hurricane charley

Posted by: m9key

hurricane charley - 08/11/04 10:31 PM

i'm here in s.fla waiting to see what this is going to do
Posted by: groo

Re: hurricane charley - 08/11/04 11:55 PM

In central florida, we don't usually worry too much about direct hits. This time could be different. Current NHC three day forecast has Charley passing overhead late Friday.


Posted by: MartinFocazio

Re: hurricane charley - 08/12/04 12:31 AM

And now...Bonnie

A one-two hurricane punch.
Posted by: Avatar

Re: hurricane charley - 08/12/04 01:19 AM

M9Key,

At what point in time, and at what (hurricane) strength would you decide to evacuate your area?







Posted by: groo

Re: hurricane charley - 08/12/04 01:44 AM

So I'm wondering where to be when Charley lands. Home and work are 10 minutes apart. Home is a wood frame single story house with no basement. Work is a multistory concrete and steel office building of recent construction. In a "no mandatory evacuation" situation, with just heavy rain and high winds forecast, what would you do?

I could:
  • Stay home. I have supplies there, obvious creature comforts, a bed!
  • Stay at work. Wouldn't be the first all nighter, won't be the last. I can easily hide food/water here. With a little planning, I could be fairly comfortable. There's a small gym with shower. But if the roads become impassible, I'm stuck here.

I guess one way to look at it is, where would I least (most?) like to be stranded. Thoughts?
Posted by: bountyhunter

Re: hurricane charley - 08/12/04 03:20 AM

Groo:

My brother lives in Hollywood, FL and I told him that he should reinforce some part of his residence and anchor that portion with concrete piers buried in the Earth and attached to the reinforced part of the house.

Beyond what I told him, I am not qualified to give you even a good guess.

Good luck.

Bountyhunter
Posted by: m9key

Re: hurricane charley - 08/12/04 03:27 AM

23:00 update looks like west fla which is good im in area east ft lauderdale noaa said maybe not even hurricane warnings but i know what happen in "92"
Posted by: Bugman37

Re: hurricane charley - 08/12/04 11:38 AM

Having seen the distruction wreaked by Isabell, I wouldn't stay if they declared a class 2 or higher. Of course most of Isabell's distruction was because of wet soil, not the high winds per say. I hear it's been pretty wet in the Panhandle of Fl. So, just don't stay near high trees!!!

My 2 cents.
Posted by: Anonymous

Re: hurricane charley - 08/12/04 05:59 PM

Quoted from Accuweather.com:

Quote:
Hurricane Charley, as of 11 AM EDT, was centered at 19.7 north, 81.52west, or about 25 miles north of Grand Cayman. Charley is moving northwest at 17 mph. Estimated central pressure is 983 millibars (29.03 inches). Maximum sustained winds are 90 mph. A hurricane warning is in effect for the Florida Keys, and the southwest Florida coast up to Bonita Beach. A tropical storm warning includes the Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge, to Ocean Reef, and the south Florida mainland to East Cape Sable. The hurricane warning remains in effect for the Cayman Islands. A hurricane watch is in effect for western Cuba and along the west coast of Florida as far north as the Suwanee River. Note from yesterday that Charley has slowed its forward speed. We still think the most likely scenario is that Charley gets picked up by the eastern North America trough, crosses the western end of Cuba tonight, tracks west of Key West tomorrow morning, then turns north-northeast, with a landfall on the west coast of Florida, north of Tampa, tomorrow night, as perhaps a category 2 hurricane.



Yup, we're getting ready here. I'd love to anchor my house with big concrete pilings and cables and stuff, but there are a few drawbacks:

1) I haven't got ten grand to do it.
2) The water table here doesn't even permit BASEMENTS, let alone burying stuff deeper than about 10 feet.
3) Even reinforced buildings get damaged from sustained high winds. I'm not talking about a gust...I'm talking about HOURS of it, which means that erosion/attrition will take a heavy toll on even the strongest buildings if the windspeed is high enough.

So, Sarah and I are doing the best we can with what we've got. We're pretty well prepared and will let you know how well our survival preparations went.

It's good to have these little training exercises to know really how the dynamics are going to go down. We consider them exercises - it keeps panic at bay and allows us to keep the cool-headed survival mindset so essential for the goal of survival.

Good luck to all. We are in Tampa. Looks like we're gonna take it in the chops.

