Flatten the Curve

Posted by: Michael2

Flatten the Curve - 03/15/20 03:17 AM

Good information here;

Flatten the curve - COVID-19

Some key points:

  • Donít panic but do not brush off the public health warnings of Coronavirus.
  • This is not normal flu. For most people, infection results in a mild but still transmissible illness; that is how it spreads. Those that get severe illness are hit really hard.
  • Assume that the virus is already in your city / town / workplace / church / etc.
  • The US healthcare system is not well enough prepared. No one is.
  • There is hope. Youíre it. Thatís the work. You can help by following as much as possible of the following guidance. The earlier the precautions are taken, the more precautions are taken, the more lives are saved. It is that simple.
Posted by: KenK

Re: Flatten the Curve - 03/15/20 04:14 AM

I think not many people understand that these efforts are simply trying to lower the maximum number of critically ill people at a given time, so as not to overwhelm the existing healthcare services.

I did hear one person say something about a new virus tends to be less dangerous as time goes by. They didn't say why/how that happens. I've not heard that from anyone else. I don't believe they were referring to the eventual development of a vaccine.
Posted by: Chisel

Re: Flatten the Curve - 03/15/20 05:10 AM

A local busnessman got onto social media and was complaining about having no customers. He said : who will pay the salaries ? Who will pay for this ??

Sad as it may be, he should realize that if the virus strikes his customers, they will be absent from his business for much longer time, and maybe forever. And if the virus strikes him, the business will be the least of his worries.
Posted by: Phaedrus

Re: Flatten the Curve - 03/15/20 08:18 AM

Great resource! Thanks!
Posted by: hikermor

Re: Flatten the Curve - 03/15/20 01:52 PM

Off the top of my head, a virus may become less dangerous because the more susceptible members have been eliminated from the population and the virus is infecting those more resistant. It is called natural selection.
Posted by: Russ

Re: Flatten the Curve - 03/15/20 02:39 PM

That would imply that the virus is discriminating. [sarc/on] For a virus to discriminate based on race, gender, age, ACE2 levels or overall health is surely politically incorrect and we canít have that ó totally unacceptable. Thatís not who we are. [sarc/off].

Iím one of those over-60 guys whoís been doing everything wrong and if Iíve gotten this thing I havenít noticed any symptoms. Breath in deeply and hold it. Any discomfort or irritation in your lungs? No? Nope, none at all. Then you should be good to go.

Critical Information On How To Protect Yourself From The Coronavirus
King World News
https://kingworldnews.com/alert-out-of-i...he-coronavirus/
Quote:
... From member of the Stanford hospital board. This is their feedback for now on Corona virus:

The new Coronavirus may not show sign of infection for many days. How can one know if he/she is infected? By the time they have fever and/or cough and go to the hospital, the lung is usually 50% Fibrosis and itís too late.

Taiwan experts provide a simple self-check that we can do every morning. Take a deep breath and hold your breath for more than 10 seconds. If you complete it successfully without coughing, without discomfort, stiffness or tightness, etc., it proves there is no Fibrosis in the lungs, basically indicates no infection. In critical time, please self-check every morning in an environment with clean air. ...
More at the link.

Okay, itís Sunday morning ó time to go out for breakfast. [Surely heís not serious. Actually Shirley, I think he is]

Okay, maybe tomorrow, the panic shoppers are clogging the parking lots trying to hoard toilet paper...
Posted by: Russ

Re: Flatten the Curve - 03/15/20 02:45 PM

What Does ĎSocial Distancingí Mean? - The Atlantic

Hmmm, the article doesnít mention lap-dances...

ĒCovid-19 Pandemic To Crash Sex Worker Incomeď

Itís just a matter of priorities...
Posted by: Michael2

Re: Flatten the Curve - 03/15/20 02:52 PM

Quote:
I did hear one person say something about a new virus tends to be less dangerous as time goes by. They didn't say why/how that happens. I've not heard that from anyone else. I don't believe they were referring to the eventual development of a vaccine.


