ETS v. Long Term Survival

I know that ETS is focused on short-term emergency situations rather than long-term "survivalism", but I also have an interest in the latter. Unfortunately, whenever I have looked around for communities that focus on long-term survival planning, I only ever seem to find groups which have a marked tendency to display ultra PHRASECENSOREDPOSTERSHOULDKNOWBETTER. ideologies and I have to wade through mountains of posts blaming one group or another (usually the PHRASECENSOREDPOSTERSHOULDKNOWBETTER., or illegal immigrants, or terrorists, what have you) for all the problems of the modern age. Of course, the old left/right distinctions have lost quite a bit of their original value, but the close-minded extremists on either side of the aisle are driving the S/N ratio down so low it's become extremely difficult to talk about anything worthwhile on such sites, misc.survivalism being, of course, the worst offender.

Judging from many of the posts I've read here, I'm not the only person interested in long-term survival, but as I'd like not to pollute ETS with these topics, can anyone suggest a good online community that deals with these issues in as close to an objective, non-partisan format as possible? I think ETS is a good model for the sort of community I'm looking for. While we do occasionally have partisan posts here, I've rarely, if ever, seen it get out of hand here.

What time frame are you looking to for “long term” survival?

I would think, considering there have been a number of “moderate” (weeks to several months) of post natural disaster living situations, that several forum members have had to deal with and have shared their valuable insights and experiences, could serve to act as models for longer term survival.

Also, as an international forum, a number of our members are from culturally diverse environments and what would be “survival” situation for our life style may be the norm for their area of the world. Learning how they deal with daily living could provide valuable insights as to how to manage and perform life skills that we normally do not encounter.

By asking how these individuals have dealt with these situations and using their experiences and insights, you could readily adapt them for longer periods of “survival”, without getting to the “survivalist” realm of discussion or mentality.

Pete

I would not be adverse to setting up a "long term survival' section in the forum, IF (a big if):

1. There are sufficient numbers of like minded folks out there who are tired of the flames and tirades in most of those forums elsewhere.

2. If we do this it would follow exactly the same rules as here, which means discussion would be limited to survival issues only, no politics, no personal attacks, etc. See: http://www.equipped.org/rules.htm Chris will admin it with an iron hand, so to speak. Probably would want to set it up so that each person participating has to sign an explicit, legally binding pledge in this regard. (which I'd need to figure out how to do)

3. If interested, please ask like minded folks to check in here and leave a message in this thread. If we get enough response, I'll open up another section.

4. If the new section cannot maintain civility, I would not hesitate to shut it down.

5. Starting up such a section would have to wait until we sort out the current server issues.

I would be interested in participating in such a forum.

Count me in. Once again I would reading not writing, but there is gonna be some really interesting tips goin on. If anyone knows plant medicine or GOOD books on it, please pass it on. As Mr Mears said if we don't keep using these natural remedies, we will forget what took long times of trial n error to find out

I'd be interested in this too.

Actually, I think you should ask potential users to list their favorite movies; if Rambo or Red Dawn are on the list, ban 'em immediately. <img src="/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />

One other idea, you could set up the forum so that users must have some minimum number of posts elsewhere on the board to participate in it.

I like the idea.

Count me in.

ya way cool like man. <img src="/images/graemlins/laugh.gif" alt="" />

So long as people don't kick me in the shins too hard if I get philosophical, I'm game.

I've posted before that the irony of longterm survival sites is their short online survival. It's a pretty expansive subject. The 'homesteading' phenomenon of the 70s created a cottage industry of log and timberframing schools, Lehmans Hardware saw their customer base grow beyond Amish families and organic and heirloom seed growers found a market . The books are sadly mostly OOP, but RODALE PRESS was noted for short runs of fascinating titles. As noted, it's a fine line ( about a mule plow wide actually) between survival and some escapist alternate lifestyle. but then again, with gasoline prices I may be duct taping PVC shafts to my car, punching out the wiindshield and hitching my horse to the assembly <img src="/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" />

Today the idea of longterm survival seems to encompass the two weeks between paychecks, and I am being half-serious here. Most people can't see beyond the next paycheck. I try, but it is very difficult to do so.

