all, when was the last successful major terrorist attack inside the US?

Here in urban Los Angeles, most SHTF situations we've faced were vastly overrated. Earthquake, riot, wildfire get lots of airplay, but have surprisingly little effect on the majority of people.

Outside a really large earthquake, or a terrorist attack of extremely large proportion, the best thing to do is not freak out.

Terrorism threat should be put into perspective. Even if the US managed to sustain a 9/11 sized casualty amount from terrorism once a year, one's chances of dying by terrorist would still be dwarfed by one's chances of dying in a traffic accident.

I agree. If you read the current NIE, al-Qaida isn't a "most likely" threat. Granted al-Qaida's threat is real and could bring massive loss of life and infrastructure if they were successful. It will be with us for years to come, but weather events (including earthquakes) are more likely.

What, the state fair doesn't seem like a prize target to you? What about the Wegmans in Hunt Valley? That place is packed on the weekends.

I live in Lutherville.

In Houston, I think the biggest threat of SHTF is probably social unrest. Whether due to shortages of gasoline which could immobilize large portions of the population or due to a Rodney King style race riot, I think social unrest is the biggest threat. Dealing with hungry people with no transportation in a city designed specifically for cars would be catestrophic. But we live far enough from the city proper to be able to avoid dealing with localized civil unrest.

Secondary threats I would consider would be a pipeline explosion or a train carrying hazardous material derailing. These are threats I have no control over and short of keeping the car gassed up and my escape routes covered can't do much to prepare for.

I no longer count Hurricanes as an emergency anymore. They're similar to snow storms in Wyoming, they're going to happen and you prepare for them every year. Again the biggest threat from civil unreast in the aftermath.


Going to school in Wyoming, the biggest threat is from a train derailing in town. The major problem with that is it eliminates three of the four routes out of town. Everyone east of the railroad tracks (most people including me) would have to evacuate east on I-80 and the grid lock would be unimaginable. A potential solution would be owning a motorcycle since that could allow me to trickle through traffic I'd be unable to circumvent in a car.

Living in Northern California my most likely SHTF are.

1. Fire
2. Flood
3. Earthquake

No matter where you live a most common SHTF scenario would be financial problems.

With the crowds the Fair has been drawing the last few years, I wouldn't consider it too big a target.

Wegmans, on the other hand, does draw a big crowd, but it's so far out in the hinterlands of the area that I doubt any Ter'rist will ever hear about it.