The person may be referring to what is described here:

Coronavirus will linger after the pandemic ends. But it wonít be as bad.

I think it just means that the people that survive will have full or partial immunity against future infection. This means that if there are later waves of the virus (or closely related versions), the stress on the healthcare system won't be as bad as the first time around.
Posted by: Ren

Re: Flatten the Curve - 03/15/20 04:39 PM

The virus is under natural selection too.

The more dangerous variants decline as they're more likely to kill their hosts. Or their hosts feel ill enough to isolate, so can't spread as much.

And the milder forms become more dominant.

But not an expert.
Posted by: hikermor

Re: Flatten the Curve - 03/15/20 04:40 PM

I am personally involved in efforts to flatten the curve (lengthy war story).

Since December, i have been prepping for, and looking forward to, a right hip replacement. Last week I had a meeting with the surgeon who was delayed because of a hospital staff meeting re coronavirus.

There was an issue with my clotting time, and he told me to get with my primary care doc and straighten things out. Called their office and got an appointment right away for this Monday.

About 4 PM the office called me, cancelling the appointment. They will contact me again when normal operations are resumed. The response was 'yes" when I asked if this had anything to do with CV. In the interim, the county health department had declared a local emergency, due to CV. Currently my new hip is in an indefinite limbo.

My take on this is that they are clearing the decks (halting all or most elective procedures, etc) in anticipation of a sharp increase in CV cases.

Now I would much rather go through with my procedure, but it makes sense to me to alter priorities to deal with a much greater threat, especially when I see that my chances of fatality from CV are significantly greater than you young folks....
Posted by: Ren

Re: Flatten the Curve - 03/15/20 04:49 PM

A hospital here (south Wales, UK) received the first CV patient in Wales a week or so ago.
Immediately caused disruption, 3 anaesthetists had to self isolate, putting the theatres into a staff shortage situation. Normal planned routines cancelled. Urgent and emergency operations only.
Situation went up the chain, and now it's now nationwide policy.
Staff retraining for makeshift intensive care duty (unfamiliar PPE and kit) ready for the wave.
Posted by: Michael2

Re: Flatten the Curve - 03/15/20 04:52 PM

Quote:
Okay, itís Sunday morning ó time to go out for breakfast.


Here's another opinion:

Please, Donít Go Out to Brunch Today

"Gathering in groups right now is selfish and puts the lives of others at risk."

"Continuing the weekend tradition of packing the bars is selfish and reckless during this pandemic. It will speed up the spread of the virus, increasing the suffering for older and more vulnerable people and for the medical workers who will be caring for them. Though the virus appears dramatically less fatal for those under 50, younger, healthier people can still contract the virus, not show symptoms and infect at-risk populations."

"Social distancing is a responsibility. Itís not about panicking and quarantining to protect oneís self, but to protect others around you."
Posted by: clearwater

Re: Flatten the Curve - 03/15/20 05:06 PM

Have two family members, one of who works within a block of the nursing home in Kirkwood WA where the US infections were first noticed, that are at home with lung infections. Doctor wouldn't see or even call back so their mom took them to urgent care. Urgent care wouldn't test them for CV19 or even for the flu, but said to go home and stay there. Both have asthma so are feeling pretty bad. They are in their 20's, Regular inhalers weren't helping so they got a special steroid version that insurance wouldn't cover at $350 each. Praying for them.

I have been trying to contact my DR for a medication adjustment, but no response for a couple of days. The triage nurse is the only person I have been able to talk too. She said keep trying, also to stay away from urgent cares and ER's. I am in Eastern WA.
Posted by: Russ

Re: Flatten the Curve - 03/15/20 05:46 PM

Michael2 ó A complete quote would have shown that to be levity. One thing we should try to keep in stressful times is our sense of humor.
Posted by: Michael2

Re: Flatten the Curve - 03/15/20 06:00 PM

Quote:
One thing we should try to keep in stressful times is our sense of humor.


Absolutely! A sense of humor is definitely a good survival tool.