I would be interested in the philosophy and concepts embodied by such a forum, but would not be able to put any into practice. I live in a townhouse development in a heavily developed and rapidly expanding suburb of Philadelphia. It's hard enough to carry a PSK or any belt gear around here without raising eyebrows.

As for really discussing longterm survival, I saw a British movie once called "Threads," about the aftermath of a limited nuclear exchange. It was extremely realistic and totally depressing. During the course of the movie, mankind degenerated into the kind of primitive heathens we read about now in history books and laugh at, marveling at how far we've come.

Wouldn't take much -- a simple EMP, really -- to knock us right back down, flat on our butts in the muck. No electricity, no modern civilization. Nuclear Winter. Middle Ages Part II. Agriculture fails. Starvation sets in. There is no happy ending to this movie. All the main characters die or are killed off. There is birth, but trust me, it is not at all happy.

Anyone else see "Threads?" How realistic do you think it is?

-- Craig

I think it's best to look to the homesteading community for rational discussion of this stuff. I expect any such section on ETS would gravitate to the usual TEOTWAWKI (sp?) madness, and would spill over to the rest of ETS.

Bad choice for a lurkers' first post, but I would read and contribute to an LTS section.

-BigMike989

I would be interested as long as it was heavily monitored, and we had some FAQ's in that area that go over some scenerios not acceptable.

I certainly wouldn't want to see anyone's freedom of speech get trampled, but when people start going off the deep end it gets a little hard to keep straight face. My kill file for misc.survivalism got so long it was ridiculous.

That said, I think there is some value to contemplating TEOTWAWKI. I've just finished reading "The Long Emergency" by James Howard Kunstler, and there is a lot in that book that is difficult to ignore. As an example, one of the topics that has always fascinated me is the subject of investment with societal breakdown in mind. For instance, precious metals, aside from their intrinsic aesthetic and electrical properties, only carry monetary value because complex societies tend to agree that these substances are good media of exchange.

I'm really not interested in hearing the nutcases proselatize (sp?) on whom we can blame all the ills of our modern life, whether it be "Big Business", "Those Damn Liberals", illegal immigrants, gun control advocates, The Project for a New American Century, the Illuminati, or what have you. What I am interested in is what can we do to preserve humankind in the event of a pervasive disaster.

I liked Rambo and Red Dawn and I don't have all that many posts, maybe two or three. That doesn't make me a wild eyed survivalist, just don't have much to say. As to long term survival I have survived longer than most folks on this board

A rather broad topic. I'm not confident that there are distinguishable boundaries between preparedness and philosophies. I do not envy the forum administrator if this is set up.

While the topic is beyond fascinating to me, I'm not certain I would like to see a forum for this.

Tom

>> As to long term survival I have survived longer than most folks on this board <<

An interesting statement - I'll bite: Please elaborate.

I too would be interested in this type of forum, again, as stated, that it would be strongly moderated. It might not be TEOTWAWKI as a most possible scenario, but long term disruption of common services in a regional area due to a terrorist nuke or dirty bomb that concerns me more, and may be a more realistic incident. Either way, longer preparations would certainly be needed.

You sure have! I registered 11/13/01, and that was my second registration, after the forum's unfortunate crash-and-burn. I actually was a registered member before 9/11.

-- Craig

Count me in. I also would enjoy seeing some discussions on these types of "long term living". Techniques, not so much causes. I am more interested in how to store 55 gallons of kerosene for a long period than I am discussing the merits of moving our cash economy off the gold standard. <img src="/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" />

Things like scrounging a cheap way to stay warm in winter when the power is out, or non-existant... Food storage, lighting, keeping my kids and grandkids safe, collecting water when the public system is down (for whatever reason)...

Like I said, technique, not cause.

Why did I suddenly start humming "I will survive" from THE BIRDCAGE <img src="/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" /> keep it nice people . Offenders may wake up to #10 cans of lima beans poured onto driveways.

I would also be interested by this kind of forum, within those limits.
Right now, living almost in Paris, my options are somewhat limited, as are the expriments I could conduct. But leaving Paris for my own house in the countryside is more and more my project.

I think there's still a lot of room for discussion without any reference to politics of any kind. Or for that matter WHAT causes a need for a certain degree of self reliance for an extended (say, longer than a couple weeks) period. I'm interested here more in the hows (how can we muddle through this) than the whys (why did this happen - it's ALL[fill in the blank's] FAULT!!).

