Bug Out -- But to WHERE?

Sure, it's a fun mental exercise to imagine what you would do, what you would take, if you had to bug out.

But really, I would consider bugging out as my drop-dead last resort. Firestorm. Chemical spill. And both of those should be temporary. I can't think of any other situation where leaving would be an improvement on staying.

SHTF? It's not likely to be just local! There are about 6.5 million people in my state, & approx. 300 million in this country. Everyone heads for the hills? It's going to be crowded up there. Probably 98% will run out of gas at the same time, at the 300-350 mile mark. The rest will have the 98% after them for their two jerry cans marked "water", and will probably end up with them having multiple caliber perforations or a single loud whoosh!

So, generally speaking, what's your plan? Under what conditions would you leave? Where would you go? Can you carry enough fuel to get there? Will THERE be any different from HERE by the time you get there?

Here, I've got shelter, food, water, ways to catch more water, firewood and I know (or suspect) which neighbors I can trust and which I probably can't.

The paranoia induced by limited food, limited fuel, limited water, and not being able to sleep so as to protect these limited assets doesn't sound like a picnic, either.

So.... what's your plan?

Sue

Your point is very well taken. I live in a city ringed by some 7 military bases, with some very nasty things there apart apart from being prime "terrorist" targets (I always put "terrorist" in quotes these days -- became I'm not, and don't anybody should be 'terrorized'). The only advantage I can see in splitting is avoiding the chaos that would follow a really nasty event. More on the level of being simply tiresome, after a while.

This community has a truly nifty flood every flood every few years with resultant loss of life, etc., etc., and the populace has proven to be remarkably resilient. But, the drumbeat of all emergency authorities in such events is STAY PUT. Do not put yourself and potential first responders at risk by getting out in it. About half of the fatalities we have had from storm events over the twenty years I have been watching it has been folks that had no business being where they were when they got killed.

In days gone by, I had to get out in the stuff when it was happening, but, thankfully, no more. I should, thus, term my 'BOB' an expanded boony survival / urban personal convenience bag. Its survival components are very unlikely to ever come into play unless I'm already out & about.

Great mental exercise, and this is following on the heels of some of the other threads this week that have got me thinking.

*Structure Fire: Immediate evacuation with the clothes on my back and hopefully some shoes and a cell phone in my hand.

*Wildfire: Urgent evacuation (usually some advance notice) with BoB bags and car. Relocate to nearby local relatives/friends.

*Chemical Spill: Immediate evacuation uphill & upwind with clothes on my back, or shelter in place if needed.

*Natural Disaster (Flooding, Earthquake, etc.): Immediate evacuation, probably on foot, to the least unaffected local area or shelter. Eventually you will be able to access your home, if it's still standing. Take BoB's if possible.

*Local Civil Unrest: Evacuate away from population centers, possibly to a hotel or campground at least 1-2 hours away. Load car with BoB bags, self-defense, 72 hours of food/water, and camping gear.

*Terrorism: Evacuate away from population centers, probably to a remote campground or relatives/friends in another area. Load car with BoB bags, self-defense, maximum amount of food/water, and camping gear.

The one common theme I am seeing is how valuable my BoB bags and hiking boots will be. Stripped of my home and vehicle, at least I can try to hoof it somewhere safe with some minimal comfort and security. At this point I don't have any rural property, so I'd choose to "bug in" unless the circumstances required me to evacuate. First choice for evacuation would be to local relatives/friends, unless I wanted to put some distance between me and the problem. At that point I'd consider heading to a more remote area of the state and shacking up at a hotel or campground, probably with a lot of other people. Even if I did have rural property away from my area, chances are by the time I got there it would be occupied by someone else.

Nonetheless, I feel somewhat safe in my location, as I'm already away from major cities and can access millions of acres of public land within minutes. I should probably be more worried about a bear getting into my stash of energy bars and canned ravioli, to awake in the morning with no breakfast, and worse, no COFFEE! <img src="/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" />

Theres a grainy black and white film considered the first great Hollywood movie. The great Train Robbery has a great chase. This has been a required ingredient in virtually every movie made since. It doesn't matter if your on horse, balloon, U-Boat or Green Mustang chasing the black Dodge. Disaster movies always show rivers of abandoned cars jammed and pointed out of the dying city with bleached skeletons inside. The road has always been the great american adventure, be it wagontrain rutts or a Jack Kerouac paperback. So smart people study movies and DON'T buy a Rambo knife, imitate Robert Redford, Brad Pitt,Anthony Hopkins, Darryl Hanna and get Bart the Bear mad, head for the hills when the Soviet Union invades your high school or break down a 9MM and make a roaring fire like agent Mulder. It's all there, all the BAD information. So, I too am staying home. Oh, one of my riding buddies is a well known african american actor. He says NEVER, EVER seperate in the scary old house and the brother always gets killed first <img src="/images/graemlins/blush.gif" alt="" />

Well, I have thought about that for a long time, and this is more survivalist than survival talk, but I guess one can naturally lead to the other in extreme situations.