Panz
Posted by: Anonymous

Re: hurricane charley - update - 08/12/04 06:05 PM

And from Weather Service in Ruskin, FL:

Quote:

TBWHLSTBW
WTUS82 KTBW 121559
HLSTBW
FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-121900-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE CHARLEY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1153 AM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

...POTENTIALLY MAJOR HURRICANE HEADED FOR THE SUNCOAST...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON FROM TAMPA BAY
SOUTH...

...THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING
AREAS:

CITRUS HERNANDO
LEVY PASCO

INCLUDING...
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER

...THE HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS...

CHARLOTTE DE SOTO
HILLSBOROUGH LEE
MANATEE PINELLAS
SARASOTA

INCLUDING...
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO TARPON SPRINGS
CHARLOTTE HARBOR
TAMPA BAY

...STORM LOCATION...
AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7
NORTH...81.2 WEST...OR ABOUT 565 MILES SOUTH OF TAMPA. CHARLEY WAS
MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE AT AROUND THIS SPEED WHILE GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 90
MPH...AND SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS THE STORM MOVES OUT OF
THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE GULF. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 983
MB...29.12 INCHES.

...WIND IMPACTS...
CHARLEY IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
AS IT APPROACHES THE SUNCOAST ON FRIDAY...WITH WINDS IN THE INNER
EYEWALL PERHAPS AT LEAST 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...NO
MATTER WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES...CURRENT FORECAST DATA SUGGEST
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH WILL AFFECT ALL AREAS
OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BETWEEN FRIDAY MORNING AND
FRIDAY EVENING.

DETAILS ON SPECIFIC DAMAGE IMPACTS WILL BE PROVIDED AFTER HURRICANE
WARNINGS ARE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
WITH CHARLEY EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...THEN ACCELERATE...ALONG THE
SUNCOAST...THE THREAT OF A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING STORM SURGE IN THE
STORM'S SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS GREAT. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST
THE HIGHEST SURGE WILL OCCUR FROM THE COUNTIES NEAR TAMPA BAY SOUTH
TO LEE COUNTY. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...SPEED...AND INTENSITY
SUGGEST STORM SURGES IN SOME AREAS EQUALING OR EXCEEDING THOSE
EXPERIENCED IN HURRICANE DONNA IN 1960 WHICH MADE LANDFALL IN
SARASOTA COUNTY...OR MORE LIKELY THE 1921 HURRICANE WHICH MADE
LANDFALL IN NORTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY.

THE EXACT LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE SURGE SHOULD BECOME MORE CLEAR
LATER TODAY. FOR NOW...ALL COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE RUSHING TO
COMPLETION ANY LAST MINUTE PREPARATIONS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD A
WARNING BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.

IN SHORT...A SURGE OF 10 OR MORE FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM JUST AFTER LANDFALL. FLOODING MAY BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TIME AND VALUE OF HIGH TIDES ON FRIDAY.

...RAINFALL...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ALL AREAS...THESE RAINS WILL
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES IN RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS.
HOWEVER...IN AREAS NEAR TAMPA BAY WHERE SOME RIVERS ARE IN FLOOD AND
ALL RIVERS ARE RUNNING HIGH...MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
DURING AND AFTER THE PASSAGE OF CHARLEY.

...TORNADO IMPACTS...
THERE IS A RISK OF TORNADOES FROM THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF
CHARLEY...ESPECIALLY 50 MILES OR MORE AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. TORNADOES WOULD BE MOST LIKELY BEGINNING FRIDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WELL EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA FORECAST
OFFICE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 3 PM EDT.


There ya go. Be back at 3p to update.

Panz
Posted by: Anonymous

Re: hurricane charley - 08/12/04 06:12 PM

Groo:

IMHO, I'd stay away from tall concrete and steel buildings...more stuff to crush you or be thrown about and kill you.

Many wood frame houses have withstood generations of hurricanes with only minor damage. The less around you to be blown about, the better off you are.

Worry more about the aftermath. 10 minutes with intact roads and no traffic and emergency services running is a LOT different than with debris-ridden streets, looters and armed predators about, before authority steps in...

..so while considering where to ride the storm out for the storm itself is a consideration...remember that you only have to survive for about 12 hours under those conditions, during which time your actual control over your environment will be restricted to location, location, location.

It will be the aftermath where your preparations and forethought will decide whether you are comfortable or a victim, or somewhere in between.

This is just what I saw in the aftermath of Andrew.

I wasn't there for the storm. I was there for 2 weeks helping keep businesses (banks, actually) from being looted and robbed in the interim before emergency services were established on a consistent basis.

