What 2 million people evacuating is like

Just out of curiosity, after watching gridlock traffic on the news all day, I did a little calculation regarding the evacuation. Assuming 2 million people, riding three to a car, each vehicle occupying about 20 feet of space (15 feet of car + 5 feet of space to the car ahead), that equals a single lane of traffic just over 2500 miles long. Break that down to the 14 available lanes out of the city of Houston, and the backup stretches theoretically 180 miles in each direction (W, NW, N, and NE). I won't even try to guess how much fuel that has used up. People are giving up and turning around to go back home, so at least they'll be in a house instead of their car when the storm hits tomorrow. Scary! <img src="/images/graemlins/frown.gif" alt="" />

It's similar to yelling fire in a crowded theater. I am sure the feds are learning from all of this. It's too bad some have died (the bus fire) in the process.

It is unavoidable, in my opinion. I don't feel that it is possible to evacuate that many people in a day unless you use the railroads and commadeer EVERYTHING that resembles a truck. And even then, none of this silliness about your TV going with you- I saw people loading that kind of thing on MSNBC last night and sputtered for 30 minutes. People, pets, supplies and critical records, that's it.

Even then, I still don't plan on less than 1 million every 24 hours, between the fuel needs and the roads.

I think your going to see them yell fire for the next few storms, it usually happens that way with anything. If the people in charge get criticised for not doing enough then the next couple times they will do too much. Then people will start to think they are crying wolf and they will swing back to being cautious about sounding the alarm and then people will get hurt and they will go overboard again.

And just think the people leaving are not in panic mode....imagine if they had zero notice as in a terrorist attack? No way that many vehicles/people could "get out of dodge" it would be utter mayhem.

I can't even imagine doing it in a week! In today's Denver Post there was a quote from some woman caught up in the traffic jam, "I've never seen such poor planning". My first thought was, "Theirs, or yours?" Apparently traffic jams and gasoline shortages were a surprize to this person. This has definitely cemented a concept into my mind. Don't be the last one to try to leave!

After watching the evacuations for Ivan, Katrina and Rita, I have come to the conclusion that interstates and major highways are NOT the roads to use. Get some good maps and/or a good mapping GPS (and extra gas cans) and take to the backroads. (45 MPH on a 250 mile backroad route beats 2 MPH on a 100 mile interstate route.)

One of my sister's and her family evacuated from Port Aransas (just north of Corpus Christi) heading towards El Paso. I pray that they are not stuck in traffic somewhere...


JimJr

Does anyone have any reports of what the backroads actually look like? Are they jammed as well or are they moving?

Report on talk radio put the trip from Houston to dallas 20 hours on the freeway, 6.5 on the backroads. They have a reporter there.

> People, pets, supplies and critical records, that's it.

Why? If you're taking a car, you might as well load it up, surely? It won't take any more space on the road, and I doubt a few extras would affect fuel consumption.

People within the city limits trying to find a back way out of Houston are finding worse gridlock on the secondary roads. Everybody thinks that they are more clever than the next guy and can navigate around "those stupid people stuck in traffic". Not going to happen - you just aren't going to get out, period. My idea of using the railroad right of way to get out of town is starting to look better and better to me! <img src="/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />

Actually, I think it depends. From what I've read in the past, normally, evacuations occur in stages. Coastal areas get the word first, then maybe 12-24 hours later the next inland area gets the nod, and so on. Obviously, the idea is to give the most vulnerable people a clear shot at evacuating. According to this model, the last people ordered to evacuate are/may be the least at risk, relatively speaking. Also, in the interim, the hurricane very well may have veered off in another direction.

It's unclear whether this staggered evacuation occurred for Rita because it sure seemed like a simultaneous stampede inland by 2-3 million all at once. Has anyone heard any estimate of how many people on the road are from areas that were NOT encouraged to evacuate? I imagine that a ton of people are fleeing "just in case".

Word has it here that Hw 46 north of I10 is still flowing pretty well. It is an alternative route over to other, bigger roads. Haven't been there, don't want to be.

It took my sister about 33 hours to get from Galveston to Dallas on I-45, though that also includes her pulling off the road to take an hour-long nap a couple of times and her waiting in line for over half an hour to refuel. She said the first 30 miles (to one of the ring roads south of Houston) took about 45 minutes, and the last 170 miles to Dallas took about 3-1/2 hours ... it was the 100 miles in the middle (around Houston) that were horrendous. Oh, and she's pretty well "equipped to survive" because she's big on camping and climbing and such -- she had her tent, sleeping bag, thermarest, lantern, etc. along with her photos, CPU and other irreplaceable stuff. But even she ran out of water about halfway through that trek -- she started with about 7 gallons, but ended up putting about 2 into Wally (the dog, who has a heavy black coat and was suffering because it was 100 degrees and the a/c was off to conserve gas), 3 into the car (which kept overheating because ditto), and 2 into herself.

And to answer Arney's question, it looked to me as if the folks in and around Houston didn't bother waiting for the coastal residents to have a clear shot at getting inland, before stampeding onto the roads as well. Don't even get me started on the idiocy of the state/local authorities in delaying the implementation of contra-flow on I-45 and I-10 ... and then only starting it (at least on I-45) far north of Houston, leaving miles of empty highway on the south-bound side when the north-bound side was literally a parking lot.

