Statistics and you

Posted by: TeacherRO

Statistics and you - 03/04/21 06:42 PM

Being realistic, its unlikely you be forced from your home into the woods to life off the land for a week. (Or any similar scenario.) Its popular, but very unlikely. Take a look at the last ten events in your ares -- hurricanes, storms, etc.
How much of the population was forced to camp in the woods?
Pretty close to 0.

BOB goes to the jungle and TEOTW scenarios are popular...and wildly unlikely.

I like to use the past decade as a guide -- if an event happened in my area and how often -- and plan for likely events; not black swans.

My kits are mostly focused on getting to a safe(r) location and then...going to work.
Posted by: hikermor

Re: Statistics and you - 03/05/21 03:18 AM

Your point is well made but there are complexities and nuances to the "bugout" situation. Being equipped to stay in the woods devoid of any amenities gives you a range of options and expands your choice

I keep citing my recent bugout experience - Mrs. hikermor,our cat,and i departed swiftly before a rapidly spreading fire. We spent what was left of the night down by the beach, sleeping n our cars. I had thought we might roll out on the sand, but thee winds were extreme. The next day we looked for a likely spot. We had the ability to camp, but lucked into a very nice motel for three nights and had a rather pleasant experience This seems typical of evacuations in SoCal today. People leave an area and stay with friends, relatives, or rent a room someplace - the formal refugee centers are lightly patronized.

Still, the next time I need to evacuate I will be ready to do fairly primitive camping. You never know.

Actually, my emeergency bag is not all that different from what I carry on a normal backpacking/ field project excursion. It's all stuff I use regularly..
Posted by: KenK

Re: Statistics and you - 03/05/21 03:55 PM

I have never been a big prepper. Our plans usually involved being able to leave work, get the kids from school or daycare when they were young, and get home. When out in the woods I traveled light - carrying on me a cell phone, folding knife, light, sparker, and a whistle, and in a daypack adding additional first aid, poncho, water bottle (usually filled), compass, GPS, headlamp, batteries, fixed blade knife, Leatherman, paracord, toilet paper, bandanas, ... and probably more. Most of my outdoor time as an adult was as a Boy Scout leader in the "wilderness" of Illinois - a far cry from the wilderness of many other states.

Twice now we've had storms knock out power for 5-7 days - once when we lived in the far northwest Chicago suburbs and again after we retired/moved to northeast Wisconsin.

At our Illinois property the two biggest issues we faced were (1) obtaining sufficient water for our horses - eventually we contacted our local township and they brought water in for our horses, and (2) limited ability to use our toilets because without electricity a septic system lift pump was inoperative - we took a lot of trips to the local McDonalds and used garbage bags in a 5 gallon bucket as a last resort.

At our Wisconsin property we chose to install a natural gas powered whole house generator, so we were able to live relatively unaffected for seven days without power. Our horse barn water and electricity run from the house, so it was also covered by the generator. We turned the generator off at night and when we left the house. It was expensive ($7K) but well worth it as the days rolled on.

Luckily, both of these outages were during the summer. The cold disaster in the southern U.S. states made us think about home heating alternatives in the event that we lost natural gas. If we had electricity, then we'd run several electric space heaters.

If we don't have electricity, then we'd pretty much be out of luck (even our fireplace runs on natural gas and uses an electric fan). We wouldn't be able to leave the horses, so we'd have to stay on property. I'd probably had to drain the water pipes, pour RV antifreeze into the toilets and drains, and bundle up in the house. Getting water for our horses would become our biggest concern, because even the 100 gallon water trough would quickly freeze over in winter without a heater. We'd have to turn to our city or county for help.
Posted by: brandtb

Re: Statistics and you - 03/05/21 04:54 PM

Originally Posted By: TeacherRO
. . . .

How much of the population was forced to camp in the woods?
Pretty close to 0.

BOB goes to the jungle and TEOTW scenarios are popular...and wildly unlikely.

I like to use the past decade as a guide -- if an event happened in my area and how often -- and plan for likely events; not black swans.

. . . .


Did you ever hear about the statistician who drowned in an average of 6 inches of water?
Posted by: Tjin

Re: Statistics and you - 03/05/21 05:03 PM

Your local emergency management organization should have risk assessments. Generally a pretty solid start.

Causes of death statistics are generally good for what gets you killed.

As evacuations; it's a great excuse to go way further and go on a trip. Optional is doing remote work. I never really see the point in just waiting. Lots of opportunity loss.
Posted by: chaosmagnet

Re: Statistics and you - 03/06/21 04:33 AM

My primary emergency kit bag is designed around what I think is the worst survivable emergency for me: Crashing my car spending three days in a snow bank before rescue. Thereís one of these bags in each car. Iím much happier to ride out an emergency in my home or a hotel.
Posted by: Ren

Re: Statistics and you - 03/06/21 02:04 PM

Far less exciting here.

Had a blizzard in 1982, snowed continuously for 36 hours, was over 2 meters deep of snow around the house with fall and drift. Could tunnel out of the house. Apparently drift was 6 meters high in some places.

Local river burst it's banks in 1979. Flood didn't get within 2 miles of the house.

Storms haven't hit directly here in over 40 years. Great Storm of 1987 landed in Cornwall and went across South England. Peak gusts recorded over 130mph. The Cyclone Daria in 1990 also left the house unaffected.

Our utilities have been down for planned maintenance longer than any accident/disaster over the years.
Posted by: quick_joey_small

Re: Statistics and you - 03/06/21 05:13 PM

The survival kits I've seen don't have much for living in the woods. They are more a utility kit. Doug even describes his fishing items as 'the entertainment items'.
Most of the items are suitable for multiple types of events. Wire, cord, light, candles, the ability to start a fire....
One could be glad of them on a roadtrip.
Qjs
Posted by: hikermor

Re: Statistics and you - 03/06/21 05:25 PM

Reading your account, I wonder why did my ancestors leave the British Isles?? Certainly wasn't because of the weather......