What I'm saying is, where you weather the storm, while important, is equally as important as where and how much your supply stash is.

Secure your gear.

Panz
Posted by: Anonymous

Re: hurricane charley - update - 08/12/04 08:27 PM

Teco done us dirty somehow and lowered their power output. Computer wouldn't boot and my A/C began to fry, so I have already switched over to emergency power. If I didn't have a generator, my power would already be out.

No A/C, but this is nothing new for us. Sarah is gonna be PISSED. The good news is the cold showers will feel really good.

And now, for the weather:

From Ruskin:
Quote:

TBWHLSTBW
WTUS82 KTBW 121906
HLSTBW
FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-122200-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE CHARLEY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
301 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

...INTENSIFYING HURRICANE CHARLEY MAY BE A DANGEROUS THREAT TO THE
SUNCOAST FRIDAY...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED BY 5 PM TODAY...

...THE HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

CHARLOTTE CITRUS
DE SOTO HERNANDO
HILLSBOROUGH LEE
LEVY MANATEE
PASCO PINELLAS
SARASOTA


INCLUDING...
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO SUWANEE RIVER...
CHARLOTTE HARBOR...AND TAMPA BAY.

...STORM LOCATION...
AT 2 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4
NORTH...81.5 WEST...OR ABOUT 515 MILES SOUTH OF TAMPA. CHARLEY WAS
MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE AT AROUND THIS SPEED WHILE GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED
TO 105 MPH...AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS THE STORM
MOVES OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE GULF. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
WITH CHARLEY EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...THEN ACCELERATE...ALONG THE
SUNCOAST...THE THREAT OF A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING STORM SURGE IN THE
STORM'S SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS GREAT. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST
THE HIGHEST SURGE WILL OCCUR FROM THE COUNTIES NEAR TAMPA BAY SOUTH
TO LEE COUNTY. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...SPEED...AND INTENSITY
SUGGEST STORM SURGES IN SOME AREAS EQUALLING OR EXCEEDING THOSE
EXPERIENCED IN HURRICANE DONNA IN 1960 AND THE 1944 HURRICANE EACH OF
WHICH MADE LANDFALL NORTH OF FORT MYERS...OR MORE LIKELY THE 1921
HURRICANE WHICH MADE LANDFALL IN NORTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY.

THE EXACT LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE SURGE SHOULD BECOME MORE CLEAR
LATER TODAY. FOR NOW...ALL COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE RUSHING TO
COMPLETION ANY LAST MINUTE PREPARATIONS THIS AFTERNOON SINCE A
WARNING WILL ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.

IN SHORT...A SURGE OF 10 OR MORE FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM JUST AFTER LANDFALL. FLOODING MAY BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TIME AND VALUE OF HIGH TIDES ON FRIDAY.

...WIND IMPACTS...
CHARLEY IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
AS IT APPROACHES THE SUNCOAST ON FRIDAY...WITH WINDS IN THE INNER
EYEWALL PERHAPS AT LEAST 110 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...NO
MATTER WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES...CURRENT FORECAST DATA SUGGEST
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH WILL AFFECT ALL AREAS
OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BETWEEN FRIDAY MORNING AND
FRIDAY EVENING.

DETAILS ON SPECIFIC DAMAGE IMPACTS WILL BE PROVIDED AFTER HURRICANE
WARNINGS ARE ISSUED AFTER 5 PM TODAY.

...RAINFALL...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF AT LEAST 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ALL AREAS...THESE
RAINS WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES IN RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS.
HOWEVER...IN AREAS NEAR TAMPA BAY WHERE SOME RIVERS ARE IN FLOOD AND
ALL RIVERS ARE RUNNING HIGH...MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
DURING AND AFTER THE PASSAGE OF CHARLEY.

FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

...TORNADO IMPACTS...
A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING FOR AREAS EAST
AND NORTH OF TAMPA BAY. THIS WATCH IS LARGELY INDEPENDENT OF
HURRICANE CHARLEY AND RELATED TO TEH INTERACTION BETWEEN TROPICAL
STORM BONNIE...NOW DECAYING WHILE RACING TOWARD THE GEORGIA
COAST...AND DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND A BUILDING RIDGE OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST.

THERE IS A RISK OF TORNADOES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FROM
THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF CHARLEY...ESPECIALLY 50 MILES OR MORE AWAY
FROM THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. TORNADOES WOULD BE MOST LIKELY
BEGINNING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WELL EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA FORECAST
OFFICE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 PM TODAY


Those of us in Florida are getting ready. Runs are already made on the grocery stores and Home Depot. Go if you think you must, but don't be surprised if you find you're already too late.