What worries me...In the Phoenix area, which is just a little behind Houston in size, I think Houston area is No.5 and Phoenix is the 6th largest city in the country. There are only 2 Interstate lanes out in any direction. I-17 North turns into 2 lanes out while still in the city limits, as does I-10 E and W. The other major highways are the same with some going to one lane in each direction after leaving the fringes of the city. The good news is that there are few circumstances likely to happen around here that would require an evacuation. That is good, because after seeing what happened in TX, LA area this week, we'd never have a chance of getting out!! A real issue is the type of scenario that may require a mass exodus from the Phoenix valley would not come with a 3 to 5 day advance warning! In summer it would not be possible to stay in this valley very long if there was an extended loss of electricity. Yet, no one could effectively go north, which is the only way to cooler areas.
I guess a good generator would be nice, but without power around there would be no way to procure more fuel. The stations would not be open or able to pump. I guess this is all the reasons that I desire to retire and do it to a cooler area with far, far less population!! Cheers!

I strongly suggest that you throw open your windows and learn to live w/o AC for a day. I was recently w/o electricity for an extended time, and although I have a lot of experience living rough, it opened my eyes to what it is like to live rough in place in civilzation.

"I imagine that a ton of people are fleeing "just in case". "

You are exactly right. No one in my area of town (far northwest Harris County, out side of the city limits of Houston) had any business evacuating. With the exception of small areas along certain bayous that have been known to flood in extreme events, most neighborhoods could have handled a category 4 storm.

I think many people have had a lot of trouble seeing the images from Katrina and misapplying them to their own situations. They don't seem to understand that storm surge doesn't happen in NW Harris County. Images of the homes within a mile of the beach in Mississippi, totally shattered, don't apply to your home 75 miles from the Gulf. Images of people on their rooftops after hacking through the shingles from the inside because there was 20' of water don't apply if you live at 41' above sea level. My wife, a school teacher, said that her 7th graders were worrying about the levees breaking. Surely their parents have explained that there are no levees out here - or do their parents not know this? We ain't got no levees. We don't need no steenkin levees!

A different perspective...

I'm well inland (Orlando, FL). Storm surge (hopefully <img src="/images/graemlins/smile.gif" alt="" /> ) isn't a factor. But I may still evacuate (or try to) for the next close call for two reasons. One, forecasts still have too much error to bet your life on. Second, Tornados.

Last summer, I saw how errors of just a few miles were the difference between some shingle damage and complete destruction. And for a day or so after the eye had passed we were still getting tornado warnings for the storms in the rain bands. Most of the houses here (including mine) lack basements. Doesn't do any good to survive the hurricane winds if an embedded tornado takes out your house.

But then I have to weigh this against getting stuck in an evacuation. So... I dunno. But I can see why some of them may have left even if they didn't appear to need to.

Unfortunately, human nature being what it is, I fear that if another hurricane makes landfall this season, people will remember the horrors of the last hurricane (namely Rita), and remember the 100-mile traffic jams, people running out of gas, a busload of elderly people burning up, and decide that evacuating is not worth it and try to ride it out--even though they REALLY should.

Anyone know how effective these refueling missions were that I heard about on the news? Some gas tankers went to gas stations along the evacuation routes, while others went to give gas directly to motorists on the highway. I never heard any else after the announcement, though.

Given the mess on the roads, I really can't imagine that either plan worked all that well.

If contra-flow had been set up and all inbound lanes were used for evacuation, how would gas tanker trucks or emergency vehicles get through to resupply gas stations along the route or to help motorists?

I heard the same thing about the relief tankers, but never saw or heard any evidence that it really ever happened. Then again, I got so tired of looking at the news reports about the traffic that I tuned out and went and read a book. So it could've happened, somewhere.

Yeah, it was probably one of those brilliant ideas that the big-wigs spout off the media to show that they're working on the problem, but in reality, nothing happens or it turns out to be a miserable failure and the result is the same as if nothing was tried.

No, if you have empty space you can't justify, why aren't you filling it? 12 people in 3 cars use a lot less resources than 12 people in 4 cars. I already have made arrangements that if for some reason my hilltop has to evacuate, my plan is to go out on a certain route. There are two people who are on my evac route who know that if I wait too long, I leave without them, but they have a decent time window. One has a four mile hike from the main road (about a mile if he goes cross country), the other takes me a half mile out of my way when I'm almost to my folks.

Planning... Not just for chess any more.

In a situation like Houston they should probably just close the freeway to low occupancy vehicles. 4 people per car minimum, and have free evac buses picking people up at all points in the region. In fact the contraflow lanes could be reserved for buses and emergency vehicles, no cars allowed. Use TV and radio broadcasts to urge people to evac by bus instead of car, and hire some big name rock bands to put on free shows at the evac centers that can only be reached by bus. That ought to do a lot towards lowering traffic congestion in an evac.