Given my economic situation, my limitations are that were I to need to evacuate my primary residence, I can go about as far as a tank of gas can take me, about as quickly as my vehcile will drive down the road unimpeded. About the only thing I can think of worth abandoning my home for would be imminent catastrophe, like mass invasion, chemical weapon spill (I have a chem demil plant in operation 35 miles south of me) radioactive release (I have a nuclear reservation 30 miles north of me) or strategic nuclear attack. In all cases, the chances I can escape the threat are not too good, but I think I've improved my odds better than 99% of those around me. I have picked 4 routes in different directions to different destinations that will not have traffic on them and provide me with shelter opportunites along the way should the need arise. 3 of my destinations are fortified and stocked, with reliable water sources and fairly isolated.

That is about the best I can do. It doesn't improve the odds much, and only addresses a minute survival aspect, but it was something to consider, and chance favors the prepared mind.

Actually, no where to bug out to in my area -- Have only the house I'm living in and the freeway system here is mostly elevated, so in the event of say an earthquake [we do have a fault line in the midwest, not as severe as California but a fault line nonetheless] the roads in and out would be impassable should just a few bridges or overpasses collapse. My bug out bag is in the car so if I happen to be away from the house, hopefully, I can make it back home on foot where the majority of my supplies and weapons are. Would have to shelter in place, my Hyundai isn't exactly a 4WD or a Hummer. I willl do the best with what I have.

Methinks I'd be staying home. Bugging In, if you will.

To my mind, if my wife and me were to evacuate, shelters wouldn't take pets, and I'm not leaving behind ours. They're coming with us. If things go badly, then we die together, as a family. Pets are not disposable. Pets are friends for life.

If we were ordered from our home and were physically ejected, we'd take the pets and head to either my sister's place or my mom's.

-- Craig

I live and work in the suburbs. I decided long ago that I'm not going anywhere short of a nuclear, chemical, or biological attack or accident. I can't think of a scenario where I would need to go more than 10 miles out of town anyway, short of a full-blown WMD attack by another nation state--and just how likely is that?. Even if terrorists manage to detonate a nuke in a city the effect will be relatively localized. If I survive the blast I can tow my trailer a few miles out of the affected area and hunker down for up to two weeks. If that's not possible I'll go to one of the many shelters that are bound to be springing up all over

Heading for the hills is, IMO, romantic nonsense. While perhaps an enjoyable mental exercise it strikes me as so unlikely as to be a waste of time. (I liked Red Dawn though. <img src="/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" />)

Regards, Vince

That sound very familiar to how our household operates. The two guardians of our “estate” are part of the family and are staying with us. When I bought my place I did so with the idea of how it would hold up to all the “normal” disaster scenarios and would rather be here than a shelter unless the dreaded TEOTWAWKI was upon us!

Since I live in a semi-rural area, I might try to drive away from the main (secondary) highway. I have about 3 places in mind where we could go and campout within about 1 hour away. And there are other places within 2 hours that are very remote. We keep our camping gear together and it wouldn't take long to load up.

How do you know that three of the routes will have no traffic on them?

Craig and Sheepdog, let's say TSHTF and officials evict you from your homes and your pets are forbidden to come with you, say to a local gymnasium or athletic field, etc. You might need a plan for another place to go, etc. Just a thought.

Who said I did not have a plan? Multiple plans like an onion layer after layer!! I just said that I was not planning on bugging as a first option!!

For people who plan on staying do you have a supply of wood, nails, and or screws to board up any windows/rooms/doors that may be damaged or need securing? I think this would help 'secure' your house because once chaos strikes there will be a lot of looting and vandals.