Most disasters are "Come as you are" affairs anyway.

Good luck to us all.

Panz
Posted by: MartinFocazio

Re: hurricane charley - 08/12/04 08:46 PM

avoid wood frames if you can
Posted by: X-ray Dave

Re: hurricane charley - update - 08/12/04 08:57 PM

Panzerboy, at some point I'd interested to hear what last minute things you did to prepare.
Posted by: Anonymous

Re: hurricane charley - update - 08/12/04 08:58 PM

I hope that this message finds you and Sarah well, and I hope that the electric co. doesn't blame electricty hoarders for the power flux...

Rena
Posted by: Anonymous

Last Minute Preparations: - 08/12/04 11:25 PM

Lemme see...

13 gallons of gasoline for generator. (24.85)
1 case water from Big Lots (6.00)
2 bags cat food (2x4.85 = 9.70 plus tax)
2 pounds pulled pork from Sonny's Bar B Que (Didn't feel like cooking tonight.) - (20.00)
1 Bottle Sonny's Barbecue Sauce (1.95?)

Cleaned up the yard quickly of all projectile-like items. Filled two 5-gallon plastic jerry cans with water from the hose. Filled 5-gallon bucket and other cleaning buckets with water and left them out.

We'll be filling the bathtub in about an hour.

Other than that, we're doing good.

Things I've learned: 1) My generator runs for 2 hours on its gasoline supply.

2) It won't run my 3.5 ton air conditioner...alas.

3) It WILL run my well pump and refrigerator, as well as most of my other appliances.

4) Idiots key up on FRS radios and run their batteries dead and I get to monitor it when I scan the frequencies.

Oh yes...cleaned out the trunk of my car; Found a box of 20 rounds of .223 ammunition I'd forgotten I had.

We're going to shower tonight, dress comfortably and sleep in our clothes.

I'll keep you posted when I can.

Panz
Posted by: Anonymous

Hurricane Charley Update - 6pm EDT - 08/12/04 11:28 PM

And I quote:

Quote:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
455 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH
EFFECTIVE UNTIL 500 PM EDT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WATCH INCLUDES
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

CHARLOTTE...CITRUS...DE SOTO...HARDEE...HERNANDO...HIGHLANDS...
HILLSBOROUGH...LEE...LEVY...MANATEE...PASCO...PINELLAS...POLK...
SARASOTA AND SUMTER.

SOME CITIES IN THE WATCH INCLUDE...

ARCADIA...BARTOW...BRADENTON...BRANDON...BROOKSVILLE...CAPE CORAL...
CHIEFLAND...CLEARWATER...CLEARWATER BEACH...FORT MYERS...INVERNESS...
LAKELAND...NEW PORT RICHEY...PORT CHARLOTTE...PUNTA GORDA...
SARASOTA...SEBRING...SPRING HILL...TAMPA...VENICE...WINTER HAVEN AND
ZEPHYRHILLS.

...SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE CHARLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM
BONITA BEACH IN LEE COUNTY TO BAYPORT IN HERNANDO COUNTY. A HURRICANE
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BAYPORT TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER IN LEVY
COUNTY.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH HURRICANE CHARLEY.
THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL AGGRAVATE ALREADY SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
MODERATE RIVER FLOODING AS WELL AS MODERATE URBAN FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS...AS WELL AS THOSE
LIVING NEAR SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT
PROPERTY AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.



This sucker is gonna hit us head on.

Fasten your seat belts; It's gonna be a bumpy night.

Panz
<img src="/images/graemlins/cool.gif" alt="" />
Posted by: m9key

Re: hurricane charley - 08/13/04 03:20 AM

alright 23:00 the keys getting squalls we got tropical storm watch just announced for the east coast, hunkering down sit and wait
Posted by: X-ray Dave

Re: Last Minute Preparations: - 08/13/04 03:26 PM

Thanks, for the info, the BBQ sounds good. (hard to get good BBQ in Ca.) Good luck.
Posted by: m9key

Re: hurricane charley - 08/13/04 05:58 PM

cat 4 as of 13:00 and is making landfall in ft myers instead of tampa ft myers not ready
Posted by: Anonymous

Re: hurricane charley - update - 08/13/04 06:41 PM

Quote from the NOAA:

Quote:

Charley is a category 4 hurricane and will make landfall near Port Charlotte, Florida just north of Fort Myers Florida late this afternoon. Tropical Depression number 4 has formed in the far east Atlantic and a tropical wave about 1200 miles east of the Windward Islands could become another Depression within 12-24 hours.