I think if everyone remains civil, and this does seem like a very very civil board - it should be fine.

Seems there is some interest from members. I for one, have no interest in the subject. We have almost all been spoiled too long to be re-educated to any truly functional level of long term survival. So, no participation here. No offense intended to anyone. Cheers!

Just in driveways? *looks innocent, hiding lockpicks behind back* Not in beds? Would be worse than a horse's head to wake up to.

<img src="/images/graemlins/smile.gif" alt="" />

Yes, declaring it a NO-BLAIM zone would be critical, particularly with moderately brutal administration.

For me, it isn't TEOWAKI-senarios I'm concerned about, but economic disruption. My grandparents told me a lot of stories about depression, and I just about found myself skewered in the "let's not use the D-word" economic downtrend a few years ago.

I'm an old guy, I gave boat building lessons to Noah <img src="/images/graemlins/tongue.gif" alt="" />

I'd definitely be interested.

Troy

Boy, will this be unpopular...

The "legally binding pledge" part gave me the idea. I doubt you'll ever get that implemented. But what this sounds like is premium content. That is, something that people would be willing to pay for. So... limit membership to ETS foundation contributors. They mail you a check for a minimum amount, so you get their name, and in the comment area they can write their ETS forum name.

If you can, restrict access to a subforum on a member by member basis. Granted, it would be some additional admin work. On the plus side, only those members who really, really wanted to be there would be, and they'd risk being banned without a refund. Also, ETS gets more money.

...another "mostly reader, seldom poster", but would also like a LONGTERM section.

I've also looked for such a forum to no avail.... sign me up here if there ever is one. <img src="/images/graemlins/cool.gif" alt="" />

Count me in. The LTS pages sounds like a great idea. Really, I can't think of too many instances where discussions have gotten out of hand on this site...adding an additional forum shouldn't create too many problems.

I agree with a previous post...Who cares who created the problem(s)..I just like to hear new ideas for long term water storage, gasoline storage and a whole host of other topics much more interesting than who caused the mess.

Chris does a fine job and I would suspect that he will handle this in his usually fair but firm fashion.

I vote Yea for the new section.

Not that I would EVER WANT to have to do something like that, but I find the CONCEPT very interesting, and I find that you can learn a lot about short term survival from how people do things day to day.
A three day situation, can be handled with few supplies, but with even minor delays, that three days could be extended to a week or two quite easily... And then all of our emergancy supplies start to run out VERY quickly!
The techniques of long term survival can quickly become very usefull.

The current problem in New Orleans(which thankfully seems to have dogged the bullet AGAIN!) could have left people stranded for a week or more!

Count me in. I doubt the LTS section would get out of hand. We have a good crowd here and no history of fringe behaviour. uhhh I mean fringe by OUR standards.

-Nim

I have been watching several other forums today to see what they would say about the Kat thing. There has been much less martial BS than I expected.

Perhaps -- PERHAPS -- if Doug did a new LTS forum it could/would/might maybe attract only 'the right sort.'

Now, how suburban subdivision does that sound? Survival snobs? [I've read that, BTW] OK, if the shoe fits.

Cavanaugh, are you up for this?

A new LTS section would be especially useful in light of the current situation in Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana.

I hear some folks might be without power for 2 months and the water continues to rise. No potable water in New Orleans...this situation is going to go well beyond the three day standard we discuss on this site.

Come on Chris...pleeeeaaaasssseee. <img src="/images/graemlins/smile.gif" alt="" />

Would also be interested in LTS.

I'm probably going against the grain but I think of "Long Term Survival" as something on the order of 90 days or more with little or no outside aid. Anything less than that is certaintly something that people who frequent this site should be equipped to deal with, either through shelter-in-place or evacuation. Three days should definately not be the standard--except for maybe PSK's.

That said, if everybody wants to make it a separate section I'll definately read it--it's just that there are other categories that are equally worthy of a separate section (wilderness survival comes to mind.)

Regards, Vince

I mostly read but occasionally post and would be very interested in LTS. Both from a "can't get out, have to stay at your current residence" view point and a pre planned "meet me @ X retreat".

I think that given many are looking at 3 months without electricy, 'long term survival' may take on a whole new meaning.