Yeah, there we go. You put into better terms what I was trying to say. <img src="/images/graemlins/smile.gif" alt="" /> Programming erodes the use of the tounge.

My sister has a 2-seat sports car and a medium-sized dog (about as big as a German shepherd or a lab) -- there's no way she could fit 3 other people in her car even without all the stuff she was taking from her home. Are you saying that she should have been barred from I-45, which is really the only feasible evacuation route out of Galveston?

Nope, she has a family member with her. <img src="/images/graemlins/smile.gif" alt="" />

That, and if the dog is big enough to eat the car, the car can go.

I-45 is not the only possible evacuation route. Unless my maps are wrong you can take 3005 to 332 and then there are NUMEROUS roads, streets, small state highways, and other such routes which take you in all directions. Pre-planning and EARLY action is the key.

If I remember correctly, once a hurricane evacuation is declared, Route 3005 (aka Seawall Blvd) is turned into a one-way road headed toward I-45 and the causeway. So I doubt your solution would work for my sister -- expecially since she lives on Tiki Island (between Galveston Island and the mainland, just north of the causeway). And she couldn't leave early, because she's a surgeon at UTMB and I don't think the hospital decided who'd be E-1 until Wednesday.

Heh. Wally's not huge, but you're right, he's certainly a member of the family!

Everyone’s situation is different. Your Sister’s is an especially difficult case. She should raise this issue with her fellow staff. Since Medical Personnel and First Responders have unique needs, the hospital should devise a plan wherein the staff would know who’s required to be on duty and for how long. IF they are going to require your Sister to hang around until it’s too late to evacuate, they need to arrange some type of evacuation – especially given that your Sister and her co-workers are personnel with crucial skills.
Let’s hope that all Hospitals, Cities, Schools, etc. learn from both Katrina & Rita and immediately start brainstorming some of these problems.

I certainly don't want to sound callous about this, but is your sister a slave? Last time I checked back home, people still had the right to decide what to do with their lives in such a situation. I mean, did someone hold a gun to her head and say "Stay or Die"?

I am here in Baghdad because I chose to be, and I stay here because every day I wake up and choose to stay. There are obviously repercussions I will face if I leave before my assignment is done, but I gotta think it's small potatoes compared to being DEAD.

I commend your sister for having the guts to stay. Unless there was something very special about her situation, realize that she took the risk of her own volition, just as I do, and is responsible for that decision, just as I am for mine.

Personally, I would not consider it a wise move to stay and work for an employer who has such little concern for my welfare as to expect me to take unwarranted risks due to their lack of adequate planning. I gotta think with her skills, she would have no problem finding gainful employment elsewhere in short order. By staying to take care of critical needs, she mitigated her employer's obvious incompetence and inconsideration. I am certain that her employer is being/has been greatly compensated because of her sacrifice. Did they pass any of this windfall on to her for her devotion to duty? I would certainly be surprised if they did.

No, no, I meant that she didn't have the flexibility that non-MDs might have had to say "sorry, taking a day off to evacuate early" -- not that UTMB was unduly delaying staff or patient evacs, or that it was unprepared. (Besides, medical folk tend to have a little more dedication to the job than oh, say, a lawyer like me whose career doesn't normally involve life-or-death situations. I'm constantly impressed by the dedication to helping others that people like Polak187 and paramedicpete demonstrate.) And she decided NOT to take the risk of riding out the storm -- the dog played a part in that decision, as did the fact that her house is located on a canal -- which is why she ended up in that 100-mile-long traffic jam that I was ranting about.

By the way, randyo, I asked her about Route 3005, and she said it tends to flood during even run-of-the-mill rainstorms, since the western part of Galveston Island isn't behind the seawall and wasn't built-up after the 1900 hurricane. So driving those 40 miles to Freeport on a flood-prone 2-lane road where everyone else is trying to go the other way is probably not a viable option.

Every road looks good on a map <img src="/images/graemlins/confused.gif" alt="" />

I want Google maps to update in real time. Then you really could tell which roads were best. <img src="/images/graemlins/smile.gif" alt="" />

Again, I don't want to sound overly critical or insulting here, but I want to be clear on this point. What flexibility did she not have as an MD that others apparently had? Unless someone was forcing her to stay, it was still a decision she made to stay in harm's way when the prudent decision at the time was to leave early. I can understand and appreciate her dedication to patients in need, but I have to believe she took even greater risk trying to vacate town at such a late and obviously hopeless hour. She wouldn't have needed to stay at her place necessarily, just find a more suitable shelter and take her dog with her (certainly more problematic, but not impossible to find such a place). Better than being stranded on a roadside while the storm hits I gotta think.

With the limited information I have about your sister and her situation at the time, I would conclude she was very lucky that her decisions didn't place her in great peril. It would most certainly have been a tragic loss had she perished in the storm trying to flee as she did, and all the people who's lives she will some day save would then perhaps never receive the care she will still be able to provide.

I am sure MDs do feel a greater sense of responsibility to their clients than most professionals would. That should not diminish their capacity for making reasonable decisions about their own welfare.

Please convey my gratitude to your sister for her sacrifices. It is people like her that give us hope that humanity is worth the effort.