As of 1:00 PM EDT, Hurricane Charley was centered at 25.7 north, 82.5 west, or about 70 miles south southwest of Fort Myers, Florida. Charley is moving north-northwest at 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 145 mph. The central pressure reported by the Hurricane Reconnaissance aircraft was 965 millibars (28.49 inches).

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR FLORIDA'S WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND, GEORGIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO OREGON INLET, NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH AND FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER NEAR THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.

Charley did not lose any strength when it crossed Cuba last night; a wind gust to 124 mph was recorded just west of Havana, near the eye of the storm. The central pressure continues to fall and Charlie is now on a northerly course. The hurricane is being steered by an upper-level trough over the eastern U.S. that extends into the central Gulf of Mexico. This upper-level trough is causing Charley to turn slightly east of north, forcing Charley toward the west coast of Florida. Current model output and current trends suggest this landfall will occur in the Port Charlotte area between 4 PM and 6 PM . Charley is a strong category 4 hurricane. (Category 4 defined as 131-155 mph sustained winds). Charley's forward speed and winds will create a maximum storm surge of 10-13 feet to the right of the eyewall. A storm surge of 5-10 feet is possible south of landfall. This storm surge plus the potential for hurricane force winds for a few hours will create extensive damage over parts of the west coast of Florida and in particular the Fort Myers Port Charlotte area. As Charley tracks north-northeast, surface winds will diminish gradually due to friction over land later tonight. Charlie could still be a hurricane as it moves over northeastern Florida later Saturday morning. This track will spread strong winds and heavy rainfall into central and parts of eastern Florida this afternoon and tonight. 4-8 inches of rain is expected in the path of Charley. The combination of strong winds, heavy rainfall and isolated tornadoes could lead to more damage farther inland. In particular, a large number of older trees might fall due to the track of this hurricane.

We expect Charley to track by very close to Jacksonville, then by late Saturday, over eastern North Carolina. Charley's track northward, and in particular its proximity to the coast, will determine the amount and location of heavy and perhaps flooding rainfall and severe weather along the Atlantic Seaboard this weekend.


Yep, the jetstream was just a TAD stronger than expected so Charley is making landfall early. This bodes well for us in Tampa as he will have to travel OVERLAND to get to us, which should weaken him somewhat.

Those in Fort Myers could be in a world of hurt, however.

Having watched Charley go from a weak Cat 1 to a Cat 4 in 24 hours has me a little scared; Visions of the aftermath of Andrew still burn behind my eyes: seeing street signs on steel poles BENT TO THE GROUND, seeing brick buildings partially destroyed, entire neighborhoods LEVELED.

The satellite animations are also rather disturbing, as the eye of the storm has gotten tighter, down to half its size, and the storm seems to have compacted slightly as it strengthens.

Satellite Animation NOAA

AccuWeather Satellite Animation (Enhanced Infrared)

Hurricane Categories And What They Mean


If you look at Charley, you will note that if measured from the pressure, he's barely a Cat 2. If you measure from the windspeed, he's a Cat 4. I expect his barometric pressure to drop, however, to match the windspeed conditions.

Having seen the effects firsthand of a Cat 5 (Andrew) in 1992, I am...

...a little apprehensive.

Panz
Posted by: Anonymous

Re: hurricane charley - update - 08/13/04 06:50 PM

ADDENDUM TO THIS POST: (Since I can't edit it)

TECO did NOT do us Dirty. My own thorn tree did, its weight finally overloading the power service from the pole to the pipe on the top of my house; The exposed "Neutral" cable snapped, which is why the voltages were good without load, but the moment load was applied, voltages dropped faster than a..(insert perverted prostitute reference here).

I found this out only after I talked to my neighbors to note that nobody else was having power problems. I called TECO.

They came out LAST NIGHT AND PUT IN A NEW SERVICE DROP...

Cut out most of the old thorn tree with a nifty chainsaw-on-a-pole, took out the old cable, and ran NEW cable from the power pole to my house.

That's right. With a Hurricane imminent, the power linemen were out doing right by me.

Kudos to TECO. I have a brand new drop with which to weather this storm. Apologies for jumping the gun, ESPECIALLY considering how fast they fixed a problem caused, indirectly, by my own stupidity.