It's interesting. About five days ago, when I first read this thread, I wasn't so sure the benefits of LTS discussion on this site would outweigh the potential for over-bearing TEOTWAWKI scenarios and the potential for an influx of participants who may not be open to alternative points-of-view. I think the most significant challenges we face in having meaningful discussion on LTS, is that it becomes necessary to make a whole series of assumptions and since introducing the temporal dimension introduces the need to consider many variables in the equation.

One of the reasons I started posting to ETS is because I was impressed with how polite, thoughtful and informed the members and post were. I first thought LTS discussions could compromise that, but given my thoughts listed below, I now feel there is much to discuss re LTS.

Seeing how the events have been playing out near the Gulf, my observations and thoughts have been on:
-- how totally unprepared many of these unfortunate individuals are
-- how under-educated many people seem to be
-- how people refused to leave
-- how people seem unwilling to take responsibility for preparing for their own well-being
-- how the local, state and federal governments apparently didn't provide a means of evacuation for those who didn't have the resources or were too ill to leave BEFORE the storm
-- how the local, state and federal governments apparently didn't put enough forethought into responding to a disaster of this size and scope (and let’s face it, from a US geographical perspective, this is a relatively localized event – imagine the repercussions of a significant terrorist attack or natural disaster on two or three US cities at once)
-- how the local, state and federal governments were apparently not prepared to secure the safety of people and property immediately after the severe storm threat had passed (even though with an event like a hurricane they had days to prepare).
-- how difficult it seems to be to keep people calm after the events
-- how uninformed many of these victims seem to be (expressing dissatisfaction that the power is out, as opposed to understanding the dangers of electrocution if it were just turned back on)
-- how I’ll bet that many will be surprised that there are more repercussions yet to come – health issues as disease starts to spread, injuries that may arise from local critters (snakes, gators and crocs, etc)
-- how many of these unfortunate individuals seem to have some expectation that their lives should be able to return to “normal” overnight.
-- how incredulous the victims seem to be that it's difficult to provide food, water and shelter for tens of thousands of victims
-- how mean, violent and uncooperative people appear to be when being sheltered (even as I write this news channels are reporting about the shootings, fire-settings, muggings and rapes inside the Superdome, the lootings (not referring to food and water) and the shootings at rescuers in helicopters and boats outside the Superdome and in the remains of the city).
-- how even as uncomfortable as I’m sure life inside the Superdome is -- probably beyond my ability to comprehend -- many people are complaining about the taste of MREs, and leaks in the roof – as opposed to expressing any thankfulness that they are 1) alive, 2) being given food and water that others are paying for and 3) being given potential relocation to even better accommodations
-- how I can’t help but feeling that (in my uninformed opinion,) it is likely that some small but significant percentage of individuals who stayed behind, may have done so just to have the opportunity to loot, pillage and plunder.
-- how the rest of us will likely be paying indirectly through increases in taxes (or reduction in services), insurance premiums, gasoline prices, building materials, etc. for quite some time.

I could go on and on ……and I’m sure many others could too.

For what it’s worth, you have a BIG YES VOTE from me on creating an additional LTS forum area. It’s clear to me that thousands will be in something of a survival mode for months. We could have meaningful discussions on the Katrina fallout alone for some time. I was happy to help contribute to Chris’ new machine, please know I’ll send another check as soon as I can get clearance from my wife, to support the replacement of the new server.

I’ll even offer up what my first three LTS posts would be:

1) What effect has viewing the events unfolding in New Orleans had on members in terms of re-evaluating how long they intend to prepare to be able to sustain themselves and their families?
2) Has anyone changed their opinion to sheltering-in-place as opposed to using public facilities in a crisis?
3) What additions to or revisions of plans are members making for needing to relocate in event of regional disasters?

Thanks and apologies for the dissertation, but I really felt the need to express my thoughts and feelings,

Michael

There's a few things I would like to point out since this discussion has taken off...

First of all, I'm not entirely sure that ETS should maintain an LTS forum. It would contrary to the original purpose of the site, and would be difficult in the extremem to maintain a semblance of order. What I was originally wondering was if there are any existing communities that I could check out that weren't entirely over the top, or off the deep end.

That said, I would certainly be willing to put my money where my mouth is and pony up to support ETS financially if Doug and the other Powers That Be decide to create such a forum.