Susan,

The response to your question will vary depending on the local topography, the time of year, weather, and the type of threat or disaster. Being in the Northwest, you are familiar with the threats we can encounter from the weather, terrain, and volcanos. The Midwest, desert areas, East, and Gulf Coast have different scenarios to consider. Having been in disaster planning and response for a major utility, the best advice in most circumstances is to remain at home, unless told otherwise, until the threat is over and the local infrastructure has been restored to safe traveling conditions.

However, as good as we think we are at predicting threats, humbling surprises constantly occur that forces unexpected flight from your home.

When I was a young boy in Central Illinois, we had a very wet spring where there was considerable flooding. Our family was not concerned since we were at a relatively high elevation and not in a flood zone but many others had lost their homes. All temporary shelters, hotels, and motels were full. But it kept on raining. One night part of our new home sank almost out of sight. My parents, brother, sister and I escaped but my first dog was crushed.

We later found out from a very old neighbor, who used to be a coal miner, that the entire area was crisscrossed with long lost coal mine tunnels. A tunnel which ran below our house had become a river when an old air shaft seal had collapsed and started draining many acres of land. The tunnel’s supporting timbers were washed away and the tunnel collapsed. With the force of the rushing water, the debris that fell in from tunnel’s ceiling were also washed away.

For two days, still raining, we could only find shelter in a garage. There was very little we initially could take with us because we did not know what was happening. It is one thing to think the sky is falling yet another not to know where it is safe to walk when the earth below your feet is falling.

I believe that episode made my whole family aware of planning for disasters. We planned for both what we could expect to happen and for the unexpected!

You know, Susan, your post reminds me that I need to get off my can and reevaluate my plan. When I lived in Northern VA, my plan was to Bug Out with my family. My parent's house is pretty close to terrorist targets so I think they should bail if they can, and even hoof it if necessary.

Now, though, since I'm married and moved to a relatively small town, I think I'd Bug In. The area has a number of things that would make it pretty easy, and if my husband and I need to bail, we'd probably just meet at his parent's house in the country.

My only problem is that I'd want my parents and family back home to Bug Out, but I think they'd want to stay, even if they are woefully underprepared for home defense.

When I was a kid growing up on the Redneck Rivera (Gulf Coast) we had little things called hurricanes that would come through from time to time to do structural test on the buildings in the area. Now many of these buildings would fail out right and leave nothing much but a foundation to remind people not to use that style of construction in the future. One such place was a Stop and Rob (Quick Stop Store) that had nothing left but the foundation and the rows of shelves and coolers. Not exactly something you could secure with a piece of plywood and a few nails. The owners however wished to control access to what would otherwise be help your self “shopping” and did it simply and easily with one small employee and one very large shotgun. It had the same effect as all the plywood and nails you could hope to have.
I have many ways to secure my place should it become damaged even though I don’t think it would be a big problem. Right now I lock my doors day and night not that I am afraid someone will break in a steal something. I do it to keep my mastiff from bounding out to guard the whole neighborhood. Should someone come into my house disaster or no disaster they could only hope I am home to rescue them from being sat on by the dog until I get home.

SheepDog- Not to be rude but your 1 dog is no match for a gang that decides your house has something they want... and neither are you with your 1 shotgun with what 4 or 5 shots max? Boarding up your windows not only makes it harder for someone to get in but it leaves you with the element of surprise - no one is gonna see you walking around in there now. Board up your house leave a front and rear exit and mabe a 'secret' one this would help you control the intrudes to some degree so you could cencentrate your efforts.

Well, I hate to be the nasty redneck voice, but....

Bug out bags for folks in an urban or suburban area should, in my humble opinion, be enough to get you to shelter and stay there for a few days until the relief supplies start showing up. Please, I'm begging you, don't run to the "wilds" If you haven't preplanned it. Relief operations would be expecting people to be close to the incident, not 300 miles away. Mine is to get me from where I am to my folks, on foot if needed. I have the advantage in that I can probably count on safe haven, even if it means sleeping in the hay loft, every 10 miles or so on my primary, secondary and tertiary routes.

Let's say, for the sake of arguement, that someone nukes Boston. I'm three hours away if the roads are playing nice. IN those three hours, folks around here will strip the gas stations, grocery stores and everythign else of supplies, becuase we are painfully aware of the fact that most esscential services are resupplied every two to three days. And then, people dig in.