Just watching two linemen do THAT much work in less than an hour and getting me back online gives me solid confidence that no matter WHAT happens, power will be restored as fast as humanly possible. Those guys were great.

Ok, enough gushing. Just had to be said.

Panz
<img src="/images/graemlins/blush.gif" alt="" />
Posted by: bountyhunter

Re: Last Minute Preparations: A/C tips - 08/13/04 07:32 PM

Panzerboy:

I like redundency in my A/C (Easy for me since I am in the business.) options.

I have an undersized (18,000 btu in a house that requires at least 30,000 btu.) central A/C, a 5,000 btu bedroom window unit, and an 8,000 btu standby window unit sitting in the basement.

I purposely undersized the central air unit so that it would run for longer periods of time and remove humidity first and foremost and cool the air. On a 92 degree F. day in Wisconsin (We are not as humid as Florida.), the indoor temperature in the house will be 82 degrees F.and the central air will be running continuosly. If you walk into the house from the outside, the immediate sensation you will feel is the sweat literally flashing off of your skin as the dry house interior looks for moisture.

The fewer on-off cycles of your compressor motor, the less wear on your system, and the lower your electricity bills. Something a lot of people don't know is that power companies have to be capable for the peaks caused when electric devices initially start up which can be as high as 30% more than their constant speed usage. They have a way of figuring this into your bill, and you will pay more for an oversized unit that starts and stops often than you will for smaller sized unit that runs all the time.

The other thing that people don't realize is that in A/C cooling, BIGGER IS NOT BETTER. It is sold this way because the average contractor does not want an unhappy customer who does not feel cool enough with an A/C installation. A/C of today respond to temperature, not humidity. With energy concerns and smart home technology, that is changing although way too slowly. Stop and consider this easy to administer test. Go out on a hot day where you are uncomfortable and have someone throw a pail of cold water on you; feels great. As you stand there, your body heats up the water and you start to feel clammy. You may still feel somewhat cool, but you will feel clammy. Another pail of water and you are cool again, but you get back to clammy real fast. If you were able to go into a moisture free room after being out in hot humidity and the room was the same temperature as the outdoors, you would still feel cooler because your perspiration would be evaporating and your body would be cooling itself more efficiently.

Turning on an oversized A/C cooling unit is like the above example. The room gets cooled in a hurry, the thermostat shuts off and the humidity is still in the house. Because the house gets cooled down in a hurry and cold air holds less moisture than hot air, and the A/C unit did not run long enough to condense the water at the coils, you end up having the water condensing in the house itself. Now you have liquid water, usually at junctions where warm moist air is coming into the house and you end up with mold, "A/C colds", that preceived "A/C smell", and you wait for that next cold blast of air that you think will make you be more comfortable.

If you can afford it, the next time you install an A/C unit, either get a school educated (A real school, not some of these quicky education camps whose only purpose is to supply low paid quicky installers who couldn't figure heat gain or load if their life depended on it.) technician who will charge you for a detailed analysis of your needs, give you his computations when you pay him and explain how he arrived at those computations so that you can check them out with a second opinion. Then install a dual A/C system with each unit running seperately or together depending on wet bulb (Humidity) temperature, or one with a dehumidifier built into the total system. With a dual system you can have one of the condensors running continuosly to remove moisture and if the temperature is too high, the other one kicks in to help. Have them made odd (Example: For a 36,000 btu home requirement, one should be 12,000 btu and the other 24,000 btu.) with computer controls determining based on humidity and temperature which one should run or if both should run. The beauty of this is on a cold clammy night you could have the small one running to remove the humidity, but it would be too small to cool the house. Another advantage is that if one unit breaks down, you will have partial A/C until the broken one is repaired.

In the meantime, buy a window unit that your generator can operate for the main living area in your house and isolate that area with closed doors or hanging blankets so you can be comfortable in at least one room of the house.

My brother wants me to come to Florida as he thinks I could make a fortume in A/C by being the contractor (Bad knees don't allow me to install much.) and consultant, but I have caregiver responsibilities up here that come first.

Good luck!

Bountyhunter
Posted by: Anonymous

Re: Last Minute Preparations: A/C tips - 08/13/04 08:34 PM

I didn't really go into my situation; However, I agree that you can make a fortune in AC down here.

My unit DOES run all the time, as my home has terrible insulation. For me, bigger IS better because the smaller unit just wasn't cutting it. At all.