I also want to say that I've just finished reading James Howard Kunstler's "The Long Emergency", and I was struck by Kunstler's evaluation of good places to live in a post-"cheap oil" society, as opposed to the "traditional" wisdom of homesteading in rural areas. I live six miles from Center City Philadelphia in that great peninsula, New Jersey, and I have long been troubled by my location (for a number of reasons). Following Kunstler, I may acutally be in a fantastic place, with close access to strategic water transportation, relatively nearby fertile farm land (they don't call it The Garden State for nothing, you know), and in a community that still has a functional downtown a couple of blocks from my house. Many of NJ's towns are Revolutionary War era municipalities, despite the prevalence of suburban development. There are no Mc Mansions here (well, at least in my town), only 100+ year old houses built for an era sans air-conditioning and other so-called "modern" amenities.

Anyway, you can count on me for support if ETS goes that way, and I'll certainly try very hard to be without political recriminations--though it's a bit hard not to criticize the handling of the Katrina fiasco.

I've got a library that could practically revive civilization, and the tools to do it. Everything from the Greeks to Adam Smith to current technologies, including authors like Horace Kephart and Nessmuk, Thomas Paine and Richard Feynman, Robert Heinlein and Miyamoto Musashi. Yes, I can be called a "survivalist", and I'm proud of it. But, I also think that ETS' focus on short-term survival is equally important.

Threads was so realistic it was banned in the UK for about 20 odd years. It was released for public viewing at the same time as "the day after" I watched them both as a kid and was scared to my boots.

Johno

Few things I watch really "get" me. This got me at my core. If everything and everyone I know and love is gone, then why should I bother trying to survive? I still don't have a good answer to that question.

I was bummed because until that point, I thought a limited exchange would be survivable, which it would be, but I never considered the aftermath. I want no part of living the consequences, but what is the reasonable alternative for reasonable people?

-- Craig

Given the wake-up call issued by Katrinia, I don't know how we (ETS) can discuss preparedness on any level without including longer-term preparations in the discussion. Don't think any of us would want to face the next few months in New Orleans with just an Altoids tin crammed with goodies, or even a moderately well-stocked BOB. Events of this magnitude require a different preparedness mindset.

Put in context, Katrina's devastation may well be a one-in-a-thousand event, but on the other hand, thinking like "it can never happen to us" is partly responsible for the current plight in New Orlean's and other impacted areas.

I have every confidence that participants on this forum can and would conduct themselves appropriately.

I dunno, maybe we can glean some good kernels from the chaff that will surely come. I reckon you may as well make the new forum. If it doesn't work like we hope, we can just pull the plug, like Doug says.

Time to get the old "Foxfire" series out and start reading again.

Ain't it notable how, as applied technology advances our civilization, it becomes increasingly precarious? The philosophy seems to go contradictory to the reality, kinda like computers were supposed to make our lives and our jobs easier, right? It sure seemed a lot easier to me to work on that old 65 ford fairlane and give it a good tune up and just drive it down the road with the AM radio set to one of my five favorite channels. Now it costs me $500 to take my POS Kia in and get it "serviced" with all those diagnostics, and then try to drive down the road punching buttons trying to find something other than Rap or Hip Hop on the daughter's CD collection playing in the trunk or on the radio, or the satellite radio, or the climate control and then accidentally push that ^(^%$##@ On-Star button again and have to pay another $15 for the false alarm!!!

Yep, we could use two steps back here pretty soon I reckon.

I don't know about two steps back. The "problem", I think, with a modern, technologically advanced society is the number of layers added between you and basic survival. We don't need to take two steps back... we just need to continuously practice skills that aren't usually necessary. This won't happen, of course.

I support the creation of an LTS forum. While many of the equipment and techniques for short-term survival are transferable to LTS, LTS requires some unique considerations. I've had many thoughts and questions re: LTS but found that I had to sift through a lot of conspiracy theories and nonsense from both ends of the political spectrum to find good info on other sites. It would be great to have a site where, regardless of whether you're sheltering-in-place for a month because of a flood, an alien invasion or government oppression, you could learn how to do it well.

That is why when I do the cooking for an outside get together of computer geeks, I light the fire without matches. <img src="/images/graemlins/smile.gif" alt="" /> Silicon is my friend, be it in a flint knife, a fire striker, or a microprocessor.