It's worth remembering, however, that a lot of people are confused and not as well-informed as the regulars on this forum. There are also many that are slow to realize the seriousness of the situation. Under those circumstances, it's worth giving a second thought to posts that minimize the nature of the problem or suggest that it is all just a big joke.
Posted by: Russ

Re: Flatten the Curve - 03/15/20 06:38 PM

And a complete quote would have included information indicating that COVID-19 is serious and that we should all be checking for lung issues on a daily basis. Just because youíre negative today doesnít mean youíll be negative tomorrow.

COVID-19 is wild now, itís virtually everywhere. Does this mean we should go all stop? No, it means we need to take precautions. Iíve always avoided large crowds and never do Sunday brunch; people eating off a buffet line is simply a non-starter. I do occasionally do breakfast ó just me ó and the excellent short order cook does my eggs just right. Monday will be better though, fewer people in the restaurant and the parking lot will have more places to park. Hopefully the panic buying will be done.
Posted by: raptor

Re: Flatten the Curve - 03/15/20 07:00 PM

Some good info worth sharing:

Lessons from the ebola outbreaks from Mike Ryan:
"Be fast, have no regrets." ; "Speed trumps perfection."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gi69S1UNAVA&t=1847


Two podcasts by Sam Harris with experts:

#190 - How Should We Respond to Coronavirus?
A Conversation with Nicholas Christakis
https://samharris.org/podcasts/190-respond-coronavirus/

#191 - Early Thoughts on a Pandemic
A Conversation with Amesh Adalja
https://samharris.org/podcasts/191-early-thoughts-pandemic/
Posted by: clearwater

Re: Flatten the Curve - 03/15/20 09:07 PM

More symptoms from family who likely have it. Toes turning blue from lack of oxygen.
Posted by: raptor

Re: Flatten the Curve - 03/15/20 09:27 PM

Also Joe Rogan has an informative podcast with expert Michael Osterholm on this topic.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw

Sorry if this has already been posted on this forum.
Posted by: chaosmagnet

Re: Flatten the Curve - 03/16/20 03:07 AM

Iíve canceled my annual physical to free my doctor and his staff for more urgent work, and to keep myself away from his waiting room full of sick people.
Posted by: Phaedrus

Re: Flatten the Curve - 03/16/20 05:35 AM

We're under orders to work from home for the extent of the 'crisis' (I can't think of a better word right now). I'm already getting cabin fever as I attempt to limit trips out of the house and avoid contact with groups of people. We got some cold and snow the last couple days which sucked; it would be great to run up into the mountains for a couple days to recharge my batteries mentally but I'm still getting over a pretty nasty fall on top of the weather. mad

Good luck to us all!
Posted by: LCranston

Re: Flatten the Curve - 03/16/20 01:51 PM

a good article on how the flattening works...


https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

This is not specific to corona virus, but the principle is sound
Posted by: KenK

Re: Flatten the Curve - 03/16/20 04:06 PM

Originally Posted By: chaosmagnet
Iíve canceled my annual physical to free my doctor and his staff for more urgent work, and to keep myself away from his waiting room full of sick people.


Or did you just want to distance your prostate from the doctor's icy grip? Hah!!

Stay healthy.
Posted by: KenK

Re: Flatten the Curve - 03/16/20 04:09 PM

Originally Posted By: LCranston
a good article on how the flattening works...


https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

This is not specific to corona virus, but the principle is sound


This is a must read/view article!!

Keep in mind that the objective is not so much to reduce the total number of people who eventually get infected - it will likely move throughout the population, but rather the decrease the number of people with symptoms - especially those requiring hospitalization - at a given time, so we don't overwhelm the currently available health services.
Posted by: Chisel

Re: Flatten the Curve - 03/16/20 06:35 PM

Quote:
Or did you just want to distance your prostate from the doctor's icy grip? Hah!!

Stay healthy.


LOL

Actually I was worried about prostate serious stuff, but turned out less serious.
However, while they were checking things right and left, they found two cysts (one at each kidney). Doctor said we will check every 3-6 months . If they are growing we will operate, if not just keep watching.

