Ripple Effects of Disasters

A Disaster isn't necessarily over when it is over.

On Dec 4, 2017, the Thomas Fire erupted in Southern California, eventually burning hilly terrain of more than 281,000 acres,damaging the communities of Ventura, Montecito,and Santa Barbara. Fortunately, while there was widespread property destruction, only two people died - one in an auto accident fleeing from the fire.

January 8 considerable rain fell on the burnt hills above these communities, triggering massive mud flows which slammed into Montecito. The current death toll stands at 21, with two more still missing. Preparations were made for the flooding, but they were overwhelmed. Highway 101 was closed and will open on Monday. Traffic was diverted to Cal Highway 166, a narrow, twisting two lane road offering a round about access to Santa Barbara. Two days ago, there was a fatal collision on that road, a direct consequence of the heavy traffic. Use of that road is not now advised....

Problems with disasters don't cease just because the main event has ended...Cleanup can be especially dangerous.

Yes, wise words. Sometimes the first punch sets up the second punch, which hits a lot harder. The fast moving emergency becomes the slow, agonizing march back.

The outrageous fire seasons we've had up here in the last two years echo the point: Fort McMurray is still rebuilding, with municipal officials overwhelmed for a whole year in issuing cleanup, demolition, and building permits. No doubt BC is in the same boat, or will be, as systems try to recover to normalcy.

It seems we humans set up shop in the areas that are generally much more advantageous to us ... except for the attendant natural risks, which can and will hit us very hard. Coastlines, dense forests, earthquake zones, flood plains, volcanoes ...

The other ripple effect is more prosaic -- insurance.

All of these events cost the insurance system almost unimaginable amounts of money. Backstopping by government is, I guess, the last halt line. But it makes one wonder how much the insurance system can take before it breaks. That would be a meltdown with consequences orders of magnitude larger than a rogue nuke.

Ripple effects are one of the reasons that "worst case scenarios" seldom are. Its hard to know what the 2nd, 3rd and 4th level effects are...

Most people "moved on" after the news reports of the fires. I'm talking about people who were not directly affected.

I just happened to stumble across some videos of the mud flows a few days ago. Wow! Those events were a lot bigger than people realized, I think. Hope that you were OK.

We were thankfully far from the disastrous mud flows. They are still searching for the bodies of two of the victims. All my wife and I have to do is try and get the ash off of our sidewalk and patio - pretty trivial to what some folks are facing....

Hurricanes are the prime example of this situation. It blows through and yet the worst is to come: loads of flooding from upstream; excessive power outages; civil unrest and people being bad neighbors; waste water treatment issue; rubbish and rumble container; removal, search, rescue, and recovery; and the requisite disease outbreaks.

"The nationwide total death toll from Hurricane Andrew was 26, with another 40 people dying as an indirect result of the storm. In Florida, 15 died directly from the hurricane and another 29 died indirectly."

Mostly auto accidents and down power lines. Be careful during cleanup!

We are down the road from those mud flows and just had a bit of minor disruption, but it is always interesting to leave home at 2AM - didn't even have time to shave or shine my shoes!

Montecito is now dealing with black mold and other promoters of disease as the cleanup continues. I believe two bodies are still unrecovered - very bad!