I suppose it depends on what you mean by "long term". I don't think this site has a hard cut-off date of 3 days or anything. Although the area affected by Katrina is large, it's not the whole of America and the rest of America is going to step in and help. This is not "the end of the world as we know it". Civilisation remains. New Orleans survival demands are not long-term in the sense of a needing a new way of life that can be sustained indefinitely.

I'm a programmer by trade. I have only limited interest in preparing for a possible long-term future without computers.

Let's re-examine our terminology. No offense to anyone, we think in a pretty binary frame of mind here: short term, and long term. What do these mean? The lack of agreed definition and the narrowness of scope limits our thinking. Since some react to "long term" the way some people react to "heresy", so let's toss in a new word: "mid term".

I'll toss out my terms and thier meanings, and what kind of kit IMO is for it:

--Immediate term: <24hours, EDC and the ever popular PSK
--Short term: 5 days, with a BOB. BOB should get through 48 hours by himself, 3-5 days if you can get water from outside, even if you have to make potable yourself.
--Mid term: 5 to 30 days. BOB gets you to a location where you can hole up for that time, or you shelter in place. Most (99.9%) of us need external support.
--Long term: 30 to 365 days: Unless you are a very devote Mormon, super paranoid or Amish, you need external support, a temp job, temp housing, et al.
--TEOTWAWKI: 366+ days. If situation isn't stable in a year, the world won't go back normal. Period. The Black Death, the Great Depression, two World Wars, the ice ages, these are 366+ day problems that changed everyone and everything they touched. You have to adapt, or die, becuase there is no external support left at that point.

So I guess what I'm in support of is a Mid Term forum, with LT discussions allowed but rare. Topics of common interest would be: fuel storage, water storage, how to patch a tire (rather than simply replace it or stuff it with fixaflat- have no idea) or improvise other automotive parts, that kind of thing.

since we are talking like computer nerds now, I'll just say...

/agree

By the way... I'm on my way out of the IT industry. Good luck to all those on their way in.

In, and staying in. I'm just fermenting.

I'd be interested in a LTS section.

Threads wasn't banned. It was made in 1984, broadcast in 1985, then again in 1987.

You might be thinking of The War Game, which was made in 1965, but not broadcast until 1985.

I'd be interested in a LTS survival section, too.

Specially if it's going to be moderated so TEOTWAWKI scenarios don't pop up.

AMEN, brotha.

Troy

Cheers Pat, I realised that over the weekend, but for some reason I can only update my messages at work. Still damn good films for thier time.

Johno

if you have problems posting/replying at home (something like "we cannot proceed..."), check your personal firewall configuration if you have one....

Been a lurker for awhile..As far as LST goes I think a moderate amount of discussion re. politics is nessasary to explore different senarios that would require LST and how to prepare for them. Everyone here at this forum seems to be able to be rational about exploring politics and religion as they pertain to ideas that are presented. In light of Katrina I think that a place to exchange rational non-fringe ideas regarding LTS is nessasary, as observed too many other fourms kinda go off the deep end one way or another.

Especially check that your firewall is not "blocking referers"

Andy

I read a lot more here than I post. Until recently I hadn't experienced any thing that could be considered "survival" but then I was staying with friends in Birmingham (UK) when the Tornado hit taking half the house down. People there are still suffering and life won't be back to "normal" for a long while yet. As natural disasters increase over here people will have to support them selves for extended periods as the authorities over here are just not prepared for such. A section with advice and information on longer term survival would be very interesting.

Dumb question, I suppose. Are basements common over there? Was there anyplace to take shelter?

One thing I hate about living in Florida... basements are rare. I miss having a relatively safe place to hide.

Very few houses over here have a basement (cellar over here). Some of the older ones do but they are in the region of at least 50 years old. I grabed my friends and their kids and "hid" under the stairs so we had one brick wall behind us and the stairs to stop any thing that fell from above. It worked thankfully. The roof and the upstairs level were ripped off but no one was hurt inside.

Katrina shows us that we may have to fend for ourselves for a longer period than we thought. Two weeks is the time that they said was right for sheltering in fallout shelters. I think that would be a reasonable period to call short term survival. I don't want to hear about storing wheat & grinding flour!