I hate to rain on people's parades, but many rural dwellers still harbour a certain distrust towards city people. (And in many places, it is getting worse, mostly due to property taxes jumping.) I would ask people to leave my family land if I didn't know them, and if I knew them, they would be able to go to the front door. Squatters would be unwelcome unless they could convince me a real hurry that I should let them stay there, and hungry kids wouldn't be enough. (We are talking like a surgeon, and I'd route you the hospital closest.) I'd give you basic first aid items if I had them to spare and you needed them, and I'd let you fill your water bottles from one of the ponds, but that would be it. And I'm a nice guy. A lot of my neighbors would assume you were looters.

I'm not trying to sound like a jerk, but I will say it as I see it. My family puts in a garden for 6 people, 60 would strip it in an hour or less. We have a well, it has a limit. We don't have much space in the house, and most of the land is forested- the last thing we'd need in that scenario is a forest fire started by someone careless. The game is finite. Yes, we have a bit of land. In a city, a couple thousand might live in the same amount of area. But we can not supply that many people.

I'm also assuming that anything that involved people running more than 100 miles would be bad. As in martial law bad.

In almost any disaster situation I would try to shelter in place. If I was away from home I would try to stay put until things settled down before I tryed to make it home - if I thought my home or my stuff would still be there. If there was a man made disaster like a nuclear plant meltdown or a terrorist attack ; biological or nuclear ; and the weather pattern was blowing a cloud of crap my way , I might consider bugging out . It would depend on how far away the thing happened and if I thought there was time to get through the traffic jambs. If I did bug out , where I would go depends on which direction the stuff was coming from. If it was south or west of me I'd head up to Maine , I could get pretty far north on a tank of gas. Depending on the situation I might try to make it to Canada. If something happened to the north I would head down the east coast. In either case , if I stayed home or bugged out , I would try to keep a low profile and not trust anyone. I think if things got bad even a freind or neighbor you thought you could trust would turn on you to save his own skin.

Most of the problem makers around here have already met my dog and want nothing to do with him. Besides that little fact I was just suggesting that there are a lot more ways of going about this than wood and nails. Your post does not say were you are from but I am sure that is coloring your ideas I know my experiences color mine. This is not just theory with me I have been there several times. Vandals and looters would not last very long in the places I talk about. In fact several years ago some hoods from the big city came to show the local element how its done up there. Two days later they were in bags headed back to the big city, they had found out how it?s done in our neck of the woods. You just can?t kick someone?s door in and expect to live through it more than a time or two.
You should read up on Israeli mob control thought it might give you some ideas as to what is possible with little effort or fuss.
Anyone foolish enough to think that I would be dry after hearing a few blast from the Ol 12 would be in for a nice little surprise party held in their honor by the Ol Daddy Dog himself. <img src="/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />

You’re making me homesick!!
I sure miss being out away from anything I live in a small town for the next two years at least but after that we will be headed back to the country.
Hey I bet your neighbors call you and tell you a strange car is headed your way or your aunt or uncle is dropping by as they just passed by their place. People can’t imagine knowing people that live miles away like that.
Those that have not driven an hour each ways to get groceries haven’t a clue what you’re talking about I bet.

Speaking as someone who returned from college unannounced, I REALLY wish my neighbors did that. So do my folks. <img src="/images/graemlins/blush.gif" alt="" />

But they will call you, then the cops, if they only hear one or two gunshots, and if you don't answer, take a look themselves. (If they hear a lot, they figure the range is in use. :P ) And will call you and ask if you are busy because they spotted someone up in the woods at night with a flashlight. Or will come over with thier tractor and pull you car out of the drive way you you find out that donut tires really suck on ice and the drive is plowed four inches skinnier than your car is long...

And happily foist off extra zuchinni on you, and smile when I get back with squash.

Volunteer fire department, to. Very handy.

Yep, I miss it when I'm not at home.

Great topic! Assuming I'm home when TSHTF, like you I'd be stongly inclined to shelter-in-place unless the event involves something that directly threatens me. But I think my reasons are different from those of most folks on the ETS forums. For one thing, with about 2 million other folks in Manhattan proper and only a few bridges/tunnels leading off the island, the lines to bug out would be just horrific -- I'd need an awfully good reason to leave, which means:

• As to natural disasters, I'm on the 23d floor, so flooding isn't really an issue ... if there's a quake I'd stay home for a couple of days (if the structural integrity hasn't been compromised) until the crowds clear out, then head for friends or relatives with homes a little closer to the ground ... my building is supposedly fireproof construction, so structure fire is pretty irrelevant (though the resulting smoke might be a problem) ... and hurricanes, well the bathroom is windowless so no danger from flying glass, and I guess I'll just have to hope that the building was built to code.
• As for terrorism, if it's a field-effect attack (dirty bomb, aerial distribution of smallpox, etc.) I'd have a tough decision between bugging out and just sealing the h--- out of my windows & doors with duct tape & plastic sheeting ... if it's a localized attack (like the WTC or last week's London bombs), I'll bug in unless the attack directly affects me or my apartment.
• In case of civil unrest, well I figure my building's super would arrange for security on the ground floor and/or shut down the elevator (and I figure most looters wouldn't be climbing 22 floors to get to my apartment).