As for now, I have all the vents in half the house closed off, a bigger drop installed in my computer room so our computers don't overheat, and vents only open into the enclosed area of the house that contains the return. The thermostat is set low enough that the unit runs constantly. It helps that the thermostat is in the part of the house that's closed off. I merely set it to a few degrees below its ambient temperature and run the A/C.

I am familiar with many of the concepts you describe. I had a TECO representative come in and do a thorough analysis of my current AC System and needs (It was a Mammoth 2.5 ton Water-To-Air unit, which, while relatively efficient by itself, becomes an energy hog when you're on a well pumping water to a system that has been gink-rigged to open-flow water at full pressure all the time it's running, meaning that the energy consumption of the 1200 watt well pump also running constantly to supply the A/C has to be factored into the efficiency of the A/C system)...even with all that mess, it had a SEER rating of 8.

I now have a straight-cool system with a SEER rating of 12 that is finally actually keeping my computer room cool enough so we don't fry our AMD's.

Window units, while a wonderful idea, are out, as we have casement windows in this house, with separate panes of glass 11" x 14.5" in the casements. What we HAVE considered, however, is a portable unit that vents into the attic that would technically live in the Computer Room (Our "Lifeboat" of our house in a storm) that could be run off of the generator.

Believe you me, we have indeed considered that. However, we just dropped a bunch of money for a decent A/C unit. It will be probably at least a year before we can afford to do anything else equipment-wise.

My next step will be to blow in some insulation so the cooling system will run even more efficiently.

Much for the reasons you describe, 85 degrees and humid is a heck of a lot more miserable than 100 degrees and dry.

But I've got my temperature maintenance system adapted to where it does what it's supposed to do and I'm happy with it. I realize that it makes professionals wince and roll their eyes but I've learned to adapt.

And I requested the 3 ton upgrade, knowing full well my conditions and needs. I wasn't sold a bill of goods. At first, the A/C guy recommended against it until he came in and observed exactly what I just described, then he helped me get exactly what I want.

He used to maintain the old water-to-air monstrosity I used to have; Let me tell you how happy he was to rip that thing out and put in something decent.

Come on down to Florida and teach me how to be an A/C tech. I could use the education AND the money!

Panz
Posted by: m9key

Re: hurricane charley - 08/14/04 01:32 AM

florida devastation prayers go out
Posted by: bountyhunter

Re: Last Minute Preparations: A/C tips - 08/14/04 01:33 AM

Panzerboy:

Be careful with insulation installation.

Mold is becoming such a big problem because people think they can overrule Mother Earth and put in plastic and other impenetrable barriers to stop moisture. It ain't going to happen!

Go with insulation that breathes and although it may not be as efficient, it beats the hell out of tearing down a house that has mold culture behind all the walls.

On a "This Old House" show they showed a house being built in Switzerland. The thing that caught my eye and attention was how they built the exterior wall leaving bottom and top openings for air flow. If I ever build a house or addition, I intend to put up such outside walls. Technology that works with nature is better than trying to fight with nature.

My personal belief with no scientific backing that I know of would be to paint the inside walls with a good latex paint and leave non-breathing vapor barriers completely out of the picture.

Bountyhunter
Posted by: Eugene

Re: Last Minute Preparations: A/C tips - 08/14/04 02:45 AM

Don't forget the ceiling fans also. We just have a couple window A/C units but after I installed a couple ceiling fans those window AC units can almost keep the whole house cool if I wanted to. Before the fans we would have to keep the doors shut to keep the cold air in those rooms. Also don't forget the window coverings, keeping the curtains closed to keep the bright afternoon sun out so it doesn't heat up everything helps out too, plus you get to run around the house with fewer clothes <img src="/images/graemlins/smile.gif" alt="" />
Posted by: Anonymous

And, it's over. - 08/14/04 03:34 AM

Well, considering my house was built in 1948, with walls of textured white plaster, I haven't even CONSIDERED painting anything.

But the insulation I was planning on using was the blown-in stuff. My attic is open to the air through the roof vents, and I also have an Attic Fan (original equipment before A/C) for summertime cooling, which received extensive use when the A/C was out earlier this summer.

But I agree. I tend to work with mother nature, having seen firsthand what happens when you get arrogant and try to compete with her.

Speaking of which, I view Charley passing me by with a mixture of disappointment and relief.

Back to the same-old, same-old. Had my Hurricane Vacation with Sonny's Barbecue...now it's back to Macaroni and Cheese.

I mean, who'd a thunk it? Charley makes landfall and the first thing he wants to do is go to Disney World?