That was before this CV mess.
Posted by: Chisel

Re: Flatten the Curve - 03/16/20 06:45 PM

Back to flattening the curve

What I am doing is isolate myself , and the family (as much as I can , without upsetting anyone). Will be absent from any social occasion, even if my brothers insist on it , which I doubt.

Planning for one occasion though. It is Mother day within the house on March 21(shhhh. mom still doesn't know the surprise). I hope the occasion will add a few smiles in the house. One son, whom I am worried about had luckily been forced to work online at home, and his gym has closed down . Big relief. Other son still no word on going home but I am not worried about him. He is not very social to begin with.

Me ??
I am an INTJ. Most enoyable moments of my life when I am left alone in my few feet of home office. It is like heaven.
Posted by: clearwater

Re: Flatten the Curve - 03/16/20 07:53 PM

Interesting to see how slowly the ship turns.
People at my wife's work (local gov) were told only non essential workers should come to work, everyone else telecommute. How ever the next level down supervisors didn't give concrete direction. My wife found there was to be a big pizza party in her office to gather all the field workers and tell them how things were going to work at home. She chased out the supervisor before he could start up the party. Today she learned one of those field workers tested positive and another co-wrokers husband also has tested +.

No mention in the newspapers yet of those two.
Posted by: Michael2

Re: Flatten the Curve - 03/16/20 09:08 PM

The six SF Bay Area counties have issued a general "Shelter-in-place" order.

(Here, I'm afraid, we are a bit further along the curve than some other places in the country.)

All non-essential businesses are closed and non-essential travel prohibited.
This is the text of the order for San Mateo County:

Order of the Health Officer of the County of San Mateo

Posted by: clearwater

Re: Flatten the Curve - 03/17/20 05:02 PM

Well, my son is out of school now, when he went yesterday to get instruction on how to do his work online he found out 5 of his high school friends have tested positive for the virus. None of them are showing in the statistics yet. Don't know why communication is so bad between agencies. Many more of his friends were already out with CV19 like symptoms but couldn't be tested for lack of tests.

The way this was handled by the CDC is really shameful. They refused to let researchers that had data and tests, to proceed- ordered them to stop. Turf wars I suppose.

Local health system is already saying they don't have enough ventilators nor even bed space even tho officially there are only 3 known cases in the whole county. They are avoiding jailing non-violent criminals to prevent crowding. People are being told to not put wet wipes and paper towels down the toilet to avoid plugging up their own pipes as well as the city's. They are to go in the trash to be burned and turned to electricity at the waste to energy plant. Plans are also being discussed to use the incinerator for bodies if we get to the state where funeral homes are overwhelmed. I suppose this will please some folks of dark humor and a recycling minded outlook.

One conundrum is how to provide safe daycare for the children of medical, sanitation and emergency services personnel. Preschoolers aren't amenable to 6' separation from each other, and the normal use of Grandmas is not safe.

My neighbor has taken in a homeless friend because of the cold weather, snow, and virus, but the friend refuses to stay home during the day and goes all over the city visiting his friends on the street and scrounging for stuff he can sell. The neighbors mom is diabetic and on oxygen.

What are people thinking? Stay home at least until there are enough ventilators to go around.
Posted by: clearwater

Re: Flatten the Curve - 03/17/20 06:58 PM

Emergency powers of the Mayor

"Woodward, under the law, even has the power to stop the sale of gasoline or ďother flammable liquidsĒ except for use in a motor vehicle. She can also order the closure of bars and other establishments that sell alcohol, or just outright ban the sale of alcohol. Woodward has given no indication that such strict orders are part of her plans.

Woodward now has the authority to close any city street, park or other public space.

After she makes an emergency declaration, city law allows the mayor to order any business establishment ďor other places of public assemblage to close.Ē The order can be in effect indefinitely."
https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2020/mar/17/spokane-county-city-of-spokane-declare-emergencies/