On the other hand, if I'm stuck at the office out in the 'burbs (as happened with both 9/11 and the August '03 blackout), I'd be somewhat more inclined to consider bugging out ... I have a minimal BOB stashed under my desk, including hiking-friendly footwear, and colleagues who have generously offered me shelter when I was stranded those 2 times, so I'd have lots of choices.

Buggin' In is always our #1 choice.

For some of us here on the forum, intermediate scenarios are very complicated - I have community duties, as do many others. Maybe it's bad enough that I order (or they know to because of the situation) the family to bug out, but I need to stay. That turns into a real nail biter to plan. PLAN. That's an important thing - even if "the plan" has to be scrapped or modified, the planning will help. Probably. <shrug> You do what is prudent in advance and deal with it as it comes. If all risk was eliminated from life it would be pretty boring.

Great topic.

Regards,

Tom

This all assumes we are home or can get home when TSHTF and for those of us commuters that work a 40 hour weeks far from the house this is not so likely. This is why EDC, knowledge and practice is so important... and a vehicle kit too if you can get to your vehicle.

Well, only two of the routes I can count on to be minimal traffic. They are gravel farm roads that aren't shown on normal maps, and unless you are looking for them, you're not even going to know they are there. Much of eastern Washington is desolate, with nothing but large dryland wheat farms (although irrigated vineyards are popping up more and more). The other two routes do require some transit on major thoroughfares, unavoidable I'm afraid. Still, there are detours I can take along these routes if need be.

Ultimately I have to agree that bugging out is kinda like a last desperate act. If things really got that bad, I'd probably only be delaying the inevitable anyways. That's why I don't lose any sleep at night worrying about such things. I've done what I can, and I am as ready as my pocketbook will allow right now.

Now when I get back from Baghdad, that's another story to tell...

Sounds like you've got the ultimate security system, got any pic.s. I had two pits for 16 years, and am a fan of all the 'gator jawed breeds. The temperament of the dog has a lot to do with the owner, mine were overgrown lapdogs... unless you grabbed one of the family, then it was chow time.

Troy

A mag. tube extender gets you up to 8, and it's not at all difficult to "reload on the run". Two dogs ARE better than one, and who says you can't have a partner gunning with you???

In a large scale, non-localized, panic-inducing threat, bugging out isn't a very viable option in many cases. Specifically those of us living in heavily populated areas.

Consider for example, there are several million people in the Puget Sound (greater Seattle) area. If they all headed for the hills at once, you are not likely to get very far in any reasonable timeframe unless you had early warning or you already live on the outskirts, or have some other angle (boat, plane nearby).

I don't think this is a very easy problem to solve. Certainly if anyone has a bright ideas (other than move) it would be great to hear them.

In my case, I'm certainly inclined to SIP unless really pushed (house underwater type thing). From that perspective, I think just having a BOB with reasponable provisions would be good enough improve your situation.

-john

Yep, I reached the same conclusion when I was living over there. When I moved out to the east side of the state in '88, I found I had a whole slew of opportunities that just weren't available along the I-5 corridor.

I used to live in Puyallup and work in Issaquah. Imagine my daily commute!!! No way you can bug out over there, unless like you say you have an alternate mode of transport. The only alternative I could come up with was to go to ground, deep, and hope you don't hit the water table too quick.

When I was growing up, there was darn near nothing between our back yard and Mt. Rainer. We'd be out for days in the summer, just cruising the forest without ever seeing anyone unless maybe we crossed a road. You couldn't do that now, urban (and suburban) sprawl has taken over out there. <img src="/images/graemlins/frown.gif" alt="" />

I saw a programme about suviving a nuke which recommended building a shelter within your home, using doors laid against an inside wall and layered with as much mass as you can find in the time. You then sit and cower in this "tent" for about 2 weeks, which is apparently long enough for the fallout to drop to tolerable levels. Having a BOB ready to pull inside the shelter would save some time.