I am interested in discussing sheltering in place. I think discussing what would be required to shelter in place for about three weeks would be very useful. There are a plethora of problems that would have to be dealt with. I just finished the book “Alas Babylon.” It is about nuclear war with the Soviet Union and how the people in a small Florida town survive.

Any good?

If you liked "Alas Babylon," you might also like "Lucifer's Hammer." Comet strikes Earth, and the aftermath.

Both are great old friends, if slightly optimistic. I have Warday right next to them (well researched, honest, but the odds of it be a limited exchange went to zero before I was born), along with Brin's Postman (lacking research in a few places, but the principles are good; don't judge it by the movie).

Sounds like a good idea, Doug(provided your rules are followed).

My two cents: I'd love to see a practical (as another member said) LTS forum.

My family thinks I'm paranoid because I'm building EDC kits and stocking food and water, but I would like to have the peace of mind to know if something big and scary did upset the normal balance of life, at least I'd have a chance (and hopefully knowledge and skills) to get through it.

No plans to hole up in a compound or curse the government (at least not in an LTS forum)... just a real desire to regain some of humanity's long lost skills.

It was written in the 1950s. It is well written. You feel like you are watching a movie instead of struggling with someone's prose. The one thing that I think he got wrong was the water. Water is stored in large water tanks that are gravity fed. He said the water stopped when the electricity stopped. I think the water would stop when the tank runs dry. The main character has an underground well that he gets water from. I would think that would require a pump that would require electricity. Other than that it seemed very realistic. There are many good lessons.

IIRC, the Braggs had an artisian well. Ground and water pressure apparently forces the water to the surface in those kinds of wells, no moving parts, but pressure can be funny at times. (I know someone who has one, he kabitzes about the pressure all the time.) In the book there was apparently enough for them to use it for irrigation, so running it into household plumbing should be easy enough, so long as you stick to the ground floor.

Uhm, yeah, I kinda read the cover off a copy of Alas Babylon when I was younger.

You know, it's funny. This forum resisted even talking much about LTS for quite a while. It came up once in a long while, but never really got too serious interest.

Along with other indicators, I find it interesting that so much publicity/shop talk/community sink is focusing more and more on the impending disaster(s) waiting just around the corner for us all.

Why?

It just seems that the doom and gloom factor is accelerating beyond rational parameters. Even accounting for my present location, things seem even more stressful and tense than Y2K did. Wierd huh? <img src="/images/graemlins/tongue.gif" alt="" />

I would also be interested in an LTS forum

(However, I disagree with only allowing people in who have so many posts)

I would be very interested in hearing exactly what the members of this forum consider to be LTS as compared to MTS and STS. It sounds as though we are getting criticized for focusing on short term scenarios. But I don't recall LTS threads getting shot down here--unless they got too political or too wacky. I don't believe that LTS threads are necessarily too right or PHRASECENSOREDPOSTERSHOULDKNOWBETTER. by nature. If there is enough interest then somebody ought to start a discussion. If somebody starts Bush-bashing or Hillary-hammering then Chris can--and will-- shut it down. Go ahead and discuss the best way to store wheat or desalinate water.

Again, what does everybody consider LTS? I'll get the ball rolling: I consider LTS anything greater than 90 days.

Regards, Vince

I think some people are confusing "Long Term Survival" with what I guess should be called "Epochal Adaptation."

If what happened in New Orleans could be compared to Pompeii, it should be remembered that the Roman Empire continued to exist after Pompeii for almost four centuries. People who survived Pompeii endured Long Term Survival. Those who endured the fall of the Roman Empire Adapted to a new Epoch.

Long Term Survival almost certainly involves a dialogue about ethics, but probably not ideology. Epochal Adaptation invariably compels ideological discussions and conflicts.

I think that's where the difference lies, and time is often not a factor. It's sort of like pornography: you know it when you see it. Sort of like the difference between evacuation and migration.

I don't see the need for a separate forum, so long as LTS issues (as nebulously defined above) are discussed in a functional and ethical context. Anything else should be left to the Hippie Homesteaders and Bunker Bubbas.

My two cents, after a long absence from posting.