Tourist!

Panz
Posted by: groo

Re: hurricane charley - 08/14/04 04:09 AM

Eye passed nearly directly overhead. Around 9:45 EDT, things were very... exciting. <img src="/images/graemlins/smile.gif" alt="" />

Now, it's blowing a little, and sprinkling a little, but I can hear crickets, and cars in the distance. I just checked... I lost some shingles, and there are branches everywhere, but apparently no major damage that I can see. Power's out but I'm well Equipped, so that isn't a problem.

Anyone else in Florida?


Posted by: RayW

Re: hurricane charley - 08/14/04 09:50 AM

No power here either, east of orlando, was not under the eye but in the neighborhood. Lots of trees and branches down, will be running the chainsaw for a few days i think. But no damage done to the trailer, yes i am trailer trash and no i didn't stay here during the blow. Hope the rest of our Florida ETS family came through ok.
Posted by: bountyhunter

Re: And, it's over. - 08/14/04 05:31 PM

Panzerboy:

Called my brother late last night in Hollywood, FL and they didn't get touched at all.

He, wife and child did decide to bug out and came back home a few hours before I called.

He lucked out as he didn't have plywood and was depending on taped windows with cardboard covering.

I am going to have to send him some money so he has precut plywood sitting in his garage all the time and advise him to put threaded inserts in his window framing for easy and faster covering if he should need to do it again.

Bountyhunter
Posted by: Avatar

Re: And, it's over. - 08/14/04 06:13 PM



Anyone:

I have a question about covering windows and doors during these storms. Just how sealed up do you want the house to be?

I have friends in Orlando who had designed and made custom cut metal "shutters" for their house.

Yesterday was the first (and hopefully the last) time they had occasion to use them. These shutters are not permanet and are designed to put over the windows and French Doors by screwing them into the wood around the windows and glass doors.

My friend told me that during the highest part of the winds that the metal shutters would bow outward, and then relax, and force air back through the sealed doors. The draperies by those doors would billow out with the force.

Shouldn't there be some opening left when someone applies either wood or metal over windows and /or doors? I'm thinking that the objective is to simply protect the glass , not trying to seal off the opening.

Should air vents be put into the wood or metal coverings, or would this make them weaker?



Posted by: Anonymous

Re: And, it's over. - 08/14/04 07:39 PM

There are many schools of thought on what will work in a hurricane; Many methods that are adequate and even amazingly effective in lower categories will only provide more fodder for the devastation evident in a Cat 5.

Best bet? Hire a structural engineer and get his recommendation. But that takes money I can't afford.

I definitely agree that precut, prefab, Just-Bolt-It-On shutters are much more desirable than trying to make them under the time constraint of an impending hurricane. Drawback: Have a place to store these things because you may only use them once or twice in a DECADE. This is only the second time I've had to sticky up my windows (We don't use tape...we use clear Shelf Paper because it goes on fast and comes off without leaving residue) since I've moved to FL back in 1990.

Given a choice, I'd have probably used some nifty clips I saw Home Depot selling years ago that allow a board to bite into the sides of inset windows...in my case, into mortar and stone, thus holding it in place. Haven't seen them in years however.

If you can afford it, protection is good. Have a place and a method to store the shutters long-term, however, without compromising rapid deployment (Rapid meaning full deployment in 4 hours or so) yet protecting the shutters from rust and rot is an absolute must.

Panz
Posted by: NealO

Re: And, it's over. - 08/14/04 07:40 PM

Covering doors and especially windows serves two purposes: 1) keep windblown debris from breaking in, and 2) keeping high winds out.

If hurricane force winds enter most buildings, they have enough force to create their own exit, e.g., through the roof.

Most buildings are destroyed from the indside out, once a protective shell has been penetrated, e.g., a window has been broken out.

"Vents" in hurricane shutters have no benefits, and only serve to weaken the protective shell around a building.

Andrew went 60 miles south of me when I lived on the SE coast.

/Neal
Posted by: Anonymous

Re: And, it's over. - 08/17/04 09:00 PM

Hey, Panz,

I'm just getting caught up with the posts after a week out of town, glad to hear you and Sarah made it through O.K. I'm hoping all our friends/fellow posters made it through with out any more than inconvenience, and prayers go out to those that didn't.

Troy
Posted by: NealO

Re: And, it's over. - 09/02/04 06:48 PM

Regarding hurricane shutters:

Portion of NOAA Hurricane FAQs