G

Well, before the server ate my old profile and all the posts from it, I did.... *growls menacing at server*

Immediate term: <24 hours, PSK and EDC country
Short term: 24-120 hours, BOB
Medium Term: 5-30 days, BOB gets you out of the area or you are bugging in for the duration
Long Term: 30-365 days, you should be moving
TEOTWAWKI: 366+ days, it isn't ever going to be the same again (a world war, a really good plague, comet strike, etc)

I could by into that definition. Mine was a little simpler.

Short term - <72 hours
Medium term - <2 weeks
Long term - <2 months

Anything beyond 2 months, and it is a lifestyle change and not just a survival situation anymore as we would define it, but now a way of life.

Okay, let's start a new thread now and see where this LTS thing takes us. I'll let someone else have the honors.

I think that you have to talk about ideology before you have a frame within which to talk about ethics. If you are going to talk about 'long term survival', it leads to the question of long terms survival of what, and then of who, and sooner or later you are going to have to talk about 'the greater good' or you are being manifestly irresponsible.

The ethics comes in when you ask, 'responsibilty, to whom?' If the answer is "to me" I would think about that.

Don't get me wrong, my ass is covered, but if you have to think about what comes next. Shoot me -- I'm a lawyer.

I also think in just 3 "terms", with nothing shorter than short term or longer than long term. So for me surviving in the long term would mean surviving indefinitely. It would mean learning about crops, bee hives, rewiring power-generators, preserving knowledge for future generations etc. I find this stuff interesting, partly because I like science fiction, but it is not something I am actively preparing for. Although it includes the end of the world as we know it, it would also include the kind of skills that would let you survive in the wilderness for years. Much of it is Ray Mears-style bushcraft. The emphasis on sustainability.

Surviving in the short term would mean surviving the immediate danger. Getting out of the collapsed building, getting home, surviving the first night. The time period would usually be measured in hours, short enough that food is not an issue. Usually water and shelter would not be issues either, unless you are in the kind of hositile environment where dehydration or hypothermia are immediate threats.

The medium term is everything in between. The time frame is long enough that you need to worry about consumables - water, food, petrol, batteries etc - but your provision for these doesn't have to be sustainable. There should be some definite end to the crisis in sight, and the aim is to survive in relative comfort until then. You have enough time to think, take stock, plan and build.

So, for example, if the problem is shelter, a bin-liner could be a short-term solution, good to get you through one night. A small tent or built shelter would serve in the medium term. For the long term you want something that can take the worst of whatever the climate will throw at it, year in and year out.

Short term: a 500ml bottle of water. Medium term: water filter or large stockpile in the basement. Long term: a fresh water stream or well.

Short term: go hungry. Medium term: meals-ready-to-eat. Long term: fishing and hunting kits.

Short term: Photon keychain light. Medium term: Surefire's best with a stockpile of batteries. Long term: learn how to make candles.

Every-day Carry and Personal Survival Kits are mostly aimed at the short term, with some exceptions. Some kits include cordage for building shelters, which is more of a medium term concern. Fishing kits are long-term. Bug-out Bags are mostly aimed at medium-term survival. Deep bushcraft knowledge, such as how to build and use a fire-drill, is long-term. You can of course use long-term, sustainable solutions for medium-term and short-term problems.

Rather than focus on time frames, can you give some examples of subjects which are off-topic here, but which would be on-topic in the proposed forum?

Nottingham!!! Is this the first time I saw that? Man, you've got it almost as bad there as I do here. You must be a tough sod.

Cheers <img src="/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" />

Hardly. I'm guessing you're talking about this kind of thing.

Here is reason enough to be scared: http://actnow.saferworld.org/action/

When you have Sam Nunn telling you the threat is real and could be now you better listen! Get the free DVD.

Lots of laughs <img src="/images/graemlins/laugh.gif" alt="" /> <img src="/images/graemlins/laugh.gif" alt="" /> <img src="/images/graemlins/laugh.gif" alt="" />

I guess it just depends on whom you talk to. Must be the sheriff spreading those lies. They've got a history of claiming Nottingham is full of criminals, you know.

I would like a longer term forum. Since we have now had 2 category 5 hurricanes in the Gulf, and hopefully Rita will weaken significantly, it appears that widespread damage to infrastructure will be a fact of live in the next 25 years. We need to share more knowledge of what happens after the media stops covering the story.

Yes. Long term less the "politics" would be great.